Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[wxdudemike]

GFS trend towards the Euro early next week?

[Jonger]

Johndee has been pointing at the euro and the day 9 storm for the upper Midwest. I really want to see this hit Michigan. I don't care where... Just hit Michigan.

[NEOH]

The persistent features causing our bland weather are very evident on this loop:

The relatively zonal hemispheric flow (even across the Pacific Ocean)

The persistent Icelandic low

No blocking features

Polar vortex stationary in interior Canada

I had to laugh when I saw the 10-day 00Z ECMWF:

That's a +10 C 850-temp over Cleveland at 00Z January 2nd!

Here are the GFS OP and ECMWF ensemble mean for the same time:

The ECMWF ensemble and GFS are both about -5 for a 850 temp, the GFS trying to develop a ridge out west and amplify the pattern a bit. Still very bland weather with no polar air, but whether it will be 35 degrees or 65 degrees to ring in the New Year is open for debate.

Looks like the GFS and Euro are somewhat in agreement of storm coming up from the south. Good to see at this point. My gut tells me this storm will keep appearing weaker and weaker on the models and before you know its a weak wave heading OTS. Sure hope I am wrong.

EDIT: Wrong time frame, I was referring to next Tuesday

[Shsg Falls]

Something is afoot at the end of the medium-range period...

Looks like some arctic air after a very mild start to the New Year.

[OHweather]

Looks like the GFS and Euro are somewhat in agreement of storm coming up from the south. Good to see at this point. My gut tells me this storm will keep appearing weaker and weaker on the models and before you know its a weak wave heading OTS. Sure hope I am wrong.

EDIT: Wrong time frame, I was referring to next Tuesday

The GFS trended towards the Euro for next Tuesday, both now showing partial phasing between old cutoff energy moving out of the SW US and a shortwave moving by to our north, resulting in a period of rain or snow (very marginal temp profile). I'm not too excited at this point, even if current forecasts verify could be a situation like last night where there is simply no real cold air and the majority of the precip falls as rain.

As we look ahead...into January...medium to long range models are continuing to hint at a potential warming of the stratosphere and subsequent weakening of the polar vortex...the day 10 Euro shows significant warming occuring at the top of the stratosphere and a significant weakening of the zonal winds associated with the polar vortex...

Day 10 1pHa temps and geopotential heights per yesterday afternoon's Euro show that the stratospheric vortex is expected to be disrupted at the upper most parts of the stratosphere by day 10:

o

The warming isn't downwelling yet at this point, but these model signals have been consistent for the past week or more for a potential weakening of the polar vortex during January, which may lead to an eventual switch to more wintry weather the second half of the month.

[wxdudemike]

0z NAM and GFS want to thread the needle possibly for some of us next week. Not very much, only an inch or two. But I'll take it! 12z Euro/GFS seemed to agree, so let's see if the 0z Euro can keep the ball rollin'...

[Shsg Falls]

The system on the 27th seems mild. Maybe ending as snow, especially for northern Ohio, but much of it looks to be rain. Here is BUF's AFD:

WHILE WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH STEADY

SLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUR AIRMASS

APPEARS AS IF IT SHOULD EASILY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN

RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANY TRANSITION TO SNOW HOLDING OFF

UNTIL THE PRECIP IS TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH LIKE WE JUST

EXPERIENCED THIS PAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD

ONCE AGAIN HOLD ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO MINIMAL

VALUES...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING

SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH

SEASONABLE TEMPS.

However, the ECMWF is slower and more amplified with the system, so perhaps there will be a decent chance of some good lake effect on the 28th?

ECMWF 850:

In any event, looks like the atmosphere will be trending towards more amplification and less of a progressive zonal flow during the next two weeks. It's got to get colder sooner or later.

[NEOH]

12Z Euro looked good for N OH. It's within the Euro's wheelhouse so I wouldn't expect any major changes. Let's hope the cold air can get in here before the precip ends.

[OHweather]

12Z Euro looked good for N OH. It's within the Euro's wheelhouse so I wouldn't expect any major changes. Let's hope the cold air can get in here before the precip ends.

I think the potential for a rain to snow 1-3" type event is growing. I'll look at models after work at midnight, but there appears to be better phasing potential with this system than last Thursday night's system meaning more cold air coming down to work with and more precip. If we weren't in such a warm pattern we would be looking at at least a solid advisory criteria event.

[Shsg Falls]

Definitely a pattern change for the New Year. The Icelandic low is persists, but look at the amplification!

