OHweather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Unbelievable. Snowing really hard here. The ground is already covered. A few hours ago it was 60 degrees and sunny. So in the past 6 hours we've had 60s and sun, a severe thunderstorm, and now a snow storm. Just amazing. Ya, today was a fun day, I'll take this over sunny and 20 (normal for this time of year) any day! Just drove from a friend's in Eastlake to Reminderville. In some spots the snow was coming down big fat and wet dendrites with visibilities reduced significantly, in others it looked like drizzle was mixing in with the snow where rates weren't as high. There was about 1.5" max right near the I-90/271 interchange, elsewhere a half inch to an inch. About half an inch at home as of now. The radar is still lit up, hopefully someone can squeeze out a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ya, today was a fun day, I'll take this over sunny and 20 (normal for this time of year) any day! Just drove from a friend's in Eastlake to Reminderville. In some spots the snow was coming down big fat and wet dendrites with visibilities reduced significantly, in others it looked like drizzle was mixing in with the snow where rates weren't as high. There was about 1.5" max right near the I-90/271 interchange, elsewhere a half inch to an inch. About half an inch at home as of now. The radar is still lit up, hopefully someone can squeeze out a few inches. Very heavy snow coming down IMBY here in Chagrin Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Very heavy snow coming down IMBY here in Chagrin Falls. That was a nice 30-35dBZ burst that just pushed through much of the county from Cleveland points east...a band may be trying to form right into Cuyahoga County...the wind direction certainly favors one there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lost power yesterday evening. High winds suck when you live on a street full of old oaks. As Trent mentioned, what crazy weather yesterday. The winds yesterday evening were absolutely howling. Easily 50-60 mph gusts. Picked up 1.7 inches last night. Not bad considering it was almost 60 earlier in the day. I spent the night out in Russell at a family members house. They easily had 3-4 inches when I woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 1.8" here...still seeing some light to moderate bursts, so will probably top 2" by the time the snow completely winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Clipper tomorrow looks to bullseye Cleveland. The Euro is also advertising a half inch of QPF for us on Saturday. If all plays out as best case scenarios, we will have at least 10 inches for the three events, one ongoing plus two imminent. Still way too early to get excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Clipper tomorrow looks to bullseye Cleveland. The Euro is also advertising a half inch of QPF for us on Saturday. If all plays out as best case scenarios, we will have at least 10 inches for the three events, one ongoing plus two imminent. Still way too early to get excited though. It has been a long time since we've had three snow events in one week. The best part is that we will avoid a warm-up between snows. Gotta love this blurb from CLE in the long-term AFD. Clearly not a winter weather enthusiast. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT ENHANCING CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE PROCESS. AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RATHER QUICKLY IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE EAST AVOIDING A MAJOR REX BLOCK WITH TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where is OHweather's forecast? Good to see the radar lighting up to the NW of here... a general 1-3 snow on the way today with light, but steady snowfall. BUF seemed pretty bullish on LES tonight yet CLE mentions virtually nothing. The airmass between OH and WNY can't be all that different so someone will be wrong. The ridge pushes in quickly so I can't see much LES developing. Good to see the models are a little "colder" for the storm on Friday/Saturday. Looks more and more like a spread the wealth event for Ohio. I think last nights run of the Euro had close to .50 for CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro is still on board for at least 6" of snow here Friday night into Saturday. It's consistency here has been great. Looks like we'll also bag maybe an 1.5" - 2.5" today. The intensity should peak just after the lunch hour, so hopefully the evening commute won't be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro is still on board for at least 6" of snow here Friday night into Saturday. It's consistency here has been great. Looks like we'll also bag maybe an 1.5" - 2.5" today. The intensity should peak just after the lunch hour, so hopefully the evening commute won't be bad. Nice little stretch of winter we are having. Good to see the super torch somewhat muted in the long range. I see CLE reported 1.1 of snow. How can they keep revising downward? CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 1.3 651 AM 1/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice