Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[Jonger]

Yeah. What's really odd is how much the AFD has been mentioning the upcoming "rain event" for tonight through Thursday morning. This is going to be for the most part a non event. The models have consistently shown between nothing and a tenth of an inch of rain for the area yet likely pops are in the forecast and long discussions about the rain prospects continue. They must be bored over at CLE with the lack of "weather" the past two weeks. I wish they gave that much insight in the AFD when a major winter storm is only a day or two away.

Seasonal normal of 68 inches? Are you on the NE side of the city now?

[OHSnow]

Seasonal normal of 68 inches? Are you on the NE side of the city now?

That's the 1981-2010 normal for Cleveland Hopkins International, on the southwest side.

[Shsg Falls]

I wonder if it will be just a bit too warm at the surface Thursday night for any accumulating snow except in the highest of elevations in the primary snow belt? Also, it looks like the wind will mainly be westerly. There will be a lot of instability though. The air seems very "Pacificish" behind this low.

[Trent]

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST...THE LAKE AND 850 MBTEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 18C AND THE LAKE AND 500 MBTEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER 40C...SO ADDED THUNDER TO THELAKE AND SNOW BELT AREAS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. THERAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW QUICKLY IN THE INLAND SNOW BELTAREAS...THE LAKESHORE AREAS COULD BE TRICKY. THE SOUNDINGS AREQUITE UNSTABLE AND THE BASE OF THE INVERSION IS NEAR 15 THOUSANDFEET. THIS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT SO SOME SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON THEGRASSY AREAS AND CARS AND EVEN SOME WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS. THEWIND DIRECTION IS NOT THE BEST FOR A REAL LONG FETCH BUT WITH THEDIFFERENTIAL AND THE UNSTABLE AIR...WINTRY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDEDEVENTUALLY. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

[OHweather]

The 0z GFS and Euro have more or less stayed consistent for Thursday night-Friday morning...the NAM is also beginning to see out into that time period and is also similar to the GFS/Euro...here is a look at forecast skew-t's valid for 6z Friday off of the 0z NAM and 0z GFS...

NAM:

GFS:

All three models show a warm boundary layer Thursday evening, but all three models show the 850mb temps dropping to -6 to -8 by late evening as the upper level shortwave swings through and the flow becomes more WNWrly. The GFS/NAM still show inversions of above 10k ft until early Friday morning along with moisture up to around 10k ft and into the lower portion of the dendrite growth zone into early Friday. So, lake effect precipitation seems likely, especially in the primary Snow Belt Thursday night-Friday morning.

If precipitation falls moderately hard with 850mb temps of -6 to -8, it will snow perhaps down close to the lake shore and it will accumulate inland. Whether it takes 800 feet of elevation to see accumulation or 1100 feet remains to be seen, however if current models hold the lower end of that elevation range may see some light accumulation. There is only an 8-10 hour window for lake effect from late Thursday evening through mid Friday morning and the winds will slowly be shifting from the W to WNW. This combined with a warm boundary layer to start may make it hard for even the higher elevations to see the 4" advisory criteria, although I still think 1-3" is reasonably possible in the higher elevations from eastern Cuyahoga county points east with an outside chance at an advisory criteria snow if we do see a nice W-E or WNW-ESE band set up with decent rates for a few hours.

[NEOH]

It's looking more and more like just few snow showers tomorrow night. It will be nice to see a few flakes in the air... but just a tease at best.

The weather has been great the past couple of days. Let's save the real cold for Dec - Feb.

[Trent]

It's looking more and more like just few snow showers tomorrow night. It will be nice to see a few flakes in the air... but just a tease at best.

The weather has been great the past couple of days. Let's save the real cold for Dec - Feb.

Yep, if we're gonna dry torch, might as well do it November.

The past few Novembers haven't been snowy either, and have had no bearing on the following winter.

[OHweather]

The models have essentially remained unchanged since yesterday for Thursday night, and some of the short range meso-scale models are now out to Friday morning, adding some clarity to the situation.

The 12z NAM, 12z GFS, and 0z European model runs all show 850mb temps of -5 over the lake and much of Ohio by 0z Friday, and quickly advect in 850mb temps of -6 to -8 over the course of the evening. This is in response to an upper level shortwave and secondary cold front moving through the area Thursday evening. As the shortwave moves through, the models develop a deep cyclonic flow over the lakes and show an increase in mid level humidity, resulting in steep low level lapse rates, high inversions and some mid level moisture to help seed lake effect.

