Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[Trent]

It's snowing lightly at Akron/Canton, with a light rain/snow mix at Youngstown on the backside of the Nor'easter. Very close. I doubt the synoptic snows affect greater Cleveland, although there will be some nice lift as a shortwave moves overhead today. Given the cold air aloft some grauple could fall if some showers pop up like what happened over MI yesterday.

Another fairly widespread freeze as well this morning, I suspect we are done with frost/freeze headlines till spring as was discussed yesterday.

Yeah, I even had a freeze here at the coast with a heavy frost. Appears BKL only hit 34, which is literally built on sediment fill a quarter mile from the original shoreline. So it appears most everyone has had a freeze now.

I was hoping that some of the backend snows would have made it this far west. I'm tempted to drive a bit to the east to see the snow, you'd probably only need to drive an hour before you'd see a dusting, but the light accumulations probably aren't worth it.

[OHSnow]

Yeah, I even had a freeze here at the coast with a heavy frost. Appears BKL only hit 34, which is literally built on sediment fill a quarter mile from the original shoreline. So it appears most everyone has had a freeze now.

I was hoping that some of the backend snows would have made it this far west. I'm tempted to drive a bit to the east to see the snow, you'd probably only need to drive an hour before you'd see a dusting, but the light accumulations probably aren't worth it.

Yeah, it appears pretty much all of CLE's CWA has had a freeze now, with the exception maybe of the immediate shoreline around BKL/downtown Cleveland and the Erie Islands. Also, first snowflakes of the year in the eastern parts of the CWA. Judging by temps in the mid 30s and the fact that the precipitation was very light, I'd imagine there wasn't any accumulation. But you never know with the YNG ruler. LOL.

Pittsburgh has been getting light to moderate snow for the past several hours, though, so I'd imagine they've picked up an inch or two this morning down there.

[jbcmh81]

Another top ten rainiest month at CLE. Currently we are in 5th place at 5.84", but 4th is 5.85", and 3rd is 5.88" so any passing shower will bump us up.

Some of the high res models are picking up some showers overnight Saturday. I still think places like Chardon will get some flakes out of this.

Both Dayton and Cincinnati have already had their wettest year on record. Columbus is almost 12" above normal for the year, but still several inches below the record.

[Trent]

Both Dayton and Cincinnati have already had their wettest year on record. Columbus is almost 12" above normal for the year, but still several inches below the record.

It's just been an incredibly wet year for Ohio. Cleveland broke their all time wettest year last week. Looks like it will be a 60"+ year for both CVG and CLE, absolutely incredible.

Any correlation between wet years and the following winter?

[Steve]

We here in Newark OH have been in the mid to upper 20"s the past two nights..So we have had our hard freeze..26 this morning.....I do believe if i am correct, a wet fall leads to a snowy winter..I could be wrong..Anyone with information on that would be great!!

[vespasian70]

Today we had thunder sleet for 15-20 mins. Picked up a slushy half inch or so, which promptly melted when the precip turned to all rain. The temperature dropped from the upper 40's to upper 30's in that 15 min time frame. A very odd moment when it was sleeting so hard with the lightening and thunder...hopefully a sign of things to come this winter.

[NEOH]

Classic fall weather the past few days. Mostly sunny and mild days and frosty mornings. Looks like the nice weather will continue. I'll take a mild November as long as December delivers.

[Steve]

Today we had thunder sleet for 15-20 mins. Picked up a slushy half inch or so, which promptly melted when the precip turned to all rain. The temperature dropped from the upper 40's to upper 30's in that 15 min time frame. A very odd moment when it was sleeting so hard with the lightening and thunder...hopefully a sign of things to come this winter.

We were driving towards columbus during that..Jym Ganahl said it was hail..Hail does not melt on your windshield..it was rain/snow/sleet..The road had slush on them..Weirdest thing i have ever seen..At one moment it was in the mid 40's..then as soon as it started the temp dropped about 10 degrees..Very strange..

[wxdudemike]

We were driving towards columbus during that..Jym Ganahl said it was hail..Hail does not melt on your windshield..it was rain/snow/sleet..The road had slush on them..Weirdest thing i have ever seen..At one moment it was in the mid 40's..then as soon as it started the temp dropped about 10 degrees..Very strange..

I don't know, we had some solid updrafts around here yesterday. I think it probably was soft hail considering how tall those clouds were forming. It was a case where the freezing level was very low so a small updraft (relative to a summer-time storm) would produce a lot of hail very easily. There was a report of 0.50" hail just east of Columbus.

