OHweather Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Absolutely dumping, 5.2" here now. Looks like a small convergence band right along the western lakeshore. Winds are very light so you could continue to get dumped on by that relatively small band. The city of Cleveland (or parts of it) will likely see right around the 6" warning criteria by the time all is said and done. In CLE's defense, no one expected half a foot in parts of Cuyahoga county when the day started. But the forecast for "around an inch" of snow seemed a little suspect...enough instability for LES, coupled with deep synoptic moisture and a light WNW flow off the lake is a no brainier...they should have been more alert for something like the enhancement that occurred today. We discussed the possibility for a 2, 3, or even 4" event in this thread, it certainly appeared possible. It became apparent when the convergence band set up by 10am and really intensified through 11am that the 1" forecast would bust fast. All CLE had to say was "some Christmas shopping snow!" at 9:53am. The sad thing is I like the met who wrote that late morning update (Jim Kosarik), usually writes half decent AFD's. 2.2" in Reminderville. Been up 21 hours, time to sleep for a couple before doing it all over tonight and tomorrow. Snow made the day go by faster for sure though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The snow is really only showing up on the composite reflectivity. I never would have thought I'd get 6" but here we are, definitely lightening up, so doubtful for more accums: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 With nearly calm winds, snow was almost pouring down about an hour ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Lake Effect FTW! ...CUYAHOGA COUNTY... CLEVELAND-W SIDE 6.2 737 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND-KAMMS CORN 5.5 733 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND-EDGEWATER 5.1 727 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 5.0 804 PM 12/17 LYNDHURST 4.5 737 PM 12/17 CHAGRIN FALLS 4.0 736 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND-OLD BROOKL 4.0 726 PM 12/17 EUCLID 3.5 825 PM 12/17 GARFIELD HTS 3.5 757 PM 12/17 1 SSE PARMA 3.0 756 PM 12/17 SOLON 2.6 734 PM 12/17 BROADVIEW HTS 2.2 738 PM 12/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Lake Effect FTW! ...CUYAHOGA COUNTY... CLEVELAND-W SIDE 6.2 737 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND-KAMMS CORN 5.5 733 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND-EDGEWATER 5.1 727 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 5.0 804 PM 12/17 LYNDHURST 4.5 737 PM 12/17 CHAGRIN FALLS 4.0 736 PM 12/17 CLEVELAND-OLD BROOKL 4.0 726 PM 12/17 EUCLID 3.5 825 PM 12/17 GARFIELD HTS 3.5 757 PM 12/17 1 SSE PARMA 3.0 756 PM 12/17 SOLON 2.6 734 PM 12/17 BROADVIEW HTS 2.2 738 PM 12/17 We went to a wedding reception in Lakewood from our home in Chagrin Falls. CF was snowing lightly when we left around 5:30pm, roads were still pretty good. As we headed up I-77 northbound it got progressively worse and worse until we got to the city and it was snowing heavily, pretty bad, though I've seen worse. But I'd say Lakewood ended up with a good 5 - 6". Here in CF I'd say we got maybe 3". I didn't check radar or anything but I'd have to guess based purely on what I saw that this LES event hit downtown and inner parts of Cleveland more than the traditional snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Amazing how off the CLE NWS were. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 What happened in Cleveland and how NWS Cleveland handled it is exactly why people have a strong distrust, if not vitriol hate, for the weatherman. And even when the observation came in of, at the very least, a high impact Advisory event for Cuyahoga County, NWS Cleveland still failed to grasp it. No benefit of the doubt for them this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 What happened in Cleveland and how NWS Cleveland handled it is exactly why people have a strong distrust, if not vitriol hate, for the weatherman. And even when the observation came in of, at the very least, a high impact Advisory event for Cuyahoga County, NWS Cleveland still failed to grasp it. No benefit of the doubt for them this time. I understand them not having 3-6" in the forecast say at 8am, I know I wouldn't have. But the issue is, this band effectively hit the most populated portion of their CWA. I'm sure at some point between 11am and 8pm when the snow reports came out that between their snow spotters and convective ones that someone called in and reported more than the 1" forecast they had out. Heck, they saw 4 hrs strait of heavy snow at the WFO. It's their handling of