NEOH Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Huge flakes are ripping now. Looks like the synoptic snows will pretty much be a failure. Lake enhanced areas should do ok tonight, but I can't see more than 2-4 in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 SN here... could get the grass completely covered. About 1/3" melted this morning, so that brings the total to around an inch. Too lazy to measure right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 just turned to snow here in fairlawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Major fail here. Nothing more than a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 WRF 18z is persistant with the bullseye on ne cuyh county through geauga with .85 liquid equiv. Does that include what has already fallen, or is that additional? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 dta, I'm guessing that was the 12z run from Tuesday, so that would have included stuff that had already fallen. About 2.6" here thus far...1.8" when I got home around 7pm and an additional 0.8" since then. Snowing moderately to at times heavily now. Saw a report of 4" new snow in Solon on Facebook (as of 2 hours ago/about 10pm). It may have some credibility, as the hills in the northern portions of the city already had light accumulations occurring at 1pm on my way to work and may have seen more synoptic snows than down here in northeastern Summit County. Work also had close to 3" a couple miles down the road from northern Solon when I left at 630pm. Given this it appears as though most areas from the higher elevations of northeastern Medina/south-central Cuyahoga counties points northeast have scene a general 2-3" of snowfall thus far, and giving the aforementioned Facebook post some weight a general 3-5" has fallen over eastern Cuyahoga county into Geauga county thus far. There is still enough synoptic moisture for convergence caused by the lake to continue generating moderate snowfall from Medina/Lorain counties points east. There has been a gradual diminishing trend on radar over the past hour but the general area seeing moderate snowfall has not changed. Rates at my house have been approaching half an inch an hour this hour, and I'm not quite under the heaviest returns. 850mb temps are starting to drop so we should see true lake effect processes starting over the lake but synoptic moisture will gradually continue to pull out until we are rather dry above about 850mb by 5-6am. Given current snowfall rates and the likelihood we will only see a slow diminishing trend through morning I expect an additional 1 to locally three inches along the stretch of higher elevation from northeast Medina/south-central Cuyahoga counties points east-northeast. Lowest amounts (closer to 1") likely over northern Medina/south-central Cuyahoga county with gradually higher amounts as you head east where moisture will hang on slightly longer and where lake effect may kick in better. This will push storm totals over the higher elevations to a widespread 3-6" with some locally higher amounts possible, which is generally along with previous expectations. On a side note, the lake shore and locations near it may struggle to pull off much more than an inch as rain has continued to try to mix back in. Will be curious to see what Trent reports, as well as the airport. Am not sure the KMFD area made out as well with the synoptic snow as I had expected...Mansfield was essentially all snow today but visibilities never got too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I'm actually sitting in the Seattle Airport awaiting my red eye flight back to Cleveland in an hour. Im doubtful there is much more than a dusting at my house. I was able to visit Mt St. Helens Christmas day and see some snow. Yesterday I hiked around 5,800' at Mt. Hood, where it was 22 degrees with a 30"+ snow pack. Now that's what I call a white Christmas. In other news this storm sends CLE into another top ten wettest month, with unfortunately minimal snow as part of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 2.5" of slop was my total. Temps didn't drop below freezing until late last night. The slop has become glaciated so it will probably stick around for a couple of days. The GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement on a LES outbreak early next week. Could be a huge, long duration event if the models verify. I'm sure the models will change between now then but next week is looking wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I would say 2.5-3 was what I got. I got out last night around 10 and noticed temps had risen and not dropped. One of the discussions from cle mentioned the wind shift across the warm lake was causing that. The long range from cle mentioned the les outbreak next week too. I hope its a good one ! Any chance temps will be cold enough for snow thurs and Fri with the clipper ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I'm actually sitting in the Seattle Airport awaiting my red eye flight back to Cleveland in an hour. Im doubtful there is much more than a dusting at my house. I was able to visit Mt St. Helens Christmas day and see some snow. Yesterday I hiked around 5,800' at Mt. Hood, where it was 22 degrees with a 30"+ snow pack. Now that's what I call a white Christmas. In other news this storm sends CLE into another top ten wettest month, with unfortunately minimal snow as part of that. We've eclipsed the 65" mark... despite CLE indicating that we would not. Every