Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[NEOH]

It finally feels like a winter night out here. Still some snow left on the ground. Not sure how much fell imby... maybe an inch at best. Next week bears watching that's for sure. Lot's of potential... longitude may just be our friend this year but time will tell. Surprised there are not many more central OH posters. Are you guys in your secret private chat again?

[wxdudemike]

I like the Euro for next week, although it's not super exciting. I've yet to see it dump more that 1-2 inches. Obviously for a first snow anything would be pretty good, but that's not a huge deal. For some reason the AccuPro maps were painting 6+ inches, but that doesn't go along with the text output or other maps at all so I think they have an error in their calculations or something. It was spitting out accumulating snow with 850s over 5C and thicknesses around 550dm

[Trent]

Some GFS/Euro runs were hinting at 850mb temps of colder than -15C next Tuesday/Wednesday, although the 12z runs have backed off that some for now. I'd imagine that would be cold enough for snow down to the lake shore, although it must be maddening down there some years until the first synoptic snow, be that in December or February.

I agree the (high+low)/2 is not the best system, but I doubt they have hourly observations (which would probably work best, the average of those) going back very far at every station, so the averages wouldn't be over the longest time frame.

I think next Wednesday will be the next shot at any snow, mostly from LES, and then the flow becomes more BUF favored.

My location is actually one of the more favorable for big Lake Effect dumps as far as west side locales go. We get hit by the primary bands that hug the lakeshore and then parallel 322. Recent examples are last Dec 8th, and then April 2007 dumped over 2 feet here on Easter weekend. It's the pity 2-4" inland fluff events that we frequently miss out on that strike Brunswick, Strongsville, and North Royalton on a regular basis and give them the 100"+ seasons. In terms of actual big snowstorms, the CLE airport is probably in the worst spot to achieve them. Too far south to cash in on East/West primary bands, and too far north to miss the elevation enhanced events that set up just a mile or two away.

[NEOH]

I think next Wednesday will be the next shot at any snow, mostly from LES, and then the flow becomes more BUF favored.

My location is actually one of the more favorable for big Lake Effect dumps as far as west side locales go. We get hit by the primary bands that hug the lakeshore and then parallel 322. Recent examples are last Dec 8th, and then April 2007 dumped over 2 feet here on Easter weekend. It's the pity 2-4" inland fluff events that we frequently miss out on that strike Brunswick, Strongsville, and North Royalton on a regular basis and give them the 100"+ seasons. In terms of actual big snowstorms, the CLE airport is probably in the worst spot to achieve them. Too far south to cash in on East/West primary bands, and too far north to miss the elevation enhanced events that set up just a mile or two away.

Next week could be really interesting for the OH Valley. The key will be where the cold front stalls. I believe most, if not all of the models take the front east of OH. CLE mentioned something about the front stalling along the west slopes of the apps with moisture overrunning. Seems like a good call at this point. Be interesting to see if a storm will pop on the front or if it will be an overrunning situation.

[wxdudemike]

Well looks like the Euro has given up hope for us getting any snow next week at least for the time being

[OHweather]

Tricky forecast scenario for sure Monday-Wednesday…

As the cold northwest flow caused by the –EPO runs into a nice southeast ridge, supported by a very +NAO and more or less neutral to –PNA, a stout baroclinic zone will develop across the central-northeastern US. This zone will at some point bisect the OV/GL regions. The pattern will initially favor the zone remaining well northwest of Ohio, with one wave of low pressure riding into the upper lakes this weekend.

On Monday, another piece of subtropical jet energy will ride out into the middle portion of the country. Lift from the jet streaks supports low pressure formation somewhere near Arkansas Monday.

At this point, the baroclinic zone will essentially be over Ohio, with cold air still just to our NW. The western US trough in tandem with the continued +NAO will support a continued southeast ridge, with a fast flow from Texas up through the northwestern Atlantic, and right over Ohio. This is where the baroclinic zone will reside, and this is likely where any storm will ride up Monday-Tuesday.

