Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[Trent]

What are you basing your statements on because I'm not reading anybody else saying this would be a winter event (let alone significant as 6-12) for almost the entire state of OH? Seems most maps have shown this going too far west and/or dragging too much warm air north??

I'm just here to feed the weenies. Yesterdays 12z euro run was great, especially for northern Ohio. Check out the free maps on wunderground.

[RogueWaves]

I'm just here to feed the weenies. Yesterdays 12z euro run was great, especially for northern Ohio. Check out the free maps on wunderground.

Gotcha..feed away. It will be real (the 6-12) one of these times..tick, tick, tick on the clock counting down to winter..

[NEOH]

I'm just here to feed the weenies. Yesterdays 12z euro run was great, especially for northern Ohio. Check out the free maps on wunderground.

Lol. Let's just break the damn pattern already. Next week looks fun. Wouldn't it be something if it is raining in MI and snowing in GA.

Edit: Lock up the Euro

[OHweather]

Both the GFS and Euro now seem to be agreeing somewhat on cutting off a mid-upper level low to the south/southwest of Ohio and bringing it north by Tuesday or Wednesday. My guess is it will get cold enough for snow if the cold core comes overhead, so some synoptic snow showers will be possible Tuesday-Wednesday.

The outcome of this storm will probably be somewhat whacky so it's hard to count on much this far out, though.

[Shsg Falls]

The European looks to show a moderate snow event in NE Ohio starting Monday:

While the GFS shows heavy rain with temperatures in the 60s (and ironically snow showers in Alabama and Mississippi):

[NEOH]

The European looks to show a moderate snow event in NE Ohio starting Monday:

While the GFS shows heavy rain with temperatures in the 60s (and ironically snow showers in Alabama and Mississippi):

At the least it is fun to having something to watch. The models will be flip flopping for days with this storm... if there even is a storm

If there is precip, whether it is frozen or not, it will make a beeline for OH. It just doesn't want to stop this year. The tracks are laid down for the winter.

[RogueWaves]

At the least it is fun to having something to watch. The models will be flip flopping for days with this storm... if there even is a storm

If there is precip, whether it is frozen or not, it will make a beeline for OH. It just doesn't want to stop this year. The tracks are laid down for the winter.

Yeah, just look at the last 24 hrs. rainfall totals in MICHINDIO! I think its our turn to be "ground zero" for a historic winter...

[OHweather]

Where we stand, so far, and where we look to be going…

We look to have a spectacular first half of the holiday weekend across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley region, with a strongly positive NAO and positive EPO pumping up a ridge over the central portion of the country. However, the pattern has changed from what dominated the first half of the month (and provided some spectacular stretches of weather) and may continue to change.

For the second half of October into November, an extremely strong Scandinavian ridge was in place over northern Europe. This resulted in wavelengths that caused a downstream –PNA and troughing into western N. American. This forced ridging or at least a zonal pattern over the eastern half of the country, resulting in well above normal temperatures over the region and for a change, a near to below normal month precipitation wise.

However, the current hemispheric 500mb map above shows that the ridge over Scandinavia/northern Europe has flattened significantly. The large negative 500mb height anomalies have shifted from the NE Atlantic to over S. Greenland, and from the western N. Pole to off the northwestern N. American coast. Now, the result for the region is similar, for this weekend at least, more great weather. However, the models are in relatively decent agreement in shifting this Alaskan vortex into a position that allows for some ridging over the western US, and perhaps supports some cooler weather over the lakes/OV.

In the short term, one shortwave will dive down into the Plains Friday into Saturday. The models still differ significantly with the evolution of this feature. The GFS, its ensembles along with the UKMET appear to be northern stream dominant and close off the trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes, supporting some snow showers over the region Sunday into Monday. The Euro, its ensembles and the CMC appear to be southern stream dominant and show a cut off low over the Deep South. Both models gradually move the cut off north, with the Euro not showing much northern stream energy phasing with the cutoff and just a weak low riding up the Appellations with little if any snow. The 0z Canadian shows a much stronger shortwave diving into the upper Midwest Monday, which then phases with the cut off low and results in a relatively deep low riding through the eastern lakes. This results in a swath of accumulating snow over eastern MI and perhaps northern OH, into southern Ontario.