little stretch of winter we are having. Good to see the super torch somewhat muted in the long range. I see CLE reported 1.1 of snow. How can they keep revising downward? CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 1.3 651 AM 1/18 They stuck the other 0.2" on Tuesday. Snow falling on snow falling on snow? Wow. Who would have thunk it in Cleveland in January. The odds of a 6" storm are decent at this point ... maybe the only of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where is OHweather's forecast? Good to see the radar lighting up to the NW of here... a general 1-3 snow on the way today with light, but steady snowfall. BUF seemed pretty bullish on LES tonight yet CLE mentions virtually nothing. The airmass between OH and WNY can't be all that different so someone will be wrong. The ridge pushes in quickly so I can't see much LES developing. Good to see the models are a little "colder" for the storm on Friday/Saturday. Looks more and more like a spread the wealth event for Ohio. I think last nights run of the Euro had close to .50 for CLE. Around 2" synoptic snow then maybe an inch or two primary belt of lake effect tonight...airmass really dries after the front passes through this evening. School started this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They stuck the other 0.2" on Tuesday. Snow falling on snow falling on snow? Wow. Who would have thunk it in Cleveland in January. The odds of a 6" storm are decent at this point ... maybe the only of the year? Snow on top of snow is a rarity. Given the pattern its a miracle. I'd say its 50/50 we get 6"+ from this storm, but I feel pretty good about it since the euro is on board. I think we get one more before the end of winter... monster apps runner before 2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Around 2" synoptic snow then maybe an inch or two primary belt of lake effect tonight...airmass really dries after the front passes through this evening. School started this week Nice. Interesting that the snow off of the upstream lakes looks pretty healthy. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Right now it looks borderline warning. I think 4-6" seems like a reasonable call and considering it will all fall during a weekend dead of night, an advisory will probably suffice. Snowing nicely now with this clipper. The short term models though have been placing the 3" totals around route 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Right now it looks borderline warning. I think 4-6" seems like a reasonable call and considering it will all fall during a weekend dead of night, an advisory will probably suffice. Snowing nicely now with this clipper. The short term models though have been placing the 3" totals around route 30. It's coming down pretty good right now. Looks like the heavier snows will fall to the SW. Snow hole showing up over Toledo. I believe the models were showing a burst of heavier snow over northern ohio up into WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow is trying to build back in from the lake. Already heavy returns over Lake and extreme Northern Geauga County. The Friday night - early Saturday event looks on target, though a threat of mixing to the south. Let's hope it stays all snow, but you know how fast the Warm Tongue of Death (WTOD) can move up in east OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like some nice bands over the lake that will swing through and give us a nice burst later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow is trying to build back in from the lake. Already heavy returns over Lake and extreme Northern Geauga County. The Friday night - early Saturday event looks on target, though a threat of mixing to the south. Let's hope it stays all snow, but you know how fast the Warm Tongue of Death (WTOD) can move up in east OH. Radar is filling in with heavier returns. Most of the models showed an area of heavier precip blossoming over E OH and heading into PA. Looks like this is happening. I'm not sure we've even had an inch yet, but with the snow building over the lake I don't think 2-3" is out of the realm of possiblity. Regarding Fri/Sat... I think we are good for all snow. Euro was plenty cold enough along with the GFS. I'll be conservative and say 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Finally filling in. We should probably get 3/4" per hour rates up until rush hour. I say CLE gets an even 2" from this. I'm awaiting the AFD regarding tomorrow night. Potentially watch worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There were definitely heavy bursts of snow on the drive from Highland Hills to Reminderville with visibilities briefly dipping to around 1/4 of a mile with large flakes falling. At home, close to an inch thus far (probably a little short for now) with a moderate snow falling. Flake size is small at the moment but will likely increase as these heavier bands swing through. I'm thinking 3-6" for Friday night into Saturday with potentially a glaze of ice south of Mansfield/Canton/Youngstown. I will look at that more in depth later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow has been ripping in Chagrin. Larger flake size as the heavier returns move overhead. Looks like another hour or so until the band moves through. Looks like 2-3" will verify. Not sure if any LES will develop behind this but it is on the upstream lakes. 