The GFS/Euro both show this low forming over the south Monday and tracking northeastward into Tuesday. The Euro brings the low over Ohio, and shows more rain, with any snow up occurring up over Michigan or over Indiana. The 12z GFS keeps the low east of the area and shows a modest snow event for a good chunk of Ohio. The 18z GFS is more in line with the Euro. The NAM also appears to be more in line with the Euro.

Given the teleconnection support for a stronger SE ridge and thus slower progression south of the cold front, I will side with the warmer models. I am expecting rain chances to increase Monday and last into Tuesday. There could be another half inch of rain across much of Ohio. There will probably be a stripe of accumulating snow northwest of the low track, perhaps from parts of MO through southern IL, IN and into MI, NW OH will be close.

After the Monday-Tuesday situation, there isn’t much more clarity.

12z Euro:

12z GFS:

Both the 12z GFS/Euro leave a good piece of energy behind over the southwest after the Tuesday system. The GFS plows east the northern branch shortwave and shears out the energy to the southwest, and shows no wave riding up the front Wednesday.

The Euro brings the energy east and develops another wave of low pressure that more or less stays east of the area.

Regardless, both models do show colder air finally overhead by Wednesday. My forecast would call for “Likely Rain” Monday-Monday night, “likely rain showers with a chance of snow mixing in” on Tuesday, and for Wednesday would call for about a 30% chance of snow over much of Ohio, with higher chances towards WV/PA and lesser chances over northwestern Ohio. This wave could go either way, however if the Monday-Tuesday wave is any indication, the more amplified solution with an even slower front (ECM) may work out. It should be noted that the GFS has a bias of being too progressive (and it is more progressive with the northern shortwave) and the Euro has a bias of leaving too much energy behind over the SW US (and it does leave behind a more formidable piece of energy). This Wednesday-Thursday wave may make some noise, one way or another. Definitely not a clear-cut forecast yet.

[Shsg Falls]

OHWeather,

Great discussions! The baroclinic zone you speak of really shows up on this ECMWF 850 hPa chart for Tuesday evening:

After the short-waves pass the area looks like it will become colder towards the end of next week, perhaps with a decent short-wave rotating around the polar vortex around James Bay, but after that it looks like a SW flow and warm air advection will redevelop.

Is winter really here yet? Doesn't seem like it.

We had a mix of snow/rain/drizzle/hard stuff fall from the sky late Friday afternoon before the stratus layer really cleared up. By 7:30 p.m. there was quite a unusual low cloud that developed sitting about 50 ft. over Chagrin Falls and parts of the valley downtown. It was neat how that extra moisture from the afternoon precipitation could create such a vivid area of fog.

[Trent]

Buffalo had their first accumulating snow yesterday, which is the second latest on record there, missing the old record by a single day.

I think CLE still stands a decent chance at cracking out its first inch sometime mid to late next week.

[dta1984]

Looks like after a washout early in the week we might have something to look forward to at the end of the week ;

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS FINALLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COLD FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING SOME FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ADVANCE CLOSER TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...FLOW MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON THURSDAY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TRIES TO BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FLOW APPEARS THAT IT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SET UP SOME GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM IN THE EAST.

[NEOH]

Looks like after a washout early in the week we might have something to look forward to at the end of the week ;

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS FINALLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COLD FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING SOME FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ADVANCE CLOSER TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...FLOW MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON THURSDAY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TRIES TO BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FLOW APPEARS THAT IT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SET UP SOME GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM IN THE EAST.

Torching here today... high of 58 earlier but cooling down now that the rained moved in. Put up Christmas lights in short sleeves.

The long term does look promising. It will be interesting to see if a storm pops in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. 12 GFS takes it well east of here but we know the GFS has that bias. I guess we always have LES to look forward to 6 days from now

[Trent]

Torching here today... high of 58 earlier but cooling down now that the rained moved in. Put up Christmas lights in short sleeves.

The long term does look promising. It will be interesting to see if a storm pops in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. 12 GFS takes it well east of here but we know the GFS has that bias. I guess we always have LES to look forward to 6 days from now

Just wait til the LES starts forming and there's no CLE radar for forecasting! I'm not sure if any of the local news outlets have legitimate live radars of their own to follow.

