NEOH Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm glad that I was hit with the surprise 6" back in early December. It was the only "true" storm feeling event of the year with a continual blast of heavy snow in an 8 hour window. The rest has been nuisance fluff snows of a few inches here or there. I made no attempt to even shovel the driveway or sidewalk today, especially considering amounts were half as much as expected. The sun will do its magic tomorrow and with an anticipated 41 degree low tomorrow night, most of everything will be gone. It's the days where it's 40, but low dewpoints and overnight lows in the 20s where the snow hangs around. While the advisories were most likely warranted from a travel perspective, going by the textbook definition a lot of the lakeshore counties didn't even live up to that. Hopefully the past week or so wasn't the "winter of 2011/2012" I broke down and bought a snowblower so I've been using it with every snowfall. Amazing how having a baby changes your use of time. You could really tell the difference between the fluff we've had and the sugar consistency of this snow. I flew into Chicago this afternoon and had a great view of the lake. The western basin is 99% ice covered.... mostly slush but it will probably consolidate tonight. There were streaks of ice in the cental basin as well. The good news is that the warm up should melt the ice. The bad news is that if we do get an extensive cold snap the lake will freeze quickly. We'll need to get a good set-up for the next LES as it would most likely be the last... if we get into a colder pattern of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The stationary fog bank today over most of Ohio has been amazing. Freezing fog covers a significant part of the state. Glad we are sunny and well mixed in NE Ohio today! http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=DTW&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 There is a thread for the severe threat tomorrow so I won't get too in depth here... I expect two rounds of showers and storms tomorrow...one in the morning likely between 6am and 10am and another in the afternoon between 2pm and 6pm. The first round will be the leftovers of tonight's outbreak (likely a squall line) stretching from northern IN points south fueled by up to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE and very strong wind fields just off the surface, with a 70 kt low level jet and the left-exit portion of a 100 kt upper level jet streak providing for strong large scale forcing/lift. I suspect that the storms in the morning will be on a weakening trend when they move through as they will outrun the best moisture/instability and will be running well ahead of the cold front when they move through. There will be up to 300 J/kG of MUCAPE for the morning activity to work with over northern OH and a very strong low level jet, so there will be a marginal damaging wind threat if the surface inversion isn't too strong. Right now I suspect that any severe weather with the morning activity will be over the southwestern corner of CLE's CWA. The second round of storms along the main cold front is more conditional. The ARW brings surface temps into the upper 50s tomorrow afternoon ahead of the cold front while the NAM and NMM are about 10 degrees colder. The Euro is in between the two extremes. Either way, the low level jet will remain strong through the day with 50-60kt winds at 850mb along the cold front. If the warmer surface temps verify we could see another low topped line of convection develop with a wind damage threat along the cold front. I would put the odds of CLE needing to issue at least one SVR over their CWA at over 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The GFS MOS has a 3% chance of a TS at CAK tomorrow. Doesn't seem too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A couple lightning strikes and thunder just northeast of Chagrin Falls this morning. The cloud tops only extend to about 11,000 ft (CLE WSR88D). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Looks like we will have a nice sunny spell by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 How warm will we go this time around? Definitely wash rinse repeat cycle going on. Snow is long gone. The positive temp departures at CLE have been steadily pared down, but should work their way back up this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Up and down weather for sure...woke up before 5 to soaking rains moving in with some distant flashes of lighting, but still with a solid 2" of slush on the ground. By 9 the rain/thunder was long gone and so was the snow--a period of sunshine into the early afternoon allowed temps to again surge well into the 50s, well over 20 degrees above normal. Some areas dipped down into the single digits Saturday night, just 36 hours ago. Multiple lines of low topped convection to our west and a 50 kt 925mb jet may make for more dramatic weather through the rest of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 After tomorrow (January 24th) the average daytime high at CLE starts to rise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 After tomorrow (January 24th) the average daytime high at CLE starts to rise! On the bright side, it's the coldest point of the winter (climotologically) and the lake is more or less open for buisness...have a feeling some open