NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Winds are howling out there. Hard to tell but it looks like 1-2 inches. Appears there is low or vort moving just south of here... at least that is what it looks like on the satellite. Radar looks nice on the west side. The WRF really hammers the east side. Easily 12+ if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Almost at 2" here with moderate snow this morning. I bet we pick up another inch as this batch slides on east. Then things get interesting towards the end of afternoon into tonight. I really hope places get up to a foot in Northern Geauga. If all plays out as advertised, I even should be grazed with 4-6" of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Almost at 2" here with moderate snow this morning. I bet we pick up another inch as this batch slides on east. Then things get interesting towards the end of afternoon into tonight. I really hope places get up to a foot in Northern Geauga. If all plays out as advertised, I even should be grazed with 4-6" of LES. I'm going with 1.5" as the morning measurement. Definitely less as I headed south to Chagrin. Is that an area of covergence out to the west? Those returns are strong. Even if those high precip amounts don't verify... cutting them in half would be significant. You should do fine... downtown out east looks like the key area for primary band development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Wow wrf looks nice ! I would have to guess around 2 in so far. Glad to see the synoptic portion of the event isn't going to disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'm going with 1.5" as the morning measurement. Definitely less as I headed south to Chagrin. Is that an area of covergence out to the west? Those returns are strong. Even if those high precip amounts don't verify... cutting them in half would be significant. You should do fine... downtown out east looks like the key area for primary band development. I woke up at night to check radar, it was definitely hugging the coast for a few hours. CLE up to heavy snow this hour as the next batch slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Wow wrf looks nice ! I would have to guess around 2 in so far. Glad to see the synoptic portion of the event isn't going to disappoint. I'm surprised to see the area of mod/heavy snowfall out to the west. Not sure I saw that on any of the models. Snow should really pick-up as the morning goes along. As you mentioned, the synoptic snows are looking good. Looks and feel like Winter out there. Hopefully the LES can deliver later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'm surprised to see the area of mod/heavy snowfall out to the west. Not sure I saw that on any of the models. Snow should really pick-up as the morning goes along. As you mentioned, the synoptic snows are looking good. Looks and feel like Winter out there. Hopefully the LES can deliver later today and tonight. The rapid refresh last night moved the heavy stuff to the west side rather than east. Its dumping on the west side now. It shows no sign of dying. Might be some good amounts if this holds past noon. But these flare ups tend to die down just as fast. All in all shaping up to be a great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The rapid refresh last night moved the heavy stuff to the west side rather than east. Its dumping on the west side now. It shows no sign of dying. Might be some good amounts if this holds past noon. But these flare ups tend to die down just as fast. All in all shaping up to be a great event. It's coming down pretty good in Chagrin... under fairly light returns. Snow must be ripping at 1-2 under the heavier returns. This flare-up has been pretty resilent with no sign of dying down. Should be good for several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's coming down pretty good in Chagrin... under fairly light returns. Snow must be ripping at 1-2 under the heavier returns. This flare-up has been pretty resilent with no sign of dying down. Should be good for several inches. Airport looks to be over 3" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Airport looks to be over 3" now. Your call of 2.7" busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Your call of 2.7" busted Big time! I thought this was going to be an east side event! Edit: looks like they corrected the METAR. CLE is at 4". Hopefully the les over performs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Big time! I thought this was going to be an east side event! Edit: looks like they corrected the METAR. CLE is at 4". Hopefully the les over performs too. Nice. Looks like the snow is weakening on radar... still coming down though. We'll probably see a few more rounds of snow before LES kicks up later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Dry air doing its magic quickly. Dewpoints are quite low compared to the temperature. We'll see once winds become more westerly what happens. CLE had 0.7" before midnight. The pns showed 1.8", but im sure that was 7 am not 10 as METAR showed more. Who knows what the official number will be and if its accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 New wrf appears to still be looking good. Bullseyes; ne cuyh and lake/ geauga border it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 New wrf appears to still be looking good. Bullseyes; ne cuyh and lake/ geauga border it looks like. The WRF has pretty much locked in on that area the past few runs. Trent's BY out through LakeEffectOH is pretty much the jackpot zone... if the band verifies of course. Looks like moisture is starting to move in from the west. The lull should end pretty quickly as the afternoon goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think it is going to be easier to stay cold now, there is actually a snow cover in the northern plains and canada that will probaly not go anywhere anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The WRF has pretty much locked in on that area the past few runs. Trent's BY out through LakeEffectOH is pretty much the jackpot zone... if the band verifies of course. Looks like moisture is starting to move in from the west. The lull should end pretty quickly as the afternoon goes on. I'm excited about it. We should do really well with high ratios