Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 QPF is still lacking overall on this run, but definitely shows a lakeshore convergence event centered on Lake County north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Gonna get a head start on accumulations here. Nice squall has brought over a half inch in about 45 mins still coming sown for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 72.98" for 2011 at a weather station in Parma ... about 5 miles from the airport. Just incredible. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KOHPARMA5&day=1&year=2011&month=1&graphspan=year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Nice start to the event with solid coating already. Also, looking upstream the winds don't have much a W/WSW component at all. Off of Lake Michigan they are already at 290 or so. I'm feeling a lot better about the winds coming around to a favorable direction much quicker. Winds don't seem to be that strong at the moment... although I'm sure they are much stronger over the lake. I'm not sure if my optimism comes from the Browns season being over... but this LES is looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Wow. Winds may not even go below 270 tonight. Great sign to say the least. The most important thing is where the lake MI connection band sets up. Might be lake county on north coming south well before morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Nice "surprise" in NWOH tonight... already above the NWS forecast of a 1/2" or less for the night, sitting at about 3/5 to 3/4" here in BG. Latest Rapid Refresh run actually showed another 2-3" tomorrow. Should be interesting to see how much Lake MI can do for us here, considering I've yet to witness a decent event (>2") from LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 News Channel 5 is going with 4-6 inches for elyria points east with the 4-8 line starting around rocky river/fariview and runninig east through Trent and into Cleveland. 8-16+ for the typical snowbelts. Trent what are your thoughts? Think we can get a nice lakeshore band to park itself over us like that 10 inch event last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looks like the snow set up as thought last night. It will be interesting to see the snowfall totals out lake and ashtabula. Enjoy the next couple of hours near the lakeshore as the band moves through. Should see whiteout conditions. CLE is still calling for really high totals which I'm not positive about. The colder 850's will be moving in so the snow should start to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I whopping 0.1" overnight in Chagrin Falls, but the band effecting Lake and northern Geauga has been slowly moving southward this morning as the winds veer and it looks like only 2 to 3 miles to go before it gets here. I'm still thinking 12"+. The cold air advection isn't that impressive yet and the winds haven't veered. The event hasn't even begun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I whopping 0.1" overnight in Chagrin Falls, but the band effecting Lake and northern Geauga has been slowly moving southward this morning as the winds veer and it looks like only 2 to 3 miles to go before it gets here. I'm still thinking 12"+. The cold air advection isn't that impressive yet and the winds haven't veered. The event hasn't even begun! Good point. Still 24 hrs + to go. Snow is ripping in lyndhurst right now so its on the way south to your area. The band is looking kind of ragged though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I whopping 0.1" overnight in Chagrin Falls, but the band effecting Lake and northern Geauga has been slowly moving southward this morning as the winds veer and it looks like only 2 to 3 miles to go before it gets here. I'm still thinking 12"+. The cold air advection isn't that impressive yet and the winds haven't veered. The event hasn't even begun! Not even an inch yet SE of L. Huron. It looks like the bands are starting to drop southward off Huron in the last few local radar frames so maybe the show will begin in the next couple of hours on good NW winds. Good luck to you guys in Ohio waiting your turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Good point. Still 24 hrs + to go. Snow is ripping in lyndhurst right now so its on the way south to your area. The band is looking kind of ragged though. Conditions deteriorated rapidly here in Chagrin Falls. At 8:45 it was just a few flakes, now moderately heavy snow with 1/4 mi visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Main band is getting its act together. Running from Trent's BY southeast into the eastern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Woke up this morning to the streets covered in white with around 1/2 " so far. Its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Main band is getting its act together. Running from Trent's BY southeast into the eastern burbs. Just woke up a few minutes ago. I had 1.5" overnight. I assume most of that had just fallen judging by radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Good to see you posting. The models have trended south with the low which will be helpful for turning the winds