[NEOH]

Just wait til the LES starts forming and there's no CLE radar for forecasting! I'm not sure if any of the local news outlets have legitimate live radars of their own to follow.

It will be impossible tracking any LES without the CLE radar. I think one of the local new stations has their own radar but I'm not positive. Let's hope there is something to see -- who knows how the models will change between now and then. This pattern is miserable. Looking at some of the other discussions from Don S and Wes... the outlook for Dec is not pretty. Probably better around the GL than the EC however.

[buckeye]

last couple years everyone was celebrating the neg AO. This winter it looks like it will not only be predominantly positive but off the charts positive in some respects. Granted that's just one index but it definitely doesn't bode well for arctic intrusions down here. Synoptic snows are still on the table with moderate cold air, but I would imagine lake effect could suffer quite a bit if that AO stays strongly positive locking the cold air well to the north.

[NEOH]

last couple years everyone was celebrating the neg AO. This winter it looks like it will not only be predominantly positive but off the charts positive in some respects. Granted that's just one index but it definitely doesn't bode well for arctic intrusions down here. Synoptic snows are still on the table with moderate cold air, but I would imagine lake effect could suffer quite a bit if that AO stays strongly positive locking the cold air well to the north.

It definitely doesn't bode well for extended cold spells... but we don't need arctic air for snow. LES will probably suffer as well once the lake cools down. It doesn't take much to get it going with lake temps in the low 40's. Besides, extremely cold 850's kill lake effect with low inversion and dry air.

I'm not feeling really optimistic about this winter. It would be nice to have a front end loaded winter for a change. I know that is against climo but whatever. I could care less about snow in late February and March. Hopefully this pattern can flip later in the month.

[Trent]

It definitely doesn't bode well for extended cold spells... but we don't need arctic air for snow. LES will probably suffer as well once the lake cools down. It doesn't take much to get it going with lake temps in the low 40's. Besides, extremely cold 850's kill lake effect with low inversion and dry air.

I'm not feeling really optimistic about this winter. It would be nice to have a front end loaded winter for a change. I know that is against climo but whatever. I could care less about snow in late February and March. Hopefully this pattern can flip later in the month.

The lack of radar for 2 weeks is killing me. It's going to be nuts once/if any lake bands set up towards the latter half of the week. Also of note, we are approaching the one year anniversary of the Dec 8th LES plume. I can't imagine if that had happened during this radar outage. Seeing white out conditions and pouring snow without any radar to confirm duration/movement/etc of the band would have made that event that much more crippling.

I'll have to run some historical numbers later, but based on what we've seen thus far this fall/winter locally, climo leans heavily in favor of a less than stellar winter for snow lovers. With most areas seeing half or more of their snow as LES in NE Ohio, it will inevitably (as always) be the main determinant for winter. The mild fall could set the stage for a huge LES outbreak even with the most moderate of arctic air intrusions.

[Trent]

Here is a list of all the snow at CLE by season up until December 10th, and the corresponding snowfall for that winter. No shock at all that this winter is abnormally snow free thus far. Sadly, 12 of the 13 least snowiest starts to winter ended up being below normal. But, with a twist, the snowiest winter on record is the only one that didn't. There's still hope for a decent winter (and if recent winters are factored more heavily, a slightly below normal snowfall winter is probably in store) but if we look at a larger history, snow is not on our side this winter.