[pondo1000]

This never gets old....Cantore at it again with Thunder Snow! LOL

[jbcmh81]

So here's my thoughts on the upcoming winter for Ohio (extrapolate for the rest of the Lakes).

I'm not well versed in the various indices, so I use a combination of factors to get my outlook. I use ENSO, PDO, etc, but I lean more towards ground conditions and finding the best matches in the historical record. I have all years 1896-2011, as well as 1886-1889, to work with. I have a set criteria, from precipitation, temps, heat, cold, etc. and compile a list of how many times years show up matching or coming close to current/recent conditions. This has generally served me pretty well, as I tended to be pretty close to where things ended up for winter, and all three have at least ended up on the right side of the forecast. So what do I see for 2011-12...

1. I don't see a front-heavy winter. Very few of the years I came up with were front-heavy winters. Not to say that December can't be decent, but the vast majority of the years had your standard January-February being the coldest/snowiest months. In fact, even March came up snowier than December in the years I'm using.

There were 32 years that came out in the first group of winters most closely matching my 14-point criteria. Out of these, 26 had their coldest month in either January or February. 23 of them also had their snowiest month in either January or February. In both cases, January was first.

2. I don't see an extremely snowy winter coming up. Out of the 32 winters, only 14 had above normal snowfall, and 5 of those were only a few inches above normal. The other 18 winters had slightly below to much below normal snowfall. The average snowfall for all 32 was 26" for Columbus, which is about 3" below normal.

3. 2nd Year Ninas don't tend to be all that great in Ohio. 6 out of 10 2nd year Ninas since 1948 have had below normal snowfall, and 6 out of 10 also had above normal temperatures.

4. I also don't see an extremely cold winter overall. I do think we see at least one month, probably January, that is 2-4 degrees below normal, but it will also likely be somewhat offset by a warm month. Most of the analogs I am using tended to have one to two cold winter months and one warm enough to push the winter average to within a few degrees of normal.

So what's the overall call?

December Temps

Cincinnati: 0 to +2.0

Cleveland: -0.5 to +1.5

Columbus: -0.5 to +1.5

January Temps

Cincinnati: -4 to -2

Cleveland: -3.5 to -1.5

Columbus: -3.5 to -1.5

February Temps

Cincinnati: -1.5 to +0.5

Cleveland: -2 to 0

Columbus: -2 to 0

Winter Average

Cincinnati: -2.8 to +0.2

Cleveland: -2 to 0

Columbus: -2 to 0

Winter Snowfall

Cincinnati: 18" to 25"

Cleveland: 59" to 66"

Columbus: 25" to 32"

So basically, I am going slightly colder than the analog years with near normal snowfall.

[OHweather]

So here's my thoughts on the upcoming winter for Ohio (extrapolate for the rest of the Lakes).

Nice post...I tend to agree with the outcome of your forecast.

Some key factors for this winter appear to be:

-Cold Pacific (both PDO and ENSO are negative), which will tend to favor cold air being centered to our west.

-Nina may weaken during the latter part of the winter.

-Both the historically weak solar cycle and what will likely be an easterly/-QBO by winter will favor periods of -AO/-NAO blocking

This all favors troughing being centered to our west, however does not support a dry or warm winter. I agree there will be a month in there somewhere where we average above normal in the temp department. Probably December as La Nina's tend to start warmer/drier around here IIRC. This month could feature a strong SE ridge with little blocking and a strong Pacific jet.

I do think given the likelihood of a -AO at some point during the winter that we will see some nice cold stretches. I also think that after December there will be a few decent storms that track to our south/east and that we should see a few decent synoptic snowfalls across the region, resulting in average to above average snowfall across the region (IMO). I think there may be a period, when blocking peaks, perhaps during January, where we see a decently long stretch of relatively dry cold/perhaps some nuisance clippers.

By month, my guistimate:

December: Will likely average warmer than normal with near normal precipitation. Will probably not be the snowiest month of the winter.

January: Could be cold. Several second year Nina analogs had very cold Januaries across the lakes/OV region. May be a nice storm proceeding any significant cold shots, will probably see near average snowfall.

February into March: La Nina may weaken, which may make it easier to see a bigger synoptic snowfall or two. Climo does not support the latter part of this winter being the coldest part of the winter.

