Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[OhioBlizzard]

Boy i am really interested to see the final totals out of lake county. Someone there has to be close to a foot and a half. Band sagging south but not sure if its going to really make it down to my neck of the woods in northern portage.

[OhioBlizzard]

nws just released latest 12 hr totals. location in lake reported 16.5" in last 12 hours! If this is indeed true locations up there could be looking at 2 feet plus

[Trent]

12 hour snowfall:

...LAKE COUNTY...

MADISON-ON-THE-LAKE 16.5 716 PM 1/14

MADISON VILLAGE 9.0 706 PM 1/14

MADISON 5 S 6.5 700 PM 1/14

SOUTH MADSION 5.0 558 PM 1/14

MENTOR 4.3 801 PM 1/14

CONCORD TWP 3.9 750 PM 1/14

PERRY TOWNSHIP 3.5 731 PM 1/14

WILLOUGHBY 2.9 826 PM 1/14

Snow depth:

...LAKE COUNTY...

MADISON 5 S 24.0 700 PM 1/14

SOUTH MADSION 20.0 558 PM 1/14

MADISON-ON-THE-LAKE 19.0 716 PM 1/14

MADISON VILLAGE 18.0 706 PM 1/14

PERRY TOWNSHIP 16.0 731 PM 1/14

MENTOR 9.0 801 PM 1/14

CONCORD TWP 9.0 750 PM 1/14

WILLOUGHBY 5.0 826 PM 1/14

[Trent]

Well, the band has swung south and is now hugging the west shore. Decent snow, but by no means excessive 2" per hour rates. Would have been great if the band that sat over Madison all day would have been a bit more south.

I'm eager to drive out there in the morning to see these 18-24" amounts. I'm sure there'll be a ton of gawkers.

[OhioBlizzard]

Well, the band has swung south and is now hugging the west shore. Decent snow, but by no means excessive 2" per hour rates. Would have been great if the band that sat over Madison all day would have been a bit more south.

I'm eager to drive out there in the morning to see these 18-24" amounts. I'm sure there'll be a ton of gawkers.

yea looking through the reports looks like 2 feet seems to be the high number storm total wise. try to take some pics and post them if you wouldn't mind. been a great event but still doesn't quite compare too either of the lake effect episodes back in early december of last year imo where had 34" and 24". i'd love to see some pics though

[LakeEffectOH]

...Was in Willoughby Hills at friends house. There was no snow on my car when I arrived. When I came out to the car 3hrs later, there was about 4" covering it. Chesterland got about 2" from the last band.

[OHweather]

Got some bursts of moderate snow out here, still seeing some light snow. Very high ratio fluff, shoveled the driveway and it was like pushing features around.

Here is a totals breakdown...had 3.5" as of 1pm Friday...0.8" between 1pm Fri and 11pm Fri...0.4" between 11pm Fri and 9am Sat...and 1.3" between 9am Sat and 12am Sunday. "Storm" total of 6" in 48 hours. Pretty much as forecasted.

The convergence looks like it is hugging the western lakeshore and then stretching inland into Lorain and Medina Counties...with enough moisture to the north of the band in the north flow to produce light snows over much of Cuyahoga, Geauga and northern Summit/Portage Counties. We may see moderate snow along the western lakeshore much of the night as the wind shift appears to be stuck along the shore there...could be 1-3" additional there, and a half inch to an inch additional elsewhere.

All in all, not a blockbuster event in terms of impact. But, from a meteorlogical perspective, definitely a good event as we saw a classic lake effect snow band sit and dump for hours on end over Lake County and storm totals will exceed two feet in about a 48 hour period there. Elsewhere was a notable event (on a scale of nuisance, notable, significant, major, extreme/historic) with a decent period of wind whipped snow on Friday and a band of moderate lake effect that eventually sagged south this evening. Was a fun one to track in the days leading up to and the lake effect, while frustraiting in terms of not moving south Friday night, was fun to watch.

[NEOH]

Picked up 2" or so as the band drifted south last night. Rates were surprisingly weak... I was expecting whiteout conditions but the band started to flare out as it moved south.

Looks like NE lake county was the jackpot.

We have a 2 day warm up coming, then cold and another chance for some lake snows which a more northerly wind direction. Then super torch in the long range... hopefully that changes.

[dta1984]

Ya, the band last night didn't seem too overly impressive. Mostly moderate snow is what i received, and 2" sounds about right. The heavier returns were near Trent, so curious what he got.

Cle mentions another possible sig. lake effect event mid week........

MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS AND FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED BY LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THERE

IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE BANDS WILL LIKELY

PENETRATE DEEPER INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

THIS IS DUE TO THE TRAJECTORY BEING AROUND 320 DEGREES FOR THE SNOW

BANDS. FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND

THIS COULD SHIFT THE BANDS TO A SINGLE BAND ALONG THE LAKESHORE FOR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO FOR POSSIBLE

WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

[Trent]

Picked up 2" or so as the band drifted south last night. Rates were surprisingly weak... I was expecting whiteout conditions but the band started to flare out as it moved south.

Looks like NE lake county was the jackpot.

We have a 2 day warm up coming, then cold and another chance for some lake snows which a more northerly wind direction. Then super torch in the long range... hopefully that changes.

Yeah. I just got 2" as well. The radar was extremely deceptive. I actually started to take a walk just as the radar showed it hitting me, 15 minutes later it was still just flurrying, despite the radar showing it overhead. Then it picked up to moderate snow for 3 hours or so.

The reflectivities were almost less than the band that hit Muskegon at the same time last night. Not quite sure why we were having such strong returns without S+. That 2-3 hour window could have easily been 4-6" if the reflectivities were depositing the rates that were indicated.

I drove out to Lake County this morning to check out the snow. The snow really didn't become noticeably deeper until just after Mentor. I thought the deepest snow was right where Rte 2 goes from highway to 4 lane road. I'll post some pictures later, but there was a good 20" of snow in North Perry. I went to Hogback Ridge and there was about 16" there. South of Madison was definitely not the jackpot as it would have seemed from the PNS, at least on the roads I drove on.

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah. I just got 2" as well. The radar was extremely deceptive. I actually started to take a walk just as the radar showed it hitting me, 15 minutes later it was still just flurrying, despite the radar showing it overhead. Then it picked up to moderate snow for 3 hours or so.

The reflectivities were almost less than the band that hit Muskegon at the same time last night. Not quite sure why we were having such strong returns without S+. That 2-3 hour window could have easily been 4-6" if the reflectivities were depositing the rates that were indicated.

I drove out to Lake County this morning to check out the snow. The snow really didn't become noticeably deeper until just after Mentor. I thought the deepest snow was right where Rte 2 goes from highway to 4 lane road. I'll post some pictures later, but there was a good 20" of snow in North Perry. I went to Hogback Ridge and there was about 16" there. South of Madison was definitely not the jackpot as it would have seemed from the PNS, at least on the roads I drove on.

How about madison and madison on the lake. Did it seem like there was less there then north perry?

[Trent]

How about madison and madison on the lake. Did it seem like there was less there then north perry?

Madison definitely had less snow than North Perry. I did not technically drive through Madison on the Lake, but was a mile from there and the snow was probably 18" deep. Based on the snow that was covering car dealership lots I thought the deepest was between Perry and North Perry.

The stuff was extremely fluffy. It will settle a lot today with the sun, and if it rains early this week it will shrink down 6" in no time.

[Trent]

North Perry:

[Trent]

Madison:

[Trent]

South Madison:

[michsnowfreak]

Beautiful. LES is amazing. I wonder if living in a LES belt the frustration is even greater though, when a nearby town looks like the pics above and you may get just a few inches. What were the ratios? Had about as high ratio snow as Ive ever seen with a LES band here last night. 2.0" of snow with 0.05" water.

[OhioBlizzard]

Beautiful. LES is amazing. I wonder if living in a LES belt the frustration is even greater though, when a nearby town looks like the pics above and you may get just a few inches. What were the ratios? Had about as high ratio snow as Ive ever seen with a LES band here last night. 2.0" of snow with 0.05" water.

The frustration part is really not a factor in my opinion because in some events your location gets crushed while others don't and vice versus, but most of the time if you live somewhere in the belt you get something if not a few inches at least.

[OhioBlizzard]

Madison:

thanks for the pics!

[OHweather]

Not a bad looking lake effect snow profile off the 0z NAM Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. The GFS and NAM are keeping things moist a little longer than the Euro and would likely support about 12 hours +/- of decent lake effect starting at some point Tuesday evening. It's still a little early to get into details, but right now I still am liking up to a few inches for both the primary and secondary belts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Also, awesome pics Trent!

[NEOH]

Great pics Trent. Despite not getting hit with the band, it has finally fet like winter for a few days with the snowcover. The lakeshore areas in lake/ashtabula are kind of like western NY... feast or famine. They get crushed with the long fetch bands (WSW wind set ups) and generally get very little when the winds are NW'erly.

[Trent]

Yeah. It's feast or famine for coastal Lake and Ashtabula Counties.

Interestingly, the snow totals at CLE were all adjusted today for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Odd how they reevaluate totals. I don't even want to know how they measure or if they even measure at all.

[OHweather]

It looks like we will have 3 shots of snow before temps rise well above normal by early next week.

