Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[LakeEffectOH]

Coming home from work today, it seemed like late March. I could hear geese honking and the air had a particularly balmy feel to it.

[LakeEffectOH]

Nice long-term write up from BUF. No immediate pattern change I guess.

IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3

WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

Good realistic article by Wes & Co. about the upcoming pattern change.

http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak

[NEOH]

Good realistic article by Wes & Co. about the upcoming pattern change.

http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak

Great read and write-up. Don S didn't offer much encouraging news in the main thread. Said the great lakes and ontario may be able to salvage something this winter with one major storm. I guess that is the good news.

[ukrocks]

The weather has been extremely boring in Kentucky in terms of wintry weather. I've seen snowflakes in the air four times. Only once did we got some accumulation and that was a small dusting at my house in Louisville. Murray has yet to see any type of accumulation yet. Hopefully we will get a storm soon.

[NEOH]

CLE throwing a long term bone. Awfully far way but what the heck. Need the upper low to move further NE or we'll be watching BUF get crushed.

TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY LAKE EFFECT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKING LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SNOWBELT AS

LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS LOOK HIGHLY FAVORABLE INTO FRI EVE. GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN HAVING ANOTHER SW/CLIPPER

TYPE SYSTEM DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH THUS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER SAT AND SUN SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO KEEP CHANCE FOR SHSN GOING

THROUGH SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. WILL LIKEWISE SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS THAT WAS EXPECTED ON THE

WEEKEND.

[OHweather]

CLE throwing a long term bone. Awfully far way but what the heck. Need the upper low to move further NE or we'll be watching BUF get crushed.

TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY LAKE EFFECT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKING LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SNOWBELT AS

LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS LOOK HIGHLY FAVORABLE INTO FRI EVE. GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN HAVING ANOTHER SW/CLIPPER

TYPE SYSTEM DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH THUS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER SAT AND SUN SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO KEEP CHANCE FOR SHSN GOING

THROUGH SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. WILL LIKEWISE SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS THAT WAS EXPECTED ON THE

WEEKEND.

What will happen at the end of this week is still up in the air...I think there will be a period of decent LES off of Lake Erie, but whether the flow is predominantly SW or more NWrly is still to be determined...it really could go either way.

Models today are certainly deeper with the upper trough, bringing sufficiently cold and moist air for lake effect. We will have to watch and see if this trend continues. The GFS/Euro also do show a WNW flow for a time Friday-Saturday and potentially again on Sunday.

Small changes in timing of the northern stream trough and sub-tropical jet energy have potential synoptic snow ramifications...right now the models are hinting at some accumulating synoptic snows over head or just to our NW Thursday-Friday. Models will continue to be interesting to watch over the next few days.

[Trent]

CLE throwing a long term bone. Awfully far way but what the heck. Need the upper low to move further NE or we'll be watching BUF get crushed.

TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY LAKE EFFECT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKING LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SNOWBELT AS

LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS LOOK HIGHLY FAVORABLE INTO FRI EVE. GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN HAVING ANOTHER SW/CLIPPER

TYPE SYSTEM DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH THUS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER SAT AND SUN SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO KEEP CHANCE FOR SHSN GOING

THROUGH SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. WILL LIKEWISE SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS THAT WAS EXPECTED ON THE

WEEKEND.

Yeah. The 18z GFS looks really good after Thursday. But a little too early to determine if this will be more of a BUF flow event. Looks like there'll be a lot of moisture around and not as strong of winds, which could prove to be a bit more fruitful than last.

You gotta wonder when our first synoptic snow of the season will be. This is borderline ridiculous.

[NEOH]

Yeah. The 18z GFS looks really good after Thursday. But a little too early to determine if this will be more of a BUF flow event. Looks like there'll be a lot of moisture around and not as strong of winds, which could prove to be a bit more fruitful than last.

You gotta wonder when our first synoptic snow of the season will be. This is borderline ridiculous.

Suprised to see snow still on the ground in Chagrin. All most of the snow IMBY has melted yet a few miles to the south the shady areas are still covered.

Looks like a moisture starved clipper will be our first shot and synoptic snow this winter. We'll have to hope the LES delivers on Friday for anything significant. BUF seems bullish which is good to see.