the forecast after they most likely had info saying that we were getting a surprise heavy snow that we can fairly criticize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I understand them not having 3-6" in the forecast say at 8am, I know I wouldn't have. But the issue is, this band effectively hit the most populated portion of their CWA. I'm sure at some point between 11am and 8pm when the snow reports came out that between their snow spotters and convective ones that someone called in and reported more than the 1" forecast they had out. Heck, they saw 4 hrs strait of heavy snow at the WFO. It's their handling of the forecast after they most likely had info saying that we were getting a surprise heavy snow that we can fairly criticize. I'd like to think when they started getting in the observations from the airport where they were continually in the vicinity of 1SM for the visibility they would have adjusted the forecast accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I'd like to think when they started getting in the observations from the airport where they were continually in the vicinity of 1SM for the visibility they would have adjusted the forecast accordingly. Agreed. There were numerous signs that a classic lake enhanced convergence band was setting up by mid to late morning and no signs of weakening. I hate to Monday morning QB like this but when a warning criteria snow is measured in a city as large as Cleveland with the forecast calling for around an inch throughout, even as snow was falling at up to an inch an hour it is fair to ask what was missed. CLE seems to struggle with these surprise W-E bands, see last December's daytime downtown 10-12" thumping as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Agreed. There were numerous signs that a classic lake enhanced convergence band was setting up by mid to late morning and no signs of weakening. I hate to Monday morning QB like this but when a warning criteria snow is measured in a city as large as Cleveland with the forecast calling for around an inch throughout, even as snow was falling at up to an inch an hour it is fair to ask what was missed. CLE seems to struggle with these surprise W-E bands, see last December's daytime downtown 10-12" thumping as an example. Yeah. I do not fault one bit for not forecasting these amounts on Friday or even Saturday morning as nothing suggested that borderline warning criteria snow would fall over such a populated area. However, some of the media outlets on Friday were calling for 1-4" area wide which was obviously the better forecast. We actually discussed this at my office Friday morning how some outlets were calling for a nice Saturday with a light morning dusting, while others were calling for a more grim forecast. There really isn't an excuse for an advisory not to have been issued between noon and 2 pm. The heavy snow began in a band from about my house, through downtown, and out into the Heights Suburbs, with 3" already occurring in the east side suburbs by late morning. This in itself, should have lent to an advisory, especially with the radar showing no signs of the band dissipating. The official observations at the airport are the biggest kicker. I wonder if the idea of an advisory/warning was even tossed around. The AFDs from yesterday do not even suggest the idea and sadly the short term forecasts issued yesterday do not even reflect actual conditions. I just don't understand how an AFD issued at 4 pm yesterday could fail to mention that KCLE, the location that they are at, has had 4 hours of snow with visibilites under a quarter mile? Compare this to the non event last Friday where winter weather advisories were changed to lake effect snow advisories with a 6-10 hour lull in between very low impact 1-2" wet snow. These surprise snows though are very dangerous, and I'm sure a lot of the public is/was angered yesterday. A lot of people won't drive in snowstorms and a lot of people were caught driving in weather that they never would have ventured into had they known it was there. I am just envisioning all the frantic people who came out of movie theaters or shopping malls yesterday afternoon and flipped through radio stations only to find regurgitated NWS forecasts for "under and inch" The other problem without issuing advisories is that generally no advisory snow = general lack of full force plowing. By the time the call tree and city/county/state plow trucks are staffed for these surprise events, the damage has been done. There has always been a heavy distrust for weathermen in Cleveland with yesterday only fueling the perception. This snow season has unfortunately started on a very bitter note for JQ Public just as it did