Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[michsnowfreak]

It's been a few days since it dipped below 32 and it was 45 yesterday and early this morning, so the snow is rapidly melting. If you didn't measure the instant it stopped snowing, you won't have anything to measure. The past two days have been nothing but stat padders. These are the events that probably never made it to the record books in the old days.

very true that you needed to measure as soon as snow stopped. 0.7" of slushy snow that slowly began melting as soon as the snow stopped (7am) and gone by about 1pm. Stat padder, perhaps (I called it "April snow"), but one thing of note. This sort of event certainly would have made it into the record books in the old days. Its clear that they cared more about detailed weather observations back in the day. Ive seen old weather record books (written in ink) for Detroit and they are fascinating.

[Shsg Falls]

Oh and btw, officially the liquid equivalent at CLE for last Friday into Saturday was 0.13" while this mornings was 0.15".

What's up with lowering the totals for last weekend, this time the liquid equivalent? I swear it was more a few days ago. I think even the METAR hourly obs added to about 0.25"

There is no data integrity in the weather world, calling it "science" is a joke.

You may want to e-mail the NWS CLE and get the details on how they measure snowfall and liquid equivalent precipitation, and under what conditions they change the amount(s) in the daily climatic summaries.

It's difficult to explain and doesn't make much sense, but this is the federal government and sometimes things aren't as rational as they should be.

A while back the NWS at CLE did the weather observations at the airport. As the NWS modernized they got out of the weather observing business, most of the offices moved away from airports. Because ASOS wasn't doing the job it was supposed to (originally supposed to be a stand-alone unit, hardy har har), the FAA took responsibility for weather observing and hired private contractors to do weather observations at the airports that are busy, or have really bad weather (or both). Most airports just have a stand alone ASOS, but places like CAK, CLE and YNG have observers.

The FAA doesn't particularly care about precipitation amounts, and like every other federal agency their budget only goes so far. So, the observers at CAK, CLE and YNG probably don't have very much back-up equipment, and I'm guessing they do not have a 4-in or 8-in manual rain gauge so they won't be editing any precipitation amounts in the METARs. In fact, even if they notice bad precipitation amount data they aren't required to edit it. CLE, CAK and YNG are service level "A" sites, the standards on what they must add or edit are located in this document:

http://apps.avmet.com/awad/Documentation.cfm

These stations also add snow depth and cloud type in their METAR reports, probably through an agreement with the NWS CLE.

About a decade ago, ASOS units had a heated tipping bucket rain gauge which did a very poor job at measuring snow liquid equivalents. A new gauge was installed, but it still leaves a bit to be desired:

http://www.nws.noaa....awpagimplan.pdf

Another negative is this gauge is located out near the runways, so if it breaks down it takes days to get it repaired. And it isn't the observers job to repair it, there is probably a techy from the NWS that does it. The ASOS is "owned" by the NWS, but the person that augments the ASOS is a contractor for the FAA. Make sense? It's enough to make a head spin.

When the ASOS precipitation amounts are way off, or the gauge is broken, the NWS at CLE (which is one of the few still located at a airport) may have a 8" metal rain gauge so they can edit the climate data. They may also run a cooperative station (max/min temperatures) as well for their own records. I'm not sure about this, so check with them. I know the NWS ALB (ALY) has their own.

As you can see, this is much more complicated than it needs to be, and of course some data will get left out. Even with all the technology available today, the best way to measure liquid equivalents is with a 4-in plastic or 8-in measure rain gauge.

As far as snowfall depth, I don't know where the ASOS observer measures that specifically. A few years ago, places like JFK in New York used a plastic lunch tray on the top of the roof at the International Arrival Building. Hardly a good place to measure snow, in fact, totally inadequate. But again, these are airports and the FAA's priority is not precipitation measurement.

Sad, but true.

Honestly, I think the best site to get precipitation data these days is CoCoRAHS.

http://www.cocorahs.org/

There are many stations and dedicated observers, yes there is bad data in there from time to time, but like you have observed, you just can't rely on the government precip data.