[Trent]

So the el niño winter of 97/98 was CLE's least snowiest winter of the past 5 decades, coming in with just 34" that season. I think that yearly total sets the modern era benchmark of craptacular winters. So here's to hoping CLE can eke out 2 more feet this winter.

If it weren't for that surprise 5-6" lake effect snow that hit the west side of Cleveland back in mid-December, this start to winter would have been especially brutal. I think some areas that are just west of the Airport in far western Cuyahoga County and eastern Lorain County might be sub 5" as we enter mid January as they've missed out on most of the lake effect.

I'm starting to fear that we will have a warmer than average Feb and Mar, and then once April hits, we'll get socked with a cold spell. Rain and 40's all the way through May ... the curse of the lake. I think that's what made 09/10 so nice ... a really hard 2 month stretch of cold and snow in the heart of winter, followed by a warm March and then the warmest April on record.

[LakeEffectOH]

So the el niño winter of 97/98 was CLE's least snowiest winter of the past 5 decades, coming in with just 34" that season. I think that yearly total sets the modern era benchmark of craptacular winters. So here's to hoping CLE can eke out 2 more feet this winter.

If it weren't for that surprise 5-6" lake effect snow that hit the west side of Cleveland back in mid-December, this start to winter would have been especially brutal. I think some areas that are just west of the Airport in far western Cuyahoga County and eastern Lorain County might be sub 5" as we enter mid January as they've missed out on most of the lake effect.

I'm starting to fear that we will have a warmer than average Feb and Mar, and then once April hits, we'll get socked with a cold spell. Rain and 40's all the way through May ... the curse of the lake. I think that's what made 09/10 so nice ... a really hard 2 month stretch of cold and snow in the heart of winter, followed by a warm March and then the warmest April on record.

I'm thinking worst case, we will start getting our winter (again worst case) sometime during late Feb and into March. The La Nina is slowly weakening, and SSTAs look to be increasing at the Dateline which means increased convection there and possibly a more favorable pattern (more sustained -NAO) for here. (Fingers crossed)

Yeah, I'm afraid the "better pattern" will bring some cold and snow in Feb & March, but nasty rain & 40s thru May - nice days will be sunny but chilly. Then it will suddenly warm up into the upper 80s & low 90s right after Memorial Day.

[dta1984]

This is the 0z euro from the other thread;

CLE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN 5.5 1.6 994 91 79 0.04 540 545

FRI 00Z 13-JAN 5.2 -1.1 994 93 87 0.03 533 538

FRI 06Z 13-JAN -2.3 -7.3 996 72 90 0.02 524 527

FRI 12Z 13-JAN -2.9 -7.7 996 80 100 0.04 523 526

FRI 18Z 13-JAN -2.0 -11.4 1003 72 99 0.12 527 525

SAT 00Z 14-JAN -4.0 -12.3 1010 73 97 0.11 531 524

SAT 06Z 14-JAN -4.7 -13.9 1013 75 76 0.07 532 522

SAT 12Z 14-JAN -6.4 -15.2 1017 72 33 0.02 532 519

SAT 18Z 14-JAN -4.4 -15.4 1018 63 39 0.01 532 517

SUN 00Z 15-JAN -6.1 -14.8 1019 71 41 0.01 532 517

SUN 06Z 15-JAN -6.3 -14.5 1021 72 34 0.01 533 517

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -7.9 -14.6 1024 72 42 0.01 537 518

[NEOH]

This is the 0z euro from the other thread;

CLE:

THU 18Z 12-JAN 5.5 1.6 994 91 79 0.04 540 545

FRI 00Z 13-JAN 5.2 -1.1 994 93 87 0.03 533 538

FRI 06Z 13-JAN -2.3 -7.3 996 72 90 0.02 524 527

FRI 12Z 13-JAN -2.9 -7.7 996 80 100 0.04 523 526

FRI 18Z 13-JAN -2.0 -11.4 1003 72 99 0.12 527 525

SAT 00Z 14-JAN -4.0 -12.3 1010 73 97 0.11 531 524

SAT 06Z 14-JAN -4.7 -13.9 1013 75 76 0.07 532 522

SAT 12Z 14-JAN -6.4 -15.2 1017 72 33 0.02 532 519

SAT 18Z 14-JAN -4.4 -15.4 1018 63 39 0.01 532 517

SUN 00Z 15-JAN -6.1 -14.8 1019 71 41 0.01 532 517

SUN 06Z 15-JAN -6.3 -14.5 1021 72 34 0.01 533 517

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -7.9 -14.6 1024 72 42 0.01 537 518

The 0z Euro would be the best model solution for LES. The winds turn more NW'erly as opposed to the GFS which keeps the winds primarily out of the WSW for the entire event. Friday night could be rockin.