18z NAM is a nice hit for Northern OH. It will probably be discounted but nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow has been ripping in Chagrin. Larger flake size as the heavier returns move overhead. Looks like another hour or so until the band moves through. Looks like 2-3" will verify. Not sure if any LES will develop behind this but it is on the upstream lakes. 18z NAM is a nice hit for Northern OH. It will probably be discounted but nice run. Definitely wetter, but the NAM has been inconsistent. The freezing line briefly makes it to lake Erie on that run too, which is highly unlikely. Downtown streets are filling up with people scrambling out early. Winds are shifting to the west now, so enhancement likely becoming a factor. This might hang around a bit, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 have about 3" here in the streetsboro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Took me 1 hr and 10 minutes to drive 4.5 miles home. So many wrecks. That's what happens when you get whiteout conditions at rush hour! Looks to be about 2 - 2.5", most of which fell in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2.7" in Reminderville total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It pretty much stopped snowing just as I left work, but the wrecks and damage had already been done to start the grid lock: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 January 20-21 Synoptic Snowstorm: A low amplitude sub-tropical jet shortwave is currently moving onshore over the Pacific northwest. A tight gradient on the south side of a polar vortex over Hudson Bay will cause this shortwave to move just south of due east across the western and central portions of the CONUS through Friday. This gradient will also result in some sort of surface cyclonegenesis over the Ohio Valley and intense warm air advection ahead of the shortwave, resulting in deep subtropical moisture overrunning a cold arctic airmass at the surface. This warm air advection is clearly evident on the 18z GFS valid at 0z Saturday. With a surface high pressure laying to our north and east, a cold, dense, and shallow arctic airmass will be in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will setup a good overrunning surface, which is clearly evident on forecast skew-t’s for tomorrow evening: (valid 3z near CLE) Note the cold, shallow airmass in place below 925mb with light, erratic winds in the low levels of the atmosphere with much stronger mid and upper level winds and warmer temperatures. This will force moisture to rapidly lift in the mid levels of the atmosphere and ring out precipitation late tomorrow afternoon into very early Saturday. The models are showing a nice period of negative mid level vertical velocities over northern Ohio during this time period: In addition, northern Ohio will be in the right-entrance portion of an upper level jet streak, providing for a nice period of large scale lift for ascent: All in all, I expect a few hours of moderate to heavy warm air advection/overrunning snow spreading in from west to east between 3pm and 7pm. Initial accumulations may be fast and furious. There will be lift through all levels of the atmosphere, including the dendrite growth zone. As shown on the skew-t above, the dendrite growth zone will be over 100mb deep and decent lift through this growth zone may lead to fairly efficient snow rates. The SREF shows some probabilities of a deep dendrite growth zone during the period of heaviest overrunning precip tomorrow evening: Factors appear to be lining up for a 4-6 hour period of snow rates of ½” to 1” per/hr across much of northern OH with the overrunning/WAA precip. Mid level temps will likely peak around midnight across northern OH, meaning the heaviest overrunning precip will end around that time. This overrunning will likely produce a quick 2-4/3-5" across much of northern Ohio through midnight Friday night, with highest amounts in the northern counties where mid level temperatures will remain several degrees below freezing and snow ratios will be highest. Farther south the snow will be wetter and there will likely be a period of sleet/freezing rain at the height of the storm south of US-30. After midnight mid level temps will slowly fall, and enough of a temp gradient will remain overhead to produce enough mid-level frontogenesis for continued light to moderate snow for a few hours past midnight. The NAM is popping a surface low and maintains heavier precip over northern OH slightly longer than other models. This will need to be watched as there will be a strong baroclinic zone and a slightly more wound up solution appears possible but not likely. All in all, the GFS, Euro, Canadian, UK and RGEM are printing out .3-.5” of liquid equivalent across northern Ohio late Friday afternoon through early Saturday. The NAM