Shsg Falls Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Looks like even 1" at CLE is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Ok, well already a little over half an inch at 4am, nice little surprise. CLE has been sitting a little above freezing, but the chance of them seeing their first inch seems to be present now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 As of 7 a.m. CLE had 0.9" and CAK had nothing overnight. Maybe 0.5" here in Chagrin Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Looking out the window, maybe a half inch at best. Not sure if more will fall during the day and if what falls during the day will actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Picked up .5 last night. Sun is out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Looks like lake and geauga have a le advisory now for up to 5 in tonight. I'm right on the border , so hope that does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Columbus is now at the 12th latest date for its first measurable snowfall. If nothing falls through the 10th, it will drop to 9th. Here are the 10 latest 1st measurable snowfalls: 1928-29:January 2nd 1918-19:December 25th 2001-02:December 24th 1896-97:December 22nd 2009-10:December 18th 1878-79:December 17th 1998-99:December 16th 1946-47:December 16th 1923-24:December 13th 1944-45:December 11th And their corresponding following winters: 1928-29 Mean: 30.1 Snowfall: 21.1" 1918-19 Mean: 35.4 Snowfall: 3.2" 2001-02 Mean: 36.6 Snowfall: 10.1" 1896-97 Mean: 31.7 Snowfall: 10.3" 2009-10 Mean: 28.3" Snowfall: 48.5" 1878-79 Mean: 26.9 Snowfall: 18.9" 1998-99 Mean: 35.4 Snowfall: 40.4" 1946-47 Mean: 32.3 Snowfall: 13.5" 1923-24 Mean: 32.8 Snowfall: 12.5" 1944-45 Mean: 28.1 Snowfall: 13.1" Not encouraging on the snowfall front, with only 2 out 10 having above normal snowfall. All the rest were well below. It was slightly better for cold, with 4 of the 10 being cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 As of 7 a.m. CLE had 0.9" and CAK had nothing overnight. Maybe 0.5" here in Chagrin Falls. Well the snow is already gone. With less than an inch at CLE, up for a technical debate whether any snow that falls later tonight would be considered first inch as it would be from separate events each starting with bare ground. Looks like the snow in the BUF area was not as heavy as anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 0.8" here as of 630am, which is mostly gone now. A few passing flurries since I woke back up at noon, not much more. We may see a burst when the surface trough comes through and the winds shift, so am patiently awaiting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 While I'm thinking about it, can anyone else think of an explanation for CLE's headline handling of this event? Issue a winter wx advisory before the synoptic snow starts for a combination of an inch or snow of synoptic snow followed by a few inches of lake effect. Then, when the synoptic snow lives up to exact expectations and lightens up, cancel the winter wx advisory and replace it with a lake effect snow advisory for the exact same forecast scenario the winter wx advisory was issued for. Wouldn't sticking with one headline, be it lake effect related or winter weather related for the whole event make ten times more sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 While I'm thinking about it, can anyone else think of an explanation for CLE's headline handling of this event? Issue a winter wx advisory before the synoptic snow starts for a combination of an inch or snow of synoptic snow followed by a few inches of lake effect. Then, when the synoptic snow lives up to exact expectations and lightens up, cancel the winter wx advisory and replace it with a lake effect snow advisory for the exact same forecast scenario the winter wx advisory was issued for. Wouldn't sticking with one headline, be it lake effect related or winter weather related for the whole event make ten times more sense? You'd think, but I think it has more to do with shift changes. New crew comes in and cleans up the forecasts / warnings based on their thinkings. I doubt that the current advisory will even verify and wouldn't be surprised if they drop it with afternoon package. The BUF WRF models toss 2 or 3 inches for the true snow belt later. Nothing to write home about. I hope CLE stays snow free the rest of the day, might as well push the first official inch farther back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You'd think, but I think it has more to do with shift changes. New crew comes in and cleans up the forecasts / warnings based on their thinkings. I doubt that the current advisory will even verify and wouldn't be surprised if they drop it with afternoon package. The BUF WRF models toss 2 or 3 inches for the true snow belt later. Nothing to write home about. I hope CLE stays snow free the rest of the day, might as well push the first official inch farther back. I could understand them changing the headline type if they really re-did everything and made major forecast changes...but they kept the same counties and more or less the same snow amounts. Perhaps the previous forecaster expected it to snow non-stop, but now there is a break and most of the snow has melted, so there is some justification to re-doing headlines a little. It's not a big deal, but I could see how it could cause confusion. The current advisory doesn't kick back in until 4pm, so we will see what happens over the next few hours. I think there will be a few hours of moderate to heavy lake effect, so some areas may get close to 4" new...we'll see. Back up to a solid flizzard here for the time...just about all the snow is gone, was nice and white earlier. We'll see if Hopkins is far enough north to get some lake enhancement when the trough comes through