The 12z NAM skew-t for Cleveland right along the lake shore valid 9z Friday, courtesy of wunderground.com shows a relatively uniform WNWrly flow of 20-30 knots in the lowest 20k feet of the atmosphere, with reasonable moisture and instability up through about 13-14k feet. This moisture and instability go through the whole dendrite growth zone. This would certainly support lake effect activity through much of the night.

As the secondary cold front passes through Thursday evening, it is reasonable to assume that scattered showers might break out area wide across a good chunk of northern Ohio as some synoptic lift moves through. After this front passes, the flow will start shifting from westerly to WNWrly and potentially more NWrly by early Friday morning. Given a deep cyclonic flow with deep moisture through the lower-mid levels, high inversions and plenty of instability with lake-850mb delta-t’s of -16 to -18C and the lake-500mb differential around -40C, this supports robust lake effect development over the lake starting around 0z Friday.

Given the wind direction the best banding may initially be concentrated along the eastern lake shore. However, the winds will slowly gain more of a northerly component, shifting the initial band inland into the primary Snow Belt and perhaps favoring another convergence band for a period of time along the western lake shore into the southern/eastern suburbs. If the flow goes almost northwesterly like some models do show by early Friday, the convergence bands may dissipate and be replaced by more of a multi-band setup, which favors the higher terrain inland from the lake.

Accumulations remain tricky…temperatures will start out in the lower 40s Thursday evening which supports rain or mixed showers initially. However, with sufficiently cold temperatures not far above the surface I believe that it will not take long to switch to snow as the evening progresses. Areas along the lake shore and the lower elevations are the exception, where I’m not sure there will be a period of all snow or notable accumulations. Snow should be accumulating in the higher elevations by midnight Friday. My guess is areas above 800 feet will see some accumulations under any heavier bands and that areas above 1000 feet will do well.

The shifting of bands may make it hard for any one area to really cash in. However, the 12z NAM shows .1-.25” of liquid equivalent over most of the Snow Belt and the 12z NMM/ARW mesoscale models show a large area of .25”-.5”+ liquid equivalent. Given instability into the dendrite growth zone and a rather unstable environment I believe over a quarter inch of liquid equivalent could occur where bands persist, and I do think there could be decent snow rates in the higher elevations where the whole column will be at or below freezing overnight. So, I believe a general 2-4” seems possible above 1000’ from eastern Cuyahoga county eastward. Between 800-1000’ 1-3” seems possible in the Snow Belt. Lower elevations will likely remain too warm for much accumulation. The higher elevations in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, northern Summit and northern Portage counties could also see 1-3”, especially if winds do become more northwest overnight Thursday into early Friday. The event should wind down Friday morning.

My best guess at this time:

[NEOH]

The models have essentially remained unchanged since yesterday for Thursday night, and some of the short range meso-scale models are now out to Friday morning, adding some clarity to the situation.

The 12z NAM, 12z GFS, and 0z European model runs all show 850mb temps of -5 over the lake and much of Ohio by 0z Friday, and quickly advect in 850mb temps of -6 to -8 over the course of the evening. This is in response to an upper level shortwave and secondary cold front moving through the area Thursday evening. As the shortwave moves through, the models develop a deep cyclonic flow over the lakes and show an increase in mid level humidity, resulting in steep low level lapse rates, high inversions and some mid level moisture to help seed lake effect.

The 12z NAM skew-t for Cleveland right along the lake shore valid 9z Friday, courtesy of wunderground.com shows a relatively uniform WNWrly flow of 20-30 knots in the lowest 20k feet of the atmosphere, with reasonable moisture and instability up through about 13-14k feet. This moisture and instability go through the whole dendrite growth zone. This would certainly support lake effect activity through much of the night.

As the secondary cold front passes through Thursday evening, it is reasonable to assume that scattered showers might break out area wide across a good chunk of northern Ohio as some synoptic lift moves through. After this front passes, the flow will start shifting from westerly to WNWrly and potentially more NWrly by early Friday morning. Given a deep cyclonic flow with deep moisture through the lower-mid levels, high inversions and plenty of instability with lake-850mb delta-t’s of -16 to -18C and the lake-500mb differential around -40C, this supports robust lake effect development over the lake starting around 0z Friday.