ASOS has been a good thing in general. There are many more stations than there were 20 years ago and although the sensors do have significant limitations I think the aviation and meteorological community have learned to deal with it. The sensors are also slowly being upgraded. However, there is still nothing like a good, quality, dedicated, properly trained observer at a site that was designed in accordance with proper weather observation techniques. Sadly, these are very, very few and far between, at least in the U.S.

[NEOH]

Moderate snow coming down this morning. Quite a surprise.

When I got home yesterday there was a still a good 1"+ on the ground and plow piles along the sides of the road so I'm thinking the 322 corridor picked up 1.5" - 2". The snow was really melting in Chagrin when I left but not near as much up this way.

[NEOH]

You may want to e-mail the NWS CLE and get the details on how they measure snowfall and liquid equivalent precipitation, and under what conditions they change the amount(s) in the daily climatic summaries.

It's difficult to explain and doesn't make much sense, but this is the federal government and sometimes things aren't as rational as they should be.

A while back the NWS at CLE did the weather observations at the airport. As the NWS modernized they got out of the weather observing business, most of the offices moved away from airports. Because ASOS wasn't doing the job it was supposed to (originally supposed to be a stand-alone unit, hardy har har), the FAA took responsibility for weather observing and hired private contractors to do weather observations at the airports that are busy, or have really bad weather (or both). Most airports just have a stand alone ASOS, but places like CAK, CLE and YNG have observers.

The FAA doesn't particularly care about precipitation amounts, and like every other federal agency their budget only goes so far. So, the observers at CAK, CLE and YNG probably don't have very much back-up equipment, and I'm guessing they do not have a 4-in or 8-in manual rain gauge so they won't be editing any precipitation amounts in the METARs. In fact, even if they notice bad precipitation amount data they aren't required to edit it. CLE, CAK and YNG are service level "A" sites, the standards on what they must add or edit are located in this document:

http://apps.avmet.co...cumentation.cfm

These stations also add snow depth and cloud type in their METAR reports, probably through an agreement with the NWS CLE.

About a decade ago, ASOS units had a heated tipping bucket rain gauge which did a very poor job at measuring snow liquid equivalents. A new gauge was installed, but it still leaves a bit to be desired:

http://www.nws.noaa....awpagimplan.pdf

Another negative is this gauge is located out near the runways, so if it breaks down it takes days to get it repaired. And it isn't the observers job to repair it, there is probably a techy from the NWS that does it. The ASOS is "owned" by the NWS, but the person that augments the ASOS is a contractor for the FAA. Make sense? It's enough to make a head spin.

When the ASOS precipitation amounts are way off, or the gauge is broken, the NWS at CLE (which is one of the few still located at a airport) may have a 8" metal rain gauge so they can edit the climate data. They may also run a cooperative station (max/min temperatures) as well for their own records. I'm not sure about this, so check with them. I know the NWS ALB (ALY) has their own.

As you can see, this is much more complicated than it needs to be, and of course some data will get left out. Even with all the technology available today, the best way to measure liquid equivalents is with a 4-in plastic or 8-in measure rain gauge.

As far as snowfall depth, I don't know where the ASOS observer measures that specifically. A few years ago, places like JFK in New York used a plastic lunch tray on the top of the roof at the International Arrival Building. Hardly a good place to measure snow, in fact, totally inadequate. But again, these are airports and the FAA's priority is not precipitation measurement.

Sad, but true.

Honestly, I think the best site to get precipitation data these days is CoCoRAHS.

http://www.cocorahs.org/

There are many stations and dedicated observers, yes there is bad data in there from time to time, but like you have observed, you just can't rely on the government precip data.

ASOS has been a good thing in general. There are many more stations than there were 20 years ago and although the sensors do have significant limitations I think the aviation and meteorological community have learned to deal with it. The sensors are also slowly being upgraded. However, there is still nothing like a good, quality, dedicated, properly trained observer at a site that was designed in accordance with proper weather observation techniques. Sadly, these are very, very few and far between, at least in the U.S.

