Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[Trent]

Maybe the wait is over.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO

FRIDAY AND TAP INTO THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE. OTHER ADDED FACTOR IS

ANOTHER SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD BE A GENERAL LIGHT

SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED UP THE LAKE SHORE

AND EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST.

THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

[OHweather]

Maybe the wait is over.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO

FRIDAY AND TAP INTO THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE. OTHER ADDED FACTOR IS

ANOTHER SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD BE A GENERAL LIGHT

SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED UP THE LAKE SHORE

AND EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST.

THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

I'm honestly not seeing what they're seeing. The airmass will be very shallow and very dry by all indications...inversions lowering quickly Friday evening after the front passes and the whole column drying as well. So, I'm not sold on anything...maybe a few inches of fluff out east?

[NEOH]

I'm honestly not seeing what they're seeing. The airmass will be very shallow and very dry by all indications...inversions lowering quickly Friday evening after the front passes and the whole column drying as well. So, I'm not sold on anything...maybe a few inches of fluff out east?

At this point, it appears that HP moves in very quickly so I'm not overly optimistic. 850's would certainly support a significant event but other parameters look poor.

[Trent]

Latest first inch at CLE:

1) jan 6, 1995

2) dec 17, 1998

3) dec 13, 2004

4) dec 10, 1948

5) dec 8, 1961

If any lake effect flow is west or southwest, CLE could easily move into second place. What an awful start to the snow season for the eastern lakes!

[NEOH]

Latest first inch at CLE:

1) jan 6, 1995

2) dec 17, 1998

3) dec 13, 2004

4) dec 10, 1948

5) dec 8, 1961

If any lake effect flow is west or southwest, CLE could easily move into second place. What an awful start to the snow season for the eastern lakes!

The flow starts out WSW'erly then shifts to the West. Still lots of time to work out the details. There is an opportunity for some synoptic snow as well.

Agreed. Miserable start with virtually no change on the horizon accept this weekends cold shot.

[NEOH]

All of the 12z guidance brings the winds from a more WNW'erly direction this weekend. Looks like a solid 12hr window for lake snows. I haven't looked at the other parameters, but -14 to -16 850's should get things fired up... unless there is absolutely no moisture to work with.

Long range didn't look that bad either. Seasonable... not exciting but at least it does not look like a torch.

[OHweather]

All of the 12z guidance brings the winds from a more WNW'erly direction this weekend. Looks like a solid 12hr window for lake snows. I haven't looked at the other parameters, but -14 to -16 850's should get things fired up... unless there is absolutely no moisture to work with.

Long range didn't look that bad either. Seasonable... not exciting but at least it does not look like a torch.

The Euro really does dry things out quickly...

The GFS showed a little more moisture behind the front, but still is bone dry by about 12z Saturday.

I think we will see a period of light synoptic snows Friday afternoon and some lake effect into Friday night, but not sure it will add up to more than a couple inches. Best potential will be up the lake shore over PA, WNY and maybe grazing Ashtabula county Friday as the moist WSW flow develops ahead of the shortwave.

[NEOH]

The Euro really does dry things out quickly...

The GFS showed a little more moisture behind the front, but still is bone dry by about 12z Saturday.

I think we will see a period of light synoptic snows Friday afternoon and some lake effect into Friday night, but not sure it will add up to more than a couple inches. Best potential will be up the lake shore over PA, WNY and maybe grazing Ashtabula county Friday as the moist WSW flow develops ahead of the shortwave.

Ouch regarding the moisture. So this cold spell may do nothing more than cool the lake temps.

[prinsburg_wx]

I'm not sure if this is the right thread but someone asked me to post the ggem images for the thu/fri event for the lakes.

hr 66-84

[jbcmh81]

^{Ohio unofficially breaks the nearly 132-year state precipitation record. The ILN NWS release:}

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

1244 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011

...OHIO STATE YEARLY PRECIPITATION RECORD UNOFFICIALLY BROKEN...