in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 For whatever reason NWS CLE didn't want to believe there was going to be a big snow yesterday. Here is the TAF history from yesterday afternoon and evening: FT 17/12/2011 22:04-> KCLE 172204Z 1722/1824 29008KT 1/4SM SN FZFG BKN007 OVC012 FM172300 26006KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN BR BKN007 OVC012 FM180000 24006KT 4SM -SN OVC012 FM180200 25006KT P6SM OVC020 FM181400 24008KT P6SM OVC025= FT 17/12/2011 20:07-> KCLE 172007Z 1720/1824 29008KT 1/4SM SN FZFG BKN007 OVC012 FM172200 26006KT 1SM -SHSN BR SCT007 OVC012 TEMPO 1722/1724 2SM -SHSN BKN007 FM180000 24006KT 4SM -SN OVC012 FM181400 24008KT P6SM OVC025= FT 17/12/2011 17:39-> TAF KCLE 171739Z 1718/1824 26008KT 3/4SM -SN OVC009 FM172000 25006KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN BR BKN010 OVC020 TEMPO 1720/1724 3SM -SHSN SCT010 OVC020 FM180000 24006KT 5SM -SN SCT012 OVC020 FM181400 24008KT P6SM OVC025= FT 17/12/2011 16:45-> KCLE 171645Z 1717/1818 26006KT 1SM -SHSN BR BKN009 OVC025 FM171900 25006KT 3SM -SHSN BR SCT010 OVC025 TEMPO 1719/1723 1 1/2SM -SHSN OVC010 FM180000 24006KT 6SM -SN SCT012 OVC020 FM181400 24008KT P6SM OVC025= Seems like they weren't on board with the moderate snow until 3:07 p.m. Per the METARs from CLE it looks like the forecast began to bust at 12:05 p.m. when the visibility went to 1/2SM for the first time. They didn't amend the TAF to show the moderate/heavy snow until 3:07 p.m. (by this time the significant part of the event was going on for more than 3 hours). I wonder how many flights had to divert from CLE yesterday? At least it was a Saturday, a day off for most people and Hopkins' lightest day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 It's really frustrating to see such a waste of potential: And we've seen this over and over again in the past month or so. BIG trough which could spin up a decent surface low for a snowstorm here. BUT there isn't enough of a high out in the Atlantic to force the trough to go negative. So it stays positive therefore can't spin up much of anything. If that bad boy were to go negative then WATCH OUT right over Ohio. Unfortunately that doesn't fit out weather pattern at all so I wouldn't hold my breath... The 0z Euro has several shots of light snow Friday through Sunday. It probably won't amount to anything, but at least we could have some flakes flying around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 It's really frustrating to see such a waste of potential: And we've seen this over and over again in the past month or so. BIG trough which could spin up a decent surface low for a snowstorm here. BUT there isn't enough of a high out in the Atlantic to force the trough to go negative. So it stays positive therefore can't spin up much of anything. If that bad boy were to go negative then WATCH OUT right over Ohio. Unfortunately that doesn't fit out weather pattern at all so I wouldn't hold my breath... The 0z Euro has several shots of light snow Friday through Sunday. It probably won't amount to anything, but at least we could have some flakes flying around Christmas. I wouldn't mind a few flakes. Even after yesterday im still in take what we get mode. We'll see how long that lasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I wouldn't mind a few flakes. Even after yesterday im still in take what we get mode. We'll see how long that lasts we'll probably be in take what we can get mode the rest of the winter. i wouldn't be surprised to see something spin up around the christmas time frame... still a long ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 ECMWF gets really active. Gets most of southern OH involved with the wave @ 120hr, than a nice storm develops around 228hr. Nothing more than a glimmer of hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Went thru my anals/blog and I can't really say they haven't been good thus far on warm fall-early winter http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/11/analogue-yearsmild-or-warm-novembermild.html They reflected temps above normal Nov-Dec with most cold n snow mid-late season..have to see if it verifies. Since the snowfall ranges retracted closer to norm went normal to above. I'm thinking of updating temps however to around norm to slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 ECMWF gets really active. Gets most of southern OH involved with the wave @ 120hr, than a nice storm develops around 228hr. Nothing more than a glimmer of hope though. At least it is not looking like a total disaster at this point. If only the pattern would slow down a bit so one of the waves can dig a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Snow cover is surprisingly holding steady. I think the next time