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I've communicated with the NWS several times and have a good understanding of how they measure snow. It's such a convoluted situation it really is quite funny. But very typical of a government office.

[Trent]

Hard to believe that this month will have about normal snowfall. But I guess if you get an inch or less every day or so and it melts a few hours later it's no different than a 6"+ storm every week or so.

Judging from the visible satellite, looks like the snow didn't totally melt off inland. Just so sad, that even in the end of January, warm lake temps are helping to keep things a few degrees warmer here. I'm still waiting for some shore ice to develop on Lake Erie, but just don't see it happening this year.

Cheers to more stat padding snowfall this afternoon and I hope everyone enjoys the 50 degree weather on Tuesday!

[NEOH]

Hard to believe that this month will have about normal snowfall. But I guess if you get an inch or less every day or so and it melts a few hours later it's no different than a 6"+ storm every week or so.

Judging from the visible satellite, looks like the snow didn't totally melt off inland. Just so sad, that even in the end of January, warm lake temps are helping to keep things a few degrees warmer here. I'm still waiting for some shore ice to develop on Lake Erie, but just don't see it happening this year.

Cheers to more stat padding snowfall this afternoon and I hope everyone enjoys the 50 degree weather on Tuesday!

Above normal snowfall this month is amazing. Despite the melting there is still solid 2"+ on the ground here. Another whopping 1" to come today/tonight then torch time for a few days.

[Trent]

Above normal snowfall this month is amazing. Despite the melting there is still solid 2"+ on the ground here. Another whopping 1" to come today/tonight then torch time for a few days.

The F6 for CLE this month is a cruel joke. Near normal snowfall but hardly any snow on the ground. The past few days have been ridiculous. I can't even count the number of switches between snow on the ground/bare ground we've had this week.

I shouldn't complain too much, because sub 3" snowfall events for the lower Great Lakes generally typify the winter. But had the temps been a little more normal, we'd probably have a nice snowpack going on.

[OHweather]

The F6 for CLE this month is a cruel joke. Near normal snowfall but hardly any snow on the ground. The past few days have been ridiculous. I can't even count the number of switches between snow on the ground/bare ground we've had this week.

I shouldn't complain too much, because sub 3" snowfall events for the lower Great Lakes generally typify the winter. But had the temps been a little more normal, we'd probably have a nice snowpack going on.

On one hand, I'm happy that we have seen more snow this month, finally, on the other, the constant warm ups and rapid thaws have gotten to be heartbreaking. We had the severe thunderstorm consolation prize on the 17th, but it has been annoying to see snow 3-4 days a week (usually towards the weekend) and have nothing to show for it by Tuesday! We are going to do the same thing this week, with what appears to be more snow chances to follow by next weekend.

I'm not going to complain about the 20 minutes squall that just came through, however. Brief but very intense.

[Trent]

On one hand, I'm happy that we have seen more snow this month, finally, on the other, the constant warm ups and rapid thaws have gotten to be heartbreaking. We had the severe thunderstorm consolation prize on the 17th, but it has been annoying to see snow 3-4 days a week (usually towards the weekend) and have nothing to show for it by Tuesday! We are going to do the same thing this week, with what appears to be more snow chances to follow by next weekend.

I'm not going to complain about the 20 minutes squall that just came through, however. Brief but very intense.

The snow has fully melted here by afternoon on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and with a 42 temp just a few hours ago, the snow from the squall is already dripping off the trees and melting on the ground.

This is my snowfall so far this season by event size. I'm at 23.3"

Dec 17/, 2011

6.2

Jan 13/14, 2012

4.2

Jan 20/21, 2012

2.5

Jan 2/, 2012

2.1

Jan 19/, 2012

2

Jan 15/, 2012

2

Jan 27/, 2012

1

Jan 28/, 2012

0.6

Jan 29/, 2012

0.6

Dec 27/, 2011

0.5

Jan 18/, 2012

0.4

Jan 3/, 2012

0.4

Dec 9/, 2011

0.3

Nov 11/, 2011

0.2

Jan 1/, 2012

0.1

Nov 17/, 2011

0.1

Dec 18/, 2011

0.1

[OHweather]

The snow has fully melted here by afternoon on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and with a 42 temp just a few hours ago, the snow from the squall is already dripping off the trees and melting on the ground.