storm continues to over produce. CLE picked up .60 yesterday and 1.1 of snow... a lot of precip wasted on RN/SN mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Just a dusting left here. There was about a half inch of glacier snow on my car, so it definitely snowed hard enough and briefly accumulated. But judging by yesterdays temps at BKL and CLE it was quite warm. Just one sub freezing high this month, a chilly 31. All things considered for this pattern, the 8" at CLE isn't terrible. I haven't followed anything for a few days, but a nice long term LES outbreak would be a great way to start the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Just a dusting left here. There was about a half inch of glacier snow on my car, so it definitely snowed hard enough and briefly accumulated. But judging by yesterdays temps at BKL and CLE it was quite warm. Just one sub freezing high this month, a chilly 31. All things considered for this pattern, the 8" at CLE isn't terrible. I haven't followed anything for a few days, but a nice long term LES outbreak would be a great way to start the year. If last nights models verified, it would be a huge LES event over 3 days with a WNW flow. Can't get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 0.7" new since midnight, total to 3.3". Only about 2 on the ground though that is now rock hard. The euro has been showing a very deep trough for days now early next week so this les threat may be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 .... The euro has been showing a very deep trough for days now early next week so this les threat may be legit. yep, looks like us 'inlanders' are gonna have to live vicarioulsy thru you lakeshore dwellers for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 yep, looks like us 'inlanders' are gonna have to live vicarioulsy thru you lakeshore dwellers for snow. You "southerners" have a shot at some snow with the clipper on Friday. Temps will probably be an issue as usual this winter. We'll have to see what happens with the LES event next week. Could be big or just another transient shot. My camera will be warmed up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Although the Euro/GFS show decent differences in the upper air evolution of the pattern Sunday-Tuesday (the GFS is more progressive with the trough although they are in closer agreement 12z) they both show air cold enough to get extreme lake induced instability starting Monday morning lasting through Tuesday evening and both show a significant area of mid level synoptic moisture to seed the lake effect through at least Tuesday morning. This tells me (or the weenie in me, whatever that's supposed to mean) that even if one model is wrong and caves to the other, or if both models trend one way or another, that we will need the models to be epically wrong at the 120 hour range for us not to get at the very least accumulating snows Monday-Tuesday. 12z models have not changed much from the 0z runs that CLE saw before writing their AM AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Although the Euro/GFS show decent differences in the upper air evolution of the pattern Sunday-Tuesday (the GFS is more progressive with the trough although they are in closer agreement 12z) they both show air cold enough to get extreme lake induced instability starting Monday morning lasting through Tuesday evening and both show a significant area of mid level synoptic moisture to seed the lake effect through at least Tuesday morning. This tells me (or the weenie in me, whatever that's supposed to mean) that even if one model is wrong and caves to the other, or if both models trend one way or another, that we will need the models to be epically wrong at the 120 hour range for us not to get at the very least accumulating snows Monday-Tuesday. 12z models have not changed much from the 0z runs that CLE saw before writing their AM AFD. That just doesn't sound good ... just joking. Seems like the model runs today were a little more progressive with the trough. It's been that way for awhile so I would suspect that will happen. Anyway, a 2 day LES blitz can dump a lot of snow. I think the euro had 850's down to -18 or so. A deep and moist cyclonic flow is what usually delivers the best LES snows. The key will be moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 A lot of places in northern Ohio could really make up for lost time this winter. This type of set up, granted too far out to nitpick, would be great for traditional Snowbelt locales, but I'd prefer a slightly north of west flow to to cash in on the shore. Regardless, the east side should start looking like winter in the new year. As evidenced from the Saturday event a few weeks ago, the lake is primed to dump with the right set up and lake temps haven't budged much. It was about 2 years ago this weekend that Solon/Chagrin got about 18" from a single day LES band. I drove out to check it out and was caught off guard, would like a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That just doesn't sound good ... just joking. Seems like the model runs today were a little more progressive with the trough. It's been that way for awhile so I would suspect that will happen. Anyway, a 2 day LES blitz can dump a lot of snow. I think the euro had 850's down to -18 or so. A deep and moist cyclonic flow is what usually delivers the best LES snows. The key will be moisture. If anything the 12z models all appear to be relatively close to one-another, and