SBUWX23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 More amplified than the 18z run for sure through 72 hours. Still doing some weird stuff with Rina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 The mid level ridge building ahead of the trough is dramatically sharper. It's trying to tug it in towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Close whiff but another big jump west. Unfortunately without the low closer to the coast the boundary layer is torched until 96 hours when cooling begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The mid level ridge building ahead of the trough is dramatically sharper. It's trying to tug it in towards the coast. Surface low is much closer to coast and looks to be headed that way as moves NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Close whiff but another big jump west. Unfortunately without the low closer to the coast the boundary layer is torched until 96 hours when cooling begins. 500 mb to me looks like surface low should be closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 just to show you differences in digging: 12z GFS: 0zGFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Very enthused by the changes in the 0z gfs. Almost made the complete jump to what previous euro solutions have been indicating. The first legitimate threat for accumulating snowfall. The h5 is beautiful and supports the idea of the digging shortwave and intensification closer to the coast. This is all possible considering the large area of confluence to the north and a beautiful setup that includes a nice block. It can snow in October, it has snowed in October, and it might just snow this year in October. This is the type of setup capable of producing such a rare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z GGEM is still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 And the 00z UKMET says I am back ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 ^^^^^^^^^^ Nice size storm but too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z GGEM is still OTS. Like we haven't seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I believe tomorrow's model runs, especially the evening ones are much more important. Still think we are in that period of confusion and that more clarification will come tomorrow. Right now details will probably remain foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 GEFS means are a good bit farther west and much more well defined with the low pressure area at 90 hours compared to the 18z mean spread. A very good sign at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 GEFS means are a good bit farther west and much more well defined with the low pressure area at 90 hours compared to the 18z mean spread. A very good sign at this range. Don't buy it, initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z FIM shifted west and goes boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro is way less amplified at 72 hrs compared to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z FIM shifted west and goes boom. Lock it up S+ to the coast! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 It's still got a potent shortwave over SW PA that's really ripping the trough on a more S-N axis up the coast. But it's de-amplified to an extent that it will be hard to bring it up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It's still got a potent shortwave over SW PA that's really ripping the trough on a more S-N axis up the coast. But it's de-amplified to an extent that it will be hard to bring it up this run. Surprising, after the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks pretty similar to the GFS, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 SREFs pretty chilly for the 1st storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So is the NAM. At least this keeps interest as the latter storm looks to be OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So is the NAM. At least this keeps interest as the latter storm looks to be OTS. Out to sea means it effects nobody... The only model that shows OTS is the GGEM... This is the first run of the ECM to have gone a slightly different direction which is less amplified then the prior runs... Meanwhile GFS has come in more amplified at 00z... Moral of the story is no model agreement and models are still fine tuning and adjusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Out to sea means it effects nobody... The only model that shows OTS is the GGEM... This is the first run of the ECM to have gone a slightly different direction which is less amplified then the prior runs... Meanwhile GFS has come in more amplified at 00z... Moral of the story is no model agreement and models are still fine tuning and adjusting! This almost sounds like a wishcast. The UK is just about the only model with any serious impact other than a light rain or Rn/Sn mix. The models are beginning to agree, its not all that far away now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 This almost sounds like a wishcast. The UK is just about the only model with any serious impact other than a light rain or Rn/Sn mix. The models are beginning to agree, its not all that far away now. How is it a wishcast? 00z ECM brings 0.25-.50 to SE PA all of SNJ at 90- 96 hrs.. The UKMET is NW of the ECM.. The GFS has come west from 18 Z 18 Z @ 102 hrs 00z @ 96 hrs Looks to me to be more west and amplified... As i stated the only model that is a complete miss is the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 How is it a wishcast? 00z ECM brings 0.25-.50 to SE PA all of SNJ at 90- 96 hrs.. The UKMET is NW of the ECM.. The GFS has come west from 18 Z 18 Z @ 102 hrs 00z @ 96 hrs Looks to me to be more west and amplified... As i stated the only model that is a complete miss is the GGEM Ok, a light rain/snow mix if not just rain, no serious impact, and the GFS and Euro pretty much met in the middle. (the wishcasting part was "adjusting and fine tuning") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Agreed. Question, have you looked at this morning's run of the JMA. If you take that out past 72 hrs, any ideas. Yesterday's 12z run was unreal. Also, having the NOGAPS trend west overnight was also promising. Maybe the Euro had a bad run. That is my take on this. If you just say maybe the Euro had a bad run, then ALL of the other models actually trended in a good direction last night. JMA 0Z 72hr. How is it a wishcast? 00z ECM brings 0.25-.50 to SE PA all of SNJ at 90- 96 hrs.. The UKMET is NW of the ECM.. The GFS has come west from 18 Z 18 Z @ 102 hrs 00z @ 96 hrs Looks to me to be more west and amplified... As i stated the only model that is a complete miss is the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Ok, a light rain/snow mix if not just rain, no serious impact, and the GFS and Euro pretty much met in the middle. (the wishcasting part was "adjusting and fine tuning") That very well may be the case but it is still 72-96 hrs away ...and my point was its not out to sea but on one model... As far as fine tuning and adjustments -well ..if you think the models are not going to change any on the track etc in the next 72 hrs to 96 hrs...then i would suggest that you were not around for the models last season when they changed drastically under 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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