ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Also drops everyone, including the city, into the low 30's, Friday morning. And highs only in the 40's, before the euro storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I buy the euro storm more than what the NAM is putting out for the 1st wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I buy the euro storm more than what the NAM is putting out for the 1st wave It's the opposite for me. Just from an anecdotal perspective, if there are 2 waves on the proggs, most of the time the first ends up being more impressive than progged, and the second is often nothing. Not really scientific, but I remember countless cases where this has happened. In addition, we're out at 50-55 hrs for the first wave, not too far, and certainly not in the NAMs fantasty range. The GFS had a similar output but not as much precip in the sub 0c 850mb air as the NAM at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Also drops everyone, including the city, into the low 30's, Friday morning. And highs only in the 40's, before the euro storm. Regardless of what happens storm wise, this should put an end to the growing season for the vast majority of us (thank God). Kill off the allergies and mosquitos already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's the opposite for me. Just from an anecdotal perspective, if there are 2 waves on the proggs, most of the time the first ends up being more impressive than progged, and the second is often nothing. Not really scientific, but I remember countless cases where this has happened. In addition, we're out at 50-55 hrs for the first wave, not too far, and certainly not in the NAMs fantasty range. The GFS had a similar output but not as much precip in the sub 0c 850mb air as the NAM at 18z. NAM is consistently too wet and too cold in these situations re: first storm. As to the the two wave theory, these are far enough apart and two separate systems, so while I agree with you the two waves generally don't work out, this isn't that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 speaking of the NAM and its fantasy range, check out the 500mb setup at 84 hours, its worlds better than the gfs, even though its off with the phase. Loop the map on ewall and watch the RH, it gives you a good idea where the storm is developing and where it will go. http://www.meteo.psu...8z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Regardless of what happens storm wise, this should put an end to the growing season for the vast majority of us (thank God). Kill off the allergies and mosquitos already. I will be so happy, this year has been TERRIBLE for my allergies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z NAM shows snow to the northern burbs with the first storm and a mildly threatening setup for a possible storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 18Z RGEM Precipitation Type at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z GFS appears to be a bit cooler with the first storm, as it has 850s crashing SE, as rain changes to snow in NE PA. It will be interesting to see what the GFS shows for the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I will be so happy, this year has been TERRIBLE for my allergies. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS is a touch sharper and stronger at H5, but still OTS baby steps....lets see the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 2nd storm threat is clearly there on the GFS. This run will probably still miss east with the slp track and development, but it shows just about everything you'd want to see in a 4-day model prog to get a little excited in October. The GFS also supports the NAM in giving snow to the Catskills, Bershires, and Taconics, with an outside shot of some flakes in the Hudson Highlands and elevated NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS actually scrapes LI and the Cape, looks plenty cold.....for October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Much closer on GFS. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z GFS looks like it is west of the 12z GFS and more amped than the 12z GFS. It has precip knocking on the Jersey shore at h102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Basically shift the GFS 200 miles NW and were golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Basically shift the GFS 200 miles NW and were golden Its not that easy, DGEX further OTS then ever btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 impeccable timing for a compact, transient, but effective positive height anomaly over the davis straight. this is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 All the GFS needs to do is have it's upper energy more focused over Western PA and WV like the Euro and it will have a surface low position similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 impeccable timing for a compact, transient, but effective positive height anomaly over the davis straight. this is gorgeous. That has got to be one of the luckies things I've ever seen. You couldnt put that anomaly in a better spot...just hope it pops something for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 All the GFS needs to do is have it's upper energy more focused over Western PA and WV like the Euro and it will have a surface low position similar to the Euro. Correct--great images. The upper air pattern depicted on the 18z GFS is highly similar to the 12z Euro run. For a laugh, check out the differences between the 06z and 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Interesting. impeccable timing for a compact, transient, but effective positive height anomaly over the davis straight. this is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 All the GFS needs to do is have it's upper energy more focused over Western PA and WV like the Euro and it will have a surface low position similar to the Euro. Great post, you can really see how the GFS is moving towards the Euro step by step. Its just missing that full phase that would wind up the vort enough to put the storm on the coast. In a nina pattern you would expect a more GFS like pattern but with whats going on upstream, I think a Euro solution is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Its not that easy, DGEX further OTS then ever btw. Of.course dgex is ots. The Nam at 84 missesrhe phase. Would not look at dgex for anything at this point of ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NOGAPS is back in play at 18z NOGAPS 90hr. NOGAPS 96 HR. NOGAPS 102 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 One thing I do not miss about winter is the upcoming 3 hour lull between anything interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 NOGAPS is back in play at 18z sweet. somewhere, atownwxwatcher is smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 People looking for a block to look like last December will always be disappointed. Some of the best storms come with Davis strait blocks that look just like this.570 heights over Greenland are the exception. This one will do just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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