NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It feels like we were in the same situation last winter and the winter before WRT a lack of synoptic snowfall heading into January. As an interesting sidenote, as of 3pm Findlay's hourly obs are just as impressive as if not more impressive than CLE's: http://www.weather.g...story/KFDY.html http://www.weather.g...story/KCLE.html I'm not sure. There is definitely one more concentraited area of heavy snow stretching from northern Erie County (Ohio) through the west and south side of the metro area into Medina/Summit/Portage counties (finally). This is the remnants of the convergence that did produce a solid heavy band for a few hours this morning across the east side into the true Snow Belt and that produced a decent band almost all night along the eastern lakeshore. So potentially the shifting winds is prohibiting bands from setting up and sitting in one area for long periods of time. There is also a solid band now extended into Lake and Ashtabula Counties, but my guess is it will be somewhat transient in nature: That has probably been the biggest prohibiting factor. I'm at about 4.5" currently so no complaints here. Still a long way to go. I think the scattered/broken bands will come together this evening. There's a ton of moisture out there so dry air is no worry. It's been an odd LES event so far. Not sure what is affecting the band structure.I think just about everyone will see some intense snow this evening with the trough party... I have no idea what happens after the trough passes though. Hopefully everyone seems some snow. Feels like winter out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Multiple runs of the WRF have been consistent with a lake effect plume through central Cuyahoga County into Summit/Portage. I take these models as a guide for what could happen, not exactly where and how much. With that said, if this one lone band does take shape, whoever gets under it will do extremely well for this event. 0.4" of QPF at night with ratios is easily 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 By 10 pm this band really develops. That would be 2"+ per hour rates. I think if this band doesn't develop at least somewhere over the area by 9 pm, tonight will probably be a dud for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I was just outside shoveling the driveway a little, it was coming down very hard. No sooner had I shoveled than the driveway turned white again. Hopefully it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Still not sure why the bands are so irregular. Have had on-and-off moderate precipitation all day, a mix of snow showers and snow pellets here in Chagrin Falls. To me, this sounding/cross section from the RUC at 22Z near CGF indicates a almost perfect atmosphere for good lake effect. Haven't been able to see any clues in the AFDs about what is going on. Every once in a while I've seen blue sky today in Chagrin. Looking at the clouds they don't appear very thick, like there is a lack of vertical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 By 10 pm this band really develops. That would be 2"+ per hour rates. I think if this band doesn't develop at least somewhere over the area by 9 pm, tonight will probably be a dud for most. The band is out there... just east of what the WRF shows. Winds are coming around more northerly so that might be quite accurate as the band will orient itself on the NW'erly flow. Looks like a lake St. Clair connection! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Still not sure why the bands are so irregular. Have had on-and-off moderate precipitation all day, a mix of snow showers and snow pellets here in Chagrin Falls. To me, this sounding/cross section from the RUC at 22Z near CGF indicates a almost perfect atmosphere for good lake effect. Haven't been able to see any clues in the AFDs about what is going on. Every once in a while I've seen blue sky today in Chagrin. Looking at the clouds they don't appear very thick, like there is a lack of vertical development. Good question. Inversion must be lower than expected. Often these great LES set-ups under produce. Unless the radar lights up tonight we can expect the same. LES is just so unpredictable. Some area will probably get dumped on but it will likely will be an awfully thin band that produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Good question. Inversion must be lower than expected. Often these great LES set-ups under produce. Unless the radar lights up tonight we can expect the same. LES is just so unpredictable. Some area will probably get dumped on but it will likely will be an awfully thin band that produces. Who knows...this pilot report (from near Canton) shows the cloud tops around 7,500 ft. and thickness only about 4,500 ft.: CAK UA /OV BSV335010 /TM 0026 /FL075 /TP C525 /SK OVC029-TOP075 /IC NEG /RM /TA UNKN/DURD CAK ...but that is Canton. The VAD wind profile from CLE shows the inversion should be around 13,000 ft. early today (but it is descending this evening with the arctic front): 6.6" event total in Chagrin Falls as of 8 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 4.5" here in Reminderville storm total thus far...we did finally "cash in" between 3-8pm and saw a couple inches in that timeframe...I'm actually optimistic for some half decent (up to 6") amounts tonight in the favored upslope areas...with general accums of 2-4" inland/upslope areas and 1-3" lower down and closer to the water. The "WRF band" has set up and is swinging west...it is now into eastern Cuyahoga County...the band has a feed all the way up to lower MI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The band is out there... just east of what the WRF shows. Winds are coming around more northerly so that might be quite accurate as the band will orient itself on the NW'erly flow. Looks like a lake St. Clair connection! Yeah, so at least it developed, but it's razor thin. If it wobbles a bit maybe a 10-15 mile wide area will get 2-3" overnight, but if it establishes itself over one area for a good portion of the night, then somebody will get rocked. I will withhold judgment of this event until tomorrow, but as of right now it probably didn't meet most expectations. I have to laugh at the hype this storm got on local news. They were calling it the first major snow of