Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[Trent]

I don't understand the measuring problems. The NWS should just send its own mets out the front door and measure themselves, would probably take care of any problems. It makes sense that 1.2" additional fell on top of the 1.0" at 1pm, but who knows.

The NAM thankfully trended south and only brings mixing to the southern-most portions of CLE's CWA...I haven't looked at any soundings off the 0z runs but snow ratios somewhat higher than 10:1, especially during the best period of lift and heaviest precip should be attainable, especially in the northern counties where temps will be a few degrees cooler.

Since warning criteria is 6" in 12 hours I think CLE at least starts with an advisory area wide for either 3-5" or 3-6"...if things go nuts with the WAA over NE OH/NW PA like the NAM and GFS are hinting at, they may go with a warning for east of 77 and north of 30 like you mentioned. If this system wasn't so fast moving we would really cash in because we look like we will be close to the sweet spot with this, and it would take a huge shift at this range to change that.

Getting some bursts of light snow but decent sized flakes out here under a weak lake effect band ATTM.

Yeah, like I said it would have been impossible for CLE to only have recorded just 0.2" once the radar lit up, especially with 2 hours of .5 and .25 miles visibility.

These are the errors that cause CLE's snow totals to be so off come the end of year. Really is a shame that we can't have accurate data, especially when the office is at the airport.

BY 00Z...SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. MODELS

FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE OTHER

MODELS. IT APPEARS THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW TONIGHT...

ALTHOUGH THE TRANSITION LINE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST

AREA. LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. LATER

SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE

ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY

BE SOME GOOD CONVERGENCE.

I really think they'll go with a warning with the 3pm update. Most models juiced up at the last minute which is generally not the case. Then couple that with the fact this will be the biggest storm for the region yet this year. We have already had a handful of warnings out, the public would be confused that this would be less severe, but they really don't grasp the difference as it is anyway.

[NEOH]

Nice forecast OHweather. The lakeshore areas might get a little enhancement so hopefully your 4-8" line will extend back westward. Overall, we are in a great spot for this storm. Looks like Northern Ohio out through western PA will be in the best spot for the heaviest snows.

As Trent mentioned, ratio's will probably be 10:1. So it will be a more dense snow than the fluff we've had recently.

It was cold last night so I'm sure some ice formed on the western basin.... but the E/NE winds later today should break up any ice that formed and advect some warmer surface water from the central basin.

CLE's snowfall report was a joke. The airport was under some of the heaviest bands yesterday afternoon. Here's what CLE had to say -

"I have given up trying to begin to figure out what happens with the contract observers from the FAA. I also do not always understand what happens here to try and "fix" the reports. Not that I am not interested, but I have no control over any of it (I have tried to help)."

Gotta love government workers! And we wonder why nothing can ever get done.

[Trent]

I can't believe that the forecast office just doesn't measure at least for their own records. Could you imagine the DTX, Wilmington, or North Webster offices just never measuring the snow that falls at their office? It's just baffling.

Plus it is always so windy here in Northern Ohio, and open runways dont help any. I bet the snow just blows off the board and the observers could care less, so you get these absurd small totals.

The consistency for 4-5" has been remarkable. Shouldn't be too many surprises. However, I could see a southward bump possibly unfolding as I take a peak at some short term models.

[NEOH]

I can't believe that the forecast office just doesn't measure at least for their own records. Could you imagine the DTX, Wilmington, or North Webster offices just never measuring the snow that falls at their office? It's just baffling.

Plus it is always so windy here in Northern Ohio, and open runways dont help any. I bet the snow just blows off the board and the observers could care less, so you get these absurd small totals.

The consistency for 4-5" has been remarkable. Shouldn't be too many surprises. However, I could see a southward bump possibly unfolding as I take a peak at some short term models.

It is amazing that one of the employees just doesn't go out and meaure for the hell of it.

We have some wiggle room so I'm not overly concerned about a southern shift. Given the dry-air, I wonder if we will have a virga storm at the outset.

[OHweather]

It is amazing that one of the employees just doesn't go out and meaure for the hell of it.

We have some wiggle room so I'm not overly concerned about a southern shift. Given the dry-air, I wonder if we will have a virga storm at the outset.

