Trent Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Haven't followed anything the past few days. Is there even a realistic threat for any snow the next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If the GFS is right then I can see something close to warning criteria being possible. If the euro is right I really think winter is done for everyone south of 45 degrees. The mechanisms that we dont understand may have passed the point of no return on establishing a winter time pattern. Weather is a whole collection of feedbacks and cause and effect systems, we might not have that trigger out there on Feb 2nd to trigger that pattern change. Its possible that once we passed Jan 15th we might have hit the point of no return. Lets just hope this weeks cold shot is right so the UP snowmobile trails get a reinforcing shot of 5-10 inches. After that...whatever happens... happens. I would put my money on nothing. We need another summer to reset whatever is causing this pattern. There is virtually nothing but mild/seasonable temps and dry weather for the lower lakes on both models. Euro really torches at the end of the run. Once 2/15 hits forget about sustained snow cover, or cold weather for that matter. We'll get a transient shot of cold, and perhaps a storm. But for all intensive purposes, we've turn the corner toward Spring. What cold shot this week are you reffering to? We did slip back from the 50's to lower 40's/upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Haven't followed anything the past few days. Is there even a realistic threat for any snow the next week? Not really. The Euro brings a brief cold shot down next week... but just as quickly warmth builds back in. Sound familar?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 There is virtually nothing but mild/seasonable temps and dry weather for the lower lakes on both models. Euro really torches at the end of the run. Once 2/15 hits forget about sustained snow cover, or cold weather for that matter. We'll get a transient shot of cold, and perhaps a storm. But for all intensive purposes, we've turn the corner toward Spring. What cold shot this week are you reffering to? We did slip back from the 50's to lower 40's/upper 30's. 108 hours out brings the first cold shot... Then 180 hours out brings a bigger one. The 108 hours out cold shot looks more of a lock then the second. It all depends on what you want. I want Lake effect for the UP of Michigan. I snowmobile up there regularly and my next trip is in 11 days. If you want system snow in Ohio... Ya, its probably not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 108 hours out brings the first cold shot... Then 180 hours out brings a bigger one. The 108 hours out cold shot looks more of a lock then the second. It all depends on what you want. I want Lake effect for the UP of Michigan. I snowmobile up there regularly and my next trip is in 11 days. If you want system snow in Ohio... Ya, its probably not going to happen. I see... probably why I was confused... UP snow threats in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 With the lack of action board wide I pretty much jump on any active thread I can. The cold pertains to all of us... I'm not really thinking about snow down here... First we need the cold... Then we can chat about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No joke, a city of Cleveland salt truck just came down my street pouring salt everywhere. It's sunny outside, hasn't precipitated in days and doesn't look to in the near future! Glad to see they have so much money to waste and have the imagination to at least pretend it's snowing outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No joke, a city of Cleveland salt truck just came down my street pouring salt everywhere. It's sunny outside, hasn't precipitated in days and doesn't look to in the near future! Glad to see they have so much money to waste and have the imagination to at least pretend it's snowing outside! That's nothing, I once saw a plow scraping a road that was dry. Sparks were flying, and pieces of asphalt were being torn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No joke, a city of Cleveland salt truck just came down my street pouring salt everywhere. It's sunny outside, hasn't precipitated in days and doesn't look to in the near future! Glad to see they have so much money to waste and have the imagination to at least pretend it's snowing outside! My house got into the northern edge of some wet snow yesterday morning that amounted to nothing. The FDY to MFD to CAK corridor did see 2-4" yesterday, so I guess not all is lost They also salted the roads out here and may clean car is now not clean. I believe you posted that CLE needs to average 36.0 degrees this month to become the warmest winter on record at CLE...through the first 4 days, CLE has averaged 38.3. That may increase a tick or two over the next couple days and will likely lower a little as we head into the weekend. This record may be broken and is worth tracking if we don't have anything actually wintry to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No joke, a city of Cleveland salt truck just came down my street pouring salt everywhere. It's sunny outside, hasn't precipitated in days and doesn't look to in the near future! Glad to see they have so much money to waste and have the imagination to at least pretend it's snowing outside! The Board of Revisions in Cuyahoga recently rejected my appeal to reduce my property taxes, so perhaps he was just using "their money"? Joke (not really). Back on topic: What a beautiful day today. There were a few cumulus clouds around Chagrin Falls around 1 p.m. but other than that a picture perfect day. It's amazing what a little sunshine will do to people from Northern Ohio, at the park I would have thought it was 60 degrees outside the way kids were playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 My house got into the northern edge of some wet snow yesterday morning that amounted to nothing. The FDY to MFD to CAK corridor did see 2-4" yesterday, so I guess not all is lost They