water appeared in the western basin with the warm temps and runoff from the rain/snow melt we are seeing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A ways off, but a little teaser from Cle about next weekend; LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. GRADIENT ACTUALLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A ways off, but a little teaser from Cle about next weekend; LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. GRADIENT ACTUALLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND Way too far in the future, but at least the Lakes are still primed to produce. IMBY over the past month, I've had nothing noteworthy. Kind of depressing to see that I've picked up almost 15" of snow recently that came in 2" increments of varying fluff only to be melted or blown away in 36 hours. Such is this winter. Today felt like a carbon copy of last week Tuesday, with an identical high at CLE erasing the entire snowcover and almost the same timing of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A ways off, but a little teaser from Cle about next weekend; LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. GRADIENT ACTUALLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND Looks like this winter will continue to come in installment plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I stopped looking at the models a few days ago hoping to come back and see something positive. Looks like the mild pattern continues for the foreseeable future... with one or two day cold shots. The potential LES event for the weekend has just about vanished. Looks like a 6 hour window of favorable conditions at best. Woke up to a slushy .3" of snow. Raining now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Same. I stopped looking at the models this week too. Sad that we have nothing to track at this point. January will probably end up slightly drier than average and probably +3 for temps. That temp isn't too extreme but don't forget we use the new normal this year so that would have been +5 last year. At this point I'm just rooting for storms. But it would not shock me if we get 20-25" more this season without anything greater than 4" in one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Nice out there... 36 and rain. With a storm moving up from the south to the east of ohio we can't even manage a slop storm. Moisture will pull out just in time for the cold air to arrive . Not sure how much additional snow this year. I agree though... it will come in small doses and probably melt within a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Nice out there... 36 and rain. With a storm moving up from the south to the east of ohio we can't even manage a slop storm. Moisture will pull out just in time for the cold air to arrive . Not sure how much additional snow this year. I agree though... it will come in small doses and probably melt within a day or two. I was surprised to see CLE pick up 0.6" of snow overnight. They must be making up for the shoddy measuring last week by overdoing it a few tenths this week. Nonetheless, even in a pattern like this, it's very easy to pick "appreciable" snow without even noticing it or realizing it. Whatever sleet/snow that fell last night and stuck to the grass was long melted by 10 am, but chalk up another 0.6" to the seasonal total. I'm sure a little wraparound from this tomorrow will toss on another inch that will fade by afternoon, and maybe the clipper will add another inch and a half. Then some residual lake effect will amount 0.7" and blow away to nothing over the weekend. BAM, you've just picked 4" in a few days without anything on the ground. Wash, rinse, repeat, over the next 6-8 weeks and you've easily got a 50 inch winter without it ever really snowing. A day ago it looked like this wasn't even going to produce much, if any, rain for us. Now we're looking at a potential .75" of rain, which would make this January wetter than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It was nice to have a good soaking rain to wash all the salt residue away. Too bad loads of salt appeared once again to ruin it all. Literally salt in the wounds. We're getting frequent snows that increase our seasonal snowfall totals without it actually "snowstorming" or having snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It was nice to have a good soaking rain to wash all the salt residue away. Too bad loads of salt appeared once again to ruin it all. Literally salt in the wounds. We're getting frequent snows that increase our seasonal snowfall totals without it actually "snowstorming" or having snow on the ground. Storms continue to over produce with precip. Looks like our stretch of above normal precip will continue. Its a winter wonderland out there... enjoy it while it last for a few hours. This winter cannot end any sooner. Outside of a major storm... I'll take a month or two of mild, sunny and dry weather. We'll probably never experience a year with so much precip again in our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 CLE could hit a 12 month period of 70" liquid equivalent in the near future. Especially considering last January was dry in comparison. CLE picked up 1.07" from this event, this is also the 17th consecutive day of precipitation at CLE. Winter wonderland out there, but depending on whose shift it is at the airport we'll see if that's actually a trace or an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 CLE could hit a 12 month period of 70" liquid equivalent in the near future. Especially considering last January was dry in comparison. CLE picked up 1.07" from this event, this is also the 17th consecutive day of precipitation at CLE. Winter wonderland out there, but depending on whose shift it is at the airport we'll see if that's actually a trace or an inch. That's insane. 