Trent Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This thread should probably be renamed the "Northern Ohio Winter 2011/2012 thread" The "dry slot" has been well advertised for days from about Sandusky up through Detroit. That could just as easily slide our direction. I do think this will be a run of the mill 2-4" event that has slightly higher impact because it hits during a work day rush. I think the lake effect is still up in the air regarding specifics til tomorrow. I'm hoping for a decent band somewhere as I want to test out some snow shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This thread should probably be renamed the "Northern Ohio Winter 2011/2012 thread" The "dry slot" has been well advertised for days from about Sandusky up through Detroit. That could just as easily slide our direction. I do think this will be a run of the mill 2-4" event that has slightly higher impact because it hits during a work day rush. I think the lake effect is still up in the air regarding specifics til tomorrow. I'm hoping for a decent band somewhere as I want to test out some snow shoes. Good idea. Maybe Steve can change the thread name. Going conservative with 2-4 huh. That could easily verify along with the higher amounts. Things are going about as forecast so hopefully the dry slot does in fact stay to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The WRF models show a nice band setting up tomorrow afternoon. The slug of precipitation will probably just graze us over night. I think 2-4" through noon tomorrow is realistic. If it slides 20 miles west we'll be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nice forecast as usual. Good call with snowfall amounts. Couple of wild cards that could affect snowfall... the models show a slug of precip wrapping into the strengthening low from the south, but it looks like the precip will head east of here. If this moves more to the west we could see more synoptic snow. Also, I don't see the winds coming around to a favorable direction for lake enhanced snow. The winds do veer but it would be pure LES at that point. I could certainly be wrong about all of this. Anyway, let's hope your snowfall map verifies. Winter arrives, again, tomorrow. Ya, it is more of a pure lake effect when the winds shift. There will likely be some enhancement along the eastern lake shore tomorrow with the WSW flow but I agree winds won't come around to a more WNW direction till Friday night. Ya, it will be nice if those amounts verify. Should be wintry, either way. This round of winter also may be short lived, but the mid range models are not consistent at this time so I definitely don't want to say we'll torch again in a week. Right now I think the slug of moisture clips us tonight and drops a quick half inch to potentially inch east. As you and Trent said, farther west and we could see more. We will probably see a lull/dry slot/period of lighter precip for a few hours tonight before the wrap around starts working in towards morning. I think 2-4" by noon tomorrow is reasonable, with potentially more after, especially in the Snow Belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 OHweather, Great writeup! Are you a met or a met student? At any rate, nice looking convergance zone over the primary snowbelt. Looks as when the H7 low passes eastward, the deeper moisture will get enhanced by Lake Huron. the northerly winds will have a nice fetch, so snow totals for tomorrow may be heavier than 2" - 3". "This round of winter also may be short lived, but the mid range models are not consistent at this time so I definitely don't want to say we'll torch again in a week." We might torch for 24 - 48 hrs towards the middle of next week, but otherwise, there will be cold and opportunities for LES and possible clippers over the next 10 days. However, in the 11 - 15 period, there is a lot of model agreement that the EPO will go very positive and that Alaskan vortex will regenerate. Does not look good for that time period as from that setup. there will be a zonal flow of warmed Pacific air. If blocking occurs which the 0z Euro shows a fairly good block over Greenland starting at 192h, the torch caused by a +EPO/Alaskan vortex combo might be mitigated, hopefully. I also think February will be a pretty good month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 OHweather, Great writeup! Are you a met or a met student? At any rate, nice looking convergance zone over the primary snowbelt. Looks as when the H7 low passes eastward, the deeper moisture will get enhanced by Lake Huron. the northerly winds will have a nice fetch, so snow totals for tomorrow may be heavier than 2" - 3". "This round of winter also may be short lived, but the mid range models are not consistent at this time so I definitely don't want to say we'll torch again in a week." We might torch for 24 - 48 hrs towards the middle of next week, but otherwise, there will be cold and opportunities for LES and possible clippers over the next 10 days. However, in the 11 - 15 period, there is a lot of model agreement that the EPO will go very positive and that Alaskan vortex will regenerate. Does not look good for that time period as from that setup. there will be a zonal flow of warmed Pacific air. If blocking occurs which the 0z Euro shows a fairly good block over Greenland starting at 192h, the torch caused by a +EPO/Alaskan vortex combo might be mitigated, hopefully. I also think February will be a pretty good month. Thanks! For now I am at Tri-C but am planning on transfering to Ohio U next fall to take classes for a meteorology degree. I think what happens during the day tomorrow is somewhat up in the air...the winds at 700mb will turn more northwesterly during the afternoon as the mid level low pulls away, but winds from 850mb on down will remain W-SW into the evening...the synoptic snow may be enhanced by the lake on the backside of the 700mb low though, and we have seen this mid level