and early WRF runs are more amped up and are printing out over half an inch, especially over eastern Ohio into PA where it appears the warm advection will be strongest. Given decent ratios over the lake-shore counties, this is a solid 3-6”/4-7” type snowfall north and a 2-5” type snowfall with potential mixing far south. The NAM shows much more mixing than any other models…for now I am discounting the solution as the NAM has been too amped up and moist several times this year, and the general seasonal trend has been for slightly less wound up systems. This makes most sense given the polar vortex over Hudson Bay and little room for the system to amplify. Best guess at this time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 More measuring problems at CLE today. CLE was reporting 1.0" at the 12:51 pm update. Yet only reported 1.2" during the evening PNS. It would have been impossible for CLE to only have recorded .2" of snow after that, in which the heavy bands moved through. The airport recorded two straight hours of heavy to moderate snow also during this time, even the precip sensors which are always underdone during windy, fluffy snow recorded 0.03. Perhaps that 1.2" in the evening PNS was supposed to be in addition to the 1.0 from 1 o'clock? Who knows for certain, the totals are always subject to change at a whim anyway. As for tomorrow. I think being so close to the mixing line isn't going to help any. This will probably be one of those very dense, cold, sugar snows with near 10:1 ratios. I don't think there'll be too many surprises ... the 4" range has been pretty consistent for multiple runs, multiple days, and multiple models. We aren't talking about a nail biter event, just a run of the mill synoptic winter snow. I do think it will be interesting to see if warnings or advisories are issued. This will most likely have the highest widespread impact for the region of any event thus far this season. Especially if you compare this to the 48 hour+ warnings out last weekend, this will be much more severe in comparison. Yet, I have a feeling this will probably end up being an advisory ... which implies a less severe event. It's going to be a tricky call. Perhaps they'll do a warning for east of 77 and north of 30. Then on Monday we get to enjoy brown grass again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 More measuring problems at CLE today. CLE was reporting 1.0" at the 12:51 pm update. Yet only reported 1.2" during the evening PNS. It would have been impossible for CLE to only have recorded .2" of snow after that, in which the heavy bands moved through. The airport recorded two straight hours of heavy to moderate snow also during this time, even the precip sensors which are always underdone during windy, fluffy snow recorded 0.03. Perhaps that 1.2" in the evening PNS was supposed to be in addition to the 1.0 from 1 o'clock? Who knows for certain, the totals are always subject to change at a whim anyway. As for tomorrow. I think being so close to the mixing line isn't going to help any. This will probably be one of those very dense, cold, sugar snows with near 10:1 ratios. I don't think there'll be too many surprises ... the 4" range has been pretty consistent for multiple runs, multiple days, and multiple models. We aren't talking about a nail biter event, just a run of the mill synoptic winter snow. I do think it will be interesting to see if warnings or advisories are issued. This will most likely have the highest widespread impact for the region of any event thus far this season. Especially if you compare this to the 48 hour+ warnings out last weekend, this will be much more severe in comparison. Yet, I have a feeling this will probably end up being an advisory ... which implies a less severe event. It's going to be a tricky call. Perhaps they'll do a warning for east of 77 and north of 30. Then on Monday we get to enjoy brown grass again. I don't understand the measuring problems. The NWS should just send its own mets out the front door and measure themselves, would probably take care of any problems. It makes sense that 1.2" additional fell on top of the 1.0" at 1pm, but who knows. The NAM thankfully trended south and only brings mixing to the southern-most portions of CLE's CWA...I haven't looked at any soundings off the 0z runs but snow ratios somewhat higher than 10:1, especially during the best period of lift and heaviest precip should be attainable, especially in the northern counties where temps will be a few degrees cooler. Since warning criteria is 6" in 12 hours I think CLE at least starts with an advisory area wide for either 3-5" or 3-6"...if things go nuts with the WAA over NE OH/NW PA like the NAM and GFS are hinting at, they may go with a warning for east of 77 and north of 30 like you mentioned. If this system wasn't so fast moving we would really cash in because we look like we will be close to the sweet spot with this, and it would take a huge shift at this range to change that. Getting some bursts of light snow but decent sized flakes out here under a weak lake effect band ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.