Lets Talk Winter! Ohio valley and surrounding States

[buckeye]

Yeah, you definitely did not want to know.

There were a total of 21 winters that had less than 2" by January 1st. Here are the stats:

-18 of them were warmer than normal. The coldest, 1965-66, had a mean of 29.4, which is about 2 degrees below normal. Nothing special. 5 of the 21 had a mean temp over 35 degrees, and 1879-80 had a mean of 40, which is the 3rd warmest winter on record. I guess the good news is that #1 and #2 are not part of the 21 seasons.

-Only one winter of the 21, 1905-06, had above normal snowfall, and that was only because of a record snowy March that dropped over 25". No other winter had more than 25" for an entire season. In fact, 9 of the 21 had less than 15", 4 had less than 10" and 3 had less than 5". This represents more than half of the winters for the past 133 years that featured single-digit seasonal snowfall.

I bet you're glad you asked.

thanks...

i think

[buckeye]

hmmm, i just checked out the euro and it looks like it wants to bring ohio a late xmas snow....especially southeast ohio. Maybe something to watch afterall in this disaster of a pattern.

[dilly84]

hmmm, i just checked out the euro and it looks like it wants to bring ohio a late xmas snow....especially southeast ohio. Maybe something to watch afterall in this disaster of a pattern.

Ive posted a few times about it in the other Ohio thread

[NEOH]

Ive posted a few times about it in the other Ohio thread

There's probably some confusion between Steve's Mansfield north/Non LES snow discussion thread and central/southern ohio thread. Good to see you guys posting though.

[OHweather]

Nice surprise here, just woke up to a half inch on the ground with moderate snow still falling...

The forecast from CLE assumes a changeover to rain already occurred, but with a high pressure just to our north filtering in dry air at the lower levels it may take a few hours for the northern row or two of counties along the lake shore to changeover to all rain. We'll see how much farther north the precip can get, but areas seeing snow now may squeeze out an inch or so.

[NEOH]

JB's thoughts on January FWIW - "January for much of the nation from the plains east, south of I-80 may be warmest since 2006. Conversely, pac northwest coldest in years"

[jbcmh81]

JB's thoughts on January FWIW - "January for much of the nation from the plains east, south of I-80 may be warmest since 2006. Conversely, pac northwest coldest in years"

I can't remember the last time he had a really good seasonal or monthly call, but we'll see. I hope he's wrong, as that would destroy my outlook.

[Trent]

JB's thoughts on January FWIW - "January for much of the nation from the plains east, south of I-80 may be warmest since 2006. Conversely, pac northwest coldest in years"

It's JB, so prepare for epic cold and snow!

I think the west side of Cleveland is leading the state in the largest snow storm of the season department, which is a nice consolation prize. I give it an 80% chance I've already had my largest storm for the season.

[Shsg Falls]

Not too much to talk about, but it has been so gloomy this week! I believe this is our cloudiest month from a climatological perspective.

NWS CLE is forecasting "partly sunny" on Thursday (looks like our only chance for sun anytime soon), however per the ECMWF that seems a bit optimistic. The ground is so saturated looks like the inversion will remain in place after Wednesday's low passes. The GFS MOS shows "OV" for the next 72 hours.

Sometimes I wonder what the NWS is looking at...

[Trent]

Not too much to talk about, but it has been so gloomy this week! I believe this is our cloudiest month from a climatological perspective.

NWS CLE is forecasting "partly sunny" on Thursday (looks like our only chance for sun anytime soon), however per the ECMWF that seems a bit optimistic. The ground is so saturated looks like the inversion will remain in place after Wednesday's low passes. The GFS MOS shows "OV" for the next 72 hours.

Sometimes I wonder what the NWS is looking at...

Yeah, there's definitely storm potential Thursday night that's been slowly getting hinted at. Possibly a 2-4" synoptic event.

[B-Rent]

Thoughts on remaning this thread: "Let's talk that mild transition between Fall and Spring where everything dies!"?

[B-Rent]

The IndyStar is keeping hope alive for us....

So far, less than an inch of snow has fallen in Indianapolis. By this time last year, 11 inches of snow had fallen; an additional 5.6 inches fell by the end of December 2010.

As winter progresses, Koch said, Indianapolis could see significant snowfall or ice with a little help from La Niña. That means the city could see a snowy Super Bowl on Feb. 5.

...

As a result, Indianapolis this winter season likely will meet or exceed the 25.9-inch average for snowfall, Koch said

http://www.indystar.com/article/20111221/LOCAL/112210331/White-Christmas-Indianapolis-your-dreams?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|IndyStar.com

[AppsRunner]

Well, Merry Christmas. I'm done for the next 10 days. Nothing to track, not even worth watching the models.

[NEOH]

Beautiful April, I mean late December morning out there. 51 degrees with periods of heavy rain. But wait, it's not even winter yet, it doesn't start until tomorrow . This pattern is miserable.