AFTER THE PAST TWO DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A YEAR THAT HAS

SEEN ABNORMALLY HIGH RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE OF OHIO

(PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION)...SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES

HAVE SURPASSED THE RECORD FOR HIGHEST YEARLY PRECIPITATION

TOTAL IN OHIO. THIS RECORD IS 70.82 INCHES...SET IN 1870 AT LITTLE

MOUNTAIN OHIO. THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS OBSERVING SITES WHICH

HAVE SURPASSED THE RECORD AS OF 7 AM ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 6. ALL

THREE LOCATIONS ARE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER STATIONS IN THE

CINCINNATI METRO AREA.

SITE TYPE COUNTY 2011 PRECIPITATION

---- ---- ------ ------------------

CHEVIOT COOP HAMILTON 73.81 INCHES

MIAMITOWN COOP HAMILTON 71.89 INCHES

FERNBANK COOP HAMILTON 70.85 INCHES

OLD RECORD SITE COUNTY PRECIPITATION YEAR

--------------- ------ ------------- ----

LITTLE MOUNTAIN LAKE 70.82 INCHES 1870

THIS DATA SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND UNOFFICIAL. AFTER

THE END OF THE YEAR...A REVIEW PROCESS BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC

DATA CENTER AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGISTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN ORDER TO

OFFICIALLY DECLARE IF A STATE OF OHIO PRECIPITATION RECORD WAS

INDEED BROKEN.

ALSO NOTE...THE OFFICIAL CINCINNATI OBSERVING SITE IS LOCATED AT

THE CINCINNATI-NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN HEBRON

KENTUCKY. THEREFORE EVEN WITH 69.94 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN

2011...THE OFFICIAL CINCINNATI OBSERVATION IS NOT ELIGIBLE FOR THE

OHIO STATE RECORD.

ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF DECEMBER WILL

ONLY ADD TO THESE TOTALS. THE FINAL YEARLY TOTALS WILL BE

PUBLISHED AFTER THE END OF THE YEAR.

It's really been an amazing year. There aren't too many big cities left in the state that aren't near or have not surpassed their own wettest year record. Columbus is 1.55" away from it's all-time wettest.

[Trent]

Even around Cleveland a few local weather stations are close to cracking the 70" mark. Just browsing the wunderground stations, Parma is at 69.66" for the year and will surely crack 70" by the end of the year.

[Shsg Falls]

The Cleveland paper today had a interesting article about the water table and Lake Erie water level this fall/early winter with all the precipitation we've been having. If we continue to get above normal precipitation throughout the winter there could be a lot of flood potential in the Spring.

[NEOH]

The Cleveland paper today had a interesting article about the water table and Lake Erie water level this fall/early winter with all the precipitation we've been having. If we continue to get above normal precipitation throughout the winter there could be a lot of flood potential in the Spring.

Much of lake erie's water comes from the upstream lakes. I'm not sure how wet it has been in those areas so it's impressive to see how much of an effect rainfall has had on the lake level.

[dta1984]

Cle sounding confident about this event Fri-Sat;

THIS PERIOD IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST

OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS

EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEGINNING TONIGHT

AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS ALL STARTS TO COMES TO AN END

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET MAXIMA

TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE

RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET STREAM. A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY

ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF

THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING

ACROSS THE AREA. DEPTH OF COLD AIR WILL BE THERE TO PRODUCE SOME

LIGHT SNOW ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY.

THEN THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT OCCURS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY

AS FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED UP THE LAKE SHORE INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND

NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE TO EXTREME

INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. OTHER FACTOR IS

THE DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY GOES ALL THE WAY UP TO 10K TO 11K FEET

AND THIS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE INVERSION STARTS TO

DROP TO 5K FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT I ANTICIPATE LAKE EFFECT

WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE

WE MAY NEED HEADLINES IN THE NEAR FUTURE SO STAY TUNED.

FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY

INTO SATURDAY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL

STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 20S.

[Trent]

About time! This is going to be a tricky tricky situation to forecast without the CLE radar. Many of these events start out as blanket warnings or advisories that get tweaked once radar confirms where bands have set up or radar trends of band movements.

