NEOH Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Ouch. Looks like the band never made it any further south than lake county. Last year the WRF seemed to have a bias of placing the bands too far south. Looks like this was the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm curious what the area between Madison and Mentor got/get. I was hoping it would have swung far enough south to at least clip me. I think it's funny the CLE total didn't change after the climate summary despite moderate snows til 8 pm. Definitely an inch additional afterwards. Great post OHweather! Hopefully the band(s) stay around through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm curious what the area between Madison and Mentor got/get. I was hoping it would have swung far enough south to at least clip me. I think it's funny the CLE total didn't change after the climate summary despite moderate snows til 8 pm. Definitely an inch additional afterwards. Great post OHweather! Hopefully the band(s) stay around through the night. I'm really surprised the band didn't move further south overnight. Light snow is falling now so no complaints. Hope the trough can slip further south today. I have a friend in Painesville Township that lives on the lake. He said around 6-8" but hard to tell because of the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 OHweather - Great post as usual...radar returns show a nice west-east band of LES hitting Lake County...I imagine at rates of 1/2" per hour or locally more. Checked the RUC model and it has the convergence zone moving to about where 322 is and stalling through the AM. Interesting as to what you are saying about a virtual back door cold front bringing the snow back into the area tonight. What are your thoughts about LES Tuesday night into Wednesday? I see some potential there. The Tuesday night into Wednesday potential is interesting. We will by all indications get cold enough for lake effect late Tuesday evening, and hold onto a NW flow into Wednesday. The flow isn't terribly fast so residence time likely won't be terrible, although the fetch will be short. One thing I don't like is right now the models are pulling moisture east and really drying things after 6z Wednesday, that could really put a lid on things as dry NW flows often don't work out. The potential for a few inches does appears to be present though, even if things don't all work out. And it will be intersting to see if things work out tonight...the band is starting to shift farther NE as appeared likely, should start swinging back by mid to late afternoon.. Getting some very fluffly light snow here though, which was nice to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm really surprised the band didn't move further south overnight. Light snow is falling now so no complaints. Hope the trough can slip further south today. I have a friend in Painesville Township that lives on the lake. He said around 6-8" but hard to tell because of the winds. Ya, that is one sexy band. I'm hoping it drifts south sometime today. Or maybe we can get another one to fire up sometime today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Only picked up 4.2" here in northern portage. Lake effect bands never really got close to us. On the other hand madison village seems to be the winner so far in NE ohio with just over a foot so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That 19" report seems a bit suspect. But I'm sure an isolated spot or two has close to a foot. Looks like the warning, unfortunately, did not verify for Cuyahoga County. It also appears CLE still has measuring problems. The climate summary yesterday afternoon had 4.6" yet it continued to snow all evening. The evening report showed a depth of 4", yet the depth this morning was 5" with only a trace of new snow. Obviously there's some missing accumulation and no doubt it will never be recorded. I had emailed the NWS about this last year and they agreed that the seasonal CLE total was probably 6-10" short of actual. So take any climate histories with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That 19" report seems a bit suspect. But I'm sure an isolated spot or two has close to a foot. Looks like the warning, unfortunately, did not verify for Cuyahoga County. It also appears CLE still has measuring problems. The climate summary yesterday afternoon had 4.6" yet it continued to snow all evening. The evening report showed a depth of 4", yet the depth this morning was 5" with only a trace of new snow. Obviously there's some missing accumulation and no doubt it will never be recorded. I had emailed the NWS about this last year and they agreed that the seasonal CLE total was probably 6-10" short of actual. So take any climate histories with a grain of salt. where did you see a 19" report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 where did you see a 19" report? ...GEAUGA COUNTY... 5 S MADISON 5 S 19.0 901 AM 1/14 1 SSE MONTVILLE 4.0 830 AM 1/14 2 W SOUTH RUSSELL 2.5 800 AM 1/14 First of all, 5 miles south of Madison is Thompson, so that's an odd description. No doubt it's a drift. The "Hell Hollow" metropark is actually right near that spot, which is a great spot to go in winter. I'll have to check it out in the morning. Even if that total is suspect they should add several more inches today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 ...GEAUGA COUNTY... 5 S MADISON 5 S 19.0 901 AM 1/14 1 SSE MONTVILLE 4.0 830 AM 1/14 2 W SOUTH RUSSELL 2.5 800 AM 1/14 First of all, 5 miles south of Madison is Thompson, so that's an odd description. No doubt it's a drift. The "Hell Hollow" metropark is actually right near that spot, which is a great spot to go in winter. I'll have to check it out in the morning. Even if that total is suspect they should add several more inches today and tomorrow. 