member snowfall maps/discussion

[weatherwiz]

So the discussion threads don't get clogged with maps and such just post yours here if you're doing one and if anyone has questions/compliments/complaints or whatever they won't derail the main threads and it can be done here.

[weatherwiz]

We only may be a little over a month into Autumn but we're driving hard into winter mode as a developing storm system will have the potential to produce snow across much of New England and even has the potential to produce accumulating snowfall in spots. This will not be a blockbuster storm of any sort or produce moderate or significant snowfall accumulations but it's extremely important to understand the importance of early season snowfall. Even snowfall totals of 2-3'' of snow can end up producing a good deal of damage to trees, especially if the snow is west/heavy in nature. This time of year many trees still have leaves on them which adds weight to the limbs and trees and applying more weight via the accumulating snow could lead to numerous downed limbs.

Over the next few days an Arctic Cold Front will be sagging south and southeastward from Canada. Behind this front lays a much colder and drier airmass. As the front approaches our region a wave of low pressure will be developing along the front across the Ohio Valley and ride along the boundary (front). Some computer model guidance is suggesting that this front will sag south through the region and stall somewhere, either right across far southern New England or just off the coast. What this would do is begin transporting colder air into the region, first aloft then slowly at the surface. As the wave of low pressure develops which would be just south of southern New England and deepens somewhat if the low tracks to the southeast of the region this would further allow for colder air to not only advect in aloft but at the surface as well.

Precipitation will begin sometime Thursday morning or perhaps early afternoon, although widely isolated to scattered showers will be around beginning Wednesday night. Temperatures at the onset of the event will be warm enough to support all rain to begin. However, as Thursday goes along and the colder air begins to drain in the precipitation will begin to change over to snow. This will first occur across the higher elevations at areas above 1000' then as the colder air begins to drain down to the surface the snow levels will begin to drop as well.

At this time there continues to be some uncertainties within the computer forecast model guidance which will have major implications on what unfolds. The big questions at this time are how far north will the surface low be? This is important b/c the further north the surface low is and tracks the further north the warmer air at the surface and aloft will be. This would certainly cut snowfall potential across areas such as CT/LI and portions of MA as well. On the other hand this would also increase snowfall potential and snowfall totals across central and northern New England as the heavier shield of precipitation will also be drawn further northward. If the surface low develops and tracks on a more southerly course this would be colder air sagging further southward into places such as CT/RI and SE MA meaning better snow and better chance for some accumulating snowfall. This would also decrease snowfall potential and accumulations across all of northern New England and a portion of central New England as well. Another issue to contend with is will the cold air drain into the region in time before the heaviest of the precipitation moves east of the region?

With this said with the consensus right now this is what I think will transpire. It's extremely important to understand that higher elevation areas...mainly above 1000-1200' will have a much better potential to receive the higher end of these snowfall totals, while elevations below these levels will likely see more towards the lower end of these totals.

[N. OF PIKE]

We only may be a little over a month into Autumn but we're driving hard into winter mode as a developing storm system will have the potential to produce snow across much of New England and even has the potential to produce accumulating snowfall in spots. This will not be a blockbuster storm of any sort or produce moderate or significant snowfall accumulations but it's extremely important to understand the importance of early season snowfall. Even snowfall totals of 2-3'' of snow can end up producing a good deal of damage to trees, especially if the snow is west/heavy in nature. This time of year many trees still have leaves on them which adds weight to the limbs and trees and applying more weight via the accumulating snow could lead to numerous downed limbs.

Over the next few days an Arctic Cold Front will be sagging south and southeastward from Canada. Behind this front lays a much colder and drier airmass. As the front approaches our region a wave of low pressure will be developing along the front across the Ohio Valley and ride along the boundary (front). Some computer model guidance is suggesting that this front will sag south through the region and stall somewhere, either right across far southern New England or just off the coast. What this would do is begin transporting colder air into the region, first aloft then slowly at the surface. As the wave of low pressure develops which would be just south of southern New England and deepens somewhat if the low tracks to the southeast of the region this would further allow for colder air to not only advect in aloft but at the surface as well.

Precipitation will begin sometime Thursday morning or perhaps early afternoon, although widely isolated to scattered showers will be around beginning Wednesday night. Temperatures at the onset of the event will be warm enough to support all rain to begin. However, as Thursday goes along and the colder air begins to drain in the precipitation will begin to change over to snow. This will first occur across the higher elevations at areas above 1000' then as the colder air begins to drain down to the surface the snow levels will begin to drop as well.

At this time there continues to be some uncertainties within the computer forecast model guidance which will have major implications on what unfolds. The big questions at this time are how far north will the surface low be? This is important b/c the further north the surface low is and tracks the further north the warmer air at the surface and aloft will be. This would certainly cut snowfall potential across areas such as CT/LI and portions of MA as well. On the other hand this would also increase snowfall potential and snowfall totals across central and northern New England as the heavier shield of precipitation will also be drawn further northward. If the surface low develops and tracks on a more southerly course this would be colder air sagging further southward into places such as CT/RI and SE MA meaning better snow and better chance for some accumulating snowfall. This would also decrease snowfall potential and accumulations across all of northern New England and a portion of central New England as well. Another issue to contend with is will the cold air drain into the region in time before the heaviest of the precipitation moves east of the region?

With this said with the consensus right now this is what I think will transpire. It's extremely important to understand that higher elevation areas...mainly above 1000-1200' will have a much better potential to receive the higher end of these snowfall totals, while elevations below these levels will likely see more towards the lower end of these totals.

thanks for sharing wiz

well done

now for the euro

[weatherwiz]

thanks for sharing wiz

well done

now for the euro

Thanks!

The Euro will come in warmer and show no snow for lots of the lower lying areas

[weatherwiz]

Update:

Some changes have been made since the last forecast. Now that we are much closer to the event we are beginning to see a bit more in the way of model consistency and model agreement. While there are still some differences within some of the computer forecast models, mainly with the level and strength of the cold air at the surface. Given the time of year and expected track/strength of the system it appears as if elevations lower than 1000' will have a difficult time accumulating much snowfall as boundary layer temps will just be a bit too warm. Elevations above 1000' and especially above 1200' will have a much better chance of seeing accumulating snowfall and this is where a few inches of snowfall will likely occur. While this may not sound like a great deal this time of year even snowfall totals of this magnitude can cause some issues. The snow may be fairly wet in nature making it heavier than normal and many trees still have leaves on them. This could make it easier for limbs to fall causing tree damage and perhaps power outages. Given the latest trends this is what I expect:

[ma blizzard]

red outlined areas have best shot of spot 4"-5" amount, 1200' + orh hills / sw nh, 1500'-2000'+ berkshires.

[weatherwiz]

Final Call

[weathafella]

Final Call

<img src="http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o95/weatherwiz/FinalcallsnowfallmapOctober27ththroughOctober28th.jpg" />

A one month lead time snow call.

[weathafella]

Incidentally Paul.....it's a good forecast presuming you mean a month earlier.

[weatherwiz]

A one month lead time snow call.

Incidentally Paul.....it's a good forecast presuming you mean a month earlier.

Whoops.