[NEOH]

I'm thinking worst case, we will start getting our winter (again worst case) sometime during late Feb and into March. The La Nina is slowly weakening, and SSTAs look to be increasing at the Dateline which means increased convection there and possibly a more favorable pattern (more sustained -NAO) for here. (Fingers crossed)

Yeah, I'm afraid the "better pattern" will bring some cold and snow in Feb & March, but nasty rain & 40s thru May - nice days will be sunny but chilly. Then it will suddenly warm up into the upper 80s & low 90s right after Memorial Day.

I really hope that Spring is mild like we've had recently. Nothing worse than cold April and May. We will putting our house on the market and moving out to Geauga county... somewhere near your neck of the woods.

[LakeEffectOH]

I really hope that Spring is mild like we've had recently. Nothing worse than cold April and May. We will putting our house on the market and moving out to Geauga county... somewhere near your neck of the woods.

Cool, where do you think you will locate. For the best snow, Hambden out to Montville are good places. Thompson is too. I have seen it where Montville and Thompson have had nearly two feet on the ground while Chesterland had only around 6". I believe those locations actually get more than Chardon.

[NEOH]

Cool, where do you think you will locate. For the best snow, Hambden out to Montville are good places. Thompson is too. I have seen it where Montville and Thompson have had nearly two feet on the ground while Chesterland had only around 6". I believe those locations actually get more than Chardon.

Sorry for the OT... but we are looking in Chesterland, Russell, Novelty, South Russell area. As much as I would like to move out there, my wife would kill me if I took her out to Thompson or Montville. We both grew up in the "city" so this will be a change.

Nice trends in the 12z models. GFS wraps the low up over Lake Huron, nice changes in the Euro as well. Any chance we can get a monster low to stall over BUF?

[LakeEffectOH]

I'm thinking worst case, we will start getting our winter (again worst case) sometime during late Feb and into March. The La Nina is slowly weakening, and SSTAs look to be increasing at the Dateline which means increased convection there and possibly a more favorable pattern (more sustained -NAO) for here. (Fingers crossed)

Yeah, I'm afraid the "better pattern" will bring some cold and snow in Feb & March, but nasty rain & 40s thru May - nice days will be sunny but chilly. Then it will suddenly warm up into the upper 80s & low 90s right after Memorial Day.

This is an interesting but confusing time...I am more than ready for a colder and snowier time. The utter lack of snow over the CONUS (except West Texas ) at this time of year is nothing short of astounding. I have never seen the models flip-flop in the long range as I have during the past couple of weeks. It seems like most mets want to say the 2nd half of winter will be, at least normal. Some mets are getting a little overzealous and calling for a 1966/1985/2007 type flip, while a couple who post in the Gen. Wx Discussion, are strapped into he 2001 - 2002 train with one of them saying February will be a MAJOR torch.

Basically, I am not trusting, at all, any model past 168hrs, even the ensembles as they too are flip flopping. Good signs include a weakening La Nina, (somewhat warmer ENSO waters and an overall falling SOI), and a more substantial trend per a falling AO. I think, while this will not be a banner year, we will be picking up more substantial cold & snowfall for the duration of the winter...at least much better than the past couple of months.

[LakeEffectOH]

Sorry for the OT... but we are looking in Chesterland, Russell, Novelty, South Russell area. As much as I would like to move out there, my wife would kill me if I took her out to Thompson or Montville. We both grew up in the "city" so this will be a change.

Nice trends in the 12z models. GFS wraps the low up over Lake Huron, nice changes in the Euro as well. Any chance we can get a monster low to stall over BUF?

I vote Chesterland for the areas you mentioned.