around quicker. It appeared a few days ago the storm would head more NW which would promote a more WSW fetch initially. BUF mentioned that there were a few analogs they looked at for this event but didn't mention the years. I don't know that we will ever see a '96 again but I'm hopeful. I can't recall the '93 event. I'm sure you will get dumped on in Chesterland... it's one of the best spots for LES outside of the Chardon area. NEOH, Thanks! There are lots of times when I would like to post, but I get busy, distracted, and that cuts back on my posting... Looks like there is about 3 new inches of snow since it started last night. Most has fallen since 7:00 am this morning as when I got up at around 6:30, the street was wet and I had nothing more than a dusting. The winds have turned around to about 285 - 290 driving the snow inland, but it appears like they have gained a more westerly component in the last few minutes which is indicative of another trough approaching the area. The snow here has picked up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'm not terribly impressed with the regional radars right now. Upstream radars seem to be lacking really good bands. The one bad that just exited my backyard was decent, but it's quite narrow. I'd imagine a lot of the forecast totals could not be achieved unless the radar really lights up later this morning. Here is a morning shot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 There had been decent model consensus that this band of snow was going to dip south into Medina and Summit Counties just after sunrise. As typical, it's hanging around a bit longer to the north. Winds should start veering northwesterly after the noon hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 There had been decent model consensus that this band of snow was going to dip south into Medina and Summit Counties just after sunrise. As typical, it's hanging around a bit longer to the north. Winds should start veering northwesterly after the noon hour. Up to 3 inches now. Most of which well in the past 2 hours. The band is parked overhead for the time being. Intense snow at times. The heaviest snow my fall when the trough moves through as convergence will increase. The slower the timing the better for areas near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 NEOH, Thanks! There are lots of times when I would like to post, but I get busy, distracted, and that cuts back on my posting... Looks like there is about 3 new inches of snow since it started last night. Most has fallen since 7:00 am this morning as when I got up at around 6:30, the street was wet and I had nothing more than a dusting. The winds have turned around to about 285 - 290 driving the snow inland, but it appears like they have gained a more westerly component in the last few minutes which is indicative of another trough approaching the area. The snow here has picked up again. You'll be knee deep in Chesterland before you know it. Can't wait to move out to Geauga county... hopefully this coming Spring. The wind is a perfect direction as we are getting a fetch from the entire western basin. I'd be happy if the winds stayed anywhere from 275 - 300 the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 4.7" total so far with some sun peaking out in Chagrin at 1 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 4.7" total so far with some sun peaking out in Chagrin at 1 p.m. Here about 2 mi south of CF I'd say we have 2 - 3" max, the snow is just not organized. It comes down at a decent clip for 5 - 10 mins then stops for the same, then starts again; probably the banding at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Another WRF qpf total for a glance. I'd gladly take this IMBY, but if this plays out area wide, won't be that big of an event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The snow took until about 11:15 to finally cross the county line and get into extreme NE Summit County. Since then have seen a few bursts of heavy snow seperated by little to no snow. Saw 1.2" last night (mostly synoptic snow before 1am) and 0.8" so far today, so 2" so far. There was a localized 11" report in NW PA last night, although given the relatively disorganized nature of the snow today I'd be skeptical of anyone in OH having picked up more than 4" new today as of this writing. However, it appears as though we are seeing a nice flareup over the lake right now that is getting ready to bring another burst of heavy snow to much of northeastern OH: The trough that will shift winds around to the NW-NNW is over SE lower MI and begin moving over the lake after 3pm, and likely start clearing the shoreline around 7pm...you can see the trough on the one of the SPC's mesoanalyisis Lake Effect Snow products, due to the assocaited wind shift and convergence: Behind this trough, winds line up quite well. So I expect continuing rounds of snow for the primary and secondary Snow Belts (and at times getting into the Akron/Youngstown areas) ahead of the trough (note that the convergence has moved just inland from the lake, but is still present and will be present until the trough switches the winds around to the NW). In general I expect another 