low track produce before (note the secondary starting to take over just east of Lake Erie): Given this uncertainty, I'll stick to a general 2-3" forecast from 7am to 7pm tomorrow but I think more will be possible in the Snow Belt. This look off the ECM ensembles at day 10 isn't a good one: With the MJO now expected to collapse and end back up in phase 4-5, the poor forecasted Pacific pattern will likely begin developing by the end of next week and remain in place to end out the month. Beyond day 10, the GFS tries to slowly build a bit of a thumb ridge into the Davis Strait--this might save us from seeing 60 degree weather to round out the month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 CLE's thoughts via Facebook: "Potential snow amounts tonight through Sunday morning. Blowing and drifting snow will become a significant problem...especially in the warning area" Based on their image caption, we will see warnings fly for the Snow Belt with the afternoon forecast update...here is the link to their Facebook page: http://www.facebook....e.Cleveland.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 OHweather, Great writeup! Are you a met or a met student? At any rate, nice looking convergance zone over the primary snowbelt. Looks as when the H7 low passes eastward, the deeper moisture will get enhanced by Lake Huron. the northerly winds will have a nice fetch, so snow totals for tomorrow may be heavier than 2" - 3". "This round of winter also may be short lived, but the mid range models are not consistent at this time so I definitely don't want to say we'll torch again in a week." We might torch for 24 - 48 hrs towards the middle of next week, but otherwise, there will be cold and opportunities for LES and possible clippers over the next 10 days. However, in the 11 - 15 period, there is a lot of model agreement that the EPO will go very positive and that Alaskan vortex will regenerate. Does not look good for that time period as from that setup. there will be a zonal flow of warmed Pacific air. If blocking occurs which the 0z Euro shows a fairly good block over Greenland starting at 192h, the torch caused by a +EPO/Alaskan vortex combo might be mitigated, hopefully. I also think February will be a pretty good month. As Trent mentioned, the local WRF shows quite a firehose developing - lake and ashtabula should do really well. Then points south as the winds come around. I'm not even looking at the long-term stuff until this event concludes. I have a feeling with need to savor each event as if it will be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 CLE's thoughts via Facebook: "Potential snow amounts tonight through Sunday morning. Blowing and drifting snow will become a significant problem...especially in the warning area" Based on their image caption, we will see warnings fly for the Snow Belt with the afternoon forecast update...here is the link to their Facebook page: http://www.facebook....e.Cleveland.gov Wow. CLE on facebook! It's probably better that I forget that link exists. I might not be able hold back on posting criticism lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 315 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 .SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND PUSH INLAND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW WHERE SNOW BANDS PERSIST. OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-130415- /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0001.120113T0500Z-120115T1500Z/ CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE 315 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS....2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES FRIDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND PERSIST. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. * WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. * TEMPERATURES...WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. Elsewhere: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 315 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 .SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND PUSH INLAND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW WHERE SNOW BANDS PERSIST. OHZ010-020>023-029>033-038-047-130415- /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0001.120113T0500Z-120113T2000Z/ LORAIN-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE- STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-KNOX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA... WARREN...MANSFIELD...ASHLAND...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN... MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON 315 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS....2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FRIDAY. * TIMING...TONIGHT * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. * TEMPERATURES...WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. I generally agree with the warning/advisory placement and text. I do think Summit/Portage/Trubull may need to have their advisory extended as winds take on a more northerly component Friday evening through Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Seems like a reasonable forecast from CLE. Time to sit back and watch things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I bet the airport only gets 2.7" total tomorrow. They will be too far west for the slug of precipitation over night and too far SW for the lake effect. I think places in northern geauga will do quite well. If that primary band develops along the shore tomorrow through downtown and out to the east side, the forecasts will verify, but these bands tend to have a mind of their own. By the way, CLE is running a 15" deficit as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 CLE is forecasting 3-7" along I-75 for a storm total, I have a hard time believing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 "This look off the ECM ensembles at day 10 isn't