This is my snowfall so far this season by event size. I'm at 23.3"

Dec 17/, 2011

6.2

Jan 13/14, 2012

4.2

Jan 20/21, 2012

2.5

Jan 2/, 2012

2.1

Jan 19/, 2012

2

Jan 15/, 2012

2

Jan 27/, 2012

1

Jan 28/, 2012

0.6

Jan 29/, 2012

0.6

Dec 27/, 2011

0.5

Jan 18/, 2012

0.4

Jan 3/, 2012

0.4

Dec 9/, 2011

0.3

Nov 11/, 2011

0.2

Jan 1/, 2012

0.1

Nov 17/, 2011

0.1

Dec 18/, 2011

0.1

Like you mentioned, the lake is keeping you noticably warmer than just inland, which shouldn't happen in January. I have had snow on the ground since Friday morning and have seen a period of heavy snow, albeit brief, each day Friday, Saturday, and today. The warm up before the snow today did put a "dent" in the "snowpack" out here and knocked it down from just under 2" to around 1".

It is hard to believe that it is late January and you have only seen 2 4"+ events, with the largest being a surprise lake enhanced snow event in December. The early January lake effect was at least a decent "excuse" for a snowstorm inland.

[Trent]

Like you mentioned, the lake is keeping you noticably warmer than just inland, which shouldn't happen in January. I have had snow on the ground since Friday morning and have seen a period of heavy snow, albeit brief, each day Friday, Saturday, and today. The warm up before the snow today did put a "dent" in the "snowpack" out here and knocked it down from just under 2" to around 1".

It is hard to believe that it is late January and you have only seen 2 4"+ events, with the largest being a surprise lake enhanced snow event in December. The early January lake effect was at least a decent "excuse" for a snowstorm inland.

Yeah, when I saw the visible satellite shot yesterday I was surprised to see so much snow cover, albeit just an inch or two that will be long gone on Tuesday (also known as snowmeltday).

Small events are typical for the Great Lakes though, especially events like today. There just isn't enough model resolution to pick up on the main effects until a day or so out. So looking at the GFS or Euro for a week out is good for following a widespread snow, but they'll never have the resolution in advance to forecast the majority of our snow, isolated impulses that drop the perennial 1-3" stuff. Of course, every year, someone's backyard will be in an extreme isolated spot for one of these "typical" events and gets a nice 4-8" which winds up being their biggest or second biggest event of the year. So even in the crappiest of patterns without widespread storms to follow, it will snow - even if the long range looks mediocre. This month has been the perfect example of that.

I'm thinking CLE winds up with around 50-55" of snow this winter. With an open lake and a more active la nina track, it doesn't matter if there isn't a 4"+ storm the rest of this winter, a 2" inch storm every 5 days or so for the rest of the season will easily do the trick.

[Trent]

It's really no surprise why "normal" people hate Cleveland winters so much. Even the warm and mild ones have at least one of these conditions every day: horrible winds, clouds, and icy roads.

Just returned from the grocery store and it's just downright miserable out there. Try pushing a cart full of groceries across an ice rink of a parking lot in near 50 mile per hour winds and then unload into your car, would hate to be juggling small children at the same time:

CLE-LAKEFRONT FLURRIES 33 25 72 W36G47 30.05R WCI 18

[Trent]

Don't see this too often for the end of January ... where's the ice? I'd imagine this week will melt off most of any residual ice that may be floating around on Lake Erie. This definitely keeps open the possibility for a significant lake effect event/lake enhancement event sometime this month with the right set up.

[OHweather]

Another warm night, CLE at 48 degrees at midnight...with a good period of sun tomorrow, might as well shoot for 60! Record high is 62, which appears to be safe. However, with some sun and no rain forecasted, it will feel very nice out tomorrow.