I noticed my hosta's have new growth sprouting out

Glass is half empty right now with models showing nothing but relatively mild weather for the forseeable future.

[NEOH]

I can't remember the last time he had a really good seasonal or monthly call, but we'll see. I hope he's wrong, as that would destroy my outlook.

I haven't followed JB in quite some time so i have no idea how his monthly calls have been. As much as I would like him to be wrong, some of the best LR forecasters on here are in agreement. Who knows, everyone could be wrong, but the liklihood of that is not good.

[Trent]

The precipitation train continues, of course without the intersection of cold air. Cleveland is now a full 10 inches above the previous record wettest year. 64 inches and counting ...

I should look up the last time CLE's yearly precipitation in inches exceeded the snowfall in inches.

[buckeye]

I recall forecasts from sunday calling for the rain thru wednesday than dry from there on out. Now, already we have what looks to be only a 24 hr break before the next southern system cranks out of the south with every model run looking wetter and wetter. Just unreal. I have a suspicion that when and if we do flip to a much colder pattern, we dry out.

[NEOH]

I recall forecasts from sunday calling for the rain thru wednesday than dry from there on out. Now, already we have what looks to be only a 24 hr break before the next southern system cranks out of the south with every model run looking wetter and wetter. Just unreal. I have a suspicion that when and if we do flip to a much colder pattern, we dry out.

That's been a concern of mine. Trent and I talked about it a few times. Wouldn't that be a kick in the shorts.

[pondo1000]

That's been a concern of mine. Trent and I talked about it a few times. Wouldn't that be a kick in the shorts.

Yep. A change in the pattern certainly would probably mean we don't get these rain/moisture trains anymore. It would be a huge disappointment.

[jbcmh81]

I recall forecasts from sunday calling for the rain thru wednesday than dry from there on out. Now, already we have what looks to be only a 24 hr break before the next southern system cranks out of the south with every model run looking wetter and wetter. Just unreal. I have a suspicion that when and if we do flip to a much colder pattern, we dry out.

I don't know, we still have La Nina climo on our side, which is almost always consistently wet for the OV. I don't think we'll necessarily be dry, but as always, whether we have cold air around when we have a storm is the real issue.

[buckeye]

Yep. A change in the pattern certainly would probably mean we don't get these rain/moisture trains anymore. It would be a huge disappointment.

hey neighbor! Haven't seen you post in awhile...good to see you back.

[wxdudemike]

CVG:

TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.2 -0.3 1018 88 100 0.12 558 544

WED 00Z 28-DEC 0.7 -3.3 1014 99 97 0.46 550 539

WED 06Z 28-DEC 0.5 -4.5 1014 96 87 0.04 549 537

WED 12Z 28-DEC -0.2 -3.1 1017 95 73 0.00 549 536

CMH gets about .30 of snow on the 12z Euro next week. I'll believe it when I see it

[pondo1000]

hey neighbor! Haven't seen you post in awhile...good to see you back.

Hah, yeah. I was thinking the same about you. LOL. Not much to post about right now. I have posted a couple of times on the main discussion board asking if anyone has an update on what Steve D. has been saying lately. There was a video he had about a 3 weeks ago talking about a pattern change coming around Dec .18th-20th b/c of the QBO? (I think) and it was going negative so that means Physics says things have to change. It was interesting, but I wonder what happened?!

Have a Merry Christmas! Here's hoping we have some snow to post about at some point this winter.

[NEOH]

CLE is now at 64.25" for the year. 26" above normal. It will be interesting to see if we can get to 65". An article in the paper mentioned that CLE NWS indicated it is highly unlikely we will get to 65". I wouldn't be surprised given that just about every storm has over produced in terms of precip and there are 8 days left in the month.

[Shsg Falls]

NWS BUF had some great thoughts regarding our upper air pattern in Wednesday evening's discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion

. long term /sunday through wednesday/...

as advertised in previous long range discussions ... what

amplification will be found in the long wave pattern at the

beginning of the pattern will give way a low amplitude pacific flow.

again ... this is an example of the lack of blocking within the

northern hemisphere.

the continuing progressive flow is probably best depicted by the

persistence of the icelandic low. this has corresponded to a very

stubborn and strongly positive nao ... one that has basically been in

place since late summer. the ongoing phase of the current nao is

probably as strongly positive as last years (nov - dec 2010) was

strongly negative. this is likely to be more responsible for the

warmth and dearth of snow so far this season than the effects from

the current la nina.

in any case ... this will translate into above normal temps for the

bulk of this long range period with generally insignificant sfc

systems over our region.

[NEOH]

Just took a look back at CLE's thoughts on the Winter pattern -

WINTER 2011-'12. La Nina is back. and is expected to continue for much of the winter. La Nina often brings cold and wet weather to the Great Lakes. We can expect an active storm track and frequent outbreaks of cold weather, similar to last year. This may be especially true for the first half of the winter.