also salted the roads out here and may clean car is now not clean. I believe you posted that CLE needs to average 36.0 degrees this month to become the warmest winter on record at CLE...through the first 4 days, CLE has averaged 38.3. That may increase a tick or two over the next couple days and will likely lower a little as we head into the weekend. This record may be broken and is worth tracking if we don't have anything actually wintry to track. This week looks to be about average, I don't think warmest winter (at Hopkins) is likely, but certainly top 5. It doesn't feel at all like mid winter right now. The snow that fell in December almost feels like last season. I'm sure it's the same for the folks on the east coast (especially those who saw 15"+) from the October snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I was outisde for an hour this afternoon in shorts in a T-shirt. Yeah, the high was only like 45, but the sun made it fantastic outisde today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The Board of Revisions in Cuyahoga recently rejected my appeal to reduce my property taxes, so perhaps he was just using "their money"? Joke (not really). Back on topic: What a beautiful day today. There were a few cumulus clouds around Chagrin Falls around 1 p.m. but other than that a picture perfect day. It's amazing what a little sunshine will do to people from Northern Ohio, at the park I would have thought it was 60 degrees outside the way kids were playing. People are definitely out enjoying the winter sun. I think even if we have a cool/normal week ahead, there should still be sunshine which will make all the difference, unless we get some fog to develop. Lake temps are 34 at Cleveland (well below surface), 38 at Toledo, and 37 at Erie. We are basically looking at mid to upper 30s surface temperatures on Lake Erie which is virtually ice free. Those will likely cool a bit over the week ... but wow, with the right set up that would make quite the event for February. I fully expect a repeat of Easter 2007 ... a cruel payback to all those snow haters who have enjoyed the springlike winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 People are definitely out enjoying the winter sun. I think even if we have a cool/normal week ahead, there should still be sunshine which will make all the difference, unless we get some fog to develop. Lake temps are 34 at Cleveland (well below surface), 38 at Toledo, and 37 at Erie. We are basically looking at mid to upper 30s surface temperatures on Lake Erie which is virtually ice free. Those will likely cool a bit over the week ... but wow, with the right set up that would make quite the event for February. I fully expect a repeat of Easter 2007 ... a cruel payback to all those snow haters who have enjoyed the springlike winter. I'll take sunny and well above average through February to see a repeat of April 07. Add April 05 to the list as well, although that whole winter was just a whole different animal. For snow lovers, at this juncture, it's getting to the point where we can hope for a nice snowstorm, but the odds of sustained snowcover really start to dwindle once March arives. And, it looks like the odds of a decent snow cover developing in the next week look nill, and after a week we are already into mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The 10-day European shows a 850 temperature for CLE of +9°C (the ensemble is a lot more zonal). It looks like our return to normal temperatures later this week will be short lived. It's difficult to even get the -8°C isotherm to be across any part of the continental 48-states. There just isn't ANY arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The one thing about the sunny clear weather is that while it allows for temps to surge well above average during the day, at night you can get quick radiational cooling to near normal. So the positive temp departures don't get too out of hand. A high of 45 with sun/low of 22 is no different than a dreary day of 36/31 in the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The one thing about the sunny clear weather is that while it allows for temps to surge well above average during the day, at night you can get quick radiational cooling to near normal. So the positive temp departures don't get too out of hand. A high of 45 with sun/low of 22 is no different than a dreary day of 36/31 in the record books. Good point. And a sunny and 45° day is a heck of a lot better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Chalk up another 50 degree day downtown. Just a handful of days below freezing and probably not for more than 60 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Chalk up another 50 degree day downtown. Just a handful of days below freezing and probably not for more than 60 hours or so. This winter is a lot like 2001-02, just awful. But I think better than despair over what we're not getting, look at what we are getting: a break from a string of nasty winters, esp 2010-11, and no reason to keep checking this board for model updates and analyses. I am sure next winter will be better so for now all we can do is sit back and enjoy the clear, blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like our stretch of mild sunny days is coming to an end. Back to seasonable weather. The dry weather has been welcome... the pond that shouldn't exist in my yard is almost gone. The LES set-up this weekend looks awful dry. There will probably be a nice band in W PA with a fetch off of Lake Huron. The boring pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like our stretch of mild sunny days is coming to an end. Back to seasonable weather. The dry weather has been welcome... the pond that shouldn't exist in my yard is almost gone. The LES set-up this weekend looks awful dry. There will probably be a nice band in W PA with a fetch off of Lake Huron. The boring pattern continues. Probably another widespread dusting to 2" with frontal passage and then meager LES afterwards. Doesn't look too exciting and will just exacerbate the misery of this winter. I guess we