I mean they wonder "WTF" it seems to some of the snow totals reported from the airport that they are located at, so I don't see why not either.

I think the heaviest axis of snow may be a bit farther south than what I thought last night--potentially closer to Akron than Cleveland, although I still think a general 3-6" is a solid call, locally more if the WAA can overproduce.

If some of the higher QPF over eastern OH plays out, I could see an upgrade to warning. I'm not sure they do it with the afternoon update or wait until snow is falling.

[Trent]

Rapid refresh keeps the heavy snow swath through the lakeshore counties with 4-6" by 4am which is last frame and snow is almost out of here.

The sim radar really shows things lighting up after the lunch hour out west. I'm betting by 5 we'll have returns overhead. Hopefully it holds off til 7, I would not like a repeat of yesterdays commute.

With regards to CLE measuring, I bet it's person specific. Some of the events have been spot on, while others have been absurd.

It's just impossible that only 0.2" fell yesterday afternoon. I dont know how any observer could even come up with that.

On the same vein, it really makes official totals a sham. Why isn't the NWS, a 24/365 operation at the airport not the official source? Kind of puts those "if it snows 10" officially you can get your furniture for free" gimmicks into perspective. Anyone could just bribe the imbecile contracted to do it to whatever number they wanted because there is no questioning or back ups to its accuracy.

[NEOH]

Rapid refresh keeps the heavy snow swath through the lakeshore counties with 4-6" by 4am which is last frame and snow is almost out of here.

The sim radar really shows things lighting up after the lunch hour out west. I'm betting by 5 we'll have returns overhead. Hopefully it holds off til 7, I would not like a repeat of yesterdays commute.

With regards to CLE measuring, I bet it's person specific. Some of the events have been spot on, while others have been absurd.

It's just impossible that only 0.2" fell yesterday afternoon. I dont know how any observer could even come up with that.

On the same vein, it really makes official totals a sham. Why isn't the NWS, a 24/365 operation at the airport not the official source? Kind of puts those "if it snows 10" officially you can get your furniture for free" gimmicks into perspective. Anyone could just bribe the imbecile contracted to do it to whatever number they wanted because there is no questioning or back ups to its accuracy.

I think 4-6 is a good call at this point. If the storm were to slow down at all could be higher.

[Trent]

Euro backed down. But at this stage, not really that important.

I'm not overly excited for this because its going to start melting 24 hours later. The best snows will probably be overnight too.

It will be nice to see 4" of non lake effect for a change. This will be dry dense snow, so the 4" will feel entirely different than the 4" bursts of LES we've had.

I did notice a slight glaze of ice form on lake Erie near the shore this morning. So surface temps are at least in the low to mid thirties. The warm spell should melt that, but the western basin is at the point where it will freeze with light winds and cold temps at any time.

[NEOH]

Shows what calm winds and frigid temps can do... in just one night the waters by Toledo formed ice. Monday's torch and rain should do away with the ice though.

[NEOH]

With temps in the low 20's, dewpoints in the single digits and easterly winds, I think the snow is going to have a tough time getting started.

[Trent]

With temps in the low 20's, dewpoints in the single digits and easterly winds, I think the snow is going to have a tough time getting started.

Yeah. We've got a long way to go yet. Roads will be treacherous once it starts though, especially with onset after sunset. Snowstorms at this temperature can be very dangerous as people fail to grasp the difference between scattered lake effect at 30 degrees that accumulates 4" over 48 hours versus a synoptic event at 20 degrees that accumulates 4" in a short window everywhere. This wont melt when it hits the streets.

My call for CLE is dependent on who has the snow measuring shift tonight. With light winds i'll say 3.5", very conservatively. This probably wont over perform.

[Trent]

Just for fun with all the ratio talk I did some digging. The highest ratio I could find (I only looked at storms greater than 3 inches) was Feb 14, 1971 where 3" fell on 0.01. Obviously wrong but it's recorded that way.

Other noteworthy events include Jan 7, 1995 where 7.2" fell on 0.14" a 51:1 ratio.