and swings the winds around. That will be close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 LES is struggling upstream. Hopefully CLE takes a look at that because that same air will move into the area. Not a good sign for things to come. Any bets on how many 6"+ storms we see this Winter? My guess would no more than 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 LES is struggling upstream. Hopefully CLE takes a look at that because that same air will move into the area. Not a good sign for things to come. Any bets on how many 6"+ storms we see this Winter? My guess would no more than 2. It's december 9, and the coldest temp this season is a balmy 27! I'll say none, I think CLE had none in the 2009/2010 season unless you tossed in a 3 day LES outbreak. Radar starting to fire up, but this won't be in my neck of the woods and probably not worth a Saturday drive to Chardon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's december 9, and the coldest temp this season is a balmy 27! I'll say none, I think CLE had none in the 2009/2010 season unless you tossed in a 3 day LES outbreak. Radar starting to fire up, but this won't be in my neck of the woods and probably not worth a Saturday drive to Chardon. Yeah, I'm starting to get down on this winter considering some of the outlooks. Don S is usually spot on with his long range thoughts and it doesn't sound good. lol... probably not worth the drive unless you want to head up to WNY. We'll see what happens come sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It has been snowing steadily (although lightly) since about 2pm, looks like it is finally trying to stick again. Visibility is down to around 2 miles based on the tree-line about a mile away from me, that I won't be able to see soon due to it being dark. Will only take a solid dusting to push me over 1" for the event here (I'm counting it as one in my tally, even though the AM snow melted) and it looks like another hour or so of synoptic snow before we are left at the mercy of any lake effect that can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Yeah, I'm starting to get down on this winter considering some of the outlooks. Don S is usually spot on with his long range thoughts and it doesn't sound good. lol... probably not worth the drive unless you want to head up to WNY. We'll see what happens come sunrise tomorrow. Eh. BUF had barely an inch today, with some afternoon melting. I bet some of the inland areas just at the border get 5" or so, definitely not worth a drive. It has been snowing steadily (although lightly) since about 2pm, looks like it is finally trying to stick again. Visibility is down to around 2 miles based on the tree-line about a mile away from me, that I won't be able to see soon due to it being dark. Will only take a solid dusting to push me over 1" for the event here (I'm counting it as one in my tally, even though the AM snow melted) and it looks like another hour or so of synoptic snow before we are left at the mercy of any lake effect that can develop. There was a light burst downtown with the passing front just before rush hour, melted on contact with surface temps around 36. Latest BUF WRF paints up to 3" from over Eastern Cuyahoga through Geauga. CLE at 0.9" for the day, so still could make an inch, but it would be from two separate events at least 12 hours apart and not an actual inch on the ground at one time, so for all practical purposes the first official real inch is still out in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Eh. BUF had barely an inch today, with some afternoon melting. I bet some of the inland areas just at the border get 5" or so, definitely not worth a drive. There was a light burst downtown with the passing front just before rush hour, melted on contact with surface temps around 36. Latest BUF WRF paints up to 3" from over Eastern Cuyahoga through Geauga. CLE at 0.9" for the day, so still could make an inch, but it would be from two separate events at least 12 hours apart and not an actual inch on the ground at one time, so for all practical purposes the first official real inch is still out in la la land. What is the official criteria for a one inch snow? One inch in a day like we are knocking on now, or one inch from one event, with less than 12 hours of separation between snow? The HRRR has been breaking out decent lake effect for the past several runs by 2-3z. There has clearly been some enhancement up along I-90, but definitely no signs on the current radar of anything bubbling up over the lake. My guess is the last band of mid level moisture over the western end of the lake will help to seed some lake effect between like 8-10pm, after that is uncertain. 850mb temps will drop several degrees between now and midnight and there is some lake effect (albeit weak) coming off of Lake Michigan. I think 1-3" from eastern Cuyahoga county points east seems reasonable. There may be a localized 4" amount but bands will probably be somewhat transient and we will really loose moisture after midnight above about 850mb. Definitely a marginal advisory. Snow has been trying to stick here but has more or less been melting on contact as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 What is the official criteria for a one inch snow? One inch in a day like we are knocking on now, or one inch from one event, with less than 12 hours of separation between snow? The HRRR has been breaking out decent lake effect for the past several runs by 2-3z. There has clearly been some enhancement up along I-90, but definitely no signs on the current radar of anything bubbling up over the lake. My guess is the last band of mid level moisture over the western end of the lake will help to seed some lake effect between like 8-10pm, after that is uncertain. 