There could be a few decent LES events in northern Ohio, my guess is we get buried once or twice when blocking develops (best guess late December or January) and we get a nice, cold westerly to northwesterly flow over the region.

[wxdudemike]

So here's my thoughts on the upcoming winter for Ohio (extrapolate for the rest of the Lakes).

If you don't mind me asking, what years are you using for 2nd year Ninas and related ground conditions?

Also does anyone know where I can find info on ground moisture dating back a while?

[buckeye]

So here's my thoughts on the upcoming winter for Ohio (extrapolate for the rest of the Lakes).

I'm not well versed in the various indices, so I use a combination of factors to get my outlook. I use ENSO, PDO, etc, but I lean more towards ground conditions and finding the best matches in the historical record. I have all years 1896-2011, as well as 1886-1889, to work with. I have a set criteria, from precipitation, temps, heat, cold, etc. and compile a list of how many times years show up matching or coming close to current/recent conditions. This has generally served me pretty well, as I tended to be pretty close to where things ended up for winter, and all three have at least ended up on the right side of the forecast. So what do I see for 2011-12...

1. I don't see a front-heavy winter. Very few of the years I came up with were front-heavy winters. Not to say that December can't be decent, but the vast majority of the years had your standard January-February being the coldest/snowiest months. In fact, even March came up snowier than December in the years I'm using.

There were 32 years that came out in the first group of winters most closely matching my 14-point criteria. Out of these, 26 had their coldest month in either January or February. 23 of them also had their snowiest month in either January or February. In both cases, January was first.

2. I don't see an extremely snowy winter coming up. Out of the 32 winters, only 14 had above normal snowfall, and 5 of those were only a few inches above normal. The other 18 winters had slightly below to much below normal snowfall. The average snowfall for all 32 was 26" for Columbus, which is about 3" below normal.

3. 2nd Year Ninas don't tend to be all that great in Ohio. 6 out of 10 2nd year Ninas since 1948 have had below normal snowfall, and 6 out of 10 also had above normal temperatures.

4. I also don't see an extremely cold winter overall. I do think we see at least one month, probably January, that is 2-4 degrees below normal, but it will also likely be somewhat offset by a warm month. Most of the analogs I am using tended to have one to two cold winter months and one warm enough to push the winter average to within a few degrees of normal.

So what's the overall call?

December Temps

Cincinnati: 0 to +2.0

Cleveland: -0.5 to +1.5

Columbus: -0.5 to +1.5

January Temps

Cincinnati: -4 to -2

Cleveland: -3.5 to -1.5

Columbus: -3.5 to -1.5

February Temps

Cincinnati: -1.5 to +0.5

Cleveland: -2 to 0

Columbus: -2 to 0

Winter Average

Cincinnati: -2.8 to +0.2

Cleveland: -2 to 0

Columbus: -2 to 0

Winter Snowfall

Cincinnati: 18" to 25"

Cleveland: 59" to 66"

Columbus: 25" to 32"

So basically, I am going slightly colder than the analog years with near normal snowfall.

Nice work Jbcmh, you tend to do pretty well with your winter forecasts.

I'm much more picky about my snow and cold then I was years ago. Years ago I couldn't get enough, now i root more for holiday snow, and the most brutal part of winter being in january. If it all ended Feb 1st, I wouldn't shed a tear. Just watch out for the last week in January into early Feb....I'm heading to Hawaii!!!!

Btw, we need to tag team Ganahl on twitter this winter

[jbcmh81]

If you don't mind me asking, what years are you using for 2nd year Ninas and related ground conditions?

Also does anyone know where I can find info on ground moisture dating back a while?

I didn't just use 2nd year Ninas for analogs. There were actually 32 years in the makeup of the outlook, but 4 were most prominent. Those were 2008-09, 1999-00, 1961-62, and 1959-60.

[KokomoWX]

Nice work Jbcmh, you tend to do pretty well with your winter forecasts.

I'm much more picky about my snow and cold then I was years ago. Years ago I couldn't get enough, now i root more for holiday snow, and the most brutal part of winter being in january. If it all ended Feb 1st, I wouldn't shed a tear. Just watch out for the last week in January into early Feb....I'm heading to Hawaii!!!!

Btw, we need to tag team Ganahl on twitter this winter

Leaving in the middle of winter for a warmer climate is almost treasonous.

[LizardMafia]

Leaving in the middle of winter for a warmer climate is almost treasonous.

Well, if anything at least we know when to definitely expect snow in the OH valley area for sure..