[NEOH]

What a difference a day makes. Left the house this morning with temps in the upper 40's. Snow should be long gone by noon. The craptastic winter continues. I realize the models will struggle with a pattern change but the long range still looks ugly.

As Trent mentioned, lake erie will be nice and toasty so if we get the right set-up we could still get a significant lake effect event at some point. Let's just hope it's not in April.

[NEOH]

Webcam from Toledo. This area is normally locked in ice this time of the year. You can't tell if its January or June looking at the sunrise.

[Trent]

February needs to average 36.0 to make this the warmest winter at the airport. Not that big of a stretch, but probably more on the unlikely side. Barring some extreme arctic air the latter half of the month, it's a lock that it will fall into the top warmest winters list.

[OHweather]

Derived from CLE daily climate summaries…I have added today’s 50+ high, 32+ and 40+ low. This is from Dec 1-Jan 31, met winter thus far...

Highs above 50 (recorded high of 50 is minimum value): 11 (2 maxs greater than 60)

Lows above 40 (recorded low of 40 is minimum value): 3

Lows above 32 (recorded low of 33 is minimum value): 19

Highs below 32 (recorded high of 32 is maximum value): 11

Lows below 20 (recorded low of 19 is maximum value): 10

Lows below 10 (recorded low of 9 is maximum value): 1

For reference...

At CLE, the latest day with an average high of 50+ is November 18...

Latest day with an average low of 40+ is November 8.

Latest day with an average 32+ low is November 28.

Although the average high never dips below freezing at Hopkins, and the low never dips below 20, I feel the "cold" yard sticks I used show that it has only gotten truely "cold" a few times this winter in northern OH, with 19 out of 62 days not seeing a min of 32 or below!

Despite being on track, through January 31, to rank amoungst the warmest winters of all time in Cleveland, CLE has not tied or broken one daily record high in December or January!

[Trent]

Despite being on track, through January 31, to rank amoungst the warmest winters of all time in Cleveland, CLE has not tied or broken one daily record high in December or January!

Yeah, that has been impressive. But, one of the problems is that the 140 odd years for climate records is mixed between downtown and the airport, which lie in two very different microclimates. Record highs at CLE have to compete against downsloping record highs set downtown. So CLE has to be especially warm in winter to break some of these records. For example it was 59 at CLE and 63 and BKL. Any time you toss in a SW wind, the shoreline edges everyone out a few degrees.

Especially when comparing snowfall records. You really can't look at anything prior to 1948 because it's comparing apples to oranges.

For some reason snowfall just doesn't accumulate downtown. Mostly due to extreme winds buffeting between buildings, lack of any decent place for it to accumulate, and any open park spaces actually have heated garages beneath them. I tend to take any pre 1940 seasonal snowfalls with a grain of salt. Even this winter there have been days that I've left work and it's snowed all day and the front courtyard has not more than a dusting and it appears that there isn't much of anything anywhere. Yet, I'll drive 4 miles and once I reach home everything is draped in white and there's 4 inches on the ground. Considering I'm actually closer to the water here by a couple blocks, I think it has more to do with the way the street grid is laid out. Downtown streets run NW to SE, so the prevailing winter wind just rushes in between everything creating a vacuum. Streets here run NE to SW, so the prevailing wind blows perpendicular allowing snow to accumulate more evenly. It's just a fun little phenomenon that I like to watch. It's sort of like when you leave a small little town in the country side and there's 6-10" inches in the town, but once you go out into the farmlands, each farmhouse is sitting on a bare windswept lawn. Every snowfall event is impossible to measure at the lakeshore downtown and I know those old measurements faced a lot of difficulties.

[OHweather]

Yeah, that has been impressive. But, one of the problems is that the 140 odd years for climate records is mixed between downtown and the airport, which lie in two very different microclimates. Record highs at CLE have to compete against downsloping record highs set downtown. So CLE has to be especially warm in winter to break some of these records. For example it was 59 at CLE and 63 and BKL. Any time you toss in a SW wind, the shoreline edges everyone out a few degrees.