Who knows, maybe blizzard of '78 part II. Instead of it being called the Cleveland Bomb, call it the Buffalo Bomb. Anyway, Chardon's snowiest winter, 1959-1960 started somewhat like this winter, but the pattern drastically changed in early Feb. 1960 and we got dumped on as the Lake, I think, was unfrozen. Chardon got like 160" that year!

[NEOH]

I vote Chesterland for the areas you mentioned.

Who knows, maybe blizzard of '78 part II. Instead of it being called the Cleveland Bomb, call it the Buffalo Bomb. Anyway, Chardon's snowiest winter, 1959-1960 started somewhat like this winter, but the pattern drastically changed in early Feb. 1960 and we got dumped on as the Lake, I think, was unfrozen. Chardon got like 160" that year!

I'd take a solid 6-12" snowfall at this point... but if monster blows up I wouldn't complain.

Still plenty of time to pick up our share of snow... but the window is closing and it will take one heck of a turnaround. The one good takeaway from the recent warmth is that the lake is wide open for business.

Meh... 12z runs were not as good as I originally thought. The winds really take their time coming around to a favorable direction. Bump the low a little to the east and the set-up would be much more favorable.

[hannie]

The weather has been extremely boring in Kentucky in terms of wintry weather. I've seen snowflakes in the air four times. Only once did we got some accumulation and that was a small dusting at my house in Louisville. Murray has yet to see any type of accumulation yet. Hopefully we will get a storm soon.

I agree...it's been crazy boring in Ky...although great running weather!!!

[OHweather]

Models continuing to trend deeper with the upper trough Thursday-Friday, meaning we may see more synoptic snows Friday and less dry-slotting, regardless of what the lake effect does. The 0z NAM is the farthest south with the closed 500mb low I've seen out of modeling (thus far), and takes the closed 500mb low over northern Ohio Friday morning.

I think between some synoptic snow and winds eventually turning more WNW Friday night that 6" of snow is becoming quite likely over the primary Snow Belt with widespread light accumulations looking quite possible outside of the Snow Belt Thursday night into Saturday.

[NEOH]

Models continuing to trend deeper with the upper trough Thursday-Friday, meaning we may see more synoptic snows Friday and less dry-slotting, regardless of what the lake effect does. The 0z NAM is the farthest south with the closed 500mb low I've seen out of modeling (thus far), and takes the closed 500mb low over northern Ohio Friday morning.

I think between some synoptic snow and winds eventually turning more WNW Friday night that 6" of snow is becoming quite likely over the primary Snow Belt with widespread light accumulations looking quite possible outside of the Snow Belt Thursday night into Saturday.

Models are looking much better. Need the second low that pops over WNY to intensify quickly.... and stall over Rochester

[Trent]

Looks like the Euro spits out 0.53" for CLE as snow from tomorrow night through Sunday. A lot of that is likely lake enhancement / effect, But still encouraging!

Im guessing Friday morning's commute will be the worst with more transient les squalls the rest of the weekend.

[dta1984]

Nice ! With ratios helping out and less wind this time , this could be a healthy event for us !

[NEOH]

Looks like the Euro spits out 0.53" for CLE as snow from tomorrow night through Sunday. A lot of that is likely lake enhancement / effect, But still encouraging!

Im guessing Friday morning's commute will be the worst with more transient les squalls the rest of the weekend.

Good to see the euro on board with some snow. I'm having a hard time figuring this whole mess out... very messy set-up. I have no idea on wind direction. The winds do eventually come around but how quickly is the question. We really need to low in a more eastern position to shift the winds.

if nothing else, it will be fun to watch this event unfold. Probably some surprises in store as always.

[NEOH]

18z NAM was a step in the right direction. Nice increase in precip across eastern OH.

While it's not a monster low over BUF... a 988 low over Lake Ontario will work. Be interesting to see if the GFS follows suit.

[ArmyGreens]

Well I think I am feeling a little better about this...hoping for our first "cover the grass" snowfall! Can't wait to feel that arctic wind!

[Trent]

18z NAM was a step in the right direction. Nice increase in precip across eastern OH.

While it's not a monster low over BUF... a 988 low over Lake Ontario will work. Be interesting to see if the GFS follows suit.

The 18z NAM run was great for Ohio. The clown maps will surely be 10"+ for most of NE Ohio.

Still a lot of bumps to work out, but everything has been in the right direction.