[jbcmh81]

buckeye,buckeye,buckeye. You do know we are having a triple phaser the last week in January? It would look pretty foolish to try and schedule a flight back to Ohio so yo can "enjoy" the event after just landing in Hawaii. Enjoy watching it on tv lol.

Oh yeah, I agree. Snow is good for December and January, but gets old by February and its overly strong sun. That has been the main problem with weather lately. To much snow late and not enough early.

December has had above normal snowfall 3 out of the last 4 winters in Columbus.

[CoraopolisWx]

Not here. 2008-10 were all below average to average.

Where's here ?

You should add your location to your avatar/info area.

[IWXwx]

Where's here ?

You should add your location to your avatar/info area.

I think he's in Lima, but I'm not sure.

[NEOH]

CLE NWS included the following in their annual snow observer email. Weenie raising material for sure.

WINTER 2011-'12. La Nina is back. and is expected to continue for much of the winter. La Nina often brings cold and wet weather to the Great Lakes. We can expect an active storm track and frequent outbreaks of cold weather, similar to last year. This may be especially true for the first half of the winter.

Some forecasts for the upcoming winter speculate that the winter weather will be "brutal". A La Nina winter pattern is not always "brutal" for the Lake Erie area. Some of the wet weather systems will pass off to our west and we will be on the "warm" side of the system (mostly rain not snow). Some will pass to our south (and miss us altogether). The La Nina pattern can be trumped by other short term patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. These two patterns often bring our really cold weather outbreaks.

All that being said, the pattern we have been in for about the last year has brought plenty of stormy weather and more of the same can be expected. Large and deepening low pressure systems are likely and each one could bring the potential for a big snow. That is the wild card this winter - that we probably have the potential for more snow storms than normal. Just one or two big snow storms on top of our typical winter weather and suddenly the winter seems a lot tougher (or maybe it is just me getting older).

[Trent]

I saw that in the email as well. But of course, LES can make or break a season here. Take away the early December LES event(s) last year, and the winter was nothing stellar.

This winter is shaping up to be pretty typical though. In the end it'll be that one storm that either performed or dodged us that will tilt the scales slightly above or slightly below.

[Trent]

Today is the 11th day at CLE without measurable precipitation. This is the longest streak of days this year without measurable precipitation. After months and months of downpours it sure feels odd to have a week+ of dry weather. Hopefully this isn't a pattern change for the upcoming winter.

[NEOH]

Today is the 11th day at CLE without measurable precipitation. This is the longest streak of days this year without measurable precipitation. After months and months of downpours it sure feels odd to have a week+ of dry weather. Hopefully this isn't a pattern change for the upcoming winter.

It has been a welcome dry stretch. The weather this past weekend could not have been any better. I'll take a warm and dry first half of November to keep the lake temps from crashing, and to let the cold build up north. I'm sure we will flip back to a wetter pattern in the coming weeks.

[dta1984]

Looks like a mention of snow for Thurs night, any opinions on how this might pan out? Seems they mention thunder......

"FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INCREASED THE POPS SOME BUT WITH THE LAKE AND 850

MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OVER 15C AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...

LAKE EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

THE LAKE AND 500 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE JUST OVER

40C...THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAY HAVE TO ADD THUNDER WITH LATER

FORECAST PACKAGES. RIDGING IS TRYING TO HAPPEN AT TIMES THURSDAY

INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGEABLE.

THIS EVENT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL."

[OHweather]

The last few runs of the GFS and Euro are the most provocative runs of the season thus far for potential snowfall. Both models have agreed fairly well on an interesting scenario Thursday night 0z and now 12z.

Both models show a shortwave becoming negatively tilted overhead Thursday night with low-mid level moisture in place and cold enough air for lake effect…with 850mb temps of -6 to -8 on both models by Thursday overnight. Both models gradually bring the flow from W to NW overtime from Thursday evening to Friday morning, which perhaps favors a convergence band along the lake shore slowly shifting inland.

Here are GFS forecast skew-t’s off the 12z run for near Cleveland…first for 0z Friday, second for 12z…

The inversion slowly falls to around 750mb/8-9k ft overnight per the GFS…however the model shows instability and moisture into the snow growth zone all night and shows a fairly well aligned flow of under 30 knots. The flow will also be westerly enough all night to favor one or two convergence bands along the western lake shore that gradually shift south overnight as opposed to a spraying of snow showers that aren’t anything interesting until moving well inland.