30.0 19771978 95.5

26.6 19741975 67

25.7 19961997 55.9

24.2 19621963 74.9

22.5 19501951 77.2

21.7 19491950 54.2

18.8 19511952 75.6

17.2 19721973 68.5

16.8 19761977 63.4

15.9 20052006 50.6

15.6 19971998 34

15.4 20002001 78.1

14.4 20022003 95.7

13.7 20082009 77.4

13.3 19891990 74.8

13.3 19921993 88.5

13.2 19541955 49.3

12.9 19561957 56.3

12.8 19831984 79.4

12.6 19581959 51.5

12.6 19551956 54.2

12.0 19661967 47.6

11.7 19681969 37

11.4 20032004 91.2

11.3 19841985 63.7

11.0 19951996 101.1

10.9 20062007 76.5

9.9 19811982 102.3

9.2 19671968 43.3

8.9 19881989 54.8

8.8 19591960 49.9

8.6 19871988 71.3

8.4 19531954 70.4

7.8 19641965 52.2

7.6 19691970 57

7.5 19571958 32.9

7.5 19631964 55.8

7.5 19751976 54.4

7.4 20102011 69.3

6.7 19521953 35.7

6.4 19801981 64.1

6 19821983 38

5.7 19711972 46.1

5.4 19911992 67.5

5.3 19701971 54.1

5.0 19601961 38.1

4.7 19851986 60.1

4.1 20072008 77.2

3.9 19731974 58.5

3.6 19861987 55.8

3.5 19931994 72.5

2.9 19781979 38.3

2.3 19611962 37.3

2.1 19791980 38.7

2.0 19651966 37.3

1.9 19481949 30.4

1.8 19992000 59.5

1.6 19901991 47.1

1.4 20092010 59.8

1.1 20112012 ???

1.0 20012002 45.8

0.9 20042005 117.9

0.8 19941995 43.6

0.1 19981999 62.4

[Trent]

Use this radar as a back-up while the upgrade to Dual Pol is in progress:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=LVE&type=TR0&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[NEOH]

The lack of radar for 2 weeks is killing me. It's going to be nuts once/if any lake bands set up towards the latter half of the week. Also of note, we are approaching the one year anniversary of the Dec 8th LES plume. I can't imagine if that had happened during this radar outage. Seeing white out conditions and pouring snow without any radar to confirm duration/movement/etc of the band would have made that event that much more crippling.

I'll have to run some historical numbers later, but based on what we've seen thus far this fall/winter locally, climo leans heavily in favor of a less than stellar winter for snow lovers. With most areas seeing half or more of their snow as LES in NE Ohio, it will inevitably (as always) be the main determinant for winter. The mild fall could set the stage for a huge LES outbreak even with the most moderate of arctic air intrusions.

Looks like the WKYC site and some of the other news stations have radar. Not sure where they get the radar info though. Might be a regional composite.

Well, our window for LES looks awfully short if the models continue to move the high in quickly on Saturday. This would be a pretty good outbreak if the window wasn't so short.

[NEOH]

Use this radar as a back-up while the upgrade to Dual Pol is in progress:

http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0

Thanks.

The numbers you posted don't look promising. Hard to believe we broke the snowfall record with such a bad start that year.

[Trent]

Thanks.

The numbers you posted don't look promising. Hard to believe we broke the snowfall record with such a bad start that year.

IIRC, 2004-2005 winter was the tail end of a weak el nino, so we really cashed in once that pattern shifted later in the year.

1998/1999 was our least snowiest start to winter and was also a la nina. It also featured a warm November, but that was a dry fall.

At this stage I would tend to lean towards a 50-60" winter for CLE, probably ~80% of normal. By the time we get into a snow producing pattern, we'll have already wasted a good month and half of the snow season on virtually nothing. I think once that happens, we'll see a typical winter, but never enough to overcome the early season deficit that will have built up.

[OHweather]

Looks like the WKYC site and some of the other news stations have radar. Not sure where they get the radar info though. Might be a regional composite.

Well, our window for LES looks awfully short if the models continue to move the high in quickly on Saturday. This would be a pretty good outbreak if the window wasn't so short.

The radars on the news websites appear to be regional composites.

WKYC does have an x-band radar but I can't find it on their website off a quick glance.

[OHweather]

IIRC, 2004-2005 winter was the tail end of a weak el nino, so we really cashed in once that pattern shifted later in the year.

1998/1999 was our least snowiest start to winter and was also a la nina. It also featured a warm November, but that was a dry fall.