Some forecasts for the upcoming winter speculate that the winter weather will be "brutal". A La Nina winter pattern is not always "brutal" for the Lake Erie area. Some of the wet weather systems will pass off to our west and we will be on the "warm" side of the system (mostly rain not snow). Some will pass to our south (and miss us altogether). The La Nina pattern can be trumped by other short term patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. These two patterns often bring our really cold weather outbreaks.

All that being said, the pattern we have been in for about the last year has brought plenty of stormy weather and more of the same can be expected. Large and deepening low pressure systems are likely and each one could bring the potential for a big snow. That is the wild card this winter - that we probably have the potential for more snow storms than normal. Just one or two big snow storms on top of our typical winter weather and suddenly the winter seems a lot tougher (or maybe it is just me getting older).

Ouch.

[Shsg Falls]

Just took a look back at CLE's thoughts on the Winter pattern -

WINTER 2011-'12. La Nina is back. and is expected to continue for much of the winter. La Nina often brings cold and wet weather to the Great Lakes. We can expect an active storm track and frequent outbreaks of cold weather, similar to last year. This may be especially true for the first half of the winter.

Some forecasts for the upcoming winter speculate that the winter weather will be "brutal". A La Nina winter pattern is not always "brutal" for the Lake Erie area. Some of the wet weather systems will pass off to our west and we will be on the "warm" side of the system (mostly rain not snow). Some will pass to our south (and miss us altogether). The La Nina pattern can be trumped by other short term patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. These two patterns often bring our really cold weather outbreaks.

All that being said, the pattern we have been in for about the last year has brought plenty of stormy weather and more of the same can be expected. Large and deepening low pressure systems are likely and each one could bring the potential for a big snow. That is the wild card this winter - that we probably have the potential for more snow storms than normal. Just one or two big snow storms on top of our typical winter weather and suddenly the winter seems a lot tougher (or maybe it is just me getting older).

Ouch.

I remember reading this too at the beginning of the season. With that information and dwelling on last year's snowfall, we decided to buy a Subaru Outback AWD and purchase a contract with snowplow services.

Both were money well spent, thus far. NOT.

[Trent]

Just took a look back at CLE's thoughts on the Winter pattern -

WINTER 2011-'12. La Nina is back. and is expected to continue for much of the winter. La Nina often brings cold and wet weather to the Great Lakes. We can expect an active storm track and frequent outbreaks of cold weather, similar to last year. This may be especially true for the first half of the winter.

Some forecasts for the upcoming winter speculate that the winter weather will be "brutal". A La Nina winter pattern is not always "brutal" for the Lake Erie area. Some of the wet weather systems will pass off to our west and we will be on the "warm" side of the system (mostly rain not snow). Some will pass to our south (and miss us altogether). The La Nina pattern can be trumped by other short term patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. These two patterns often bring our really cold weather outbreaks.

All that being said, the pattern we have been in for about the last year has brought plenty of stormy weather and more of the same can be expected. Large and deepening low pressure systems are likely and each one could bring the potential for a big snow. That is the wild card this winter - that we probably have the potential for more snow storms than normal. Just one or two big snow storms on top of our typical winter weather and suddenly the winter seems a lot tougher (or maybe it is just me getting older).

Ouch.

I will withhold judgement until March. But it is kind of funny that there's been hardly a noteworthy storm anywhere in the Midwest as of late.

I think it's ridiculous that today is December 22nd and we have a low pressure riding well to our south and east and it's a rain storm for lack of cold air. This, in a typical winter at this time frame, would be a nice advisory event for Northeast Ohio with warnings along and south US 30.

This winter still has a lot going for it. The la nina pattern is historically decent and lake temperatures will help big time once things get active in a cold pattern.

[Shsg Falls]

The persistent features causing our bland weather are very evident on this loop:

http://www.meteo.psu...0/5dayloop.html

The relatively zonal hemispheric flow (even across the Pacific Ocean)

The persistent Icelandic low

No blocking features

Polar vortex stationary in interior Canada

I had to laugh when I saw the 10-day 00Z ECMWF:

That's a +10 C 850-temp over Cleveland at 00Z January 2nd!

Here are the GFS OP and ECMWF ensemble mean for the same time:

The ECMWF ensemble and GFS are both about -5 for a 850 temp, the GFS trying to develop a ridge out west and amplify the pattern a bit. Still very bland weather with no polar air, but whether it will be 35 degrees or 65 degrees to ring in the New Year is open for debate.

[NEOH]

I will withhold judgement until March. But it is kind of funny that there's been hardly a noteworthy storm anywhere in the Midwest as of late.

I think it's ridiculous that today is December 22nd and we have a low pressure riding well to our south and east and it's a rain storm for lack of cold air. This, in a typical winter at this time frame, would be a nice advisory event for Northeast Ohio with warnings along and south US 30.

This winter still has a lot going for it. The la nina pattern is historically decent and lake temperatures will help big time once things get active in a cold pattern.

That is the good thing. An open and relatively warm lake will help.