keep our eyes on the fantasy storm in the extended long range. The damage has been done already this winter, with + departures already achieved, no arctic blast is capable of erasing this winter from the torch category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Probably another widespread dusting to 2" with frontal passage and then meager LES afterwards. Doesn't look too exciting and will just exacerbate the misery of this winter. I guess we keep our eyes on the fantasy storm in the extended long range. The damage has been done already this winter, with + departures already achieved, no arctic blast is capable of erasing this winter from the torch category. No doubt about that! It all comes down to what # place this region ends up on the mild winter scale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Probably another widespread dusting to 2" with frontal passage and then meager LES afterwards. Doesn't look too exciting and will just exacerbate the misery of this winter. I guess we keep our eyes on the fantasy storm in the extended long range. The damage has been done already this winter, with + departures already achieved, no arctic blast is capable of erasing this winter from the torch category. I'm pretty used to the mild weather at this point so I wouldn't care if we rolled right into Spring. The elusive fanstasy storm would be nice. Outside of that the mild weather is better than the teases of cold and snow. LES never does well with bone dry arctic air. 2" or less will probably be it with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 A nice piece of jet energy will clip us over the next 12 hours, might see some light flurry action up this way, but likely nothing on the ground in the Cleveland metro. Friday into the weekend will once again turn cold, as ridging over western Canada combined with a dislodging of the polar vortex will allow arctic air to be tapped and sent down, with the bullseye being the Great Lakes east towards PA/upstate NY and New England: A potent shortwave right now is progged by both the GFS and Euro to swing through Friday night on the leading edge of this arctic airmass. There will likely be some snow showers with the arctic front, especially downwind of the lake where the lake will likely contribute to the amount of moisture that can pool ahead of the front. This may be enough to whitten the ground in many areas. Outside of snow showers with a Friday night frontal passage, details are still a bit sketchy. If a surface low can spin up along the front as the Euro has shown for a few runs now, convergence may linger over the Snow Belt and result in a quick accumulation of some snow Friday night into early Saturday. Wind direction will likely turn more northerly to NNW behind the front Saturday morning, which may allow Lake Huron to enhance snow somewhere over north central or north eastern Ohio. Elsewhere, the shallow/dry nature of the arctic air mass will likely limit lake effect once any synoptic moisture associated with the shortwave exits stage right Saturday morning. The models are differing in how fast they bring ridging in which will affect how long any lake effect ultimately lasts. All in all, looking like another shot to briefly cover the ground with snow over the weekend, with the potential for a few inches of snow in the Snow Belt Friday night-Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Advisory type snows Friday night? I think it'd be a long shot. AS THE COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FLOWS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE COLD AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE LAKE. IF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IS AS DRY AS THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE IT WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN ANY EVENT IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 At this point i'd be pleased with a grass covering snow so it at least will look like winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It will be interesting to see what we get out of friday night. probably just another 1-2 maybe 3 to add salt to the wounds. lol. well for the past 3 weeks i've been stuck at 41.0" on the year and been trying to work my way up to 42". Picked up 0.2" today taking me up to 41.2" so at this rate by april i might get there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 And imo are chances of sustained snow cover or actual winter with extended periods below freezing have sadly dissapeared imo. Next week looks warm and that puts us already to 15-17 of the month. Averages going up quickly and sun angle getting strong. Probably just shooting for shots of cold with snow mixed in and hopefully an actual snowstorm somewhere along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'll be surprised if we see any more than 1-3" with the arctic front and LES behind it. I just can't recall any LES events that produce with this set-up... low inversion, short fetch and dry arctic air. Areas that get under a band connected to lake huron may do ok. Hopefully there will be more moisture around than what the models indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'll be surprised if we see any more than 1-3" with the arctic front and LES behind it. I just can't recall any LES events that produce with this set-up... low inversion, short fetch and dry arctic air. Areas that get under a band connected to lake huron may do ok. Hopefully there will be more moisture around than what the models indicate. The timing keeps getting pushed back as well. Originally it was looking like an afternoon passage, but now its looking like it will pass later in the evening. These generally flare up just before sunset and then die down a bit afterwards. So if we are looking at a 10pm passage, it might not be as impressive as those who get hit around 4pm. Then again we're talking about the difference between 1" or 2". I'd rather stay dry and hope for the fantasy storm at day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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