OhioBlizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The timing keeps getting pushed back as well. Originally it was looking like an afternoon passage, but now its looking like it will pass later in the evening. These generally flare up just before sunset and then die down a bit afterwards. So if we are looking at a 10pm passage, it might not be as impressive as those who get hit around 4pm. Then again we're talking about the difference between 1" or 2". I'd rather stay dry and hope for the fantasy storm at day 8. well good thing about late evening vs afternoon is that its gonna accumulate a lot better than it would versus falling during the afternoon with the stronger sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The timing keeps getting pushed back as well. Originally it was looking like an afternoon passage, but now its looking like it will pass later in the evening. These generally flare up just before sunset and then die down a bit afterwards. So if we are looking at a 10pm passage, it might not be as impressive as those who get hit around 4pm. Then again we're talking about the difference between 1" or 2". I'd rather stay dry and hope for the fantasy storm at day 8. Exactly what I was thinking. With such a little accumulation of fluff... the sunny side of the street will be bare with shaded areas having snow. Sun angle is comparable to October at this point. I'll ride the fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It will be interesting to see what we get out of friday night. probably just another 1-2 maybe 3 to add salt to the wounds. lol. well for the past 3 weeks i've been stuck at 41.0" on the year and been trying to work my way up to 42". Picked up 0.2" today taking me up to 41.2" so at this rate by april i might get there lol. Are you the former OHSnow/Ytterbium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Are you the former OHSnow/Ytterbium? No i've always gone by OhioBlizzard no matter what forum i'm on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 at 192 the 12z gfs takes a low from AL to sw.PA, picture-perfect Ohio snowstorm....usually. Appears to be all or mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 at 192 the 12z gfs takes a low from AL to sw.PA, picture-perfect Ohio snowstorm....usually. Appears to be all or mostly rain. Ideal track, but no High to our north to pump in that cold air. If I remember correctly, wasn't there a High to the northwest, just not strong enough and not in prime position? Things will change on this one for sure, but the way things are going this year..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ideal track, but no High to our north to pump in that cold air. If I remember correctly, wasn't there a High to the northwest, just not strong enough and not in prime position? Things will change on this one for sure, but the way things are going this year..................... Not to sound all pessimistic but the change will most likely involve one of two options, either a more phased solution (cutting further west)..or..a weaker solution with light rain maybe a flurry or two. You're absolutely right though. The canadian HP factory has been shut down all season. When one does decide to appear, (like this weekend), it quickly slides in and exits just as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not to sound all pessimistic but the change will most likely involve one of two options, either a more phased solution (cutting further west)..or..a weaker solution with light rain maybe a flurry or two. You're absolutely right though. The canadian HP factory has been shut down all season. When one does decide to appear, (like this weekend), it quickly slides in and exits just as quickly. That is a classic track for heavy snow in OH. You're not being pessimistic... realistic IMO. I'd lean toward weaker and moving off to the SE the way this winter has gone. Every cold shot has been transient. The bulk of the precip would fall as rain transitioning to the SN as the low moves aways. Wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 CLE's on the dry-air train. It will feel like winter again however. Trent will have large piles of dust down by the lakeshore... while inland areas may cover the grass with leaf blower type snow. THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOW AMOUNTS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 OR MAYBE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BLOW THE SNOW AROUND A BIT AND COULD END UP BEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT SOME POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS painting a higher end advisory event for Cleveland's CWA tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This year is anything but typical: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was falling asleep while typing this, so let’s see how this turns out. 2/10-2/12 Clipper/Lake Effect Snow A potent upper level shortwave is currently diving south into the northern Plains thanks in large part to a potent +PNA ridge that has developed over western portions of the continent. With this shortwave height falls combined with positive vorticity advection, good convergence along a strong arctic frontal boundary and some additional help from the left-exit portion of an upper level jet streak will produce a swath of accumulating synoptic snows across the lower lakes/upper Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. Behind this arctic front, lake effect snow will develop in a northerly flow downwind of the Great Lakes, further contributing to potential snow accumulations. Timing of the frontal passage appears to be very