At this stage I would tend to lean towards a 50-60" winter for CLE, probably ~80% of normal. By the time we get into a snow producing pattern, we'll have already wasted a good month and half of the snow season on virtually nothing. I think once that happens, we'll see a typical winter, but never enough to overcome the early season deficit that will have built up.

Ya, the pattern won't improve for at least two weeks...positive AO expected to continue.

The MJO won't move east and help shift the pattern for at least a month by the looks, which is typical for a La Nina.

We won't torch, but cold shots will be transient (see this weekend) and things will have to come together perfectly for a major synoptic storm. Lake effect is more of a crap shoot so can't completely count that out yet for this month, but I'm not more optimistic than usual about it this month.

04-05 was the year of lake effect if I recall...with some synoptic snow (I was 12, forgive me if my memory is vague) but the lake never froze and we had arctic outbreaks into April.

[NEOH]

Ya, the pattern won't improve for at least two weeks...positive AO expected to continue.

The MJO won't move east and help shift the pattern for at least a month by the looks, which is typical for a La Nina.

We won't torch, but cold shots will be transient (see this weekend) and things will have to come together perfectly for a major synoptic storm. Lake effect is more of a crap shoot so can't completely count that out yet for this month, but I'm not more optimistic than usual about it this month.

04-05 was the year of lake effect if I recall...with some synoptic snow (I was 12, forgive me if my memory is vague) but the lake never froze and we had arctic outbreaks into April.

Wow... I'm feeling really old. You are wise beyond your years.

[jbcmh81]

last couple years everyone was celebrating the neg AO. This winter it looks like it will not only be predominantly positive but off the charts positive in some respects. Granted that's just one index but it definitely doesn't bode well for arctic intrusions down here. Synoptic snows are still on the table with moderate cold air, but I would imagine lake effect could suffer quite a bit if that AO stays strongly positive locking the cold air well to the north.

Well, so far at least, December is looking good as far as my winter outlook goes, but it's not great for snow/cold lovers. Hopefully the colder/snowier January-February pan out.

[Northernohio]

Winter wonderland here in Bowling Green, changed over to snow with about an inch on the ground. Could be a nice suprise here in NW Ohio.

[OHweather]

Wow... I'm feeling really old. You are wise beyond your years.

Thanks! Hoping I don't start leveling off as I head through college

On a weather related note, it seems like just about every yard in my neighborhood has become a pond, this rain just will not quit.

[Trent]

Thanks! Hoping I don't start leveling off as I head through college

On a weather related note, it seems like just about every yard in my neighborhood has become a pond, this rain just will not quit.

Yeah, you know it's been a record breaking rainy year when 30 straight hours of measurable rain deposits almost 2" and it doesn't feel unusual or noteworthy.

[AppsRunner]

04-05 was the year of lake effect if I recall...with some synoptic snow (I was 12, forgive me if my memory is vague) but the lake never froze and we had arctic outbreaks into April.

Was one of the best winters here in BG... Pre-Christmas storm in Dec., nice snowstorms in January including the superclipper, along with that ridiculous April for Northern OH.

Winter wonderland here in Bowling Green, changed over to snow with about an inch on the ground. Could be a nice suprise here in NW Ohio.

Yep, worked out nicely here.

[Speedskater]

WKYC channel 3 does have it's own radar unit, but it's old and has poor resolution. It's always available on the station's (standard definition) sub-channel, they cycle between 3 or 4 different radars. But none are worth looking at. The channel 19 and 43 weather department also was a radar unit. Channel 5 has the best appearing radar.

Note to Trent,

Since Thanksgiving I was able to put up all the outside Christmas lights, put the snow tires on both cars and buy a new snow-shovel, so don't expect any snow for a long time.

[OHweather]

Yeah, you know it's been a record breaking rainy year when 30 straight hours of measurable rain deposits almost 2" and it doesn't feel unusual or noteworthy.

Ya, how many times have we seen this during 2011?

Although, after a refresh the flood warnings for Cuyahoga, Summit, Portage, and Geauga counties have disappeared...they are all back now (930) and Lorain county has been added. All appear to be for minor river flooding.