These early season events can often be whoppers, but dry air can turn them into a dud just as fast.

edit: looks like the CLE radar is back on-line after the dual pol upgrade.

[NEOH]

About time! This is going to be a tricky tricky situation to forecast without the CLE radar. Many of these events start out as blanket warnings or advisories that get tweaked once radar confirms where bands have set up or radar trends of band movements.

These early season events can often be whoppers, but dry air can turn them into a dud just as fast.

edit: looks like the CLE radar is back on-line after the dual pol upgrade.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm just not feeling confident about this. If the models are correct... by the time the winds come around to a favorable direction moisture is very limited, and HP starts moving in. LES has a tendency to do whatever it wants so who knows how this will play out. We very well may see a quick burst of heavy LES before it shuts down.

Good to see the radar is online. Nice timing.

[Shsg Falls]

I hope I'm wrong but I'm just not feeling confident about this. If the models are correct... by the time the winds come around to a favorable direction moisture is very limited, and HP starts moving in. LES has a tendency to do whatever it wants so who knows how this will play out. We very well may see a quick burst of heavy LES before it shuts down.

Good to see the radar is online. Nice timing.

Looks like the NWS may be heading more towards your direction. From the latest CLE AFD:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

GOING DRY ON THURSDAY AS WE ARE WAITING FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS

THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED. ON FRIDAY

THE LAST OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH...GENERALLY 2 INCHES

OR LESS AND THEN SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT

WILL BE A QUICK SHOT FOR THE SNOW BELT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WE COULD GET OVER 6 INCHES BUT NOT IN 12 HOURS. A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SNOW BELT AREAS AS

THE WIND WILL START WEST AND THEN GO NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE

BANDS AROUND. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SHOULD NOT BE A REAL BIG PROBLEM.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY IN THE SNOW

BELT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE THAT MUCH WITH RIDGING AND

DRYING.

[Trent]

Yeah, unfortunately as we head closer to the event, it looks like this may be a miss. The flow is southwest Thursday night into early Friday which will favor a band in Buffalo, but as the wind shifts more westerly, ridging and dry air quickly move in late Friday into Saturday.

That little stripe of snow that the models have been hinting at for someone along a narrow swath of the midwest might produce a little something, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

If the lake effect event doesn't come to fruition for Friday, we really begin to enter record territory for lack of snow. Basically, the same boat as Chicago, which has yet to see any accumulating snow this season.

Ironically, NYC, which had one of its earliest snowstorms in recorded history has yet to have its first freeze. They will probably end up having a top 3 latest freeze on record ... go figure!

[NEOH]

Yeah, unfortunately as we head closer to the event, it looks like this may be a miss. The flow is southwest Thursday night into early Friday which will favor a band in Buffalo, but as the wind shifts more westerly, ridging and dry air quickly move in late Friday into Saturday.

That little stripe of snow that the models have been hinting at for someone along a narrow swath of the midwest might produce a little something, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

If the lake effect event doesn't come to fruition for Friday, we really begin to enter record territory for lack of snow. Basically, the same boat as Chicago, which has yet to see any accumulating snow this season.

Ironically, NYC, which had one of its earliest snowstorms in recorded history has yet to have its first freeze. They will probably end up having a top 3 latest freeze on record ... go figure!

I think there will be a few inches but nothing spectacular.

Places in TN and MS have had more snow than a lot of northern locations. Strange start to winter... and not a lot of light at the end of the tunnel.

[Trent]

I think there will be a few inches but nothing spectacular.

Places in TN and MS have had more snow than a lot of northern locations. Strange start to winter... and not a lot of light at the end of the tunnel.

I'm thinking CLE will be lucky to eek out an inch. This will fall during the day with unimpressive rates. It could be lake enhanced, but as for LES afterwards, unless you are in Conneaut, good luck seeing anything worth shoveling.

[Trent]

The WRF models give 2-3" for the east side with about an inch, inch and a half near the airport. These are over the course of the day tomorrow, so I wouldn't expect much to be on the ground unless there were quick intense bursts of snow.