frame to watch is Monday/Tuesday for any more snow, especially LES and lake enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talaub Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Their office is located on the west side of the airport (near NASA). They are located just off of a taxiway. They have windows facing the two main runways. Evidently they didn't notice the lack of noise or building vibration (if you work on an airport you'll know what I mean!) when at one point (mid-afternoon if I recall correctly) all three runways were closed simultaneously for at least 25 minutes... I wonder how many flights had to divert from CLE yesterday? At least it was a Saturday, a day off for most people and Hopkins' lightest day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Snow cover is surprisingly holding steady. I think the next time frame to watch is Monday/Tuesday for any more snow, especially LES and lake enhanced. Nah... the appsrunner christmas storm is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Loving the 0z Euro! GFS is still a little different...So it will be interesting to see how this plays out. At least we have something to track. Only talking about maybe 1 to AT MOST 3 inches (likely less) but it's the best we've got so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 All I want to see is a pattern change. Who cares about storm that are doomed to be melted away 2 days later. Sent from my ADR6425LVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 All I want to see is a pattern change. Who cares about storm that are doomed to be melted away 2 days later. Sent from my ADR6425LVW Probably 99.9% of the people on American Wx. At this point it doesn't look like the winter for sustained snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z Euro is more strung out with the trough and takes away the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Nah... the appsrunner christmas storm is on the way. lol don't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Probably 99.9% of the people on American Wx. At this point it doesn't look like the winter for sustained snowcover. Hah. Which might not be so bad for these parts. The 6" that fell on the west side of town Saturday is a distant memory, it was incredible to watch how quickly it melted from 10 am - 2pm today. But, if we have a more mild winter with a mediocre quick cold shot every week, you can bet many more scenarios just like this past Saturday will unfold. Of course, they won't last long on the ground, but at least it keeps you on your toes because chasing/tracking the widespread 6-12" system snows around these parts hasn't been so stellar the past couple seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey guys, just throwing this out there, but for those in and around Columbus, I have daily weather and all kinds of stats from June 1878 through the present. So if anyone is interested in any of that information, just let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey guys, just throwing this out there, but for those in and around Columbus, I have daily weather and all kinds of stats from June 1878 through the present. So if anyone is interested in any of that information, just let me know. I haven't been posting and reading a lot here lately so you may have already done something like this. But it would be interesting to see what winters turn out like in cmh that have under 2" of snowfall by Jan1st. not sure if i want to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I haven't been posting and reading a lot here lately so you may have already done something like this. But it would be interesting to see what winters turn out like in cmh that have under 2" of snowfall by Jan1st. not sure if i want to know... Yeah, you definitely did not want to know. There were a total of 21 winters that had less than 2" by January 1st. Here are the stats: -18 of them were warmer than normal. The coldest, 1965-66, had a mean of 29.4, which is about 2 degrees below normal. Nothing special. 5 of the 21 had a mean temp over 35 degrees, and 1879-80 had a mean of 40, which is the 3rd warmest winter on record. I guess the good news is that #1 and #2 are not part of the 21 seasons. -Only one winter of the 21, 1905-06, had above normal snowfall, and that was only because of a record snowy March that dropped over 25". No other winter had more than 25" for an entire season. In fact, 9 of the 21 had less than 15", 4 had less than 10" and 3 had less than 5". This represents more than half of the winters for the past 133 years that featured single-digit seasonal snowfall. I bet you're glad you asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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