The average ratio for all snow events where the high was below 32 and accumulation was greater than 3 inches was 15.7:1

[NEOH]

Yeah. We've got a long way to go yet. Roads will be treacherous once it starts though, especially with onset after sunset. Snowstorms at this temperature can be very dangerous as people fail to grasp the difference between scattered lake effect at 30 degrees that accumulates 4" over 48 hours versus a synoptic event at 20 degrees that accumulates 4" in a short window everywhere. This wont melt when it hits the streets.

My call for CLE is dependent on who has the snow measuring shift tonight. With light winds i'll say 3.5", very conservatively. This probably wont over perform.

This snow will probably have the consistency of sand. That consistency always makes it seem like a lot more for some reason. Radar is looking pretty good, but as you mentioned, the heaviest banding may be south of here.

Any major shifts in the models?

[Nic]

Is it just me? or did the critical thickness lines northward movement significantly slow down on the last 2 images of the loop.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/s4_loops/thck/

[NEOH]

AFD from CLE. Looks the 30 corridor and lakeshore areas are favored for the heaviest snows.

THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. THE RUC MODEL IS A LITTLE SLOW IN SPREADING THE SNOW...THIS MAY BE TOO

SLOW. THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...SO AS SOON AS IT MOISTENS UP THE VISIBILITY IN SNOW WILL DROP QUICKLY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT WHETHER

ANY AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. AT THIS TIME GOING MORE WITH THE GFS/SREF/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW... WHICH WILL KEEP

IT MAINLY SNOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO A

FEW OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS. THE AREAS THAT COULD GET OVER 6 INCHES COULD BE THE LAKESHORE AREAS AS

THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND WE GET SOME ENHANCEMENT. THE OTHER AREAS WOULD BE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF

HEAVY SNOW FROM FDY TO MFD TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. THE OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE SNOW COULD BE A LITTLE

FLUFFY FOR A WHILE WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AT FIRST. AFTER CAREFUL CONSIDERATION WILL NOT UPGRADE. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE SOME

GRIDS WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW IN THEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISESOME AND THEN HOLD STEADY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[dta1984]

Looks to be a nice synoptic event for us. I keep hoping we will be able to maintain some snow cover through the mild temps next week , but I doubt it. Hopefully we get another event sometime in the next week.

I am driving down 71 to cincy so ill be able to report on the nasty weather down that way tonight. .

[AppsRunner]

Side roads are already in terrible shape with just a dusting of snow... going to be a long night for road crews and people returning from basketball games.

[Nic]

Solid snow in licking county at this time.

[NEOH]

Side roads are already in terrible shape with just a dusting of snow... going to be a long night for road crews and people returning from basketball games.

Nice. Send it on east.

[Shsg Falls]

With regards to CLE measuring, I bet it's person specific. Some of the events have been spot on, while others have been absurd.

It's just impossible that only 0.2" fell yesterday afternoon. I dont know how any observer could even come up with that.

On the same vein, it really makes official totals a sham. Why isn't the NWS, a 24/365 operation at the airport not the official source? Kind of puts those "if it snows 10" officially you can get your furniture for free" gimmicks into perspective. Anyone could just bribe the imbecile contracted to do it to whatever number they wanted because there is no questioning or back ups to its accuracy.

Never been there, but I'm fairly certain the CWO (contract weather office) that augments the ASOS at KCLE and measures snow is in the same federal building on the west side of the airport that the NWS WFO is. In fact, I believe the office is "just down the hall".

[OHweather]

Never been there, but I'm fairly certain the CWO (contract weather office) that augments the ASOS at KCLE and measures snow is in the same federal building on the west side of the airport that the NWS WFO is. In fact, I believe the office is "just down the hall".

If true, then the question becomes what the f...?

Anyways, light snow has started here. Small flakes, need the lower levels to moisten up a little more. Good returns overhead and to our west all the way to IL, will be a fun night.

[AppsRunner]

If true, then the question becomes what the f...?

Anyways, light snow has started here. Small flakes, need the lower levels to moisten up a little more. Good returns overhead and to our west all the way to IL, will be a fun night.

Snow has been producing well in NWOH... 2" or so, with a long while to go. IWX/CLE good with 4-7" now, makes 13abc look a little silly for saying 2-4" with the heaviest south of Lima and Findlay.