The 0z and 12z Euro were very similar to the GFS…if current trends continue it looks like accumulating snow may occur in the higher elevations of the primary Snow Belt…and potentially into the higher elevations of Cuyahoga, northern Summit and northern Medina counties if winds shift more NWrly fast enough. The boundary layer will probably be a little warm as is often the case with the first event of the season, however if current trends hold just above the ground will easily be cold enough for snow, so it will not take much elevation, perhaps 800-1000 feet, to see good accumulations if the general scenario shown occurs.

Right now CLE’s forecast of “scattered rain and snow showers” is reasonable as we are still a few days out, however I believe eventually 1-3” will be likely in the higher elevations of the Snow Belt if not more. We may end up seeing the first lake effect snow advisories of the year in the primary Snow Belt if the models from today hold. We’ll see…

[NEOH]

The last few runs of the GFS and Euro are the most provocative runs of the season thus far for potential snowfall. Both models have agreed fairly well on an interesting scenario Thursday night 0z and now 12z.

Both models show a shortwave becoming negatively tilted overhead Thursday night with low-mid level moisture in place and cold enough air for lake effect…with 850mb temps of -6 to -8 on both models by Thursday overnight. Both models gradually bring the flow from W to NW overtime from Thursday evening to Friday morning, which perhaps favors a convergence band along the lake shore slowly shifting inland.

Here are GFS forecast skew-t’s off the 12z run for near Cleveland…first for 0z Friday, second for 12z…

The inversion slowly falls to around 750mb/8-9k ft overnight per the GFS…however the model shows instability and moisture into the snow growth zone all night and shows a fairly well aligned flow of under 30 knots. The flow will also be westerly enough all night to favor one or two convergence bands along the western lake shore that gradually shift south overnight as opposed to a spraying of snow showers that aren’t anything interesting until moving well inland.

The 0z and 12z Euro were very similar to the GFS…if current trends continue it looks like accumulating snow may occur in the higher elevations of the primary Snow Belt…and potentially into the higher elevations of Cuyahoga, northern Summit and northern Medina counties if winds shift more NWrly fast enough. The boundary layer will probably be a little warm as is often the case with the first event of the season, however if current trends hold just above the ground will easily be cold enough for snow, so it will not take much elevation, perhaps 800-1000 feet, to see good accumulations if the general scenario shown occurs.

Right now CLE’s forecast of “scattered rain and snow showers” is reasonable as we are still a few days out, however I believe eventually 1-3” will be likely in the higher elevations of the Snow Belt if not more. We may end up seeing the first lake effect snow advisories of the year in the primary Snow Belt if the models from today hold. We’ll see…

Definitely looks like our best shot for LES so far this season. The window will be brief, but the primary belt could see a quick burst Thursday night and Friday morning. BUF doesn't seem all that excited about it so I'm cautiously optimistic. At the very least some areas will see a coating under the heavier bands.

[OHweather]

Definitely looks like our best shot for LES so far this season. The window will be brief, but the primary belt could see a quick burst Thursday night and Friday morning. BUF doesn't seem all that excited about it so I'm cautiously optimistic. At the very least some areas will see a coating under the heavier bands.

CLE's AM AFD (posted above) was definitely suggestive. The afternoon AFD still mentions thunder over the lake. It's strange to see CLE being more bullish than BUF.

[Trent]

CLE's AM AFD (posted above) was definitely suggestive. The afternoon AFD still mentions thunder over the lake. It's strange to see CLE being more bullish than BUF.

Yeah. What's really odd is how much the AFD has been mentioning the upcoming "rain event" for tonight through Thursday morning. This is going to be for the most part a non event. The models have consistently shown between nothing and a tenth of an inch of rain for the area yet likely pops are in the forecast and long discussions about the rain prospects continue. They must be bored over at CLE with the lack of "weather" the past two weeks. I wish they gave that much insight in the AFD when a major winter storm is only a day or two away.

[OHweather]

Yeah. What's really odd is how much the AFD has been mentioning the upcoming "rain event" for tonight through Thursday morning. This is going to be for the most part a non event. The models have consistently shown between nothing and a tenth of an inch of rain for the area yet likely pops are in the forecast and long discussions about the rain prospects continue. They must be bored over at CLE with the lack of "weather" the past two weeks. I wish they gave that much insight in the AFD when a major winter storm is only a day or two away.

I'm sure when a major event is coming they have other responsibilities that perhaps take away from the AFD, although it can be annoying.