Given the La Nina, I would initially want to give the nod to the GFS/UK and the dominant northern stream. However, with the very strong vortex over Alaska it may be hard to get enough amplification of the northern stream over the next few days to see a cutoff storm over the lakes. This will be very interesting to watch over the next couple days, as the very active Pacific jet stream will give the models fits. A wide array of solutions remains possible.

Moving on, the GFS/ECM ensembles both show the Alaskan vortex moving NW and weakening significantly over the next week:

ECM Ensembles:

GFS Ensembles:

Both sets of ensembles appear to show this pattern locking in, meaning that perhaps the pattern is undergoing a shift right now. Both sets of ensembles want to set up some sort of semi-persistent troughing over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into early December.

This pattern probably won’t favor a major storm over the region once it locks in (with an outside shot next week as the shift occurs), but it looks like we probably won’t dry torch to start December, and occasional clippers/cold shots may give some shots of light snow, especially downwind of the lakes.

[NEOH]

Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. What a nice stretch of weather this has been. Clear and mild again today. Dec 1st is quickly approaching... time for the pattern change to get moving.

[Trent]

Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. What a nice stretch of weather this has been. Clear and mild again today. Dec 1st is quickly approaching... time for the pattern change to get moving.

Yeah. The last week of November is typically the start of the "real snow season" here ... where you can reasonably expect decent snow events both synoptic and LES at any time now through March. I think December starts to average 0.5" per day, so without any storms soon, we will quickly start to rack up deficits. This has been the case recently, going into the new year with moderate snow deficits but then having "super" stretches of winter where they are erased only to start the spring torch early. Last winter, though, was pretty good with spreading the snow from early Nov through late March.

We should crack the 60" precip mark relatively soon, hopefully through snowstorms instead of the omnipresent deluges of 2011.

[Trent]

Hopefully we will be saying good riddance to the November torch soon. It looks like November 2011 will go down as the 4th warmest in the 141 year record history for Cleveland. Currently we sit at 48.5 for the month, and plugging in the next 4 days projected temperatures yields an average of 48.2, safely in the number 4 spot. The good news is that it doesn't doom winter, 2003 also featured a November torch and a well above average snowfall season. November 2009 also torched and was followed by a normal, albeit very short, snowfall season.

[carumba]

Hopefully we will be saying good riddance to the November torch soon. It looks like November 2011 will go down as the 4th warmest in the 141 year record history for Cleveland. Currently we sit at 48.5 for the month, and plugging in the next 4 days projected temperatures yields an average of 48.2, safely in the number 4 spot. The good news is that it doesn't doom winter, 2003 also featured a November torch and a well above average snowfall season. November 2009 also torched and was followed by a normal, albeit very short, snowfall season.

I too am looking forward to seeing November out, good riddance. I love nothing better than sitting in my office on weekends and watching it snow outside. I have so far this year been deprived of my ritual.

On the bright side, I still haven't called the snowplow guy, no need yet. The longer I can go without calling him, the better in my book.

[OHweather]

Switch to a +PNA still appears likely this week...with a +AO, this likely means we will see a NW flow with the heart of the cold remaining to our northwest. However, the torch will be over and we will likely start seeing some shots at lake effect snow and perhaps little clippers with some synoptic precip.

Euro ensembles for days 6-10:

The trend continues to be for a low track right over Ohio Tuesday-Wednesday, with the heart of any snow over IN/MI. We may see some wrap around snow showers or mixed rain/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, but accumulation prospects don't look too exciting.

For Friday, however, both the GFS/Euro show a nice little shortwave swinging through on the fresh NW flow. Looks like a nice burst of lift will occur as the upper trough moves through. 850mb temps are shown to be colder than -8 on both models, with a north-northwest flow developing Friday. Given decent synoptic moisture/lift along with steep enough lapse rates over the lake for lake effect, we could see a light synoptic snow Friday with the lake adding a couple additional inches over north-central and northeast Ohio. Definitely something to watch.

[Shsg Falls]

Big pattern change looks to be coming during the 1st week of December as a ridge builds across Alaska (150 W longitude). Alaska has been bitterly cold thus far this winter, looks like that will change and the cold will eventually start to spill out of Canada.