Given the wind direction the best banding may initially be concentrated along the eastern lake shore. However, the winds will slowly gain more of a northerly component, shifting the initial band inland into the primary Snow Belt and perhaps favoring another convergence band for a period of time along the western lake shore into the southern/eastern suburbs. If the flow goes almost northwesterly like some models do show by early Friday, the convergence bands may dissipate and be replaced by more of a multi-band setup, which favors the higher terrain inland from the lake.

Accumulations remain tricky…temperatures will start out in the lower 40s Thursday evening which supports rain or mixed showers initially. However, with sufficiently cold temperatures not far above the surface I believe that it will not take long to switch to snow as the evening progresses. Areas along the lake shore and the lower elevations are the exception, where I’m not sure there will be a period of all snow or notable accumulations. Snow should be accumulating in the higher elevations by midnight Friday. My guess is areas above 800 feet will see some accumulations under any heavier bands and that areas above 1000 feet will do well.

The shifting of bands may make it hard for any one area to really cash in. However, the 12z NAM shows .1-.25” of liquid equivalent over most of the Snow Belt and the 12z NMM/ARW mesoscale models show a large area of .25”-.5”+ liquid equivalent. Given instability into the dendrite growth zone and a rather unstable environment I believe over a quarter inch of liquid equivalent could occur where bands persist, and I do think there could be decent snow rates in the higher elevations where the whole column will be at or below freezing overnight. So, I believe a general 2-4” seems possible above 1000’ from eastern Cuyahoga county eastward. Between 800-1000’ 1-3” seems possible in the Snow Belt. Lower elevations will likely remain too warm for much accumulation. The higher elevations in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, northern Summit and northern Portage counties could also see 1-3”, especially if winds do become more northwest overnight Thursday into early Friday. The event should wind down Friday morning.

My best guess at this time:

Excellent analysis. Thanks for putting this together. Your snow map looks good. I think one big factor is how quickly the ridging moves in from the SW. Even though my location is just over 1k ft... I'm actually hoping the snow does not stick. I'd rather it just rip the remaining oak leaves down so I can clean the yard and gutters for the last time this season.

[OHweather]

Excellent analysis. Thanks for putting this together. Your snow map looks good. I think one big factor is how quickly the ridging moves in from the SW. Even though my location is just over 1k ft... I'm actually hoping the snow does not stick. I'd rather it just rip the remaining oak leaves down so I can clean the yard and gutters for the last time this season.

Thanks!

It looks like the ridging will really want to build in Friday morning after 12z, although right now it looks like the best lake effect conditions will occur solidly in the overnight time period, which would favor accumulation assuming some decent bands set up.

I still have slight fears of a warm boundary layer really keeping things in check, especially if the winds turn more NWrly and blow the air over the 50 degree lake right on inland.

[Trent]

Using last November 6th as a proxy, snow started to stick around E 79th street in Cleveland. The difference between Warrensville Center and Richmond Roads was incredible, went from 2" to 7" for a nominal elevation gain.

At the lakeshore snow mixed in with the heavier returns and went back to rain when the intensity decreased. The WRF really pumps out moisture for the east side. The BUF mesoscale models will also be in range this evening.

[OHweather]

Using last November 6th as a proxy, snow started to stick around E 79th street in Cleveland. The difference between Warrensville Center and Richmond Roads was incredible, went from 2" to 7" for a nominal elevation gain.

At the lakeshore snow mixed in with the heavier returns and went back to rain when the intensity decreased. The WRF really pumps out moisture for the east side. The BUF mesoscale models will also be in range this evening.

I had that event from last November in mind when drawing my map.

From the 5th into the 6th (overnight) there was 1-3" in the higher elevations above 1000', with relatively insignificant accums below 1000'.

The next day a much stronger lake enhanced band set up and crushed the east side into the Snow Belt, and areas a couple hundred feet lower got into the act as well.

Given the instability and similar temp profiles, resulting in the potential for rather intense bands for a time I think we might see areas that saw accums last November 6th during the day see accums this go around as well (elevation wise).

[NEOH]

Using last November 6th as a proxy, snow started to stick around E 79th street in Cleveland. The difference between Warrensville Center and Richmond Roads was incredible, went from 2" to 7" for a nominal elevation gain.