[OHweather]

The 12z Euro printed out .5" of liquid equivalent for CLE Tuesday into Wednesday with surface temps at or below 36 and 850mb temps supporting snow...Chicago Storm posted the text output in the thread for that storm:

The 12z GFS trended more amplified, so barring a major NW trend this is looking good for accumulating snows on Tuesday. The Euro continues to suggest an advisory level event, although thermal profiles will need to be looked at closely as we get closer to the event. The 0z models tonight will be much more useful for this storm IMO as the Pacific shortwave will be fully sampled.

And, if we aren't going to get a white Christmas, it might as well be a beautiful day, which it is with a period of full sunshine right now and temps well into the 40s. Merry Christmas!!

[NEOH]

Merry Christmas! Full sun and upper 40's out there. Nice day.

Good to see the potential for next Tuesday still on the table.

[NEOH]

CLE is going with primarily snow 2-4 + LES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... NAM/GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE

FEATURES ON TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE NWP SUITE NOW SHOWING SOME DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS AND THE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION

INTO OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 00Z TUESDAY ARE WARM WITH 800MB TEMPS AS HIGH AS 5C. TREMENDOUS

EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 08Z TUESDAY MORNING WHICH

SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO START OFF AS SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE SURFACE

PRESSURE FIELDS AS THE LOW TRACKS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND TRIES TO FIGURE OUT WHICH SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS IT WILL FAVOR. REGARDLESS

OF THE EXACT TRACK AND EVEN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH...IT APPEARS ONLY MINIMAL WARMING WILL OCCUR

IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAW MODEL

TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MORE ON TRACK THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 35 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING

COOLER OVER THE LAST COUPLE CYCLES AND LITTLE DIURNAL RISE SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND DECENT PRECIP RATES.

WITH THAT SAID WILL FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LOW SNOW RATIOS OF NEARLY 8:1 FOR A

PORTION OF THE EVENT AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE SNOW ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING

THE DAYTIME HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL TREND HIGHER IN THE EASTER AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THERMAL PROFILES

CONTINUE TO COOL WITH THE LAKE BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RANGE FROM 2 TO 4

INCHES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER AND WE END UP WITH MORE RAIN MIXING IN.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER NE OHIO/NW PENNSYLVANIA WITH

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WE DONT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW

BELT EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY

AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

[OHweather]

I'm thinking most areas see 2-3" tomorrow during the day...the atmosphere will need to cool a few degrees initially to change the rain to snow. I think that will happen fairly quickly with the dry nature of the airmass the storm is moving into and given the atmosphere will moisten top down, allowing for good evaporational cooling. However, I think the precip will start as a brief period of rain.

Surface temps will probably be hovering between 33-37 during the day tomorrow. So, we will need half decent rates to accumulate.

Most models are printing out over a quarter inch of liquid tomorrow and are indicating a period of moderate to heavy precip is likely in the morning. Between rain on the onset and a warm boundary layer, around 2" seems likely during the day tomorrow given the amount of liquid that will fall. Areas right along the lake and well south of Cleveland might see a tad less due to more mixing or warm boundary layer issues.

Tomorrow evening an inverted trough will hang back over Lake Erie. This will set up convergence over the lake shore from Lorain east and continue to produce light to moderate snow overnight as moisture remains in place and we gradually get cool enough for lake effect. I could see another 2-3" from southern Lorain/northern Medina counties points northeast tomorrow night, for totals of 4-6" in that area and 2-4" for much of CLE's CWA. I expect advisories to fly later today for this event.

[Shsg Falls]

I find it interesting NWS CLE is going against both the GFS and NAM MOS temperatures on Tuesday. They even mentioned it in today's AFD. Both MOS' show CLE air temperature not declining to a level needed for accumulating snow until about 6 p.m. local time. The NAM is even warmer, and both MOS' show <2" of snow for the event at CLE.

It's a complicated temperature profile aloft, both MOS' are quite warm...to rely on evaporational cooling to push up a snowfall forecast is questionable, perhaps? Sometimes the NWP QPF are overdone...time will tell.

Maybe it is just the East Coaster in me, but I remain skeptical of the 2-4" for Tuesday for CLE.

[OHweather]

12/27-28 Snow “storm”

Tricky forecast for tomorrow with relation to precip type…here goes.

This evening, winds will initially be light and skies will be mostly clear. Temps will drop to around 32 early on. Southerly winds will pick back up immediately before the precip starts early tomorrow morning, but it is unclear whether or not temps will rise much above freezing as the precip starts. In addition, dew points at all levels will be well below freezing as a very dry airmass is in place. 850mb temps will start out around +5C before moisture begins moving in, which is much to warm for snow. This pronounced warm layer is apparent on all models. Given how low dews are expected to be, it is reasonable to assume that between strong lift with the initial wave of percip and significant evaporational cooling that the whole column will cool to near freezing as the precip moves in. So, I am expecting a rain to wet snow situation tomorrow morning as the precip moves in, with areas along the lake shore perhaps remaining too warm for snow.