[NEOH]

Big pattern change looks to be coming during the 1st week of December as a ridge builds across Alaska (150 W longitude). Alaska has been bitterly cold thus far this winter, looks like that will change and the cold will eventually start to spill out of Canada.

Definitely a good sign. Hopefully the models aren't rushing the pattern change.

CLE's radar is being updated and will be down for 2 weeks. It would be tough to track any LES without the local radar.

[OHweather]

We have a few small points of interest to monitor over the next 7-10 days up here...

Wednesday snow:

As the storm system that will track over Ohio Tuesday night wraps up and pulls away Wednesday, cooler air aloft will filter in with 850mb temps progged to drop to -3 to -5C over a good portion of Ohio by early Wednesday. This will be cold enough to at least mix in some snow.

As the cool NW flow develops on the backside of the storm, the remnant deform band will rotate through. Given some likely lake enhancement, combined with the remaining dynamics left with the deform band, precip will likely wrap back into northern Ohio late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The 0z NAM forecast skew-t valid for 36 hours shows what appears to be some modest instability in the lowest levels, along with some mid level lift above the inversion. There appears to be decent moisture through the snow growth region, and this cross section across the Cleveland metro at the same time shows this:

The NAM, ECM and GFS all show surface temps in the low-mid 30s early Wednesday as this wrap around precip works through, so we should see mainly snow when the heaviest precip rotates through. I don't expect more than perhaps a half inch to an inch in the Cleveland metro, but a dusting appears possible. We could see the precip switch back to or mix with rain Wednesday afternoon as the best moisture pulls east and as the surface temps warm some into the upper 30s.

Friday clipper:

The 12z GFS/Euro are not in agreement on this feature. The Euro is more amplified and shows a rather potent shortwave. The Euro also grazes northern Ohio with more mid level moisture than the GFS…

Euro:

GFS:

Subtle differences in the amplitude of this clipper will determine if there is enough moisture/lift to generate measureable precipitation (likely snow) over northern Ohio. If the more amplified solution plays out, a light accumulation of snow seems possible, especially with a flow coming off the lake as the clipper moves through. For now, a “chance of snow showers” seems like a reasonable forecast, until better agreement can be found.

Sunday-Monday system:

As one can see on the GFS ensembles above valid Friday morning, a substantial upper level ridge of high pressure will develop over the extreme northeast Pacific into southern Alaska and western Canada. This will cause a northwest flow into the upper Midwest. The majority of models are in fairly decent agreement on plunging a northern stream shortwave into the northern Rockies/Upper Midwest Friday (you can see the shortwave poised to dive south over Western Canada on the image above). As this shortwave dives down, most models (excluding the GFS) show it interacting or “phasing” with the cut-off low shown above in the southwestern US. If these two features phase, a respectable storm system is possible over the middle part of the country. If these features do not phase, a regular clipper type system would result over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

As you can see above, the 12z GFS ensembles, for the most part, do show some sort of storm system in the middle part of the country Sunday morning, indicating a phasing of the two features discussed above. The 12z Euro also shows some sort of phasing:

Given the highly positive AO/NAO that will be in place this weekend (note the very large upper low over Greenland and extremely fast flow over the north Atlantic shown on the upper level GFS ensemble forecast shown a few images up), any storm that occurs will track to our north, meaning we will likely be on the warm side of things. Right now, I am favoring some phasing of the two features discussed above and a storm track through the central/western Great Lakes on Sunday. If I was forecasting operationally, I would have a “chance of showers” in the forecast for Sunday and a “chance of rain and snow showers” in the forecast for Monday, as some polar air does eventually move in behind the system for the beginning of next week.

Coldest air of the season thus far:

Behind the Sunday-Monday system, both the GFS and European model suites are in good agreement on bringing a lobe of the polar vortex over the Great Lakes/New England Monday-Wednesday of next week. The air that will flow in will have a connection to northern Alaska (see above image), and barring major changes will be the coldest air of the season thus far. This will definitely need to be watched for accumulating lake effect snow.

[Trent]

Rather dry November by CLE standards this month.

Chalk up another 1" rain event for the year, but a noteworthy one as CLE just surpassed the 60" mark for the season.