maybe helping out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 After averaging things out I'm going to go with 3.5" as my storm total as of 1PM...with a margin of error on the measurment of up to .5" in either direction. Some areas you can see the tips of the grass poking through while other areas are drifted over and have 6 to 12" of snowcover. This morning was nice...drove into work at 5:30 when things were starting to pick up. Saw about 6 hours of non-stop moderate to briefly heavy snow and decent blowing snow as well. Things started to die down around 11:30 although it hasn't completely stopped snowing. There was a snow drift a foot deep surrounding my manager's car when I left, and she was dreading the fact that there was nothing her remote start could do about that Anyways, satellite shows one last band of enhanced cloud tops to move through from west to east between now and likely 4-5PM. With the NW mid level flow some lake moisture may be picked up, and I'd guess most areas will see an addition half inch to inch of snow through 7pm, the exception being the Snow Belt, where more is likely. The surface wind shift is currently over northern Lake Erie. To the north, winds are coming from a NNW direction...to the south, winds are WSW. This wind shift is progged to slowly sag south through the late afternoon, and will likely move onshore this evening. It will not likely make a ton of progress inland. This supports the much talked of idea of a primary snowband setting up from potentially near Cleveland east into the Mayfield area into northern Geauga/southern Lake Counties. Here, I think 4-8" additional is likely though tomorrow morning, locally more if the band sets up and produces. Farther south into the secondary Snow Belt things are not as clear. The flow aloft will be northwesterly but all signs are that the surface wind shift will stay north of the secondary Snow Belt. Right now I'm going with an uncertain 1-3" additional through tomorrow morning for southern Cuyahoga and far southern Geauga Counties, into northern Summit/Portage counties. The WNW to NW flow aloft would usually favor a snow band setting up in that corridor, but the convergence will likely not get that far south for a significant period of time. Saturday night into Sunday there may be a flare up of lake effect in the light northwesterly flow behind the clipper that will move through Saturday. There will be little to no synoptic snow, but moderate to extreme lake induced instability and a moist boundary layer will favor more lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday. I am not at all confident in band placement for Saturday night as the surface flow will be light and variable, but the secondary Snow Belt may be in the game Saturday night into Sunday if surface convergence can shift back southwest behind the clipper. If ridging building in from the west dominates, the primary Snow Belt may win again Saturday night/Sunday. There are models supporting both solutions at this time. Given the likely weak flow, if banding develops someone could get dumped on Saturday night. CLE may need to extend headlines in some areas for this possibility. For the record (if it matters) I will likely count this as two seperate events in my book, as any lake effect tomorrow night will be touched off by the clipper that will move through tomorrow, not the storm pulling away to the NE. If there ends up not being a noticable break in the snow, I may reconsider the "seperate events" stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Hard to tell when the winds will shift tonight. I see that as the biggest wild card. At least we know the band is there since it is apparent on radar. When it does come onshore it will be intense. 5-10" seems reasonable... could be a lot more if the band sits in one location and holds intensity. THE LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE ERIE AND AS OF 3 PM WAS JUST OFFSHORE OF ERIE NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOCATIONS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY HUG THE LAKESHORE FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SETTLING SLOWLY INLAND. WHERE THIS BAND RESIDES EXPECT TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO UNDER 1/2 MILE WITH SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE REMAINING GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT STILL PLENTY STRONG TO KEEP BLOWING IT AROUND. THIS INITIAL LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL MOVE INLAND AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL THEN AWAIT ADDITIONAL BANDS TO DEVELOP AS EVEN COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE LAKE. SINCE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA LOOKS REASONABLE. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS AREA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. WE JUST EXTENDED IT THROUGH 6 PM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE. AS USUAL THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Band is still over the northern half of Lake Erie, although the radar is juicy back into Michigan so light snows should continue until it begins sagging south and hopefully starts moving inland at some point after 7pm in NE OH. I may have to take a drive up towards the 322 corridor if the band sets up before midnight. Later than that it would probably be more logical not to drive into blinding snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Band is still over the northern half of Lake Erie, although the radar is juicy back into Michigan so light snows should continue until it begins sagging south and hopefully starts moving inland at some point after 7pm in NE OH. I may have to take a drive up towards the 322 corridor if the band sets up before midnight. Later than that it would probably be more logical not to drive into blinding snows. Hopefully it will set up well before midnight... although the WSW winds tend to hold on longer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 There is an outdoor hockey game tomorrow evening at progressive between osu and Michigan. Be nice if there was some good snow to go along with it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 4.6" so far at CLE. Way better than I thought. It's impossible to measure this stuff though. There was about 