[NEOH]

Never been there, but I'm fairly certain the CWO (contract weather office) that augments the ASOS at KCLE and measures snow is in the same federal building on the west side of the airport that the NWS WFO is. In fact, I believe the office is "just down the hall".

That's pretty specific for never being there but I'll just leave it at that. Hopefully "whoever" is measuring the snow gets a refresher course.

Snow is coming down nicely now in Lyndhurst. Small flakes but should improve as the night goes on.

[NEOH]

Picked up 2-3". Definitely on the lower side of what was forecast. I didn't see the radar after 9pm... did the heaviest snow fall south of here or did the storm just not perform?

[Trent]

Picked up 2-3". Definitely on the lower side of what was forecast. I didn't see the radar after 9pm... did the heaviest snow fall south of here or did the storm just not perform?

Definitely was not expecting under 3" ... as expected very dry dense snow. Feels much more than a similar LES event.

[OHweather]

The south shift ended up being significant for us in the end...highest QPF stayed south (Hopkins reported .23" liquid equivalent) and best lift stayed south, meaning our snow growth blew. Even with about 3", the dense nature of the snow on a cold night made things very tricky on the roads, even with the light to moderate rates we saw.

[Trent]

Picked up 2-3". Definitely on the lower side of what was forecast. I didn't see the radar after 9pm... did the heaviest snow fall south of here or did the storm just not perform?

Radar never really lit up, except for along Rte 30, where a band formed, and even then they only had 4-5"

Seems 2-3" was the general fall for the northern counties. Last night's snow was a joke. I don't think any model caught on to that low of QPF.

We've been a synoptic wasteland for snow. The west side has surely nickled and dimed its way up to about 25", even using CLE's F6 as a rough guide shows this. I would gladly take 2/3rds of this month's total snow so far and convert it into one single storm.

[NEOH]

Radar never really lit up, except for along Rte 30, where a band formed, and even then they only had 4-5"

Seems 2-3" was the general fall for the northern counties. Last night's snow was a joke. I don't think any model caught on to that low of QPF.

We've been a synoptic wasteland for snow. The west side has surely nickled and dimed its way up to about 25", even using CLE's F6 as a rough guide shows this. I would gladly take 2/3rds of this month's total snow so far and convert it into one single storm.

Hopefully we get one decent synoptic storm before the end of winter. I still think we see two 6"+ storms. Yep, I would give up these small events for one large storm.

[Trent]

Hopefully we get one decent synoptic storm before the end of winter. I still think we see two 6"+ storms. Yep, I would give up these small events for one large storm.

I'm glad that I was hit with the surprise 6" back in early December. It was the only "true" storm feeling event of the year with a continual blast of heavy snow in an 8 hour window. The rest has been nuisance fluff snows of a few inches here or there.

I made no attempt to even shovel the driveway or sidewalk today, especially considering amounts were half as much as expected. The sun will do its magic tomorrow and with an anticipated 41 degree low tomorrow night, most of everything will be gone. It's the days where it's 40, but low dewpoints and overnight lows in the 20s where the snow hangs around.

While the advisories were most likely warranted from a travel perspective, going by the textbook definition a lot of the lakeshore counties didn't even live up to that.

Hopefully the past week or so wasn't the "winter of 2011/2012"

[Jonger]

I'm glad that I was hit with the surprise 6" back in early December. It was the only "true" storm feeling event of the year with a continual blast of heavy snow in an 8 hour window. The rest has been nuisance fluff snows of a few inches here or there.

I made no attempt to even shovel the driveway or sidewalk today, especially considering amounts were half as much as expected. The sun will do its magic tomorrow and with an anticipated 41 degree low tomorrow night, most of everything will be gone. It's the days where it's 40, but low dewpoints and overnight lows in the 20s where the snow hangs around.

While the advisories were most likely warranted from a travel perspective, going by the textbook definition a lot of the lakeshore counties didn't even live up to that.

Hopefully the past week or so wasn't the "winter of 2011/2012"

All my neighbors shoveled/snowblowed there driveways.... except me. I knew the torch was coming. I'm going to see how long I can go without using the blower for a second time. I had to snowblow Nov 30th with the 6 inch storm... Havent touch it since then. I only got 2 inches last night.