[NEOH]

Rather dry November by CLE standards this month.

Chalk up another 1" rain event for the year, but a noteworthy one as CLE just surpassed the 60" mark for the season.

Yeah, it's been so dry only half of my yard is under water . Let's go for 65" inches this year... but stop wasting this precip on the liquid form. The wet pattern better persist when the cold air arrives. Last night's Euro run fires up the LES machine next week.

[Trent]

Sad to say, but it looks like CLE will enter the record books with regards to latest first inch. There's an outside chance wrap around tomorrow could provide,but if not, we'll be sitting at 5th latest in a week. The good news is that 2004/2005 didn't have its first inch until Dec 13, and 117" fell that winter.

[OHweather]

Sad to say, but it looks like CLE will enter the record books with regards to latest first inch. There's an outside chance wrap around tomorrow could provide,but if not, we'll be sitting at 5th latest in a week. The good news is that 2004/2005 didn't have its first inch until Dec 13, and 117" fell that winter.

There was also up to 2 feet in the Snow Belt April 23-25th, 2005, and up to two feet a couple weeks earlier in Geauga/Ashtabula counties, so that winter made up for a late start with a very late finish. My guess is the airport doesn't squeeze out an inch tomorrow, but it could realistically be close.

[wxdudemike]

My thoughts for this winter in Columbus:

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-columbus/winter-preview-2011-2012-what-will-it-bring

Not super long, and I tried to keep it to easy terms. Let me know what you guys think!

[NEOH]

There was also up to 2 feet in the Snow Belt April 23-25th, 2005, and up to two feet a couple weeks earlier in Geauga/Ashtabula counties, so that winter made up for a late start with a very late finish. My guess is the airport doesn't squeeze out an inch tomorrow, but it could realistically be close.

Snow is coming down pretty good this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if CLE squeezes out an inch.

Re: the April 2005 storm... I had 29 inches of cement. What a remarkable late season event event that was.

[NEOH]

My thoughts for this winter in Columbus:

http://www.examiner....t-will-it-bring

Not super long, and I tried to keep it to easy terms. Let me know what you guys think!

Nice work Mike. Good luck with the forecast!

[wxdudemike]

Nice work Mike. Good luck with the forecast!

Thank you!

[OHweather]

Snow is coming down pretty good this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if CLE squeezes out an inch.

Re: the April 2005 storm... I had 29 inches of cement. What a remarkable late season event event that was.

It has been ripping here the past hour-hour and a half...visibility has been down around half a mile. Still only around half an inch on the ground, but everything is covered so it's a picturesque snow.

On a (more interesting) side note, the lakes should light up like Christmas trees next Tuesday-Wednesday as this upper trough moves through:

Could even be some synoptic snows as well if the low closes off like the Euro shows, although right now there isn't a ton of support for that idea.

[Trent]

I'm near the airport now. I'd say about 0.3", nothing stellar, but cars coming from south have a good 2" on them. Downtown had snow, but no accums.

[NEOH]

Wow. Euro delivers the good stuff to most of OH next Tuesday.

[OHweather]

Will post more in depth hopefully over the next day...just time for brief thoughts...

12z Euro leaves energy behind in the southwestern US Sunday. The model then brings this east Monday-Tuesday and shows an attempt at phasing with a shortwave diving down out of Canada, resulting in a swath of snow across parts of the upper Ohio Valley. 12z GFS and UKMET lend some credence to this idea.

At this point, I think it's possible. We have agreement on a -EPO ridge being in place at this time with a very deep polar vortex over the eastern half of Canada, which supports shortwaves moving south into the Midwest. The NAO should remain positive through this time so any wave of low pressure that does develop would probably try to turn left, however the potential suppressing influence of a large polar vortex can't be ignored. Either way, the shortwave that may interact with leftover sub-tropical jet energy early next week will likely bring the coldest shot of air of the season thus far to the region, which would support lake effect, so stay tuned.

