LakeEffectOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Low visibilities here in Solon for the last 4 hours. I think the Solon area will be one of the winners before this event is over. The reason, IMHO, this event has so underperformed is because the upper level trough was so sharp and narrow. As the trough progressed, winds shifted rapidly and the trough's relative depth to narrow width allowed the LES bands to be pushed almost to Canton as of 11pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 About 2" new fell in downtown Cleveland so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Cle updated discussion says they think the two bands of le will merge then move back northeast. Might be a good finish afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Cle updated discussion says they think the two bands of le will merge then move back northeast. Might be a good finish afterall. You can see the huron band heading west... at the same time ridging should push the band over CLE NE as the winds back. Sun is out now in Chagrin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You can see the huron band heading west... at the same time ridging should push the band over CLE NE as the winds back. Sun is out now in Chagrin. ...Snow has pretty much stopped here in Solon. Can see blue sky. I don't think this event is quite over though. Could see another one to locally three inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ...Snow has pretty much stopped here in Solon. Can see blue sky. I don't think this event is quite over though. Could see another one to locally three inches out of this. This reminded me that sometimes the best snows come at the end of the event. I needed the reminder. Looking out west ridging is moving in pretty quickly. There should still be a window for decent snows though if the bands can come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's a shame that the snows died out last night and then refired later in the morning. Had we kept the bands going all along, I think we would have hit expected totals. Still a nice treat this morning. Hopkins probably got an inch, so the yearly deficit was hardly touched the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 1.8" between 8pm and 8am, 2.0" additional this morning (mainly between 1030 and 1230). That pushes the now 2.5 day storm total to 8.3" in Reminderville. Was driving around this morning, the snow was fast and furious, Visibility was at times as low as 200 feet (not a good feeling when you see that "x road is 500 feet ahead" but don't see the road for another 10 seconds). It is still gusty out, especially near the edges of the snow band. The Lake Huron band is inching closer to the Cleveland Metro. Rates look moderate beneath it. The snow band that brought the goods to much of the Cleveland and now Akron metro appears as though it will slip a few miles farther SW then hold steady. If it can maintain itself until the ridge begins to bring winds around to more of a westerly direction, the idea of merging snow bands may work out. Rates would be intense if that happened. This event is definitely ending with a relative bang. Still not an event for the record books by any means, and amounts are something we come to expect out of lake effect at least once or twice each winter, but those 200' visibilities this morning finally made it feel like winter was here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... I NEGLECTED TO MENTION A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA IN MY LAST DISCUSSION. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ON A LINE FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO MAHONING COUNTY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I ANTICIPATE THE FRONT WILL STALL SHORTLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST...I ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE SNOW ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FORCE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTH NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE EXISTING BANDS. THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE BAND COULD INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND THEN SHIFT UP THE LAKE SHORE. THE BANDS ARE INTENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS GOING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nice , I hope that does happen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nice , I hope that does happen!! Ya, same here. The band has dropped about half an inch since 3pm here, but I was fringed most of the time. Under the band visibilities are under a half mile. The flakes are relatively small however. I think someone sees a local couple inches out of this band before 10pm. I think after 7pm things start weakening/shifting east and by 10pm the accumulating snow is done everywhere except perhaps Ashtabula county. But hey, 2" would push me over 10" which would meet or slightly exceed my personal expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here are two other pics ( I posted the wall of white coming onshore in the other thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Awesome pics Trent! The one in the other thread where the squall is coming in over the lake is my fav! Good perspective for those of us who don't get to see them like that! Looks like the les is done with, but it was a decent event. Could have been a huge event if the heavier bands had stayed in one area long enough. Hopefully we have another couple good les events this year!.....and of course several spread the wealth synoptic events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Awesome pics Trent! The one in the other thread where the squall is coming in over the lake is my fav! Good perspective for those of us who don't get to see them like that! Looks like the les is done with, but it was a decent event. Could have been a huge event if the heavier bands had stayed in one area long enough. Hopefully we have another couple good les events this year!.....and of course several spread the wealth synoptic events! Yup. The white wall pic was pretty epic looking. Will take one last measurment at 8pm (6 hr intervals) but looks like I will top out around 9"...for a 3 day total it is mediocre, but definitely saw a few periods of very heavy snow. The transient nature of the bands allowed essentially the whole area, including the west and south sides to see at least a couple periods of heavier snow. The lake is still not in any danger of freezing, and with temperatures progged to get into the mid 40s by the end of the week we should be primed for the next arctic surge, whenever it is. Looking ahead, I think we will see a potentially very cold/snowy period starting the last ten-14 days of January into February. We are seeing continued signs of a high latitude block popping near Alaska/northern Asia about 10 days out...the Euro/ensembles are also hinting as well at the end of their runs. We would still need to work on the Atlantic, but NAO/AO forecasts are trending less positive with time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At least we are getting short tastes of winter each time the temps briefly tilt toward the cold side. Snow should be gone by Sunday for most and now we wait at least a week for something else. Deficits should be in the 15-20" range at CLE by the time the next snow hits. If you want depressing, look at BUF or ROC's departures, ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At least we