1-3" of snow area wide today, so some areas (likely over Geauga/Ashtabula counties) will likely end up with over 6" today. Tonight, with distinct multi-bands setting up upstream behind the trough I expect snow to continue downwind of Lake Erie. It will simply be too unstable and moist to see the snow disapear. The BUF WRF's agree, both (of the operational ones) printing out a bullseye of .3"+ new QPF after 0z this evening over southern Cuyahoga/northern Summit/Geauga Counties: Given snow ratios will likely max out tonight, this could mean a localized new 6"+ of snow on the east side tonight. The KBUF WRFs appear to be suggesting some decent banding tonight. I expect the snow to remain slightly more disorganized but heavy at times over the higher elevations given the still decently fast NW flow and short fetch behind the trough. There seems to be good consensus on the Huron band not making it much past Ashtabula county. An additional 3-6" appears likely tonight over southern Cuyahoga, NE Medina, east into nothern Summit/Portage/Trumbull counties with potentially more over Ashtabula County should a nice Huron connection indeed set up. All in all, forecast of 6"+ from southeastern Cuyahoga county points east seems good, with 12"+ likely over portions of Geauga county and then NW PA and perhaps portions of Ashtabula county, depending on how heavy the Huron enhancement is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Had a small break, and now getting some very heavy snow again. Looks like a band may be trying to organize? I'd say there is 4" or so out there now. Hard to tell with the wind blowing everything around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The airport might not even muster more than an inch or two from this. They had 0.4" from the synoptic snows yesterday, and I'm guessing not much more than a dusting today. I'm hoping I can cash in on that band that hopefully sets up through Cuyahoga County this evening. Otherwise, I think accumulations will be hard to achieve outside of it. Also of note, it's January 2nd, and almost all of the snow this winter has been lake effect/lake enhanced. We've yet to truly see the first area wide inch that wasn't from Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Any ideas on why there is a lack of stable band formation? It seems like everything is in place. I thought of wind shear but per the CLE VAD wind profile this afternoon the surface wind is 15 knots with the rest of the boundary layer being 25 knots. Everything is unidirectional so that doesn't seem like it would prohibit bands from developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Returns on radar are very light, but it is snowing heavily in central ohio. Must be high ratios. Near white out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The airport might not even muster more than an inch or two from this. They had 0.4" from the synoptic snows yesterday, and I'm guessing not much more than a dusting today. I'm hoping I can cash in on that band that hopefully sets up through Cuyahoga County this evening. Otherwise, I think accumulations will be hard to achieve outside of it. Also of note, it's January 2nd, and almost all of the snow this winter has been lake effect/lake enhanced. We've yet to truly see the first area wide inch that wasn't from Lake Erie. It feels like we were in the same situation last winter and the winter before WRT a lack of synoptic snowfall heading into January. As an interesting sidenote, as of 3pm Findlay's hourly obs are just as impressive as if not more impressive than CLE's: http://www.weather.g...story/KFDY.html http://www.weather.g...story/KCLE.html Any ideas on why there is a lack of stable band formation? It seems like everything is in place. I thought of wind shear but per the CLE VAD wind profile this afternoon the surface wind is 15 knots with the rest of the boundary layer being 25 knots. Everything is unidirectional so that doesn't seem like it would prohibit bands from developing. I'm not sure. There is definitely one more concentraited area of heavy snow stretching from northern Erie County (Ohio) through the west and south side of the metro area into Medina/Summit/Portage counties (finally). This is the remnants of the convergence that did produce a solid heavy band for a few hours this morning across the east side into the true Snow Belt and that produced a decent band almost all night along the eastern lakeshore. So potentially the shifting winds is prohibiting bands from setting up and sitting in one area for long periods of time. There is also a solid band now extended into Lake and Ashtabula Counties, but my guess is it will be somewhat transient in nature: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 IF BETTER SNOWFALL DOES NOT START TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THEN SOME OF THE WARNINGS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED OR CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN MEDINA COUNTY IS ESPECIALLY QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN NORTHERN COMPONENT TO THE WIND. Eh. Tis the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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