the season ... which is odd because all the local news outlets used the same headline a few Saturdays ago when it dumped quite a bit of snow. I guess every time it snows now they will call it the first "insert another adjective for big here" snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 4.5" here in Reminderville storm total thus far...we did finally "cash in" between 3-8pm and saw a couple inches in that timeframe...I'm actually optimistic for some half decent (up to 6") amounts tonight in the favored upslope areas...with general accums of 2-4" inland and 1-3" lower down and closer to the water. The "WRF band" has set up and is swinging west...it is now into eastern Cuyahoga County...the band has a feed all the way up to lower MI: I hope somebody cashes in tonight. The totals that have been achieved thus far are moderate, but when you factor in that most of the snow has come in spurts for 45 minutes, sun comes, then clouds up, another burst for 30 minutes, wash, rinse, repeat, for about 24 hours and it becomes less impressive. I was hoping we'd see some widespread 12-16" amounts from extreme eastern Cuyahoga and into Geauga. But that's probably highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Snow has been ripping here in the band for about an hour... probably close to 2" per hour. Best band of the day so far. Hopefully it can hang around awhile longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Ya, our Mayfield-Lyndhurst-Chagrin Falls posters have been getting rocked by that band for an hour+ and it will probably continue for at least a couple more. Edit: Although an examination of the past couple radar frames shows it swinging farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It was absolutely ripping snow ! It has let up a bit in the past 15 min though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yikes. Radar completely fell apart the last half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nothing terribly shocking with the snow reports for the day Monday... Generally 2-4" for much of Cuyahoga county...lesser west. Lake county saw generally an inch or less along the shore and 3-5" far southern where it does start to get hilly. A few 6"+ reports from eastern Cuyahoga County into Geauga County. Ashtabula came in with 0.9" on the day while Pierpont, farther south and near the PA boarder came in with 5". The favored upslope areas in Medina County justified an advisory, with Brunswick reporting 4.5" (the most in the county). Bath in Summit County (NW of Akron) did not report a 12 hour total but reported a 24 hour total of 7" as of 9:15pm and 6" on the ground, suggesting parts of Summit County did approach warning criteria. As of 8pm my storm total snowfall in Reminderville was 4.5" but that will likely be approaching 6" when I go out and measure in the morning. In NW PA there was generally 1-3" of snow during the day Monday in the lower elevations of Erie County...otherwise 4-7" generally for Erie and Crawford Counties. There was one 10.8" report in Erie County. That area did well Sunday night and is doing great now with the Huron connection, so some areas will be pushing 2' in NW PA. Could see some spots get close to a foot storm total here and there from extreme eastern Cuyahoga County points east in OH, but most areas will generally top out 6-10" in that swath. Will be interesting to see some of the snow totals out of the band of heavy snow that persisted well west of Cleveland for a few hours late this evening, some areas out there could have picked up an inch or two of lake effect. Right now there are 3 areas of snow on the map over Ohio...the band that stretched from the western end of Lake Erie down towards Mansfield appears to be weakening, additional accums in the Mansfield area could approach an inch locally between 1am and 7am. The "WRF band" did produce 1-2" per hour rates over a wide area but was somewhat transient. The band has weakened now but still appears to have a connection to lake Michigan. It may flare back up and produce 1-2" additional over the higher terrain of southern Cuyahoga county into parts of Medina/Summit County overnight. The Huron connection is likely intense and is moving into Ashtabula County. 2-4" near the lakeshore and locally up to 6" will be possible inland over Ashtabula county between now and 7am. Elsewhere accums for the rest of the night will be under half an inch additional. Tuesday the snows over the secondary Snow Belt will likely gradually diminish. The Huron connection will likely be intense early but gradually weaken and eventually shift into PA. An inch or so of snow will be possible southern Cuyahoga County into parts of Medina/Summit counties. 2-4" additional appears possible over Ashtabula County. There could be some transitory bands over Lake/Geauga counties that produce locally up to an inch. Elsewhere under an inch of additional accumulation appears to be a good forecast for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nothing terribly shocking with the snow reports for the day Monday... Generally 2-4" for much of Cuyahoga county...lesser west. Lake county saw generally an inch or less along the shore and 3-5" far southern where it does start to get hilly. A few 6"+ reports from eastern Cuyahoga County into Geauga County. Ashtabula came in with 0.9" on the day while Pierpont, farther south and near the PA boarder came in with 5". The favored upslope areas in Medina County justified an advisory, with Brunswick reporting 4.5" (the most in the county). Bath in Summit County (NW of Akron) did not report a 12 hour total but reported a 24 hour total of 7" as of 9:15pm and 6" on the ground, suggesting parts of Summit County did approach warning criteria. As of 8pm my storm total snowfall in Reminderville was 4.5" but that will likely be approaching 6" when I go out and measure in the morning. In NW PA there was generally 1-3" of snow during the day Monday in the lower elevations of Erie County...otherwise 4-7" generally for Erie and Crawford Counties. There was one 10.8" report in Erie County. That area did well Sunday night and is doing great now with the Huron connection, so some areas will be pushing 2' in NW PA. Could see some spots get close to a foot storm total here and there from extreme eastern Cuyahoga County points east in OH, but most areas will generally top out 6-10" in that swath. Will be interesting to see some of the snow totals out of the band of heavy snow that persisted well west of Cleveland for a few hours late this evening, some areas out there could have picked up an inch or two of lake effect. Right now there are 3 areas of snow on the map over Ohio...the band that stretched from the western end of Lake Erie down towards Mansfield appears to be weakening, additional accums in the Mansfield area could approach an inch locally between 1am and 7am. The "WRF band" did produce 1-2" per hour rates over a wide area but was somewhat transient. The band has weakened now but still appears to have a connection to lake Michigan. It may flare back up and produce 1-2" additional over the higher terrain of southern Cuyahoga county into parts of Medina/Summit County overnight. The Huron connection is likely intense and is moving into Ashtabula County. 