At the lakeshore snow mixed in with the heavier returns and went back to rain when the intensity decreased. The WRF really pumps out moisture for the east side. The BUF mesoscale models will also be in range this evening.

I forgot that happened last November. Must be getting old. Shaker Heights was the jackpot area I believe. I remember having around 2-3 inches IMBY, yet about 1 mile west near Richmond/Cedar there was at least 6 inches.

[OHweather]

I forgot that happened last November. Must be getting old. Shaker Heights was the jackpot area I believe. I remember having around 2-3 inches IMBY, yet about 1 mile west near Richmond/Cedar there was at least 6 inches.

The gradient with that one was insane. You could drive up a 150 foot hill and go from nothing on the ground to 3"+...or drive a mile down the road and see a 3" difference due to the sharp cutoff to the precip. The snow level was obviously right at where much of the area is situated elevation wise, and the band had a very sharp cutoff, although the sharp cutoffs do happen from time to time

[Trent]

[Trent]

Regardless of whether it's snow or not, or how much accumulates inland, it will be fun to watch the evolutions of the bands.

[NEOH]

Regardless of whether it's snow or not, or how much accumulates inland, it will be fun to watch the evolutions of the bands.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Winds are projected to be just north of due west 270-280... which would favor a single band, thus heavier precip. I believe the models had a more NW'erly flow yesterday.

[OHweather]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Winds are projected to be just north of due west 270-280... which would favor a single band, thus heavier precip. I believe the models had a more NW'erly flow yesterday.

The models are now taking until almost 4am Friday to turn the winds more northwesterly, thus potentially favoring a primary W-E convergence band for several hours. This could certainly warrant an advisory for Geauga and Inland Ashtabula Counties, with northeastern Cuyahoga being borderline due to lower elevation and proximity to the lake.

I still think the winds gain enough of a northerly component to dust the southern/eastern suburbs as well right around the morning rush with what's left of any bands from overnight.

[OHweather]

Just took a closer look at the models...there are some timing differences WRT how fast the winds shift...

All of the images are valid 6z Friday, from the most recent run of the model available as of this writing...

RUC:

NAM:

GFS:

Euro:

NMM:

The short range, mesoscale models (RUC, NAM, NMM) seem to hang onto a more westerly flow for longer, while the GFS/Euro still show a more northwesterly flow taking over around 6z.

Given we are in the short range, I would tend to give the nod to the slower change in wind direction, although it will be interesting to watch.

If you quote this, please take out the images

[NEOH]

The models are now taking until almost 4am Friday to turn the winds more northwesterly, thus potentially favoring a primary W-E convergence band for several hours. This could certainly warrant an advisory for Geauga and Inland Ashtabula Counties, with northeastern Cuyahoga being borderline due to lower elevation and proximity to the lake.

I still think the winds gain enough of a northerly component to dust the southern/eastern suburbs as well right around the morning rush with what's left of any bands from overnight.

I wish the CLE WRF was operating properly on the website. It generally has a southern bias to the band location but can give you a general idea of where the bands will set-up. These early season LES events always have some surprises. I just don't see the winds coming around from any more that 270-280 direction. Classic primary band wind direction. Now the only questions are surface temps, when the winds turn, when ridging builds in . There are always more questions than answers when it comes to LES. If the BUF WFR data Trent posted verifies places from NE Cuyahoga through Northern Geauga will get blasted.

[OHweather]

I wish the CLE WRF was operating properly on the website. It generally has a southern bias to the band location but can give you a general idea of where the bands will set-up. These early season LES events always have some surprises. I just don't see the winds coming around from any more that 270-280 direction. Classic primary band wind direction. Now the only questions are surface temps, when the winds turn, when ridging builds in . There are always more questions than answers when it comes to LES. If the BUF WFR data Trent posted verifies places from NE Cuyahoga through Northern Geauga will get blasted.

It hasn't been for quite some time

FWIW, the 15z HRRR through 5z tonight sets up a primary band over eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga counties and deposits 4-5" of snow centered near Moreland hills through the end of that run at 5z.

The WRFs that I have seen do seem to favor the area you mentioned, and I might just have to take a drive late tonight or early tomorrow. I still think the southern and eastern suburbs get a taste, but probably don't see more than perhaps an inch. When the winds back is key...if it happens at 1am as opposed to 4-5am, that could make a huge difference.