The NAO may try to peak neutral, but I don't expect a negative NAO over the next two weeks. The AO will just be too positive. However, there is some support for ridging remaining over the extreme NE Pacific for the next two weeks and a continued parade of high amplitude shortwaves into the upper Midwest. This pattern supports cold anomalies over the upper Plains/Rockies and warm anomalies over the southern/eastern US. I expect an active weather pattern to continue over the next two weeks. I expect near to slightly above average temps on average through the middle of December and above average precip. We will probably have a shot at some decent snow next week if things line up right, the second week of the month may be too warm, but with an active pattern and no blow torch signal for our region I can't rule anything out yet.

[Trent]

Will post more in depth hopefully over the next day...just time for brief thoughts...

12z Euro leaves energy behind in the southwestern US Sunday. The model then brings this east Monday-Tuesday and shows an attempt at phasing with a shortwave diving down out of Canada, resulting in a swath of snow across parts of the upper Ohio Valley. 12z GFS and UKMET lend some credence to this idea.

At this point, I think it's possible. We have agreement on a -EPO ridge being in place at this time with a very deep polar vortex over the eastern half of Canada, which supports shortwaves moving south into the Midwest. The NAO should remain positive through this time so any wave of low pressure that does develop would probably try to turn left, however the potential suppressing influence of a large polar vortex can't be ignored. Either way, the shortwave that may interact with leftover sub-tropical jet energy early next week will likely bring the coldest shot of air of the season thus far to the region, which would support lake effect, so stay tuned.

The NAO may try to peak neutral, but I don't expect a negative NAO over the next two weeks. The AO will just be too positive. However, there is some support for ridging remaining over the extreme NE Pacific for the next two weeks and a continued parade of high amplitude shortwaves into the upper Midwest. This pattern supports cold anomalies over the upper Plains/Rockies and warm anomalies over the southern/eastern US. I expect an active weather pattern to continue over the next two weeks. I expect near to slightly above average temps on average through the middle of December and above average precip. We will probably have a shot at some decent snow next week if things line up right, the second week of the month may be too warm, but with an active pattern and no blow torch signal for our region I can't rule anything out yet.

Good analysis. As long as there's an active pattern, there's at least some potential, and of course potential for LES after any passing cold shot. The lake still has a strong influence along the shore this time of year as evidenced by this morning. It's going to take a serious cold shot to allow snow to stick here. Viewing the satellite shots from Michigan this morning, showed the same to be evident along the shore of Michigan's thumb. But that's generally the case in marginal temperature events.

Still no first inch at CLE, so it looks like that gets pushed back at least another week, but should be erased by next weekend (which would still be in the latest 5). November should edge out at 47.9 degrees depending on what it is at midnight, which will determine the low for the day, which will be good enough for 4th warmest November on record.

On that same vein, it's quite interesting to look at the highs and lows for the month and the time they occurred. There were so many mid afternoon low temperatures, 11:59 pm low temps, 11:59pm high temps, 12:01am high temps, etc. This month is a prime example of why the high+low and divide by 2 system really doesn't give an accurate picture of what the month or particular day was like.

[OHweather]

Good analysis. As long as there's an active pattern, there's at least some potential, and of course potential for LES after any passing cold shot. The lake still has a strong influence along the shore this time of year as evidenced by this morning. It's going to take a serious cold shot to allow snow to stick here. Viewing the satellite shots from Michigan this morning, showed the same to be evident along the shore of Michigan's thumb. But that's generally the case in marginal temperature events.

Still no first inch at CLE, so it looks like that gets pushed back at least another week, but should be erased by next weekend (which would still be in the latest 5). November should edge out at 47.9 degrees depending on what it is at midnight, which will determine the low for the day, which will be good enough for 4th warmest November on record.

On that same vein, it's quite interesting to look at the highs and lows for the month and the time they occurred. There were so many mid afternoon low temperatures, 11:59 pm low temps, 11:59pm high temps, 12:01am high temps, etc. This month is a prime example of why the high+low and divide by 2 system really doesn't give an accurate picture of what the month or particular day was like.

Some GFS/Euro runs were hinting at 850mb temps of colder than -15C next Tuesday/Wednesday, although the 12z runs have backed off that some for now. I'd imagine that would be cold enough for snow down to the lake shore, although it must be maddening down there some years until the first synoptic snow, be that in December or February.

I agree the (high+low)/2 is not the best system, but I doubt they have hourly observations (which would probably work best, the average of those) going back very far at every station, so the averages wouldn't be over the longest time frame.