early Saturday morning across much of northern OH. This system has continued to come in slower and a bit more amplified, meaning snow will hold off until late Friday evening than initially expected and will last later into Saturday morning. In addition, some short range models and to some extent the Euro are indicating the shortwave will become amplified enough for a wave of low pressure to form along the front somewhere near eastern Lake Erie early Saturday before the energy jumps to the east coast by noon Saturday: Given the shortwave has been trending a bit more amplified in recent model runs and that the Euro has shown this potential for days now, will side with the shorter range models that do pop a bit of a surface low along the arctic front just to our NE early Saturday before the coastal low takes over. Essentially, this surface low formation slows the front down and will allow enhanced convergence/lift to occur over Lake Erie for a few hours behind the arctic front. A surface low forming in this position would also allow a more NNWrly flow to occur over the lake behind the arctic front as opposed to a northerly flow, which has ramifications on where any lake effect sets up. Given good large scale lift and low level convergence associated with the arctic front, a period of moderate to briefly heavy snow seems possible area wide for a few hours generally after midnight over northern OH (a bit sooner over NW OH). Moisture off Lake Erie may enhance this initial but mainly synoptic snow produce as well. A deep dendrite growth zone at the time of heaviest synoptic precip will help the .1-.2” of liquid equivalent that falls with the cold front/surface low over N. Central/N. East Oho squeeze out a solid 2-3” general snow event area wide with this front passage, with perhaps a bit less over NW OH. Lake effect parameters behind the front will be ok but not great. Given a lake temperature of +1C equilibrium heights briefly approach 10k but general hover at 8-9k feet through the day Saturday. This is sufficient but not great. Dendrite growth zone lowers but remains deep enough for fluffy snow ratios through the day Saturday. Winds are unsheared below 700-800mb but are sheared above this level. Again ok but not great. However, the wind direction in the lower portions of the atmosphere will support orographic lift off much of the terrain just inland from the lake and a potential Huron connection into the Cleveland metro. Due to surface low formation overhead or just to the east would force a NNW flow overhead I believe the best chances at seeing a Huron connection lie from Cleveland east. Initial modeling hinted at a west side special but I believe the will not be the case. Synoptic moisture associated with the arctic front will pull out by Saturday afternoon and inversions will lower. Winds will also turn westerly, so the window for best snows will end late Saturday morning. Given this, I believe an additional 1-3” of lake enhancement is possible on top of the 2-3” of synoptic snow…mainly over the secondary Snow Belt. Eastern Ashtabula County and NW PA/SW NY will also cash in Saturday evening when winds turn more westerly. A brief shot of mid level moisture early Sunday combined with a continued cold WNW flow may allow lake effect to re-flare during that time frame, adding an additional couple inches of snow likely in the primary belt. All in all, a general 1-2”/2-3” type event with an additional few inches of lake enhancement, leading to potentially localized 6”+ amounts in favored locales by Sunday. Favored areas will likely be southern Cuyahoga, northeastern Medina and northern Summit Counties with 3-7” of snow appearing likely. The higher elevations of the primary belt may also see up to 6” through Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts over NW PA will be likely. My guess is CLE goes advisory from Cuyahoga/Summit points east. This event will be spread out so impacts will be more of the nuisance variety. NW PA may be the boarderline exception where a marginal warning may verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This thing keeps getting pushed farther back. We are looking at a snow start time overnight into the wee Saturday morning hours now. I'm still not overly excited about this, especially as trends have favored those areas to the north of Lake Erie for best convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Excellent forecast OHweather. Slower and a bit stronger seems to be the trend. I'm not overly optimistic about this given the dry air... although the models have bumped up moisture. It will be nice to see the snow fall again. I'll dust off my broom so I can clear the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Excellent forecast OHweather. Slower and a bit stronger seems to be the trend. I'm not overly optimistic about this given the dry air... although the models have bumped up moisture. It will be nice to see the snow fall again. I'll dust off my broom so I can clear the drive. Each run has had a slightly different evolution so still could be some wild cards tomorrow. The high-res models will probably continue to shift things around and I'm sure at least one solution will show a favorable snow. It probably won't even be worth a drive to chagrin to check out the 4-6" totals come Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Excellent forecast OHweather. Slower and a bit stronger seems to be the trend. I'm not overly optimistic about this given the dry air... although the models have bumped up moisture. It will be nice to see the snow fall again. I'll dust off my broom so I can clear the drive. Thanks. The NAM is