the HPC 500mb forecasts seem to be right in the middle of the latest models. The Euro has been slowly trending more progressive for 2-3 runs now...the GFS was initially far more progressive IIRC but has trended towards the Euro. Given the lack of true blockiness we may see things trend a tad more progressive but I doubt we see HUGE shifts. We'll see though. Right now both the GFS/Euro show deep moisture for a good 24 hour window starting early Monday and try to build ridging in by Tuesday evening, which would still be a longer timeframe by far than what we've seen this fall-winter for lake effect thus far with any system. A lot of places in northern Ohio could really make up for lost time this winter. This type of set up, granted too far out to nitpick, would be great for traditional Snowbelt locales, but I'd prefer a slightly north of west flow to to cash in on the shore. Regardless, the east side should start looking like winter in the new year. As evidenced from the Saturday event a few weeks ago, the lake is primed to dump with the right set up and lake temps haven't budged much. It was about 2 years ago this weekend that Solon/Chagrin got about 18" from a single day LES band. I drove out to check it out and was caught off guard, would like a repeat. Four day totals topped 30" at my house in Solon and locally 36" IIRC with that storm, and as you noted we saw a couple of furious bursts of snow that lasted for hours with that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Being a newbie, can you guys explain what you mean by "more progressive" and how that will affect the lake effect setup next week? A shorter duration event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Being a newbie, can you guys explain what you mean by "more progressive" and how that will affect the lake effect setup next week? A shorter duration event? Yes, by more progressive I mean the trough moves through faster and is perhaps not as deep. As you said, that would result in a shorter duration event. We'll see if things trend this way or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Still looking good for the first big LES event starting Sunday night. Snow deficits at CLE will be around a foot, so it will at least cut into that. It's nice to follow the set up for this event rather than a variable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Still looking good for the first big LES event starting Sunday night. Snow deficits at CLE will be around a foot, so it will at least cut into that. It's nice to follow the set up for this event rather than a variable storm track. Any thoughts on wind directions coming up starting Sunday? NW or WNW would be great. Just not the dreaded SW.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Still looking good for the first big LES event starting Sunday night. Snow deficits at CLE will be around a foot, so it will at least cut into that. It's nice to follow the set up for this event rather than a variable storm track. I know it's way early to look at wind direction... but it appears that winds will start out Westerly and gradually shift around to the NW. Excellent postioning for a WNW flow event. We'll have to watch for a Lake MI connection for primary band development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Any thoughts on wind directions coming up starting Sunday? NW or WNW would be great. Just not the dreaded SW.............. It doesn't appear the flow will be SW or WSW'erly. Being in London, you'll probably have to wait a little longer until the winds come around more NW'erly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This is the last one in the series right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Winds will probably be gusty which favors inland locations. But these types of situations always have rotating impulses that flare up convergence every so often. The traditional snowbelt will do well and I envision the back to work/school new year Tuesday will be a mess. It will be interesting to see how the toasty lakes interact with this air mass that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 And then there is this: 000 FZUS61 KCLE 291443 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 943 AM EST THU DEC 29 2011 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS AVERAGING 29.70 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AVERAGING 30.00 INCHES WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY. LEZ061-162>169-292115- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT- LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY- 943 AM EST THU DEC 29 2011 .THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. .TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WAVES 5 TO 8 FEET. .FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. WAVES 5 TO 8 FEET SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET. .SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET. .SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO GALES TO 40 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 11 TO 15 FEET. .MONDAY...WEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. WAVES 11 TO 15 FEET SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Hoping to catch in on some lake effect and upper level low snow showers when I head back to Columbus monday. Euro shows .05" with 850s supporting ratios above 15:1 possibly. Could see a solid inch or so which would be big news for us LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.