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Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States


Steve

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CLE mentioned likely headlines in their afternoon AFD:

MODELS INDICATING A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.

THE LOW INTENSIFIES SUN NT OVER THE REGION AS BITING ARCTIC AIR

SLIDES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS FAVOR A CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT

EVENT FROM SUN NT THROUGH TUE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO REFINE WITH

THIS PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF MODEL RUNS BUT FUTURE

HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY. FROPA WILL OCCUR ON SUN WITH A NON-

DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE...FOLLOWED BY WINDY RAW DAY ON MON. NORTHWEST

SFC WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH IN ROBUST CAA REGIME UNDER

AMPLIFYING PATTERN. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -14C...WHICH WITH THE

LAKE STILL AROUND 4C WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT

SNOW. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUN NT INTO MON

BEFORE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRES START BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

The 12z Euro remained perhaps a little slower in pulling out the trough than the GFS, although both models indicated winds starting out westerly Sunday night and slowly becoming more NW by Monday evening with deep synoptic moisture in place. 850mb temps will likely bottom out near -20C Tuesday morning although by that point ridging and dry air will likely start moving in from the west.

Gotta love these high low to mid level RH's shown on the 12z Euro:

post-525-0-93658200-1325191890.gif

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CLE mentioned likely headlines in their afternoon AFD:

MODELS INDICATING A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.

THE LOW INTENSIFIES SUN NT OVER THE REGION AS BITING ARCTIC AIR

SLIDES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS FAVOR A CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT

EVENT FROM SUN NT THROUGH TUE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO REFINE WITH

THIS PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF MODEL RUNS BUT FUTURE

HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY. FROPA WILL OCCUR ON SUN WITH A NON-

DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE...FOLLOWED BY WINDY RAW DAY ON MON. NORTHWEST

SFC WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH IN ROBUST CAA REGIME UNDER

AMPLIFYING PATTERN. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -14C...WHICH WITH THE

LAKE STILL AROUND 4C WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT

SNOW. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUN NT INTO MON

BEFORE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRES START BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

The 12z Euro remained perhaps a little slower in pulling out the trough than the GFS, although both models indicated winds starting out westerly Sunday night and slowly becoming more NW by Monday evening with deep synoptic moisture in place. 850mb temps will likely bottom out near -20C Tuesday morning although by that point ridging and dry air will likely start moving in from the west.

Gotta love these high low to mid level RH's shown on the 12z Euro:

Good to see the models have not backed off. I'm pretty optimistic for a significant event. Only limiting factor may be the wind speed reducing residence time over the lake and preventing band development. Moisture and lake/air differential look great. Now if we can only slow down the ridging a bit.

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Ya the winds will be a wild card. A possible recent analog for this upcoming event may be December 12-15 last year. The large scale pattern is not the same, but that event featured a fast NW flow with good moisture and similar lake to air temp differentials to what is being modeled for this upcoming Monday-Tuesday. That event produced well inland but was a disappointment right along the lake shore.

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Ya the winds will be a wild card. A possible recent analog for this upcoming event may be December 12-15 last year. The large scale pattern is not the same, but that event featured a fast NW flow with good moisture and similar lake to air temp differentials to what is being modeled for this upcoming Monday-Tuesday. That event produced well inland but was a disappointment right along the lake shore.

Off the top of my head, I couldn't remember that, but I looked it up and I logged 3.3". And actually looking back to last winter, there are only 4 events that I can recall off the top of my head (the early November LES, the Dec 8 LES, and the two March snowstorms), the rest weren't noteworthy enough to make it into my long term memory.

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Off the top of my head, I couldn't remember that, but I looked it up and I logged 3.3". And actually looking back to last winter, there are only 4 events that I can recall off the top of my head (the early November LES, the Dec 8 LES, and the two March snowstorms), the rest weren't noteworthy enough to make it into my long term memory.

Ya, that event did drop a foot to a foot and a half over the secondary belt and due to the strong NNW flow areas like Akron, Ravenna and Youngstown saw some decent snow too IIRC, but given strong winds it was not even advisory worthy along the lake shore. The snow that fell wasn't unprecedented but it was bitterly cold in the teens and 20s and the winds were gusting 30-40MPH which really made things bad inland.