[NEOH]

The 18z NAM run was great for Ohio. The clown maps will surely be 10"+ for most of NE Ohio.

Still a lot of bumps to work out, but everything has been in the right direction.

That was the best run yet of all the models. It's the NAM so I'll curb my enthusiasm for now.

As I mentioned before, this is a messy set-up. Most likely surprises in store for everyone. Things are trending better for OH that's for sure. just need the vort to dig a little further south.

[OHweather]

January 12-14 synoptic snow + lake enhanced snow event

A complex situation is currently evolving right now across much of the central and eastern US—with a potent shortwave diving southeast through the upper Plains and a piece of moist subtropical jet energy riding up through the western Appellations and Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure is associated with the subtropical jet energy over southwestern Ohio.

A close examination of SPC mesoanalyisis and 0z and 1z RUC initializations suggest that 12z models and 18z models were a little bit less amplified at 0z with the shortwave diving into the Plains than reality, suggesting the trough may dig a little bit more than the 12z and 18z models indicated.

As the shortwave over the Plains digs and takes on a negative tilt tonight, the low with the subtropical jet energy will drift essentially due north. This will continue through the day Thursday.

As the trough closes off and moves east, it will begin taking the surface low with it Thursday night into Friday.

Precip during the day Thursday will remain rain across much of northern OH, as we will remain in the warm sector of the deepening low. However, Thursday evening the arctic cold front associated with the storm will move through northern OH. Temperatures surface and aloft will rapidly fall. With the strong cold air advection immediately behind the front there may be a burst of rain changing to snow, aided by strong mid level PVA:

This initial burst may drop up to an inch of snow, especially east of a Canton to Mentor line. I expect a dry slot to move in behind this initial burst of snow for the late evening hours into very early Friday morning, as the mid level low tracks overhead or just to our north:

As the mid level low pulls east, synoptic moisture will be pulled back over northern OH Friday morning. In addition, a nice thermal trough just north of the region will aid in creating low to mid level frontogenesis over northern OH, which will aid in creating low to mid level lift Friday morning into Friday afternoon:

This low to mid level lift, combined with deep synoptic moisture will likely result in several hours of light to occasionally moderate snow across much of northern OH on Friday. Combined with wind gusts in excess of 30MPH and temps in the 20s, this snow will make things look quite wintry across the whole area Friday.

Snowfall rates could become heavy for a period Friday morning as low level lift combined with an extremely deep dendrite growth zone move across northern Ohio. This forecast Skew-T for near CLE at 12z Friday off the 0z NAM shows a dendrite growth zone of about 300mb deep!

As shown two images up, the best temperature gradient and lift will be located around 850mb, which is right in the middle of the expected dendrite growth zone Friday morning. This could yield a period of high ratio dendrites that accumulate quickly. The skew-T also shows steep (almost convective) synoptic low level lapse rates and the potential to mix down 40-45kts of wind. This supports the idea of windy conditions corresponding with light to moderate snow on Friday.

The best low level lift will begin to pull east late Friday as the low pressure continues to pull away. This should cause a gradual lightening of the synoptic snow Friday late afternoon and evening. Low level lapse rates will also weaken somewhat as the sun sets and surface temps cool a few degrees.

In general, I think most areas will see an initial half inch or so of snow immediately behind the arctic front Thursday evening, with locally up to an inch for extreme eastern OH into PA. Snows will begin wrapping back in from the NW early Friday morning. In general I expect 1-2” of snow by 7am Friday east of I-71 and 2-3” of snow west. Friday a general light to moderate snow will continue over much of the area, with a potential period of heavier rates moving through from west to east during the morning and early afternoon. Snow will begin tapering off from the southwest Friday afternoon. In general I expect an additional 2-3” area wide Friday with locally more. With a WSW flow, the lakeshore from Mentor points NE may locally see 4 or 5” on Friday.

Friday night a wind shift will move across Lake Erie into northern Ohio, which will shift any lake enhancement inland.