19" seems really high. I would have thought the northern section of madison would be on the higher end. Looks that the backdoor cold front that could potentially push the band south is around southern lake huron... so a long way to go to have any effect on our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Updated discussion from Cle saying the bands will start sagging south this afternoon .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE TO FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. A COUPLE OF BANDS WERE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NY AND WERE JUST CLIPPING NE ERIE COUNTY PA. THE STRONGEST BAND STILL IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE FLOWING INTO NE LAKE COUNTY ACROSS NORTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY AND LIKELY INTO NW PA NEAR THE ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTY LINE. IMAGINE THAT 1+ INCHES PER HOUR HAVE PERSISTED IN THESE BANDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THESE BANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BANDS OVER WRN NY HAVE DEFINITELY INDICATED THAT THIS HAS BEGUN. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT WARNING. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 These extremely long duration winter storm warnings must be incredibly confusing to the general public. Especially when you have winter storm warnings out for lake effect snow, and last week there were lake effect snow warnings out for both initial system snow and lake effect. Just listening to various radio stations this morning made me chuckle at how these warnings get regurgitated to the public and send a false sense of urgency. The warnings probably should have been replaced with lake effect snow warnings last night at the 10pm update or at least with the 3:30am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 These extremely long duration winter storm warnings must be incredibly confusing to the general public. Especially when you have winter storm warnings out for lake effect snow, and last week there were lake effect snow warnings out for both initial system snow and lake effect. Just listening to various radio stations this morning made me chuckle at how these warnings get regurgitated to the public and send a false sense of urgency. The warnings probably should have been replaced with lake effect snow warnings last night at the 10pm update or at least with the 3:30am update. I'm not as concerned with warning type but Cuyahoga County is going to see an 18-24 hour gap in even moderate snow but will be under a warning the whole time. Warnings are also slated to expire at 4 last I checked but someone may squeeze out advisory criteria tonight if the bands can sink back south.Edit: Warnings were extended till 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm not as concerned with warning type but Cuyahoga County is going to see an 18-24 hour gap in even moderate snow but will be under a warning the whole time. Warnings are also slated to expire at 4 last I checked but someone may squeeze out advisory criteria tonight if the bands can sink back south.Edit: Warnings were extended till 4am. What time do you think the band starts moving south? I'm just not sure its going to happen. The BUF WRF shows the same areas that got hit last night getting it again. I wonder if there is some type of connection to lake michigan... or maybe it is riding along the trough convergence area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 What time do you think the band starts moving south? I'm just not sure its going to happen. The BUF WRF shows the same areas that got hit last night getting it again. I wonder if there is some type of connection to lake michigan... or maybe it is riding along the trough convergence area. Just using the WRF as a guide, it's been pretty accurate today with that band placement. Unfortunately, not so much the past few days. It has it sliding south into NE Cuyahoga County around 10 pm, it breaks up substantially during the night, with just an inch or three. I will definitely be driving out to Lake County tomorrow. No doubt with that stubborn band that places will have 12-15" on the ground. All in all, now, I'm kind of bummed over this event. It started strong and ended weak. Even a quick 2-4" from a band sliding through last night would have sealed the deal. This white stuff is already settling fast and with 40 on Monday ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I just got back from Mentor, and there was a little more snow there than what we have here.....maybe a couple inches more, but not much. I'm sure if i drove further east there would have been much more. Really hoping that band drops south tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 What time do you think the band starts moving south? I'm just not sure its going to happen. The BUF WRF shows the same areas that got hit last night getting it again. I wonder if there is some type of connection to lake michigan... or maybe it is riding along the trough convergence area. The band is drifting back south now. I have been at work since 10 and haven't checked any models, but band placement isn't quite strait forward, as it will be a battle between a weak push if cooler air and high pressure trying to build in from the west. However, I think the band stands a chance at making it farther than last night as the inverted trough never moved south into Ohio last night, so there was nothing to force the band off the eastern lakeshore.I also like that we are seeing some snow south of the primary band...meaning if the primary band struggles to move south the eastern suburbs and secondary belt will at least see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 As mentioned in the previous post, the lake effect snowband still going strong NE of Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The band appears it may be intensifying