phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This might give you some idea to how far west the models have backed this system up. the nam is the most extreme example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was there also, but I was a history major and in a school with like 15k students we never would have met. I lived off campus and remember a lot of snow still on the ground when I got to class on Monday morning. Then I took a drive out to this area that I later moved to....and they had a good 12-18 inches around here. I was in my 2nd year at SUNYA in '87....I remember Mike Landin "joking" a bit as the NGM came in ...hinting at the possibility of a bit of a mix, the evening before the October surprise, about if anyone was going to put a "1" in the snowfall box of our forecast contest......if I recall one or two folks did....everyone else put in the almost obligatory "0"...... 6+" later, we realized just how poor our "go to " model was!! (vs. the LFM) Good memories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 The 0Z NAM just ticked back east a little .... though still looks like 1" at KALB. Very rapid drop off as you head up the Northway.... Looks like a 12/26/10 type situation verbatim. But that's one model.... This might give you some idea to how far west the models have backed this system up. the nam is the most extreme example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The 0Z NAM just ticked back east a little .... though still looks like 1" at KALB. Very rapid drop off as you head up the Northway.... Looks like a 12/26/10 type situation verbatim. But that's one model.... Yep... the tick eastward is not totally unexpected given the concerns with all the convection going on down in Florida. I posted a graphic on the NYC thread about how latent heat release in this Florida Thunderstorm cluster will likely cause a bit of weakening of the southern stream shortwave which in turn produces a weaker phase. Its not a huge change, but something that is noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Things not looking great for upstate NY as NAM and GFS have shifted east. I'm sticking with 1-3 in Ithaca, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was in my 2nd year at SUNYA in '87....I remember Mike Landin "joking" a bit as the NGM came in ...hinting at the possibility of a bit of a mix, the evening before the October surprise, about if anyone was going to put a "1" in the snowfall box of our forecast contest......if I recall one or two folks did....everyone else put in the almost obligatory "0"...... 6+" later, we realized just how poor our "go to " model was!! (vs. the LFM) Good memories! Oh Wow LEK, I was so suprised to hear that you went to UAlbany! I've been reading your thoughts and posts for years and to think you graduated from the same college! Never knew that! Cool! Meanwhile, can't believe we're at 4 - 8 inches. I'm really considering running out and getting some "non power dependent" food to munch on. This house never is stocked properly :/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Fortunately our leaves are history here in Knox so the 6-8 inches etc. won't cause any problems.... 29 here now... Oh Wow LEK, I was so suprised to hear that you went to UAlbany! I've been reading your thoughts and posts for years and to think you graduated from the same college! Never knew that! Cool! Meanwhile, can't believe we're at 4 - 8 inches. I'm really considering running out and getting some "non power dependent" food to munch on. This house never is stocked properly :/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yea the trends have not been our friends tonight for locations on the edge of the precipitation shield... of course the even is getting close to nowcasting, so we will soon find out just how well the models are verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was in my 2nd year at SUNYA in '87....I remember Mike Landin "joking" a bit as the NGM came in ...hinting at the possibility of a bit of a mix, the evening before the October surprise, about if anyone was going to put a "1" in the snowfall box of our forecast contest......if I recall one or two folks did....everyone else put in the almost obligatory "0"...... 6+" later, we realized just how poor our "go to " model was!! (vs. the LFM) Good memories! My Alma Mater as well! Was he teaching back then already or still a grad student? He taught our forecasting and severe weather classes, and I believe we were the last class to graduate before he began working only part time (semi-adjunct/semi-retired). He really was an awesome professor and a great forecaster. ALSO.... While I don't remember the '87 snowstorm (I was 1 year old), my parents sure do! We were living in the higher elevations of eastern Dutchess county at the time, and my parents have a couple old pictures to prove we got a solid 10" or so. We were without power for a week! This might give you some idea to how far west the models have backed this system up. the nam is the most extreme example. Wow, that is pretty extreme. As many have already mentioned, just like the Boxing Day storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Things are still dry here in Ithaca; the precip is having a hard time getting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My Alma Mater as well! Was he teaching back then already or still a grad student? He taught our forecasting and severe weather classes, and I believe we were the last class to graduate before he began working only part time (semi-adjunct/semi-retired). He really was an awesome professor and a great forecaster. ALSO.... While I don't remember the '87 snowstorm (I was 1 year old), my parents sure do! We were living in the higher elevations of eastern Dutchess county at the time, and my parents have a couple old pictures to prove we got a solid 10" or so. We were without power for a week! Wow, that is pretty extreme. As many have already mentioned, just like the Boxing Day storm! We were in the first graduating class that didn't have Landin, so you must have been a SR when I was a JR, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My Alma Mater as well! Was he teaching back then already or still a grad student? He taught our forecasting and severe weather classes, and I believe we were the last class to graduate before he began working only part time (semi-adjunct/semi-retired). He really was an awesome professor and a great forecaster. ALSO.... While I don't remember the '87 snowstorm (I was 1 year old), my parents sure do! We were living in the higher elevations of eastern Dutchess county at the time, and my parents have a couple old pictures to prove we got a solid 10" or so. We were without power for a week! Wow, that is pretty extreme. As many have already mentioned, just like the Boxing Day storm! He was already teaching some intro synoptic forecasting classes. He had no gray hair back then! Great weather enthusiast as well. My favorite of all was Lance....his confident demeaner just demanded respect, without any trace of arrogance, which was encountered at times with others. CNY will wait our turn....leaden skies...looks like snow....but to no avail.....so I guess I'll go give my lawn another cut!