Especially when comparing snowfall records. You really can't look at anything prior to 1948 because it's comparing apples to oranges.

For some reason snowfall just doesn't accumulate downtown. Mostly due to extreme winds buffeting between buildings, lack of any decent place for it to accumulate, and any open park spaces actually have heated garages beneath them. I tend to take any pre 1940 seasonal snowfalls with a grain of salt. Even this winter there have been days that I've left work and it's snowed all day and the front courtyard has not more than a dusting and it appears that there isn't much of anything anywhere. Yet, I'll drive 4 miles and once I reach home everything is draped in white and there's 4 inches on the ground. Considering I'm actually closer to the water here by a couple blocks, I think it has more to do with the way the street grid is laid out. Downtown streets run NW to SE, so the prevailing winter wind just rushes in between everything creating a vacuum. Streets here run NE to SW, so the prevailing wind blows perpendicular allowing snow to accumulate more evenly. It's just a fun little phenomenon that I like to watch. It's sort of like when you leave a small little town in the country side and there's 6-10" inches in the town, but once you go out into the farmlands, each farmhouse is sitting on a bare windswept lawn. Every snowfall event is impossible to measure at the lakeshore downtown and I know those old measurements faced a lot of difficulties.

That is a good point.

I almost feel like the temperature/snowfall averages/records at Hopkins are a better area wide representation of averages due to being a bit farther inland from the lake, but BKL's averages/records better represtent the actual climate in the city of Cleveland as the city is right on the lake.

[NEOH]

Another Springlike morning out there with temps around 50.

Any chance we get one significant snowfall this winter... synoptic or LES? There have been one or two LES events that produced large totals... but very localized. The long range does not look promising on any of the models. I was reading in the NE subforum the euro ensembles were a disaster, but that might be limited to the EC.

I'm truly ready for Winter to end, which I posted in the complaint thread. While I'd still like to see a significant storm, it is becoming less and less likely that this will happen. I could really care less about a slop storm in late Feb or March. True winter to me is sustained cold with snow on the ground. You can't do any cold weather or warm weather outdoor activities in this type of pattern... it truly is the worst.

[Trent]

The one plus is that the heavy shower overnight was enough to clear away leftover salt residues. The snow piles that are left are few and far between now. It doesn't look like mid winter at all.

I still think we'll see a widespread 10"+ storm yet this season. Lake Erie is wide open for business, any run of the mill 6" storm could easily turn into something more significant.

[NEOH]

The one plus is that the heavy shower overnight was enough to clear away leftover salt residues. The snow piles that are left are few and far between now. It doesn't look like mid winter at all.

I still think we'll see a widespread 10"+ storm yet this season. Lake Erie is wide open for business, any run of the mill 6" storm could easily turn into something more significant.

Yep, it's going to take a combo of a mediocre synoptic system and lake enhancement to get 10+. Lowest 850 in the GFS is -11. Not promising for a serious LES dump. It will change though... hopefully for the better.

[Trent]

Pathetic that a lake breeze on February 1st is actually keeping coastal areas significantly cooler!

42 at BKL and 50 at CLE

[OHweather]

On the bright side, if there is one, CLE only ran 0.6" below normal snow wise in January. CAK saw 14.2" in January and actually ran 1.8" above normal for the month. However, CLE is 11.1" below normal on the season and CAK is still 9.1" below on the season. On a curious note, YNG has seen 36.3" on the season and is running a surpluss

My guess is YNG has not seen that much, and that CLE has seen a little more than what's reported, but I degress.

[Jonger]

Cold front from Tuesday looking more impressive. Will be some nice lake effect off this puppy.

[michsnowfreak]

I still think we'll see a widespread 10"+ storm yet this season. Lake Erie is wide open for business, any run of the mill 6" storm could easily turn into something more significant.