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BEST CHANCE WILL BE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT

AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C OR SO BY EVENING. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -11 TO -13C BY 12Z

MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. BY TUESDAY 00Z THE GFS SHOWS -14C OVER THE LAKE AND -20C BY TUESDAY 12Z. A QUICK LOOK AT BUFKIT

SHOWS A RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSITIVE ENERGY IN THE SOUNDING APPROACHING 600MB IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.

WITH CONVECTION THIS DEEP COULD SEE THUNDER SNOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT THE SNOW BELT TO GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF

SNOW FOR THE EVENT.

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Another warm year for Cleveland, while not quite top 10 material, we are currently at ~52.2 degrees for the year. Last year was 8th warmest at 52.6, a record that was a lock until the frigid December negated 11 months of record warmth.

I have no idea how they will calculate averages since the first half of the year used 1971-2000 normals and the last half using the 1981-2010 normals.

Just a waiting game now til Sunday for the snow, with the hi-res models hopefully offering some clarity tomorrow. Monday is the non-holiday holiday so travel and commuting impacts should be relatively low.

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Another warm year for Cleveland, while not quite top 10 material, we are currently at ~52.2 degrees for the year. Last year was 8th warmest at 52.6, a record that was a lock until the frigid December negated 11 months of record warmth.

I have no idea how they will calculate averages since the first half of the year used 1971-2000 normals and the last half using the 1981-2010 normals.

Just a waiting game now til Sunday for the snow, with the hi-res models hopefully offering some clarity tomorrow. Monday is the non-holiday holiday so travel and commuting impacts should be relatively low.

BUF seems cautiously optimistic... while CLE has jumped on the LES blitz bandwagon. BUF has concerns about wind speed which makes sense -

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW...SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE

EFFECT...WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH WILL DISRUPT ORGANIZED BANDS AND LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME. ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE

LIMITED WITH POST FRONT 850 MB TEMPS INITIALLY ONLY -8C...DROPPING TO -12C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS UNSTABLE...THERE IS SOME

CONCERN STRONG WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF A DISCRETE AND INTENSE BAND.

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BUF seems cautiously optimistic... while CLE has jumped on the LES blitz bandwagon. BUF has concerns about wind speed which makes sense -

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW...SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE

EFFECT...WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH WILL DISRUPT ORGANIZED BANDS AND LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME. ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE

LIMITED WITH POST FRONT 850 MB TEMPS INITIALLY ONLY -8C...DROPPING TO -12C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS UNSTABLE...THERE IS SOME

CONCERN STRONG WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF A DISCRETE AND INTENSE BAND.

Yeah, there is reason to be of concern. However, for BUF, this wind direction isn't quite favorable for populated parts of their western CWA.

I would like to see how the hi-res models start handling potential band placement, and am inclined to think with the winds that the snow might be more orographically oriented to where you see typical radar returns south of the turnpike that never really move north or south. However, if there are shortwaves rotating through, they tend to cause flare ups everywhere and keep it a more "equal opportunity" snow versus confining a single band to one spot.

There have been some huge busts in recent memory where the parameters look great, warnings go out, and nothing ever materializes. I do think that if one lives in southern and far eastern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, northern Summit, and eastern Geauga, they'll do fine. But I'm a bit skeptical for here and Lake County.

I've also found that lake effect snow with extreme winds is hard to accumulate. Typically LES is so fluffy and light that it normally settles to a third of its depth in a day or so. So when it's accompanied by the strong winds, it accumulates like what it would look like after settling.

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Great write-up, Trent.

The winds don't seem to be favorable for most of the area until Monday night, but it seems like everything falls into place then. With 850 temperatures close to -20 C, NW wind, plenty of moisture in the boundary layer and a bit of cyclonic vorticity advection...the lower atmosphere will be super unstable. Check out the TSSN in the NAM extraction for Monday Night (KCGF).

post-7331-0-42741900-1325290431.png

post-7331-0-56999800-1325290538.png

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Here is a 84 hr ECMWF forecast for 7 pm Monday evening (local). SFC wind direction and speed:

post-7331-0-05750700-1325291179.png

Lake Erie surface wind looks to be about 20 knots, but surface winds over the primary snow belt areas inland seem around 10 knots.

