First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[Ginx snewx]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:00 PM, NJwinter23 said:

12z Euro through 36... Just in time with the first wave to throw 0.25-0.50 on the cold side between 30-36 hrs from the Catskills through southern/central New England..850 0c line Allentown to Willimantic to Cape Cod... -4c line Scranton to Pittsfield to Portsmouth

Willli !! Kev just sent his LToP through his office roof.

[CoastalWx]

I think this euro run might be farther west for the weekend low, but preliminary guess based on H5.

[powderfreak]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:00 PM, NJwinter23 said:

12z Euro through 36... Just in time with the first wave to throw 0.25-0.50 on the cold side between 30-36 hrs from the Catskills through southern/central New England..850 0c line Allentown to Willimantic to Cape Cod... -4c line Scranton to Pittsfield to Portsmouth...Id say a general 1"-maybe 3" in the high spots

A general 1" with up to 3" high terrain seems to be what this event has looked like for days. Sounds like the EC keeps the status quo.

[NJwinter23]

Now I dont get the vorticity maps for the euro on Stormvista, but just looking at the 500mb heights, I see a trough going negatively tilted in the Tennessee valley. this looks good...1012 mb surface low off NC inverting west towards the Chessapeake...this should be at least a scraper in future frames Id guess

[dryslot]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

I think this euro run might be farther west for the weekend low, but preliminary guess based on H5.

Precip back in the western carolinsa's and over the delmarva

[Mr Torchey]

[dryslot]

Looks like we are going to get a bomb with storm 2, Going to have to see where it goes from here

[Boston-winter08]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:08 PM, Dryslot said:

Looks like we are going to get a bomb with storm 2

lol...gettin inside the euro's money range too

[CoastalWx]

850s cool to -4C all the way to ACK. LOL.

[N. OF PIKE]

need more neg tiilt to get low up to BM?

[CoastalWx]

It's a scraper, but nrn edge of CCB gets to maybe I-90 or so at hr 84.

[moneypitmike]

The new p/c is out and it shows accumulations (for Thursday anyway--we'll have to wait for tomorrow night).

Edit: just realized the pic is illegible. It shows 1-2" tomorrow. No reference to Tomorrow night's accum.

42.0/40

[dryslot]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:09 PM, Boston-winter08 said:

lol...gettin inside the euro's money range too

Looks like it may track just SE of the BM

[CoastalWx]

Small step in the right direction, but not bad.

[Boston-winter08]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's a scraper, but nrn edge of CCB gets to maybe I-90 or so at hr 84.

Does it move north then due east b/c of the kicker (getting srn Jersey good), as GEFS implied?

[dryslot]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:13 PM, Boston-winter08 said:

Does it move north then due east b/c of the kicker (getting srn Jersey good), as GEFS implied?

No more ENE

[moneypitmike]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:12 PM, Dryslot said:

Looks like it may track just SE of the BM

Nice run for ORH and east?? Congrats.

Give me a nice canal cutter.

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:13 PM, Boston-winter08 said:

Does it move north then due east b/c of the kicker (getting srn Jersey good), as GEFS implied?

The kicker to the west is weaker and the PV up north relaxes enough for this to get closer. That's the difference. You can tell this would get much closer if each of these happened to a small extent.

[Mr Torchey]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

The kicker to the west is weaker and the PV up north relaxes enough for this to get closer. That's the difference. You can tell this would get much closer if each of these happened to a small extent.

Its damn cold too, just want to see some flakes and I will be happy.

[CoastalWx]

At least the trends reversed for the weekend storm. That CCB is within 30-50 miles from hitting ORH east really hard.

[NJwinter23]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:13 PM, Boston-winter08 said:

Does it move north then due east b/c of the kicker (getting srn Jersey good), as GEFS implied?

It definitely shoots east as a result of the kicker/fast flow...still very close though and nice to see a potent shortwave on this run...

is this shortwave being sampled on shore yet or is it still in the Pacific?

[CoastalWx]

Funny thing is that se mass has a better shot of seeing snow than I do, thanks to dynamics verbatim.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

At least the trends reversed for the weekend storm. That CCB is within 30-50 miles from hitting ORH east really hard.

So, I would assume better for my area but with BL temp. issues? Or would this dynamically cool the column so it's like a 34-35F snow?

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:17 PM, forkyfork said:

did you see the gfes?

Yea I saw them. It's still a fine line with this storm. I mean you have to juggle the temps, strength of s/w, the kicker, what's going on north of NNE...etc. It makes a blockbuster solution questionable, but another 40 miles, and many are saying...what Thursday snow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

Funny thing is that se mass has a better shot of seeing snow than I do, thanks to dynamics verbatim.

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:19 PM, ETauntonMA said:

So, I would assume better for my area but with BL temp. issues? Or would this dynamically cool the column so it's like a 34-35F snow?

Tkx.

[TheCloser24]

Man I hope by Friday we get a major snowstorm here in Interior New England. One can always hope.

[forkyfork]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yea I saw them. It's still a fine line with this storm. I mean you have to juggle the temps, strength of s/w, the kicker, what's going on north of NNE...etc. It makes a blockbuster solution questionable, but another 40 miles, and many are saying...what Thursday snow.

aren't la ninas fun

[Modfan]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:02 PM, Ginx said:

Willli !! Kev just sent his LToP through his office roof.

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/26/2011 at 6:21 PM, TheCloser24 said:

Man I hope by Friday we get a major snowstorm here in Interior New England. One can always hope.

Well just beware hoping for major snow in October is setting yourself up for a letdown. Be happy if you see a couple of inches on Thursday night. It's good to try and be realistic until the data tells you to weenie out.

[TheCloser24]

I'm used to be letting down I lived in southeast VA for 10 years, where many forecasted snowstorms turn out to be rainstorm thanks to the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean.