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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III


Baroclinic Zone

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I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through.

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:08 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

NAM at 00z just a touch warmer. but there appears to be more hang back precip comparing the 00z run to the 18z run for the 00z Friday window

Yeah it has >0.25" between 00z and 03z from a ORH-HFD line south and east.

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:09 AM, Ginx said:

I realize we get a lot of flak here for our posting style and some really do not understand our passion. It's not just about the actual snow, it's the chase too. Sort of like chasing that girl you saw and got tingles thinking about, you finally talk, hold hands, kiss and then consummate, the entire process is fun. Just like love sometimes it is from afar and you never even get to hold her hand but you still dream of it, other times there is nothing after the hand holding, so close yet so far, frustrating. When you do run the gamut there is nothing better. Last Jan I made love to my fantasy girl twice in a month and the entire process could not have been more pleasurable. I am a weenie through and through.

It's not the kill,

It's the thrill of the chase

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:08 AM, HubbDave said:

Tip being succinct means fewer than 500 words

Neat that in 20 hours it might be snowing here

Probably 22

Fecetious (sp?)

  On 10/27/2011 at 2:08 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

NAM at 00z just a touch warmer. but there appears to be more hang back precip comparing the 00z run to the 18z run for the 00z Friday window

It's interesting---850 line seems to come down pretty quick once it hits Mass. Not sure what's going on at the surface yet, but seems like some decent qpf after it passes through, particularly in the expected places.

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:15 AM, messenger said:

Actually just looking at the rough maps I think everyone down to near the canal would at least see snow falling at some point. I'd be on the wet edge, we may see some snow falling here but the water is still so warm.

I wonder if interior SE MA, MQE, North Easton, Sharon etc get smoked pretty good?

Wrentham Wrecker?

Attleboro Aniahlator?

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:15 AM, weatherwiz said:

But wouldn't the insane amount of dry air in the mid levels be a killer?

Only if that is where the lift is...most of the intense lift is below the dry layer. You want good lift in saturated layer to get heavy precip...since this is kind of anafrontal event, you often get really sloped fronts and the lift can be lower than a normal synoptic setup.

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:17 AM, moneypitmike said:

Maybe help cool the column for moisture coming in later?

Well the bulk of the moisture will already be ongoing...the drier air is working in as the heaviest precip is over the area.

Kind of seems like the mid level dry air works in once some locations finally become cold enough to flip.

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  On 10/27/2011 at 2:18 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Only if that is where the lift is...most of the intense lift is below the dry layer. You want good lift in saturated layer to get heavy precip...since this is kind of anafrontal event, you often get really sloped fronts and the lift can be lower than a normal synoptic setup.

I see, makes sense. Thanks.

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