[Trent]

Well the latest NAM shifts the winds a bit earlier. I can't wait to see how many tenths of an inch of LER I wake to. Unfortunately by the time I can drive to the east side tomorrow afternoon it will be gone.

Btw, how does this set up compare to the lake effect (rain) band overnight back on October 21, that gave me 0.80" inches.

[NEOH]

It hasn't been for quite some time

FWIW, the 15z HRRR through 5z tonight sets up a primary band over eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga counties and deposits 4-5" of snow centered near Moreland hills through the end of that run at 5z.

The WRFs that I have seen do seem to favor the area you mentioned, and I might just have to take a drive late tonight or early tomorrow. I still think the southern and eastern suburbs get a taste, but probably don't see more than perhaps an inch. When the winds back is key...if it happens at 1am as opposed to 4-5am, that could make a huge difference.

First soggy flakes of the year just fell at the office in Chagrin. I guess boundary temps won't be a concern later tonight . My home is near the 271/Cedar exit... my gut tells me I'm even too far south. It seems the models always want to turn the winds more NW'erly than what actually occurs. I remember LEK explained this awhile back. Something about lake induced troughing, along with the shoreline configuration keeping the winds more westerly than what the models show.

[NEOH]

Well the latest NAM shifts the winds a bit earlier. I can't wait to see how many tenths of an inch of LER I wake to . Unfortunately by the time I can drive to the east side tomorrow afternoon it will be gone.

Btw, how does this set up compare to the lake effect (rain) band overnight back on October 21, that gave me 0.80" inches.

C'mon. Your in the game for tonight. Lakewood due east gets first measurable snowfall.

[OHweather]

First soggy flakes of the year just fell at the office in Chagrin. I guess boundary temps won't be a concern later tonight . My home is near the 271/Cedar exit... my gut tells me I'm even too far south. It seems the models always want to turn the winds more NW'erly than what actually occurs. I remember LEK explained this awhile back. Something about lake induced troughing, along with the shoreline configuration keeping the winds more westerly than what the models show.

Right now I think the 322 corridor may get hit hardest...probably from Mayfield points east. I remember that explanation from way back on eastern, faintly. Will really just have to wait and see where the banding sets up, although right now signs are pointing to a classic W-E convergence band, slowly sagging south through the night into the AM.

Saw a rain shower a little bit ago, no snow here yet. Sun peaking back out.

[OHweather]

Lake effect snow advisory Ashtabula inland, Erie Inland, PA and Crawford, PA.

CLE does not understand how banding will form with a westerly flow, they have had issues with this before. Geauga needs to be in that advisory.

[NEOH]

Right now I think the 322 corridor may get hit hardest...probably from Mayfield points east. I remember that explanation from way back on eastern, faintly. Will really just have to wait and see where the banding sets up, although right now signs are pointing to a classic W-E convergence band, slowly sagging south through the night into the AM.

Saw a rain shower a little bit ago, no snow here yet. Sun peaking back out.

Even though I live less than a mile south of 322, I'm hoping its north of there honestly. Too much yard work left to do this weekend.

My call is that from Trents backyard through Chardon gets hit. Winds are fairly light so there might a nice covergence area along the lakeshore keeping the snow from pushing south.

[OHweather]

Even though I live less than a mile south of 322, I'm hoping its north of there honestly. Too much yard work left to do this weekend.

My call is that from Trents backyard through Chardon gets hit. Winds are fairly light so there might a nice covergence area along the lakeshore keeping the snow from pushing south.

I don't see Trent getting a good hit unless some heavy rates set up shopm over him for a few hours, the lake is just too warm IMO.

[NEOH]

I don't see Trent getting a good hit unless some heavy rates set up shopm over him for a few hours, the lake is just too warm IMO.

Even though lake temps are warm dynamic cooling should do the job. It's going to take heavy precip rates, but that's what I'm expecting with the primary band set up. If multi-bands set up forget about it.

My post about the jackpot area was mostly a joke. My yard is a disaster after last nights winds so I'm trying to wish the snow away. The oaks lost a lot of leaves. Gutters are overflowing with leaves. I would hate to waste the weekend watching a few inches of slushy snow melt.

[wxdudemike]

Quite a few reports of snow in Cincinnati this afternoon. Hoping to see some here in Columbus!