Warm air advection will be ongoing into the early afternoon with a rather brisk southwesterly low to mid level flow. So, as the first wave of moderate to heavy precip moves east and we see a bit of a “dry slot” with lighter precip rates, dynamical cooling weakens and evaporational cooling reaches its full potential we may see a switch back to mainly rain late morning into mid afternoon. I’m expecting around an inch of accumulation with this initial wave of snow during the morning, mainly on grassy surfaces, with less along the lake shore, in the lowest elevations and areas south of a Canton-Youngstown line.

As the phase occurs late morning into the afternoon and the storm begins to intensify to our east, cold air will begin filtering in at the mid levels starting mid afternoon. This will result not only in the column cooling again enough to change rain to snow, but will aid in creating a nice deformation zone that will move through northern OH late afternoon into early evening. I expect snow rates to be moderate and snow to begin sticking first in the higher elevations mid afternoon then all areas by 4-5pm. In all I expect an additional 1-2” through 8pm, for total snow accumulations during the day tomorrow ranging from 1” in the lowest elevations (lake shore, south of Canton-Youngstown) to up to 3” in the higher elevations near Mansfield and then from south of Cleveland east into the Snow Belt.

Tomorrow night models are in good agreement in hanging an inverted trough west into the lower lakes that will slowly shift south. This will result in winds slowly shifting from westerly at 0z to NWrly after 6z. The wind direction will also aid in creating convergence along the lake shore that will slowly shift inland overnight. Although the atmosphere won’t be cold enough for true lake effect until about 6z, this convergence combined with deep synoptic moisture remaining in place much of the night will contribute to an area of enhanced snow from the higher elevations south of Cleveland east through the Snow Belt. The hi-res WRFs are both printing out .25-.5” of additional QPF after 0z Wednesday. All in all, I expect an additional 2-4” in along the aforementioned higher elevations tomorrow night. Snow will be winding down quickly Wednesday as drier air and ridging builds in.

Snow totals will range from 2-7” across the area. The jackpot area will likely be the higher elevations stretching from north-central Ohio east into northeast Ohio as they will be more likely to see snow in the marginal temp situation tomorrow morning into the afternoon and will cash in most on lake enhancement with a NW flow. I believe these areas will see advisory criteria snow fall while other areas see a nuisance snow. The evening rush could be tricky should the deform move in during that time, which appears possible.

My guess:

[NEOH]

12/27-28 Snow “storm”

Tricky forecast for tomorrow with relation to precip type…here goes.

This evening, winds will initially be light and skies will be mostly clear. Temps will drop to around 32 early on. Southerly winds will pick back up immediately before the precip starts early tomorrow morning, but it is unclear whether or not temps will rise much above freezing as the precip starts. In addition, dew points at all levels will be well below freezing as a very dry airmass is in place. 850mb temps will start out around +5C before moisture begins moving in, which is much to warm for snow. This pronounced warm layer is apparent on all models. Given how low dews are expected to be, it is reasonable to assume that between strong lift with the initial wave of percip and significant evaporational cooling that the whole column will cool to near freezing as the precip moves in. So, I am expecting a rain to wet snow situation tomorrow morning as the precip moves in, with areas along the lake shore perhaps remaining too warm for snow.

Warm air advection will be ongoing into the early afternoon with a rather brisk southwesterly low to mid level flow. So, as the first wave of moderate to heavy precip moves east and we see a bit of a “dry slot” with lighter precip rates, dynamical cooling weakens and evaporational cooling reaches its full potential we may see a switch back to mainly rain late morning into mid afternoon. I’m expecting around an inch of accumulation with this initial wave of snow during the morning, mainly on grassy surfaces, with less along the lake shore, in the lowest elevations and areas south of a Canton-Youngstown line.

As the phase occurs late morning into the afternoon and the storm begins to intensify to our east, cold air will begin filtering in at the mid levels starting mid afternoon. This will result not only in the column cooling again enough to change rain to snow, but will aid in creating a nice deformation zone that will move through northern OH late afternoon into early evening. I expect snow rates to be moderate and snow to begin sticking first in the higher elevations mid afternoon then all areas by 4-5pm. In all I expect an additional 1-2” through 8pm, for total snow accumulations during the day tomorrow ranging from 1” in the lowest elevations (lake shore, south of Canton-Youngstown) to up to 3” in the higher elevations near Mansfield and then from south of Cleveland east into the Snow Belt.