The lake effect prospects for tomorrow night into Wednesday look mediocre, IMO, although one of the WRFs does show the potential for a few inches east of Cleveland:

With the flow gradually becoming NW overnight, there may be a few hours of convergence along the lake shore that shifts inland overnight. These types of events this season, with marginal temps and ok moisture, have tended to produce a general 1-3" as they sag south.

With a cold enough but drier NW flow continuing Wednesday, we will likely need to see the idea of the surface high moving in from the west increasing convergence to verify to see any notable snows on Wednesday.

On Thursday the Euro, GFS and Canadian all agree on bringing a shot of light snow with a clipper system followed by perhaps some modest lake effect Thursday night on a WNW flow. This could be an area wide 1-2" of new snowfall on Thursday.

Friday into Saturday the models all develop a very strong gradient pattern and show Ohio right in the middle of it. An impulse is expected to move east along this gradient and bring a shot of moisture to our area late Friday into Saturday. The models agree on timing, but do not agree on track, stregnth, or the temperature profile across our area.

The GFS is farthest south and doesn't show any significant precip--but would be cold enough for snow.

The UKMET is a bit more amplified than the GFS, and would likely be good for some fringe snows Friday night.

The Euro is about as good of a track as possible for northern Ohio, and keeps the northern counties cold enough for several inches of cement Friday night. Rain would likely mix in south of the Mansfield-Akron-Youngstown corridor.

The Canadain is just a bit farther north than the Euro and shows a snow to rain solution for the northern few rows of counties in NE OH, with mainly rain south.

By Monday it appears we will be running well above normal temp wise.

[Trent]

You have to wonder if Lake Erie will freeze this year. Still no sign of shore ice and not likely anytime this month, which is definitely in our favor.

Snow is melting quickly with the southerly winds, but was to be expected with such a low water content snowpack. Dewpoints will rise through the night and rain should wash everything but the piles by tomorrow night only to start over again a couple times this week.

I'm hoping for a nice big synoptic storm riding up the apps in February that will have an abnormally warm and ice free Lake Erie available for enhancement.

[NEOH]

You have to wonder if Lake Erie will freeze this year. Still no sign of shore ice and not likely anytime this month, which is definitely in our favor.

Snow is melting quickly with the southerly winds, but was to be expected with such a low water content snowpack. Dewpoints will rise through the night and rain should wash everything but the piles by tomorrow night only to start over again a couple times this week.

I'm hoping for a nice big synoptic storm riding up the apps in February that will have an abnormally warm and ice free Lake Erie available for enhancement.

It didn't take long to melt the fluff... even most of the piles are gone this morning.

The western basin will probably ice over at some point if we can get a stretch of cold days. Unless we get sustained cold the central and eastern basins will probably be ice free.

Looks like a short, but possibly intense LES set-up tonight and tomorrow. Snow certainly makes these one or two day warm ups more tolerable.

[Trent]

I'd imagine even the areas that picked up 20" of snow are seeing patches of bare ground appear. Incredible warmth. This is the winter where highs above 50 outnumber those below freezing. Sad.

At least Saturday could shape up to be a moderate snowfall event.

[OHweather]

I'm still rather luke-warm about this LES for tonight--especially since it is mid January...similar amounts in October or April would be much more exciting.

Winds will come around to the NW quickly by 10PM this evening as a strong cold front comes through. Given the strong nature of the flow--see the gale warnings over the lake--and the speed at which the wind shift occurs, I think there will be little time for any convergence to form along the lakeshore. Temps aloft will fall to around -10C by 3z and below -12C by 6z, meaning true lake effect processes will start during that time frame. Given a strong NW flow, multi bands will occur with the higher elevations being favored.

Lake effect parameters are mediocre...when factoring in lake temperatures (BUFKIT would be useful for this purpose) equilibrium levels end up at almost 700mb, which isn't bad. This pushes lake induced instability into the moderate category by around 6z. Winds are very well aligned below 700mb but are a bit fast, ranging from 20 to 40 knots which may limit things somewhat, especially as the winds become more NW early tomorrow morning and the fetch shortens. Moisture is present, but the column is not saturated. Lift off the warm lake should compensate enough to ring out snow however.

All in all, seems like disorganized multi-bands will take hold at some point between 8pm and midnight tonight. The southern edge of the synoptic moisture will clip Lake Erie between 3z and 9z which will help seed the lower levels--I believe this will coincide with the most intense lake effect tonight. Given decently aligned winds and a decent fetch initially becoming mediocre, but moderate lake induced instabilities and reasonably high equilibrium levels, there may be moderate snow rates (0.5"/hr+) where any bands set up. Given the shortening fetch as winds come around to a more NW direction and relatively brisk wind speeds, uplose areas will likely do better than coastal locales. A warmer lake and longer fetch, in addition to more terrain and potential Huron connection will make NW PA the winner here I believe.