a good one:" Just after posting my post, I checked the 10 day 12z Euro Op, and it more resembled the ensemble image you posted. If there is no blocking (the 12z Eu Op took the feature I mentioned in the 0z for the most part), it will be shorts time...We may have to endure this for a couple of weeks, before the horribly +EPO relaxes and a new PNA ridge pops, say in early Feb. Hopefully the next PNA ridge will be more amplified than the ones we've had this winter. I try to be optimistic here... P.S. Congratulations on going to OSU for meterology classes. You seem to have a lot of talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 HRR looks a lot more reasonable to me....widespread 1-2" amounts 3" lollipops except for much more over northern IN, IL, SW MI. Just not seeing the love on radar. Hope is for an isolated heavy snowsquall that could put down a quick inch or two. Btw, NW ohio and especially southeast MI are the screw zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 HRR looks a lot more reasonable to me....widespread 1-2" amounts 3" lollipops except for much more over northern IN, IL, SW MI. Just not seeing the love on radar. Hope is for an isolated heavy snowsquall that could put down a quick inch or two. Btw, NW ohio and especially southeast MI are the screw zones. Yep, there's quite the large and expanding dry slot over Indiana and parts of western Ohio. That stuff to the northwest will either likely break up as it swings around or move too far north. I think ILN jumped the gun by expanding the advisory. We may luck out getting an inch given trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yep, there's quite the large and expanding dry slot over Indiana and parts of western Ohio. That stuff to the northwest will either likely break up as it swings around or move too far north. I think ILN jumped the gun by expanding the advisory. We may luck out getting an inch given trends. i wouldn't fault ILN for issuing the advisory. Let's face it, this might be our big kahuna for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 HRR looks a lot more reasonable to me....widespread 1-2" amounts 3" lollipops except for much more over northern IN, IL, SW MI. Just not seeing the love on radar. Hope is for an isolated heavy snowsquall that could put down a quick inch or two. Btw, NW ohio and especially southeast MI are the screw zones. Depends on what you go off of. HRRR is a lot better than the RUC (which shows basically nothing), and the NAM is just turrible. Yep, there's quite the large and expanding dry slot over Indiana and parts of western Ohio. That stuff to the northwest will either likely break up as it swings around or move too far north. I think ILN jumped the gun by expanding the advisory. We may luck out getting an inch given trends. It will likely stay too far North of CMH to do anything here, let alone CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 i wouldn't fault ILN for issuing the advisory. Let's face it, this might be our big kahuna for the season Having 0.9" through January 11th is a good sign where things are headed. Seasonal trend. I know it's only January 12th and things can change, but I'm already ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Having 0.9" through January 11th is a good sign where things are headed. Seasonal trend. I know it's only January 12th and things can change, but I'm already ready for spring. so what's the least snow cmh has ever received for a season? I may very well jump on that bandwagon if we haven't already ruined the chance of breaking that record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think the synoptic part of this storm will be a dud. Radar returns aren't promising and the short term models hardly give more than 2" outside of extreme eastern Ohio. I'm quite surprised that the entire state of Ohio is currently under an advisory or a warning. In fact, almost the entire midwest and Ohio Valley is under some sort of advisory. I'm sure it has mostly to do with the fact there's been virtually no system snow in these parts in almost 10 months. I think one of the AFDs even mentioned that most will not see advisory criteria snow, but issued them for the travel aspect. I think here in Cleveland, lake effect (as always) will hopefully save the day. There's definitely been some hints at a primary lake effect snow band developing tomorrow afternoon. See the latest QPF totals through tomorrow night. Favored locales will surely do well and even here on the west side there'll probably be enough for 2-4", Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 "This look off the ECM ensembles at day 10 isn't a good one:" Just after posting my post, I checked the 10 day 12z Euro Op, and it more resembled the ensemble image you posted. If there is no blocking (the 12z Eu Op took the feature I mentioned in the 0z for the most part), it will be shorts time...We may have to endure this for a couple of weeks, before the horribly +EPO relaxes and a new PNA ridge pops, say in early Feb. Hopefully the next PNA ridge will be more amplified than the ones we've had this winter. I try to be optimistic here... P.S. Congratulations on going to OSU for meterology classes. You seem to have a lot of talent. Thanks! Lake NEOH said, trying to not focus on the mid-long range and enjoy the snow at hand (although, it is hard not to wonder "what's next") Here is my final call: Main changes were to trim amounts west...including bumping the city of Cleveland solidly down into the 3-6" range. This is mainly due to expected dry slotting much of tonight into tomorrow, and then just periods of light to moderate snow west side for several hours tomorrow. Bumped up amounts east, as there seems to be agreement on a nice burst of synoptic snow there tonight, followed by wrap around snow showers during the day tomorrow. Beefed up snow amounts where I expect a nice lake effect band to develop across the eastern suburbs into Geauga County