Look at the potential Lake Huron connection! I'm usually not optimistic, but this seems to be like a good event may happen. :weenie:

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Here is a 84 hr ECMWF forecast for 7 pm Monday evening (local). SFC wind direction and speed:

Lake Erie surface wind looks to be about 20 knots, but surface winds over the primary snow belt areas inland seem around 10 knots.

Look at the potential Lake Huron connection! I'm usually not optimistic, but this seems to be like a good event may happen. :weenie:

I'll wait until tomorrow to jump on board the wind direction... but there seems to be growing consensus with the models that the winds will start out from a WSW'erly direction, and not come around to the WNW until sometime on Monday. Definitely a change. Best LES parameters are late Sunday night and Monday. Winds typically are very slow to come around to WNW... lake induced troughing seems to "hold" the W to WSW in place longer than expected. By the time the winds come around to a favorable direction the window of opportunity may be closing. Best case scenario is that the bands develop on a 270 flow and come around to 280-300. Lot's to be determined but the trend in the models is not the best. It will be cold and snowy, just how snowy is the question.

To get a Lake Huron connection we'll need a fetch of 330 or greater, unless you live in Ashtabula county.

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Ya, still lots of small details to work out.

The NAM appears to be the slowest in bringing the winds around to a more northerly direction out of the GFS/Euro/NAM. This may be something to watch because the NAM is a relatively high resolution model. Either way however, you can see on both the NAM/Euro a convergence zone developing along the lakeshore Sunday night for several hours and slowly pushing south Monday morning. By mid afternoon Monday even the NAM has pushed the trough south and winds are more WNW-NW over the whole area. Even if the trough sits longer than anticipated (which sometimes happens) the synoptic flow is turning NW by late Monday afternoon and by that point, barring significant changes, I expect the trough will push well south of the lakeshore and inland locations will be in the game.

The wind speed is higher than ideal but is slacking by Monday night as the pressure gradient weakens. This still could keep things in check along the shore starting Monday once the wind shift convergence along the lakeshore shifts south. However, with a NW wind veering more NNW Monday night inland locations with some elevation should cash in despite the stronger than ideal winds. As Trent mentioned, could be a situation where we see a blob of moderate to heavy orographic snows.

The modeled wind direction at this point is very close to being northerly enough to bring a Huron connection into the east side of the Cleveland metro...in fact, the 12z Euro brought the connection into the eastern suburbs for a few hours Monday morning. Too early to say whether or not the Huron connection will make much headway into northern Ohio but it's something to watch as we get into the short range modeling over the next day or so.

The boundary layer will be plenty moist through early Tuesday. With winds shifting sometime Monday morning-early afternoon to a more WNW-NW and eventually NNW direction I think this will give inland Ashtabula, Geauga, southern/eastern Cuyahoga, northern Summit/Portage/Trumbull counties about a 24 hour window for heavy lake effect. On Tuesday things will probably lighten up significantly outside of any potential Huron connection. Along the shore there will be a window for moderate to heavy snows before winds shift sometime Monday and again where any potential Huron connection sets up.

All in all, several positives and a couple negatives and some small wild cards (namely when the wind shifts) to work out. I think this will likely at least be a moderate event for a good number of people (mainly inland) however along the shore will be tough to tell.

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Ya, still lots of small details to work out.

The NAM appears to be the slowest in bringing the winds around to a more northerly direction out of the GFS/Euro/NAM. This may be something to watch because the NAM is a relatively high resolution model. Either way however, you can see on both the NAM/Euro a convergence zone developing along the lakeshore Sunday night for several hours and slowly pushing south Monday morning. By mid afternoon Monday even the NAM has pushed the trough south and winds are more WNW-NW over the whole area. Even if the trough sits longer than anticipated (which sometimes happens) the synoptic flow is turning NW by late Monday afternoon and by that point, barring significant changes, I expect the trough will push well south of the lakeshore and inland locations will be in the game.

The wind speed is higher than ideal but is slacking by Monday night as the pressure gradient weakens. This still could keep things in check along the shore starting Monday once the wind shift convergence along the lakeshore shifts south. However, with a NW wind veering more NNW Monday night inland locations with some elevation should cash in despite the stronger than ideal winds. As Trent mentioned, could be a situation where we see a blob of moderate to heavy orographic snows.