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He was already teaching some intro synoptic forecasting classes. He had no gray hair back then! Great weather enthusiast as well. My favorite of all was Lance....his confident demeaner just demanded respect, without any trace of arrogance, which was encountered at times with others. CNY will wait our turn....leaden skies...looks like snow....but to no avail.....so I guess I'll go give my lawn another cut!! He's a body of knowledge that in one class can supersaturate your brain to maximum capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 He's a body of knowledge that in one class can supersaturate your brain to maximum capacity. And not just in meteorology!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 And not just in meteorology!! True! Still dry here in Albany. Waiting on some snowfalkes to fall here. That dry slot on vw is incredible. Wondering if CD area will end up missing out on the snow potential here. I ran to target last minute to get some food I can eat without having power to cook anything. Hope it doesn't go to waste or I'll end up eating the whole big thing of Nutella again for no reason after Irene spared our area of loosing power, LOL. I know the BL was too dry earlier, however wondering how long it will be before it mixes out. Seems that some snow may be approaching and falling within the hour. The guys at NWS in their AFD seem to think we're still in the cards for a few inches here. Can't believe how fast trees are coming down and consquently loosing power out in NJ/CT/NYC allready. History in the making. I hate going to work during these types of events. I just wanna stalk the forums all day and night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The first flakes just started flying here! 37F, let it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yup... flakes have justs started here as well... still pretty light at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing steadily here for 20 minutes. Sticking right from the first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I didn't think Landin was that old...A lot of my old prof's at SUNYA won't retire until they are dragged out it seems. One guy is 82 and still teaching and several in their later 60's to 70's now. There is a website called Rate your Professor (or something like that) and I browsed it one day and found lots of "interesting" reviews on there. Oh it just started snowing here ... -SN and 33F. We were in the first graduating class that didn't have Landin, so you must have been a SR when I was a JR, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: and ripping down here at 850' here in Orange Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing well now. Nice snowfalkes, definitly wet and heavy. So surreal two times in a week snow before halloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing well now. Nice snowfalkes, definitly wet and heavy. So surreal two times in a week snow before halloween! Yea... I wonder how many times we have gotten 2 accumulating snowfall events in October. I imagine that would be a very short list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 My favorite of all was Lance....his confident demeaner just demanded respect, without any trace of arrogance, which was encountered at times with others. Lance was great too! He was my advisor... inspiring and challenging but always fun. Yea... I wonder how many times we have gotten 2 accumulating snowfall events in October. I imagine that would be a very short list! I would imagine it would be a very short list, considering most days in Oct have never received measurable snowfall! http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu:7773/Data/albrefoct.txt I'm also wondering why Albany NWS didn't release a Record Event Report for the record 1.6" on the 27th. Someone's slackin at the wheel. How much snow you up to now Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Really been scraped here for the snow events at Cornell in Ithaca. Just some occasional snow flurries for like 10min today and brief rain/snow on Thursday which did not amount to anything unlike surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Shame that band south of Albany didn't come 20-30 miles further north. Only a couples inches here. Berkshires getting nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Columbia and Dutchess Counties seems to be getting walloped tonight. They're getting 30-35 dBZ snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Shame that band south of Albany didn't come 20-30 miles further north. Only a couples inches here. Berkshires getting nailed! Very similar to the boxing day storm last year.. just this time albany gets screwed even more. Someone in the Berkshires around Peru or Savoy will probably end up with 3' from this storm and over 40" for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 3.5 inches here and still a nice snowfall...but by now it's clear it will never be heavy this far northwest. Sure can't complain for October 29th! 29.3 now...... Very similar to the boxing day storm last year.. just this time albany gets screwed even more. Someone in the Berkshires around Peru or Savoy will probably end up with 3' from this storm and over 40" for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 He was already teaching some intro synoptic forecasting classes. He had no gray hair back then! Great weather enthusiast as well. My favorite of all was Lance....his confident demeaner just demanded respect, without any trace of arrogance, which was encountered at times with others. CNY will wait our turn....leaden skies...looks like snow....but to no avail.....so I guess I'll go give my lawn another cut!! i spent the afternoon raking leaves ......and get a load of this....it clouded over while i was raking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 i spent the afternoon raking leaves ......and get a load of this....it clouded over while i was raking! Well, I'm as happy as hell for the NE folks, and it won't be long, and we'll do this all over again, waiting for the next model run, trying to determine, cutter, hugger, or BM type tracks....and eventually, we all win as some point! (of course, we back here in the GL region have "old reliable" LES to satiate our snow hunger!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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