2012 so far is picking up where 2011 left off with above normal precip, yet another 1"+ precip event in northern OH. Not seeing a dry pattern appearing for at least two weeks...CLE should extend that precip streak to at least 19 days, although that will probably end on Monday. The snow is pretty to look at, but will be mostly gone by late afternoon more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It's been a few days since it dipped below 32 and it was 45 yesterday and early this morning, so the snow is rapidly melting. If you didn't measure the instant it stopped snowing, you won't have anything to measure. The past two days have been nothing but stat padders. These are the events that probably never made it to the record books in the old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Oh and btw, officially the liquid equivalent at CLE for last Friday into Saturday was 0.13" while this mornings was 0.15". What's up with lowering the totals for last weekend, this time the liquid equivalent? I swear it was more a few days ago. I think even the METAR hourly obs added to about 0.25" There is no data integrity in the weather world, calling it "science" is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The south shift ended up being significant for us in the end...highest QPF stayed south (Hopkins reported .23" liquid equivalent) and best lift stayed south, meaning our snow growth blew. Even with about 3", the dense nature of the snow on a cold night made things very tricky on the roads, even with the light to moderate rates we saw. The climate summary now shows 0.13", so someone had to manually reduce it from 0.23", reducing the METAR totals. I've never heard of such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I've stopped following the CLE snow totals to avoid frustration. Those guys are a joke. You wouldn't even believe the staff arrangement they have. Picture 5 guys leaning on a shovel while one digs. Laughable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 This winter has been horrible for snow haters and snow enthusiasts alike. What meager snowfalls we've had have somehow found a way to happen at rush hour or mess with people's weekend plans. Yet for snow enthusiasts they've underperformed or melted just as quick. No one wins this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't mind the lack of snow, but the seemingly constant wetness, low stratus clouds and lack of sunshine has got me down. The only partly sunny day this week was last weekend, and we had about 1 hr of sunshine in the warm sector several days ago when temperatures were in the 50s. It started precipitating here Wednesday evening at 8 p.m. and finally stopped today at 2 p.m., 42 hours of constant precip. Doesn't look line any sunshine for the next couple days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't mind the lack of snow, but the seemingly constant wetness, low stratus clouds and lack of sunshine has got me down. The only partly sunny day this week was last weekend, and we had about 1 hr of sunshine in the warm sector several days ago when temperatures were in the 50s. It started precipitating here Wednesday evening at 8 p.m. and finally stopped today at 2 p.m., 42 hours of constant precip. Doesn't look line any sunshine for the next couple days at least. Hey, at least we got about 30 minutes of filtered sunshine at the end of the day today. Even with CLE's odd measuring, 7.1" of snow has fallen since the 57 degree torch just a week ago Thursday. Hard to believe we've picked up that much snow without anything to even show for it. My how my opinion of winter would be different if we'd have just received that from one event this week. The constant damp/raw/windy/cloudy days are really dragging. A harsher winter would have probably meant a lot of cold/dry/sunny spells and with snow cover those days really are a whole lot better than 38 overcast, damp, with a stiff 30mph NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hey, at least we got about 30 minutes of filtered sunshine at the end of the day today. Even with CLE's odd measuring, 7.1" of snow has fallen since the 57 degree torch just a week ago Thursday. Hard to believe we've picked up that much snow without anything to even show for it. My how my opinion of winter would be different if we'd have just received that from one event this week. The constant damp/raw/windy/cloudy days are really dragging. A harsher winter would have probably meant a lot of cold/dry/sunny spells and with snow cover those days really are a whole lot better than 38 overcast, damp, with a stiff 30mph NW wind. No sunshine here on the "East side". Still 1" of snow on the ground, a very slushy, icy coating. I'd rather have 15 and sunny with a fresh snowpack than 33, damp, cloudy and windy any day. Feel like I'm living in Cold Bay, Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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