Given the relatively short duration, about 9 hours here in Cleveland metro and up to 15 hours in NW PA, I believe snowfall totals will not be overly impressive. Some 4" lolipops appear possible in the higher elevations of extreme eastern Cuyahoga County and Geauga County, with local 6" amounts likely over interior NW PA. The secondary Snow Belt of south-central Cuyahoga, NE Medina and NW Summit County may see up to 3"...elsewhere amounts will be very modest.

Also as a side note, CLE issued a SVR for northern Erie County that just expired. With such a strong LLJ and some peaks of sun, will be interesting to see if the cold front can light up at all before reaching NE OH in a couple of hours.

[NEOH]

I'm still rather luke-warm about this LES for tonight--especially since it is mid January...similar amounts in October or April would be much more exciting.

Winds will come around to the NW quickly by 10PM this evening as a strong cold front comes through. Given the strong nature of the flow--see the gale warnings over the lake--and the speed at which the wind shift occurs, I think there will be little time for any convergence to form along the lakeshore. Temps aloft will fall to around -10C by 3z and below -12C by 6z, meaning true lake effect processes will start during that time frame. Given a strong NW flow, multi bands will occur with the higher elevations being favored.

Lake effect parameters are mediocre...when factoring in lake temperatures (BUFKIT would be useful for this purpose) equilibrium levels end up at almost 700mb, which isn't bad. This pushes lake induced instability into the moderate category by around 6z. Winds are very well aligned below 700mb but are a bit fast, ranging from 20 to 40 knots which may limit things somewhat, especially as the winds become more NW early tomorrow morning and the fetch shortens. Moisture is present, but the column is not saturated. Lift off the warm lake should compensate enough to ring out snow however.

All in all, seems like disorganized multi-bands will take hold at some point between 8pm and midnight tonight. The southern edge of the synoptic moisture will clip Lake Erie between 3z and 9z which will help seed the lower levels--I believe this will coincide with the most intense lake effect tonight. Given decently aligned winds and a decent fetch initially becoming mediocre, but moderate lake induced instabilities and reasonably high equilibrium levels, there may be moderate snow rates (0.5"/hr+) where any bands set up. Given the shortening fetch as winds come around to a more NW direction and relatively brisk wind speeds, uplose areas will likely do better than coastal locales. A warmer lake and longer fetch, in addition to more terrain and potential Huron connection will make NW PA the winner here I believe.

Given the relatively short duration, about 9 hours here in Cleveland metro and up to 15 hours in NW PA, I believe snowfall totals will not be overly impressive. Some 4" lolipops appear possible in the higher elevations of extreme eastern Cuyahoga County and Geauga County, with local 6" amounts likely over interior NW PA. The secondary Snow Belt of south-central Cuyahoga, NE Medina and NW Summit County may see up to 3"...elsewhere amounts will be very modest.

Also as a side note, CLE issued a SVR for northern Erie County that just expired. With such a strong LLJ and some peaks of sun, will be interesting to see if the cold front can light up at all before reaching NE OH in a couple of hours.

Looks like a short lived event that's for certain. Inland areas will be the favored location for snow. The BUF WRF shows a lot of precip in Geauga county (1")... I'm not sure some of that is rain however. As usual, it will be interesting to see how things develop.

Good call on the storms... a line is forming on the west side and heading east. Feels like April out there!

[OHweather]

Looks like a short lived event that's for certain. Inland areas will be the favored location for snow. The BUF WRF shows a lot of precip in Geauga county (1")... I'm not sure some of that is rain however. As usual, it will be interesting to see how things develop.

Good call on the storms... a line is forming on the west side and heading east. Feels like April out there!

Ya, will be curious to see if any official climo sites can hit 60 before the front swings east. Lorain is probably out and CLE will be boarderline but both will probably end up coming in at 57-59 intra-hour. Burke was at 58 and Cuyahoga County airport was at 59 at 3pm!

CLE may light up NE Cuyahoga and Lake Counties for this storm shortly:

[OHweather]

Wind advisories, lake effect snow advisories, a flood warning, and severe thunderstorm warnings!

Edit: Just heard a rumble here! Winds absolutely ripped for about 5 minutes, easily 50 maybe 60MPH...had a small tree in the neighbor's yard snap at the base.

Edit to add outage map:

Over 10k out in Cuyahoga County...2-5k in Summit and Mahoning Counties...5-10k in Ashtabula County...and 500-2,000 in Lake/Geauga/Portage/Trumbull Counties.

Not bad for mid January!

[Trent]

Unbelievable. Snowing really hard here. The ground is already covered. A few hours ago it was 60 degrees and sunny.

So in the past 6 hours we've had 60s and sun, a severe thunderstorm, and now a snow storm. Just amazing.