as well as over inland NW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Main changes were to trim amounts west...including bumping the city of Cleveland solidly down into the 3-6" range. This is mainly due to expected dry slotting much of tonight into tomorrow, and then just periods of light to moderate snow west side for several hours tomorrow. Bumped up amounts east, as there seems to be agreement on a nice burst of synoptic snow there tonight, followed by wrap around snow showers during the day tomorrow. Beefed up snow amounts where I expect a nice lake effect band to develop across the eastern suburbs into Geauga County as well as over inland NW PA. It seems that the burst of snow tonight and tomorrow morning keeps getting pared back. I think your forecast will do fine for snow belt areas. I do think 1-3" will push it for many places that don't get hit with a lake effect band. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few people in the region wake up tomorrow morning without much on the ground at all, perhaps a wind swept coating. Through 11 am tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It seems that the burst of snow tonight and tomorrow morning keeps getting pared back. I think your forecast will do fine for snow belt areas. I do think 1-3" will push it for many places that don't get hit with a lake effect band. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few people in the region wake up tomorrow morning without much on the ground at all, perhaps a wind swept coating. Through 11 am tomorrow: I do like that you can see moisture building to our SW. At this point it will be nowcasting/RUC watching. If the burst of synoptic snow busts, you're right, areas outside of the Snow Belt will certainly bust. It certainly is a concern in situations like this with a dry slot so close and counting on a weakening deform to deliver the synoptic snow behind the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think the synoptic part of this storm will be a dud. Radar returns aren't promising and the short term models hardly give more than 2" outside of extreme eastern Ohio. I'm quite surprised that the entire state of Ohio is currently under an advisory or a warning. In fact, almost the entire midwest and Ohio Valley is under some sort of advisory. I'm sure it has mostly to do with the fact there's been virtually no system snow in these parts in almost 10 months. I think one of the AFDs even mentioned that most will not see advisory criteria snow, but issued them for the travel aspect. I think here in Cleveland, lake effect (as always) will hopefully save the day. There's definitely been some hints at a primary lake effect snow band developing tomorrow afternoon. See the latest QPF totals through tomorrow night. Favored locales will surely do well and even here on the west side there'll probably be enough for 2-4", I have to agree. Unless there is rapid explosion of precip to the SW its not looking good. The NAM and GFS both had the slug running up through WPA and far eastern OH so I guess it is still possible. The CLE WRF really shows a nice band developing. The image you posted shows a classic 322 band... those never disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Aren't 850 hPa temperatures on Friday and Friday night a bit mild for +SHSN downwind of Lake Erie? I just don't have a good feeling for a big event here in Chagrin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I have to agree. Unless there is rapid explosion of precip to the SW its not looking good. The NAM and GFS both had the slug running up through WPA and far eastern OH so I guess it is still possible. The CLE WRF really shows a nice band developing. The image you posted shows a classic 322 band... those never disappoint. There's definitely been a lot of model agreement about that band. So this is through noon tomorrow, now. Quite the change from the previous hour. Still, only showing 2" max over portions of the state. But if that band develops, look out, someone will be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Looks to be a ton of rain/ snow in southern Ohio headed north. Hopefully its cold enough for all snow here by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Looks to be a ton of rain/ snow in southern Ohio headed north. Hopefully its cold enough for all snow here by that time. I think most of the precip will be snow...cold front looks like it's going to push through Cleveland metro shortly...there is also a good bit of snow in SW OH, but it appears as though the ILN radar data is missing from the end of the loop...rates look decent with this precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The wind was strong and woke me up at 3:30 a.m. Not looking forward to the trip to Public Square today, it's always so windy downtown when the wind is from the SW. I'm still trying to figure out where the NWS is getting their snow totals from for today? 3-5" today and another 3-5 tonight is the forecast for Chagrin Falls. We've had about 0.5" so far it looks like. The GFS QPF for CGF through 00Z tonight is 0.19". Not much of that will be lake effect, if any...the wind is SW and there seems to be a lot of directional sheer until this evening when the wind finally veers WNW. There is also warm air advection going on this morning too (the temperature at 850 actually rises a bit through 18Z), so it seems like all snow that will fall will be synoptic-scale. Looking upstream at western Ohio and Indiana METARs, the only place that had a visibility <1 SM was Fort Wayne. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of moderate or heavy snow upstream. As the East Coast low develops and the upper-level energy transfer takes place and the phasing occurs well east of us, it seems like 3-5" for most places is not reasonable for today. I'm not criticizing the NWS here, just learning and enjoying the WX like everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.