The modeled wind direction at this point is very close to being northerly enough to bring a Huron connection into the east side of the Cleveland metro...in fact, the 12z Euro brought the connection into the eastern suburbs for a few hours Monday morning. Too early to say whether or not the Huron connection will make much headway into northern Ohio but it's something to watch as we get into the short range modeling over the next day or so.

The boundary layer will be plenty moist through early Tuesday. With winds shifting sometime Monday morning-early afternoon to a more WNW-NW and eventually NNW direction I think this will give inland Ashtabula, Geauga, southern/eastern Cuyahoga, northern Summit/Portage/Trumbull counties about a 24 hour window for heavy lake effect. On Tuesday things will probably lighten up significantly outside of any potential Huron connection. Along the shore there will be a window for moderate to heavy snows before winds shift sometime Monday and again where any potential Huron connection sets up.

All in all, several positives and a couple negatives and some small wild cards (namely when the wind shifts) to work out. I think this will likely at least be a moderate event for a good number of people (mainly inland) however along the shore will be tough to tell.

That's why inland locations average 40-50" more than me. :) It's always a crapshoot here at the shore, but we were the jackpot a few weeks ago. Getting the 10"+ LES events are generally every couple years, while almost guaranteed at least once a season if you are in the inland traditional snowbelt. Getting 4-7" from a region wide classic LES event is a good LES event here.

I hope to do some snow chasing on Monday if some good amounts materialize and the road conditions warrant. I made the mistake of heading to Chagrin in Jan 2009 when I saw a decent band on radar without any warnings. I thought it'd be fun to check it out, little did I realize it was a white out and 18" had fallen (the warning wasn't issued until well in the afternoon).

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That's why inland locations average 40-50" more than me. :) It's always a crapshoot here at the shore, but we were the jackpot a few weeks ago. Getting the 10"+ LES events are generally every couple years, while almost guaranteed at least once a season if you are in the inland traditional snowbelt. Getting 4-7" from a region wide classic LES event is a good LES event here.

I hope to do some snow chasing on Monday if some good amounts materialize and the road conditions warrant. I made the mistake of heading to Chagrin in Jan 2009 when I saw a decent band on radar without any warnings. I thought it'd be fun to check it out, little did I realize it was a white out and 18" had fallen (the warning wasn't issued until well in the afternoon).

Ya, that storm was insane out here. That was a head scratcher from CLE if I recalled, warnings were issued the 1st for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula IIRC and eastern Cuyahoga had seen a half foot by the end of the day...warnings were expanded to include Cuyahoga the 2nd and we got crushed in the morning (storm totals were already pushing a foot to a foot and a half IIRC)...warnings were allowed to expire because the snow lightened some during the afternoon. Early on the third a snow band developed and sat for most of the day, with 3" per hour rates at times. Didn't really let up until mid morning on the forth and added another foot to foot and a half. We saw more moderate bursts through the 6th that totaled to 3-4' from eastern Cuyahoga County into Geauga County, we truly got buried.

Edit: Yes, I logged 36.7" of snow out of the first few days of January 2010 and a few hundredths of an inch of ice as the last day the lake effect moisture didn't reach into the snow growth zone. Biggest snowstorm of my life.

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That's why inland locations average 40-50" more than me. :) It's always a crapshoot here at the shore, but we were the jackpot a few weeks ago. Getting the 10"+ LES events are generally every couple years, while almost guaranteed at least once a season if you are in the inland traditional snowbelt. Getting 4-7" from a region wide classic LES event is a good LES event here.

I hope to do some snow chasing on Monday if some good amounts materialize and the road conditions warrant. I made the mistake of heading to Chagrin in Jan 2009 when I saw a decent band on radar without any warnings. I thought it'd be fun to check it out, little did I realize it was a white out and 18" had fallen (the warning wasn't issued until well in the afternoon).

In Chesterland, we get our best LES when there is either a Lake Huron connection or if the snow bands are set up WNW - ESE. The WNW - ESE wind orientation brought us the big LES events of December 1993 and November 1996. For a NW flow, places such as Streetsboro, Mantua, and N Royalton get the most snow. I have co-workers from those areas who will get 6-12" from a NW flow while I get around and inch or so. Sometimes I think the Secondary Snow Belt is a little underrated.