2-4" near the lakeshore and locally up to 6" will be possible inland over Ashtabula county between now and 7am. Elsewhere accums for the rest of the night will be under half an inch additional. Tuesday the snows over the secondary Snow Belt will likely gradually diminish. The Huron connection will likely be intense early but gradually weaken and eventually shift into PA. An inch or so of snow will be possible southern Cuyahoga County into parts of Medina/Summit counties. 2-4" additional appears possible over Ashtabula County. There could be some transitory bands over Lake/Geauga counties that produce locally up to an inch. Elsewhere under an inch of additional accumulation appears to be a good forecast for Tuesday. With warning criteria being 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours, it was borderline met at best (and very isolated) in Ohio outside of Geauga/Ashtabula Counties. Nonetheless I think the warnings were warranted, however, I would say that the forecast text was definitely more bullish than what hit. The point forecast here still had 3-5" for the overnight period and the warning text had 2-6" additional at the 10 pm update. I think a lot of people and communities in Cuyahoga County were bracing for more. The airport had an inch yesterday, with the secondary belt from Strongsville to Brecksville seeing maybe 2-3", with Cleveland Heights and Shaker Heights seeing maybe 4 or 5 inches tops. I think the problem with period forecasts is that too often you'll see 1-3" tonight, 4-6" tomorrow, and 3-5" tomorrow night and really think that storm total will be at least 8 inches, when in reality it always ends up being storm total of 2-6" when you add up the numbers for each period. And even then, that number gets skewed higher because it is lake effect, so what is actually on the ground by end time is even less. I would like to see the forecast products emphasize final storm total accumulations harder and perhaps use forecast amounts of no accumulation to 5 inches, instead. I ended up with about 2.5", but was to be expected at this location, however from forecast text and warnings, one would have been led to believe that no one in the county would have had less than 5 inches by end time, however the majority of the county didn't hit it. I would say most locales got about half the amount of snow they were expecting over the entire 36-42 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Only 2.1" since 8 p.m. last night and it looks like the LES event is just about done here in Chagrin Falls. Total 8.7" with 7" on the ground this morning. Last night's snow seemed heavy, but either it didn't accumulate much or it blew somewhere else. The winds seemed stronger last night than they were during the day on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 How ironic, there's been a "band" that has pretty much stayed put through central Cuyahoga for the past 7 hours or so. It's barely showing up on radar and is a little more distinct on the composite loop, however it's nothing more than a few flurries. Had that been an "actual band" of snow like the bands we saw yesterday and last night ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Overall I'd have to give this LES outbreak a C+. It stopped and started frequently and when it was going it was not ever more than moderate around these parts. Accumulations were on the lighter side, around 6" max here, though blowing had a lot to do with this shortfall. I give some credit for duration, having started Sunday night and lasted all the way to today, in fact it's still snowing lightly here. I'm really hoping for something more like April 2007, now that was a LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 5.5" total here in Lyndhurst. Definitely a disappointment considering the hype. The winds were howling last night and this morning... much more than yesterday. Short fetch, strong winds and dry air killed snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks to be a good band on the east side. Maybe we have hope for a few more inches ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Definitely a diurnal aspect with it. CLE had their most impressive hourly ob of the event. We'll see if it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 +SN here in Chagrin now with visibility about 1/8 SM. Heaviest snow of the event so far and roads are in rough shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 +SN here in Chagrin now with visibility about 1/8 SM. Heaviest snow of the event so far and roads are in rough shape. It's an absolute white out in Chagrin. Amazing how the band just flared back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 White out downtown too. I took a great pic of the wall of snow moving in from the lake that I'll post later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wow its pouring snow in solon ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Absolutely hammering snow in eastern Beachwood near 271, crazy, heavier than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wish I could screen capture on my phone but the radar shot shows a band perfectly along 271. Then the ends both sway off. Weird look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It got sunny here around 11:15 a.m., got outside for a few minutes and now we are back to 1/8SM in +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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