are getting short tastes of winter each time the temps briefly tilt toward the cold side. Snow should be gone by Sunday for most and now we wait at least a week for something else. Deficits should be in the 15-20" range at CLE by the time the next snow hits. If you want depressing, look at BUF or ROC's departures, ouch. That has been the one good thing given the pattern we are in. The other benefit is that the lake is staying relatively warm. Looks like the warm up will be somewhat limited so there should be some snow around. I'm surprised CLE did not pick-up more snow the past 2 days. I haven't looked but I assume YNG did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Some hints at something interesting 8-10 days out from the 0z Euro: Ensemble support is not bad for being this far out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Enjoying the surprise sunshine this afternoon. Pinpoint forecast was "cloudy" earlier today, but the sun is out (first time in 6 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I looked at the NWS forecast for the next 7-days and there is no mention of any precipitation. In January? It will be amazing if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 CLE's long range disco. Guess they are going with more progressive/eastern solution LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM. THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAST MOVING AND NOT ALL THAT STRONG. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN JET STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY CLIP THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I looked at the NWS forecast for the next 7-days and there is no mention of any precipitation. In January? It will be amazing if it verifies. La niña .... Hah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 CLE's long range disco. Guess they are going with more progressive/eastern solution LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM. THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAST MOVING AND NOT ALL THAT STRONG. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN JET STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY CLIP THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. That's funny, cause I think the low is more likely to track close to on top of us or west of us than east of us. The models are obviously going to struggle with track/stregnth for a few days to come because we are dealing with a cutoff coming out of the southwest and a Pacific shortwave that will not hit North America for 4-5 more days. On the bright side, at least they gave a day 7-8 storm threat a mention in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's funny, cause I think the low is more likely to track close to on top of us or west of us than east of us. The models are obviously going to struggle with track/stregnth for a few days to come because we are dealing with a cutoff coming out of the southwest and a Pacific shortwave that will not hit North America for 4-5 more days. On the bright side, at least they gave a day 7-8 storm threat a mention in their AFD Looks like the 12z GFS and Euro are in somewhat agreement with the storm track next week. Both are lacking cold air... but good to see the Euro not sending the storm west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS and Euro are in somewhat agreement with the storm track next week. Both are lacking cold air... but good to see the Euro not sending the storm west. Ya, Euro looks like it kicked the southern stream cutoff east quickly enough between hours 144 and 168 to avoid a full phase before moving east of our region. Either way, there will likely be a nice cold blast behind the storm as we see ridging pushing quickly up into NW Canada next week and the pattern amplifying downstream (over our heads). 12z Canadian was a full out phase and shows a bomb over the central lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Ya, Euro looks like it kicked the southern stream cutoff east quickly enough between hours 144 and 168 to avoid a full phase before moving east of our region. Either way, there will likely be a nice cold blast behind the storm as we see ridging pushing quickly up into NW Canada next week and the pattern amplifying downstream (over our heads). 12z Canadian was a full out phase and shows a bomb over the central lakes. The GGEM was ridiculous. Fun to look at though. I'm going to ride seasonal trends and say the storm stays weaker and more progressive. We just haven't seen any amped up storms this year. It will be interesting to watch the models the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The GGEM was ridiculous. Fun to look at though. I'm going to ride seasonal trends and say the storm stays weaker and more progressive. We just haven't seen any amped up storms this year. It will be interesting to watch the models the next few days. That is a good point. Simply no blocking at all this year so things have been zonal/progressive overall. Even the deep trough we saw this week has swung east rather quickly. Right now, although the pattern over the western US will amplify next week there are no real signs of blocking over the Atlantic: The phasing potential on the image above is clear, and if the Pacific shortwave can amplify a little faster, or if the southern cut-off kicks east slower, we could see a big storm on the west side of the Apps or into the Lakes. We will need to see phasing before the storm moves east of us to get enough cold air in to change the precip shield over to snow. I think the GGEM is the strongest/farthest NW solution possible. If not, the storm probably deepens after it passes us as the GFS/Euro showed 12z. I think we will see some variable/interesting solutions for sure until the Pacific energy is sampled in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Snow has been a bit stubborn to melt overnight and yesterday even with sunshine, I presume low dewpoints are helping keep the snow in place. Temps surged into the lower 40s after midnight and I expect that with temps quickly climbing to 50 today, that outside of driveway and parking lot piles, it will be toast for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Snow has been a bit stubborn to melt overnight and yesterday even with sunshine, I presume low dewpoints are helping keep the snow in place. Temps surged into the lower 40s after midnight and I expect that with temps quickly climbing to 50 today, that outside of driveway and parking lot piles, it will be toast for most. It feels balmy compared to the last few days. The snow should be melted today outside of piles... I had thought it might stick around longer but obviously not. Looking at the glass half full, the mild weather will keep the lake nice and toasty for the next cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice long-term write up from BUF. No immediate pattern change I guess. IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3 WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It feels balmy compared to the last few days. The snow should be melted today outside of piles... I had thought it might stick around longer but obviously not. Looking at the glass half full, the mild weather will keep the lake nice and toasty for the next cold shot. Yep, no sign of shore ice or western basin ice. The next cold shot has a wide open lake primed for a good LES dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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