[dta1984]

What about overnight ? The discussion from clev mentioned a couple in during the day and possibly 2-4 overnight.

[Jonger]

Check out this lake effect in Ontario. Does anyone have a seasonal average for the area of Ontario just downwind of Superior.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WGJ

My snowmobile buddies and I are very close to plopping down $250 for a seasonal trail permit for Ontario. I remember last winter this area had 30-40 inches on the ground for nearly the whole winter.

[NEOH]

The WRF models give 2-3" for the east side with about an inch, inch and a half near the airport. These are over the course of the day tomorrow, so I wouldn't expect much to be on the ground unless there were quick intense bursts of snow.

What WRF do you look at... BUF? I don't think CLE has updated their WRF since last year.

[NEOH]

Check out this lake effect in Ontario. Does anyone have a seasonal average for the area of Ontario just downwind of Superior.

http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WGJ

My snowmobile buddies and I are very close to plopping down $250 for a seasonal trail permit for Ontario. I remember last winter this area had 30-40 inches on the ground for nearly the whole winter.

That's probably a great place if you like to snowmobile. I wouldn't know where to find seasonal snowfall averages up there, but they most likely get a ton of snow... especially with due west LES events.

[OHweather]

Looks like light synoptic snow showers will overspread area late tonight and continue on and off through much of the day tomorrow. There is almost no surface reflection with this shortwave, but there is some mid level moisture to work with and we will be in the right-entrance portion of an upper level jet streak for several hours tomorrow morning:

This will coincide with an area of deep synoptic moisture moving over head. Models are showing modest lift through the snow growth zone for a few hours tomorrow, along with plenty of moisture, so no reason to believe most areas won't see a few hours of light snow:

Most QPF forecast show under .1" of liquid equivalent with the synoptic snows tomorrow, so my guess is most areas will see about a half inch or so of snow with locally a little more. Not a big deal.

As winds shift more westerly tomorrow afternoon the lake effect that will hit Buffalo/WNY tonight-tomorrow AM will certainly shift south and likely clip northeastern Cuyahoga, northern Geauga, Lake and Ashtabula counties late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. It looks like there will be a few hours of deep synoptic moisture, moderate instability and high inversions with a westerly flow tomorrow afternoon, and this 12z NAM forecast Skew-T valid 0z Saturday along the Cleveland lakeshore shows this well:

So, it looks like there will be a few hours of moderate to heavy lake effect for the true primary Snow Belt tomorrow afternoon/evening.

The winds do gradually become more WNW by late evening and cold air aloft will support moderate instability through the night, but the atmosphere will really dry out by about 6z Saturday:

So, what I expect to happen is this:

-Lake effect snow shifts into extreme NE Ohio by mid afternoon Friday. Rates may reach 1" per hour at times in heavier bands. The bands will continue to gradually shift south, but I do expect 2-3" by 7pm over Lake, northern Geauga and Ashtabula counties. Extreme northern and eastern Cuyahoga county will likely see 1-2" as well.

-Bands will start shifting into southern Geauga and Cuyahoga counties through the evening. I expect areas NE of I-77 and I-480 to pick up an additional 1-3" Friday night. I expect the snow showers will be winding down by midnight with just scattered activity left thereafter.

-All snow should be done by noon Saturday over Ohio as ridging will be overhead.

-Potential max is probably around 5" over extreme northern Geauga or Ashtabula county in Ohio. NW PA may locally see more and obviously WNY will see warning criteria snow.

Here is my guess at amounts:

[Shsg Falls]

Per the 18Z GFS, the boundary layer winds stink tomorrow. They veer to the WNW in the evening but

by then the 850 hPa dewpoint plummets and the stratocumulus off the lake should break apart.

[Trent]

Meager at best:

[OHweather]

Meager at best:

At this point, I'd settle for an inch

My guess is CLE doesn't hit an inch and there aren't any other remote chances for at least a week.

[Trent]

At this point, I'd settle for an inch

My guess is CLE doesn't hit an inch and there aren't any other remote chances for at least a week.

Might as well as push the first inch later into record territory. At the least, I should be able to double or triple my seasonal snowfall.