850mb temps will drop several degrees between now and midnight and there is some lake effect (albeit weak) coming off of Lake Michigan. I think 1-3" from eastern Cuyahoga county points east seems reasonable. There may be a localized 4" amount but bands will probably be somewhat transient and we will really loose moisture after midnight above about 850mb. Definitely a marginal advisory. Snow has been trying to stick here but has more or less been melting on contact as well. Here in Chagrin Falls we had a reasonable burst of snow around 4pm or so for an hour or two but it's been dead since. We've got a dusting on the ground but that's about it. Yawn so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Here in Chagrin Falls we had a reasonable burst of snow around 4pm or so for an hour or two but it's been dead since. We've got a dusting on the ground but that's about it. Yawn so far. I'm waiting for the stratus to actually break up before saying this event is done for sure...but the chance for something marginal doesn't even look good. Not completely shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Light / moderate snow finally started here at the border of gates mills and mayfield. Hopefully it lasts a litte while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Light / moderate snow finally started here at the border of gates mills and mayfield. Hopefully it lasts a litte while We did not get any more accumulating snow after the event ended yesterday around 5:30 - 6:00pm here. It flurried on and off until I went to bed around midnight. Even the 1" at the low end of the forecast was about 4x more than we received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 No shock last night, the advisories were not necessary. 3rd latest first inch is a lock now, with 2nd place in sight if we can make it snow free til next weekend. Feels like perpetual October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 No shock last night, the advisories were not necessary. 3rd latest first inch is a lock now, with 2nd place in sight if we can make it snow free til next weekend. Feels like perpetual October. Happy October to all my Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friends. Just trying to make you guys feel jealous. We spent 6 straight days below freezing, and we had 9.7 in October, 10.6 in November, and probably 7-9" in December (my best estimation is 9.6" in my yard in December.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 No shock last night, the advisories were not necessary. 3rd latest first inch is a lock now, with 2nd place in sight if we can make it snow free til next weekend. Feels like perpetual October. After the 150" of snow I got in Chagrin Falls last winter, and a December which had sunshine for 1/2 of 1 day in the entire month, I welcome these SSW winds with open arms. I saw the clouds over Lake Erie while at the West Side Market today. You can keep them there! This is usually our cloudiest month of the year, and even though it is cold I love the sunshine. We've already had enough precipitation this year. The 10-day European (operational) shows us in the warm sector on December 20th, but looks like after the storm passes we'll get some cold air with a good NW flow for lake effect. The ensemble mean doesn't show anything of the sort, so confidence isn't too high at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Picked up a heavy dusting from the LES event Friday night. Dry air always wins out. Hopefully we'll have something to track in the near future - say Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Picked up a heavy dusting from the LES event Friday night. Dry air always wins out. Hopefully we'll have something to track in the near future - say Jan or Feb. Western basin is cooling rapidly. This week is a lock to remain snow free and should push us to second latest first inch at CLE. Unfortunately for snow lovers, after tomorrow there are no winters with a poor of a start as this one that ended up above average for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Western basin is cooling rapidly. This week is a lock to remain snow free and should push us to second latest first inch at CLE. Unfortunately for snow lovers, after tomorrow there are no winters with a poor of a start as this one that ended up above average for snow. A lot of wasted potential with the water cooling rapidly. Ironic that we have been snowless yet the lake will in the mid-30's out west soon. I've pretty much written off December. Who knows what will happen the rest of the winter but it would take one hell of rally to turn things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 A lot of wasted potential with the water cooling rapidly. Ironic that we have been snowless yet the lake will in the mid-30's out west soon. I've pretty much written off December. Who knows what will happen the rest of the winter but it would take one hell of rally to turn things around. I'm spending Christmas weekend in Oregon, lock in a storm for CLE ... however I will be going up to Mt. Hood where 2 seasons worth of snow will be on the ground, so at least that will satisfy the snow hunger for the time being. I wouldn't mind a significantly below average snowfall winter as long as we get a few decent storms. I'll take one 12" storm in January over a 5" storm every week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 So I guess this is the northern Ohio thread now ...or the thread to talk about any weather that doesn't directly hit the Columbus/Newark areas. I feel for all the landscaping/plowing companies who are hurting right now. This morning, I noticed several sidewalks and parking lots were salted for nothing more than the typical morning frost that builds up on a clear calm evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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