continuing to print out a quarter to half inch of QPF which with decent ratios translates to several inches of snow through Sunday, so we'll see if the hi-res models continue to try to bump up QPF. Each run has had a slightly different evolution so still could be some wild cards tomorrow. The high-res models will probably continue to shift things around and I'm sure at least one solution will show a favorable snow. It probably won't even be worth a drive to chagrin to check out the 4-6" totals come Sunday morning. The 12z NAM looks like it takes until late tomorrow afternoon to pull the synoptic moisture east. The GFS is faster but has trended slower. So the finally solution may not quite be set yet. Either way most liklely won't be a huge event, but it will certainly be nice to see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Each run has had a slightly different evolution so still could be some wild cards tomorrow. The high-res models will probably continue to shift things around and I'm sure at least one solution will show a favorable snow. It probably won't even be worth a drive to chagrin to check out the 4-6" totals come Sunday morning. Looking at the regional radar... snow is quickly converging from the SW and NW. I'll be interested in seeing what the high-res models show today. Possible overachiever on the way... especially if this slows down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 A picture so epic that no description is required. In all seriousness, that would with ratios equal 10"+ in parts of the higher terrain of the Snow Belt which is a solid warning criteria snow. I'm not sold on that much yet but the system appears to be overproducing a bit upstream and the 12z runs of the models appear thus far to be a tad slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 A picture so epic that no description is required. In all seriousness, that would with ratios equal 10"+ in parts of the higher terrain of the Snow Belt which is a solid warning criteria snow. I'm not sold on that much yet but the system appears to be overproducing a bit upstream and the 12z runs of the models appear thus far to be a tad slower. No doubt those are overdone. However, the latest WRFs paint a widespread 0.25" over northern Ohio, with quite a few half inch lollipops. This would leave me to believe a 3-6" isn't out of the question. But it does seem that would come in 2 batches. I think the time frame to watch is 1 pm tomorrow when there'll be convergence taking place all along northern Ohio before transitioning to LES. I think it's easy to get caught up on some of the more robust high-res solutions, so I wouldn't go too extreme with the snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WRF is looking juicy, but trying to not get too excited Edit; looks like light snow is starting to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Been snowing since 11:30 in the Dayton area, a covering is on now, 31 degrees. Might be our first synoptic event of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GFS painting a higher end advisory event for Cleveland's CWA tomorrow night. That has me right at 4 inches. If I get that, I will donate some money to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looking more and more like a 3-6" event. NAM is much more juiced than the GFS... but it's probably time to stick with the local models. Snowing lightly out in Chagrin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That has me right at 4 inches. If I get that, I will donate some money to the board! That's an old image... and you should donate to the board regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That's an old image... and you should donate to the board regardless yeah, I probably will. (Still would like the four inches of snow though..would be pleased with three.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I disagree with CLE leaving Cuyahoga out of the advisory with a moist NNW flow behind the front. Areas west of the primary belt are favored with a NNW flow but don't tell CLE that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I disagree with CLE leaving Cuyahoga out of the advisory with a moist NNW flow behind the front. Areas west of the primary belt are favored with a NNW flow but don't tell CLE that... Yeah. I was quite surprised to see the lack of advisories for this event. CLE has been very "warning happy" this year too. The WRFs from BUF continue to paint a solid advisory event for NE Ohio including all of Cuyahoga County. Even just 0.25" liquid equivalent will produce at least 4 or 5 inches with this. I'm sure Cuyahoga County will be added to the mix (along with the second tier for the extreme north) in the morning once half the snow has already fallen. I just don't think they want to jump the gun for an event that won't hamper people's Friday night plans and doesn't start until the overnight hours. I'll go with 3" here at the shore. But it will be an impossible to measure fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Per the early morning AFD CLE is continuing with the "moderate approach" of not issuing headlines for snow west of the traditional Snow Belt in a non-tradition NNW flow set up until the event is half over. Perhaps I'm missing something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 About 2-3" fell last night. Wind is blowing pretty good so measuring will be challenging. Looking at the radar, it appears we'll see "blob" type lake enhanced snow over the inland areas. NNW winds should spread the wealth around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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