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Looking at the bufkit data from the recent model runs, looks like the NAM and GFS have backed off on the extended WSW flow. 270 to 300 seems to be the primary direction until the winds veer. Great direction for a primary band, and also a Lake MI connection.

Yeah, this would be good for us. Still 40 hours out, but the very last frame of one of the hi res models indicates this development:

hrw-arw_wus_048_sim_radar.gif

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CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ALL FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW

IN THE SNOWBELT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. VEERING MEAN

FLOW WILL LEAD TO SHIFTING SNOW BANDS SO SOME ADJUSTMENT OF HEADLINE

MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THE EVENT BUT FOR NOW WILL BROAD BRUSH A

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH ACROSS THE SNOWBELT FOR THE WHOLE EVENT.

COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CLOUD PRODUCE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS AT TIMES BUT JUST DON`T THINK USING A BLIZZARD TYPE

PRODUCT FOR A LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WOULD BE BEST WAY TO GO.

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Yeah, this would be good for us. Still 40 hours out, but the very last frame of one of the hi res models indicates this development:

I wish CLE would update the WRF. You would think it would be helpful for LES forecasting. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. There are a lot of positives going for it.

Browns play at 4:30 tomorrow. I wouldn't want to be sitting outside.

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I wish CLE would update the WRF. You would think it would be helpful for LES forecasting. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. There are a lot of positives going for it.

Browns play at 4:30 tomorrow. I wouldn't want to be sitting outside.

They really need to update their WRF. The GFS based WRF usually was ok with band placement (sometimes too far south by like 10 miles) but it was a local view that was helpful for lake effect forecasting. But, they haven't updated the GFS based WRF since April of 09...

Starting to get real excited here. Just hope i'm not too far north...on the border of mayfield and gates mills

It still looks like a period of W-WNW winds Sunday night into Monday morning...and as Trent just noted, some of the WRFs are already starting to key on primary band development in that timeframe. I think you see a primary band near or over your head for potentially several hours after midnight Sunday into the daylight hours on Monday that eventually shifts south and disapaits. After that, you will probably be somewhere between little to no snow on the shore and heavy snow inland...that's usually what will happen with these strong wind/short fetch events. Today's WRFs will start getting into the "helpful" timeframe finally.

And as a side thought, Portage/Summit and possibly Lorain/Medina counties will probably need some sort of headline eventually with the strong NW winds, which favors northern portions of Portage/Summit/Medina and far southeastern Lorain county.

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Starting to get real excited here. Just hope i'm not too far north...on the border of mayfield and gates mills

I think we will be ok. The sharpness of the incoming trough will help move the winds from WSW to WNW in a pretty short period of time. Then, according to the models, we will be getting a good period of WNW flow. That plus a combined flow off lake Michigan (not to mention both lakes are still relatively warm) will give us a good dumping before the winds push the snow further inland to the I-80 corridor.

The LES event of 12/25 - 12/26 1993 was brought on by WNW winds and it brought 2' - 3' of snow to our area. November of '96 was another, albeit, very extended WNW flow event. (4'-6'). :snowing:

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I think we will be ok. The sharpness of the incoming trough will help move the winds from WSW to WNW in a pretty short period of time. Then, according to the models, we will be getting a good period of WNW flow. That plus a combined flow off lake Michigan (not to mention both lakes are still relatively warm) will give us a good dumping before the winds push the snow further inland to the I-80 corridor.

The LES event of 12/25 - 12/26 1993 was brought on by WNW winds and it brought 2' - 3' of snow to our area. November of '96 was another, albeit, very extended WNW flow event. (4'-6'). :snowing:

Good to see you posting. The models have trended south with the low which will be helpful for turning the winds around quicker. It appeared a few days ago the storm would head more NW which would promote a more WSW fetch initially.

BUF mentioned that there were a few analogs they looked at for this event but didn't mention the years. I don't know that we will ever see a '96 again but I'm hopeful. I can't recall the '93 event.

I'm sure you will get dumped on in Chesterland... it's one of the best spots for LES outside of the Chardon area.

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