The lake effect parameters over Lake Erie at 0z Saturday (per the 0z NAM) are OK. Winds show some shear between the surface and 700mb (although they do align better after the surface trough moves south and the lower levels turn more WNW), and inversions are only at around 800mb (slightly higher when you account for lake temperatures of 2-4C on our side of the lake). These are marginal. However, the boundary layer is essentially saturated and the mid levels will remain moist through much of Friday night. This, combined with a still very deep dendrite growth zone and a clear convergence zone should compensate enough to see a band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow develop Friday evening that slowly sags south with the wind shift:

The NAM/Euro currently agree on bringing this convergence as far south as Lorain/northern Medina/Summit/Portage counties early Saturday morning before ridging tries to build in and pushes the snow back to the northeast by noon Saturday. Given signs are pointing to a potentially transient snow band but decent rates, will go with another 2-5” Friday night due to lake effect from eastern Cuyahoga county points E-NE, with 1-3” for Lorain and northern Medina/Summit/Portage counties. There may be some additional light accumulations Saturday in the primary Snow Belt as convergence shifts back to the northeast and the boundary layer remains moist.

All in all, expect a general 3-6” across much of northern Ohio. Lower ends of those amounts may be realized over central portions of the area as they will likely see the longest dry slot Thursday night and not see any lake enhancement. Northwest OH will see synoptic snow wrap in faster than everyone else and may see the higher end of those totals. Eastern portions of the area stand the best shot at seeing accumulation immediately behind the arctic front and the Snow Belt will see potentially several inches of Lake Enhancement. Given lake enhancement, 6-12” seems to be a good estimate from eastern Cuyahoga County east into the primary Snow Belt.

It should be noted that this will be a long duration event (36 hours give or take) and that these snow totals will be very spread out. This may limit the impact somewhat. However, if heavier bursts of snow can be seen with the synoptic snow early on and then due to Lake Enhancement Friday evening through early Saturday, roads can definitely become snowy. Blowing and drifting snow will be an issue, which may compensate for the generally light nature of the event (save the Snow Belt which will see moderate amounts given the long duration) and make roads snowy/slick.

All in all, I think CLE goes with a widespread advisory for borderline criteria snowfall combined with the potential for blowing/drifting snow. They will likely go with a warning for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula counties into NW PA…Cuyahoga County will be on the fence IMO…

Here is a map to go along with my rambling (expected snow through 7pm Saturday):

[NEOH]

January 12-14 synoptic snow + lake enhanced snow event

A complex situation is currently evolving right now across much of the central and eastern US—with a potent shortwave diving southeast through the upper Plains and a piece of moist subtropical jet energy riding up through the western Appellations and Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure is associated with the subtropical jet energy over southwestern Ohio.

A close examination of SPC mesoanalyisis and 0z and 1z RUC initializations suggest that 12z models and 18z models were a little bit less amplified at 0z with the shortwave diving into the Plains than reality, suggesting the trough may dig a little bit more than the 12z and 18z models indicated.

As the shortwave over the Plains digs and takes on a negative tilt tonight, the low with the subtropical jet energy will drift essentially due north. This will continue through the day Thursday.

As the trough closes off and moves east, it will begin taking the surface low with it Thursday night into Friday.

Precip during the day Thursday will remain rain across much of northern OH, as we will remain in the warm sector of the deepening low. However, Thursday evening the arctic cold front associated with the storm will move through northern OH. Temperatures surface and aloft will rapidly fall. With the strong cold air advection immediately behind the front there may be a burst of rain changing to snow, aided by strong mid level PVA:

This initial burst may drop up to an inch of snow, especially east of a Canton to Mentor line. I expect a dry slot to move in behind this initial burst of snow for the late evening hours into very early Friday morning, as the mid level low tracks overhead or just to our north:

As the mid level low pulls east, synoptic moisture will be pulled back over northern OH Friday morning. In addition, a nice thermal trough just north of the region will aid in creating low to mid level frontogenesis over northern OH, which will aid in creating low to mid level lift Friday morning into Friday afternoon:

This low to mid level lift, combined with deep synoptic moisture will likely result in several hours of light to occasionally moderate snow across much of northern OH on Friday. Combined with wind gusts in excess of 30MPH and temps in the 20s, this snow will make things look quite wintry across the whole area Friday.

Snowfall rates could become heavy for a period Friday morning as low level lift combined with an extremely deep dendrite growth zone move across northern Ohio. This forecast Skew-T for near CLE at 12z Friday off the 0z NAM shows a dendrite growth zone of about 300mb deep!