I echo this sentiment. First of all, I find it very hard to believe that not one significant snowstorm will traverse this region, in a Nina no less. Our stretch of recent winters can be looked at and said, well weve seen so many warning criteria snowstorms in recent winter, this is karma. Well this is true, but with winters being more active lately, I just do not believe we go a whole winter without one widespread one. And no one will convince me otherwise that it wont happen unless we have still not seen in by like April 20th. Maybe this is going to be one of those years where we get slammed in March. Outside of 2008, Marches have been mainly tame recently, in stark contrast to the rest of the winter. We have seen some wicked mid and late March snowstorms in the past, and Im not saying this means snow holds off til mid-March, just that as mild as this winter has been for everyone, wouldnt surprise me in the least.

I envy those in the lake belts. These waters are open for business. Can almost book some lake events, and even your run-of-the mill clipper can have some nice enhancment.

[Madmaxweather]

60 the first two days of the month..Down in this neck of the woods.. We have had 1.5 inches of snow so far.. Were in line for the top 3 in least snowiest winter and going for one of the warmest on record.

[Trent]

On the bright side, if there is one, CLE only ran 0.6" below normal snow wise in January. CAK saw 14.2" in January and actually ran 1.8" above normal for the month. However, CLE is 11.1" below normal on the season and CAK is still 9.1" below on the season. On a curious note, YNG has seen 36.3" on the season and is running a surpluss

My guess is YNG has not seen that much, and that CLE has seen a little more than what's reported, but I degress.

The total at CLE isn't too bad, but right now I'm estimated they are 3" too short. And well ... YNG ... if the NWS has no intention of every fixing the CLE measuring they won't bother there. Youngstown, the land of 100:1 ratios where a trace of precip overnight and only one hourly ob of light snow and 9 mile visibilities will produce 3" snows.

Considering the temps last month, the snow totals weren't too bad. It's just that they came in a boatload of 1-2" events that melted just as fast. CLE just had a trace of snow every day on the ground to end the month because every event melted within a few hours.

Still the majority of the snow that has fallen has been lake effect/enhanced. And even then the majority of lake effect events have been nothing to write home about. They've been highly localized, highly drawn out events. For the number of winter storm warnings and advisories we've had thus far this winter, you'd think otherwise. The only event worthy of mention is the band that sat over northern Lake County mid month, the rest has been run of the mill fluff.

For those that enjoy "wintertime pattern", the days are numbered. Even if the pattern does start to turn around towards mid month, the odds of building snow cover from repeated snow rapidly diminishes even in the best of years.

[Jonger]

I echo this sentiment. First of all, I find it very hard to believe that not one significant snowstorm will traverse this region, in a Nina no less. Our stretch of recent winters can be looked at and said, well weve seen so many warning criteria snowstorms in recent winter, this is karma. Well this is true, but with winters being more active lately, I just do not believe we go a whole winter without one widespread one. And no one will convince me otherwise that it wont happen unless we have still not seen in by like April 20th. Maybe this is going to be one of those years where we get slammed in March. Outside of 2008, Marches have been mainly tame recently, in stark contrast to the rest of the winter. We have seen some wicked mid and late March snowstorms in the past, and Im not saying this means snow holds off til mid-March, just that as mild as this winter has been for everyone, wouldnt surprise me in the least.

I envy those in the lake belts. These waters are open for business. Can almost book some lake events, and even your run-of-the mill clipper can have some nice enhancment.

If the GFS is right then I can see something close to warning criteria being possible. If the euro is right I really think winter is done for everyone south of 45 degrees. The mechanisms that we dont understand may have passed the point of no return on establishing a winter time pattern. Weather is a whole collection of feedbacks and cause and effect systems, we might not have that trigger out there on Feb 2nd to trigger that pattern change. Its possible that once we passed Jan 15th we might have hit the point of no return.

Lets just hope this weeks cold shot is right so the UP snowmobile trails get a reinforcing shot of 5-10 inches. After that...whatever happens... happens. I would put my money on nothing. We need another summer to reset whatever is causing this pattern.