a bit. Slowly sagging south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Taking a drive to Lake County right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Taking a drive to Lake County right now Brave. Be careful. I-90 can be a mess in Lake County during those bands, especially at night. Here's to hoping it slides far enough south and parks it through Cuyahoga overnight. I'll be headed out Madison/Thompson way in the morning to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Any estimates on how much we could see from this band ? Getting very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That band is definitely intensifying and growing wider as it slides south. It's basically going to be a nowcast with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Thanks, Trent. I got off at 322 to take one last look at radar. It looks like I'll go from nothing to S+ in the next 5-8 minutes of drive time. Am planning on going 90 to 306 and reassessing there...that should take me through some of the heavier snows. I should be checking in in 20 minutes from Eskimo land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Any estimates on how much we could see from this band ? Getting very close. It's likely 1-2" per hour rates with it. The question is how long will it sit over any one spot, whether there's a pivot point and who's under it, and how it reacts once it parallels with the coast. Lots of scenarios with this. It might just continue to sag south and give pretty much everyone 3" before it just dissipates. Or it will pick a spot, and hang out a bit longer. Definitely going to be exciting to watch. I've got about 9 more miles before it hits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 MEGA SNOW BAND INTO LAKE COUNTY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS MOVED FROM MISSOURI INTO ERN TENNESSEE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. AS LOW SHIFTS EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTH-NORHTWEST ALLOWING THE BAND TO PUSH INLAND. WHERE BAND SHIFT INLAND COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES IN A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE IT ENDS. ALL 3 MODELS MOVE BAND INLAND TONIGHT...BUT TIMING VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS IN MY FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW. ALL 3 MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF CLEAR OUT HOWEVER. GFS CLEARS THINGS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH...WHILE NAM SLOWER...NOT CLEARING THINGS OUT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CHOSE THE SLOWER NAM FOR MY SUNDAY FORECAST. DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Went 306 to 84w and am now at rt 84 and 91. Visibilities are down to a quarter mile in the band along with decently sized dendrites. Given this snow rates are likely around 1" per hour right now under the band.. Although it is possible I didn't quite hit the heart of it. Band definitely sagging south and will go 91S to Gates Mills and report what I drive through on the way. Roads are snow covered but not impassible under the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It is snowing here at 91/322 which is just east of 271/322. Was snowing moderately down to Wilson Mills (correction) and heavily about a mile north of there. Dta and NEOH will get in on the action soon, Trent looks close as well. Am hoping the band slows down when it parallels the lake shore so you guys can get dumped on for a decent amount of time. Winds are almost SW here on the south side of the snow band, so definitely a good amount of convergence associated with this band.Edit: Am back in Willoughby and in the past 45 minutes 1.2" of snow has fallen in the spot I cleared in this Walgreens parking lot...so about 1.5" an hour. Have obligations to tend to so am heading back towards home, or else I would drive out to where the band sat last night to get some snow depth info. Definitely glad this underdog ending if you will seems to be working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Heaviest returns sit just to my north. Anxiously awaiting what lies 4 miles out over the lake: DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AS EXPECTED WITH HEAVY SNOW FOCUSED FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO NORTHERN GEAUGA/SOUTHERN ASHTABULA/SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE BAND LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...ALTHOUGH SOME MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS NOW HELPING TO SPREAD THAT AMOUNT OUT OVER A LARGER AREA. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT CLE AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT ERI. HIGH RES MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND MERGES WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPSTREAM RADARS DO SHOW A MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDING TO LAKE ERIE WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS BAND DESPITE VERY DRY AIR PINCHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA...CENTRAL GEAUGA AND NORTHERN TRUMBALL COUNTIES...BEFORE THE BAND EVENTUALLY STARTS TO LOSE ORGANIZATION. ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE DOMINANT SNOW BAND STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 ADDITIONAL INCHES WITH LOCALLALY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6+ AND HAVE BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN TRUMBALL COUNTY. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH SNOW IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN IN ERIE COUNTY. WE WILL EVALUATE BEING ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE WARNING FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Got moderate snow here. Big flakes ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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