As shown two images up, the best temperature gradient and lift will be located around 850mb, which is right in the middle of the expected dendrite growth zone Friday morning. This could yield a period of high ratio dendrites that accumulate quickly. The skew-T also shows steep (almost convective) synoptic low level lapse rates and the potential to mix down 40-45kts of wind. This supports the idea of windy conditions corresponding with light to moderate snow on Friday.

The best low level lift will begin to pull east late Friday as the low pressure continues to pull away. This should cause a gradual lightening of the synoptic snow Friday late afternoon and evening. Low level lapse rates will also weaken somewhat as the sun sets and surface temps cool a few degrees.

In general, I think most areas will see an initial half inch or so of snow immediately behind the arctic front Thursday evening, with locally up to an inch for extreme eastern OH into PA. Snows will begin wrapping back in from the NW early Friday morning. In general I expect 1-2” of snow by 7am Friday east of I-71 and 2-3” of snow west. Friday a general light to moderate snow will continue over much of the area, with a potential period of heavier rates moving through from west to east during the morning and early afternoon. Snow will begin tapering off from the southwest Friday afternoon. In general I expect an additional 2-3” area wide Friday with locally more. With a WSW flow, the lakeshore from Mentor points NE may locally see 4 or 5” on Friday.

Friday night a wind shift will move across Lake Erie into northern Ohio, which will shift any lake enhancement inland.

The lake effect parameters over Lake Erie at 0z Saturday (per the 0z NAM) are OK. Winds show some shear between the surface and 700mb (although they do align better after the surface trough moves south and the lower levels turn more WNW), and inversions are only at around 800mb (slightly higher when you account for lake temperatures of 2-4C on our side of the lake). These are marginal. However, the boundary layer is essentially saturated and the mid levels will remain moist through much of Friday night. This, combined with a still very deep dendrite growth zone and a clear convergence zone should compensate enough to see a band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow develop Friday evening that slowly sags south with the wind shift:

The NAM/Euro currently agree on bringing this convergence as far south as Lorain/northern Medina/Summit/Portage counties early Saturday morning before ridging tries to build in and pushes the snow back to the northeast by noon Saturday. Given signs are pointing to a potentially transient snow band but decent rates, will go with another 2-5” Friday night due to lake effect from eastern Cuyahoga county points E-NE, with 1-3” for Lorain and northern Medina/Summit/Portage counties. There may be some additional light accumulations Saturday in the primary Snow Belt as convergence shifts back to the northeast and the boundary layer remains moist.

All in all, expect a general 3-6” across much of northern Ohio. Lower ends of those amounts may be realized over central portions of the area as they will likely see the longest dry slot Thursday night and not see any lake enhancement. Northwest OH will see synoptic snow wrap in faster than everyone else and may see the higher end of those totals. Eastern portions of the area stand the best shot at seeing accumulation immediately behind the arctic front and the Snow Belt will see potentially several inches of Lake Enhancement. Given lake enhancement, 6-12” seems to be a good estimate from eastern Cuyahoga County east into the primary Snow Belt.

It should be noted that this will be a long duration event (36 hours give or take) and that these snow totals will be very spread out. This may limit the impact somewhat. However, if heavier bursts of snow can be seen with the synoptic snow early on and then due to Lake Enhancement Friday evening through early Saturday, roads can definitely become snowy. Blowing and drifting snow will be an issue, which may compensate for the generally light nature of the event (save the Snow Belt which will see moderate amounts given the long duration) and make roads snowy/slick.

All in all, I think CLE goes with a widespread advisory for borderline criteria snowfall combined with the potential for blowing/drifting snow. They will likely go with a warning for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula counties into NW PA…Cuyahoga County will be on the fence IMO…

Here is a map to go along with my rambling (expected snow through 7pm Saturday):

Nice forecast as usual. Good call with snowfall amounts.

Couple of wild cards that could affect snowfall... the models show a slug of precip wrapping into the strengthening low from the south, but it looks like the precip will head east of here. If this moves more to the west we could see more synoptic snow. Also, I don't see the winds coming around to a favorable direction for lake enhanced snow. The winds do veer but it would be pure LES at that point. I could certainly be wrong about all of this.

Anyway, let's hope your snowfall map verifies. Winter arrives, again, tomorrow.