Tomorrow night models are in good agreement in hanging an inverted trough west into the lower lakes that will slowly shift south. This will result in winds slowly shifting from westerly at 0z to NWrly after 6z. The wind direction will also aid in creating convergence along the lake shore that will slowly shift inland overnight. Although the atmosphere won’t be cold enough for true lake effect until about 6z, this convergence combined with deep synoptic moisture remaining in place much of the night will contribute to an area of enhanced snow from the higher elevations south of Cleveland east through the Snow Belt. The hi-res WRFs are both printing out .25-.5” of additional QPF after 0z Wednesday. All in all, I expect an additional 2-4” in along the aforementioned higher elevations tomorrow night. Snow will be winding down quickly Wednesday as drier air and ridging builds in.

Snow totals will range from 2-7” across the area. The jackpot area will likely be the higher elevations stretching from north-central Ohio east into northeast Ohio as they will be more likely to see snow in the marginal temp situation tomorrow morning into the afternoon and will cash in most on lake enhancement with a NW flow. I believe these areas will see advisory criteria snow fall while other areas see a nuisance snow. The evening rush could be tricky should the deform move in during that time, which appears possible.

My guess:

Great analysis, and good call on snowfall amounts. Definitely going to be tricky with temps so marginal. This time of year I would normally lean toward colder temps but the SW flow is going to keep things too warm initially outside of the higher elevations. Best bet for higher accums is if the storm can wrap up a little quicker which is possible.

[OHweather]

Great analysis, and good call on snowfall amounts. Definitely going to be tricky with temps so marginal. This time of year I would normally lean toward colder temps but the SW flow is going to keep things too warm initially outside of the higher elevations. Best bet for higher accums is if the storm can wrap up a little quicker which is possible.

It is certainly possible...there have been a few good posts about how the storm is evolving right now in the main thread on it.

The storm is already negatively tilted with a 100 kt jet streak currently rounding the base of the trough. The Pacific shortwave is diving due SE right now on water vapor imagery, and there is a huge area of upper level lift between the right entrance portion of a 110kt jet streak over the Great Lakes and the jet streak rounding the base of the trough over the deep south/northern GOM. This storm may certainly wrap up quicker than forecasted.

[dilly84]

Damn Euro is so close in CMH

TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.1 -1.0 1009 97 100 0.17 553 546

TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.2 -1.3 1001 99 99 0.37 540 539

WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.0 -4.7 1004 95 99 0.18 535 533

WED 06Z 28-DEC -1.0 -6.9 1010 85 45 0.04 536 527

CLE

TUE 12Z 27-DEC 2.2 0.2 1009 80 92 0.04 552 544

TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.5 -2.6 1001 96 98 0.27 542 541

WED 00Z 28-DEC 0.9 -4.6 1000 98 100 0.19 533 533

WED 06Z 28-DEC -1.1 -7.4 1006 82 80 0.10 531 526

[ArmyGreens]

Sweet! Changeover to snow right now although flakes are an average size.

[NEOH]

Mix coming down now. Like just about every storm this year... this one looks jucier than expected. Hopefully we can transition quicker so not much precip is wasted. The defo band combined with lake enhanced snow should make for interesting evening/night. Inland areas should see the heaviest snows with strong NW winds.

[NEOH]

Wow, the WRF is showing a lot of precip for the eastern suburbs on east.

[dta1984]

WRF seems to have a bullseye in eastern cuy county, hopefully that pans out! Been snowing off and on here this morning, but nothing sticking yet. NWS forecast says majority comes tonight, so we'll see.

[NEOH]

WRF seems to have a bullseye in eastern cuy county, hopefully that pans out! Been snowing off and on here this morning, but nothing sticking yet. NWS forecast says majority comes tonight, so we'll see.

There have been some bursts of heavy snow in Chagrin. Not really sticking though. We should see the precip shield fill in and intensify later this afternoon. If the WRF verifies they are going to be some decent totals.

[wxdudemike]

For anyone in Columbus or western/SW Ohio I have my latest article up including map:

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-columbus/rain-to-snow-this-afternoon

Always appreciate hits Still rain here but front just came through 30 seconds ago with a big gust of wind.

[dta1984]

Snow is now starting to stick to grass and trees. Steady moderate snow with large flakes the past few hours. Finally looking very wintry outside!

[NEOH]

Still RN/SN mix in Chagrin. Huge flakes with the heavier burts and the ground whitens up. We'll probably see a flip to pure snow in the next hour or so... then we are off to the races.

[NEOH]

Snow is now starting to stick to grass and trees. Steady moderate snow with large flakes the past few hours. Finally looking very wintry outside!

Good to hear... If you are still in Mayfield Heights I live close to your location (about a mile away) by the 271 Cedar-Brainard exit.

[wxdudemike]

All snow on the east side of Cincinnati now...Doesn't look like a ton to our west though.

[kevin83]

still rain in fairlawn