2.5" in the area that my car left blank when I left for work this morning. A lot of that of course is drift over from the stuff overnight. I took a lot of 3.5" measurements in the backyard, so with settling we probably had about 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Here is what is slowly coming down the lakeshore: Radar continuing to fill in, the visibility is falling below one mile again in some of the more moderate bursts of snow. The wind shift is still over northern Lake Erie, although the synoptic moisture is moving in from the NW so the lake is likely enhancing it. Can't wait for that band to make it into Ohio though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 4.6" so far at CLE. Way better than I thought. It's impossible to measure this stuff though. There was about 2.5" in the area that my car left blank when I left for work this morning. A lot of that of course is drift over from the stuff overnight. I took a lot of 3.5" measurements in the backyard, so with settling we probably had about 4". I was surprised by the snow amount too. NWS CLE handled it well and it's a good thing they kept the advisories up. I decided not to measure it tonight or report it to the NWS. It ranges in my yard from 0 to 14". I don't think it snowed 7" today and any other number would just be a guestimate. I can't imagine doing a water equivalent with the snow today. Would any of it have made it into a rain gauge with all the wind? And then there is all the drifting making a core sample just about impossible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Got a report from a friend in Lorain, said that he thought it was about 3-4", with 1 to 2 foot drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Looks the band is slowly moving south with new development over the western basin. Might be a longer wait than expected. Hopefully things will get interesting in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Quick question..... why do the short range models (wrf) show qpf being more west to east oriented? It seems like the band is moving north to south, unless i am seeing it wrong. Seems to be a band from dt out west, then another healthy one over the center of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The remainder of this lake effect event should be fun to watch unfold. I'm tired and it's late, so I'm going to settle with watching flurries out my window at home and the heavy snow on radar for tonight. The lake effect band is slowly sagging south at 3-5MPH. It appears as though the band will reach its southpoint within a couple hours of 7am this morning. It appears as though heavy snow may make it as far south as 322. North of 322, an additional 2-5" seems likely through 7am. South of 322, amounts will be neglidgable, although southeastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga Counties may get clipped by enough lake effect to locally squeeze out an additional inch or so through 7am. Saturday I think we may see some interesting snow band evolutions. First of all, I will go on record as saying I think at the very least moderately strong snow bands will continue off Lake Erie all the way through tonight (Saturday night). This is a bit different than CLE's forecast, but with a light flow greatly increasing residence time by this afternoon, a boundary layer remaining moist into Sunday morning, lake-850mb temp differencials remaining at or greater than 15C through Sunday morning, and inversions hovering up around 8-10k feet through early Sunday morning I believe snow will continue downwind of the lake. Today into tonight will be a give and take situation between high pressure trying to build in from the west and the storm well off to our northeast...with a bit of a clipper thrown into the mix. There is still an inverted trough hanging back through the central Great Lakes. This trough is slowly sagging south, with a northerly flow north of the trough and a more westerly flow south of it. This trough will continue to drift south, but likely won't cross Lake Erie until late this afternoon, meaning the high pressure trying to build in from the west will control our surface wind direction until then. The high will begin trying to nose in after 7am this morning. This will force a more southwesterly surface flow and slowly push the lake effect band northeastward this morning. However, this afternoon a weak clipper will move right into this surface high and cause the flow to become light and variable. The denser, cold air north of the aforementioned inverted trough will force the trough to slip southward into northeast OH and act as a backdoor cold front of sorts when surface ridging relaxes. This will enhance convergence and force convergence with any existing lake effect bands back southwest. Right now, some high-res models bring the convergence into the west side of Cleveland, while others keep it over the primary Snow Belt...either way, this would bring a lake effect snow band back into northeastern OH. This snow band should last into early Sunday morning, when riding noses in and pushes the convergence rapidly northeast, dry air moves in and inversions crash. So, we may see a slow moving but intense snow band or two that drifts around today and tonight. This could drop an additional 3-7" AFTER 7am this morning over the primary Snow Belt, with additional accumulations possible farther west, depending on where banding gets tonight. In a somewhat similar situation at the beginning of the month, the backdoor cold front made it into eastern Cuyahoga/Summit counties before retreating back northeast, and right now snow getting into the eastern suburbs for a time tonight (Saturday night) seems like a good guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 OHweather - Great post as usual...radar returns show a nice west-east band of LES hitting Lake County...I imagine at rates of 1/2" per hour or locally more. Checked the RUC model and it has the convergence zone moving to about where 322 is and stalling through the AM. Interesting as to what you are saying about a virtual back door cold front bringing the snow back into the area tonight. What are your thoughts about LES Tuesday night into Wednesday? I see some potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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