hazwoper Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I had to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I had to do it Mmm, cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I had to do it Thanks for doing it; that would be quite a storm for November if it gets cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 1953 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 we are far overdue for a big november snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I bring this up every year and no one ever listens but what the hell I'll try again. That map shows the 1000-500 mb thickness at a given time, specifically 11/7 at 0z. But the QPF is the total of the 12-hour period ending at 11/7 0z, which means that in reality you have rain followed by cold air rushing in as the storm departs. That's one of the many common errors when looking at forecasts in 12-hour intervals. Oh and of course the obligatory for posting a 300+ hour GFS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I bring this up every year and no one ever listens but what the hell I'll try again. That map shows the 1000-500 mb thickness at a given time, specifically 11/7 at 0z. But the QPF is the total of the 12-hour period ending at 11/7 0z, which means that in reality you have rain followed by cold air rushing in as the storm departs. That's one of the many common errors when looking at forecasts in 12-hour intervals. Oh and of course the obligatory for posting a 300+ hour GFS map. He should get a x2 weenie tag for making it a separate thread! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I bring this up every year and no one ever listens but what the hell I'll try again. That map shows the 1000-500 mb thickness at a given time, specifically 11/7 at 0z. But the QPF is the total of the 12-hour period ending at 11/7 0z, which means that in reality you have rain followed by cold air rushing in as the storm departs. That's one of the many common errors when looking at forecasts in 12-hour intervals. Oh and of course the obligatory for posting a 300+ hour GFS map. Why don't you look at the actual gridded data before copying and pasting talking points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 I bring this up every year and no one ever listens but what the hell I'll try again. That map shows the 1000-500 mb thickness at a given time, specifically 11/7 at 0z. But the QPF is the total of the 12-hour period ending at 11/7 0z, which means that in reality you have rain followed by cold air rushing in as the storm departs. That's one of the many common errors when looking at forecasts in 12-hour intervals. Oh and of course the obligatory for posting a 300+ hour GFS map. Perhaps you should look at the previous 12 hours AND the next 12 hours before posting. I know it is 300 hours out, which is why I posted a thread called "1st FANTASY Storm Thread" fan·ta·syplay_w2("F0033300") (fnt-s, -z) n. pl. fan·ta·sies 1. The creative imagination; unrestrained fancy. See Synonyms at imagination.2. Something, such as an invention, that is a creation of the fancy.3. A capricious or fantastic idea; a conceit.4. a. Fiction characterized by highly fanciful or supernatural elements.b. An example of such fiction.5. An imagined event or sequence of mental images, such as a daydream, usually fulfilling a wish or psychological need.6. An unrealistic or improbable supposition.7. Music See fantasia.8. A coin issued especially by a questionable authority and not intended for use as currency.9. Obsolete A hallucination.tr.v. fan·ta·sied, fan·ta·sy·ing, fan·ta·sies To imagine; visualize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 oh....and this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I was hoping to get in before the first "overdue" post... The GFS must need the tips, she is starting the burlesque show early this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 oh....and this too Oh man, I am sooo going to need to clean off my monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 oh....and this too , the GFS seems to be becoming a snow pretty early this year,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 oh....and this too Posting the weenie snow accum maps for 300 hours out is not going to help your case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Oh and Analog, the first 1.48" of the 2.68" total is clearly too warm (at KPHL) with 850's of +5 and +3. Sure the 850's drop to -5 for the last interval of heavy precip, but again I revert back to my original point that we don't know what's happening during that 12-hour interval. And yeah you could say this will be an elevation snow and blah blah blah but let's face it, it's a 300-hour prog on the GFS that will be gone in an hour and a half when the 18z comes out, so don't cream your panties over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Oh and Analog, the first 1.48" of the 2.68" total is clearly too warm (at KPHL) with 850's of +5 and +3. Sure the 850's drop to -5 for the last interval of heavy precip, but again I revert back to my original point that we don't know what's happening during that 12-hour interval. And yeah you could say this will be an elevation snow and blah blah blah but let's face it, it's a 300-hour prog on the GFS that will be gone in an hour and a half when the 18z comes out, so don't cream your panties over it. Thunder.....you are such a tool. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What about FANTASY do you not understand? I even put the definition above in my post. But, I guess the education at Valpo is lacking. Didn't you go to Bensalem High? I certainly know education is lacking at that institution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thunder.....you are such a tool. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But, I guess the education at Valpo is lacking. Nope things here are fine, thanks for asking. Didn't you go to Bensalem High? I certainly know education is lacking at that institution. No. And yes, that is precisely why I did not. If you want to post a fantasy storm, do it in the banter thread, or start a thread for all fantasy storms the entire season (although that's really a waste of AMWX server space imho) I proved that even in your fantasy it's 75% rain. Sure you can claim that it's a fantasy, but I mean this is a weather board not a day-dreaming board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Everyone must be bored to be getting into an argument over the 300 hour GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thunder.....you are such a tool. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What about FANTASY do you not understand? I even put the definition above in my post. But, I guess the education at Valpo is lacking. Didn't you go to Bensalem High? I certainly know education is lacking at that institution. LOL that's basically the point, I NEVER said it was going to happen. BUT if we're analyzing THAT particular run of THAT particular model, YES, that IS a significant snowstorm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Posting the weenie snow accum maps for 300 hours out is not going to help your case. geez calm down bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Sorry, the Lakes/OV and Central/Western people are a bit more sedated (expect for the Ohio crowd ). I forgot how much weenie crap there was here in Philly, and how this is just normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I have no problem with things like this thread; let people have their fun. People take it too seriously. BTW the 00z GFS still has something brewing in that time frame, but not as big and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Sorry, the Lakes/OV and Central/Western people are a bit more sedated (expect for the Ohio crowd ). I forgot how much weenie crap there was here in Philly, and how this is just normal. Perhaps then you should post in the OV thread and stay out of this one? Thunder, I understand what the 12 hour difference means for the precip versus when the temps drop to a favorable level. In fact, I was taking Meteo and Atmospheric Science classes in college when you were still crapping in diapers. You need to think before you post in these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Maybe Thunder is just unhappy there's a chance he might miss the biggest October snowfall in over 30 years? In that regard, I know how he feels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Maybe Thunder is just unhappy there's a chance he might miss the biggest October snowfall in over 30 years? In that regard, I know how he feels... I was thinking the same thing Seriously, though, I know that particular storm will most likely not come about, but I have seen these threads several times over the years here, and I enjoy the discussions that sometimes arrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Maybe Thunder is just unhappy there's a chance he might miss the biggest October snowfall in over 30 years? In that regard, I know how he feels... That's not really saying much, haha. I'd rather wait til the middle of November and get 3x that much in one LES band, thanks. We all know that Accuweather said Chicago will see the worst of winter this year, and when Accuweather says it, it must be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 That's not really saying much, haha. I'd rather wait til the middle of November and get 3x that much in one LES band, thanks. So, are we going to constantly hear about snow in Indiana in threads here? Heads up, no one will really give a crap. I'd say let our region have our fun...you enjoy your snow out in the middle of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 So, are we going to constantly hear about snow in Indiana in threads here? Heads up, no one will really give a crap. I'd say let our region have our fun...you enjoy your snow out in the middle of nowhere. I don't think he realizes that Valpo is NOT located in some major LES location like western NY. Valpo area averages about 38" a year. OOooooo....wowwwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I don't think he realizes that Valpo is NOT located in some major LES location like western NY. Valpo area averages about 38" a year. OOooooo....wowwwww I think you may be mistaken... were you looking at the Waterworks average? Not surprisingly, the Waterworks folks seem to measure low. Valparaiso 5NNE has averaged 55 inches over the last 8 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I don't think he realizes that Valpo is NOT located in some major LES location like western NY. Valpo area averages about 38" a year. OOooooo....wowwwww Hey, I hope he gets his snow and cold and has fun.....doesn't mean we can't have some fun around here looking for snowstorms in the long range.....while its not something I normally spend time looking at, I do enjoy a thread like this when it brings to light a potential storm, especially at this point in the season (when not much is really going on). Brings some excitement and chatter to our subregion, which ain't a bad thing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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