Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It seemed like it did for a few months but slowly wore off. Claritin/Allegra forget it. Zyrtec didn't work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Seeing some GFS ensembles now showing the storm is positive. 18z GFS should be a pretty interesting run. I'd expect more of the same......but look for baby steps in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not to clog up the board with non storm related questions but do you take anything for the allergies? Anything over the counter or pills don't work at all for me. It has to be nasonex or some other spray. I have never had allergies like this in the fall,sneezing every single day.THe wet AUG/SEPT made a lot of stuff grow again and release pollen and cause a lot of mold on trees and other plants.I hope temps do drop below freezing and end this misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The deform zone on this run of the euro would be 1-3 inch an hour snow fall rates which would easily accumulate all the way to the coast save maybe the blacktop in times quare. That is an impressive bombogenesis and ccb which forms. Literally someone goes from low 40's and rain maybe mangled flake mix to 34 and S+ and sticking in an hours time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 And also, now seeing the 12z gefs pop a few coastals is very encouraging and fits the same pattern we saw last year with one model latched onto a solution, whether it was euro or gfs, be on its own for a while and then have the ensembles pick up up under 100 hours. Nothing like a davis straight block to make things interesting around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro is an exteme outlier right now, lets not get ahed of ourselves. I recall reading this before every big storm last winter also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If anybody in the NYC area does see accumulating snowfall,expect Thundersnow with the intense snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Seeing some GFS ensembles now showing the storm is positive. 18z GFS should be a pretty interesting run. Ehh the gfs will come around, the H5 argues in favor of that, but I don't expect much till earliest 12z tomorrow. Maybe some steps in the right direction though, I am cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If anybody in the NYC area does see accumulating snowfall,expect Thundersnow with the intense snow rates. Thats a little bold. You need some serious dynamics for thundersnow, probably a crazy deform band too. I dont see that happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 And also, now seeing the 12z gefs pop a few coastals is very encouraging and fits the same pattern we saw last year with one model latched onto a solution, whether it was euro or gfs, be on its own for a while and then have the ensembles pick up up under 100 hours. Nothing like a davis straight block to make things interesting around here. Amen bro. The pattern is nice to look at, can only hope the opportunity arises several times again throughout the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thats a little bold.You need some serious dynamics for thundersnow, probably a crazy deform band too.I dont see that happening here THats the only way I see any snow that does fall to stick near the coast.THere was thundersnow in New Brunswick during the October 08 storm.Oct 1979 had thundersnow and even the NOV 11 1987 storm had it as well although we missed out on what DC and BOS had.You need intense snow rates to have it stick here this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thats a little bold. You need some serious dynamics for thundersnow, probably a crazy deform band too. I dont see that happening here Its happened before, I believe Veterans day 87. Is it likely? No, but getting the euro to spit out .75 to 1 inch 6 hour qpf rates just south of LI as the low starts to move NE from atlantic city should put the thought into someone's mind away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Amen bro. The pattern is nice to look at, can only hope the opportunity arises several times again throughout the winter. True.Better to see this instead of LC after LC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Its happened before, I believe Veterans day 87.Is it likely? No, but getting the euro to spit out .75 to 1 inch 6 hour qpf rates just south of LI as the low starts to move NE from atlantic city should put the thought into someone's mind away from the coast. Exactly.I doubt anything would accumulate here in Queens county but where you are,thats a different story.YOu could definetly see accumulationg snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thats a little bold. You need some serious dynamics for thundersnow, probably a crazy deform band too. I dont see that happening here I don't know if that's really all that bold. You need some serious dynamics for accumulating snow in NYC in October. So, basically he said that IF NYC gets accumulating snow in October, it would probably come with thundersnow. That's really not so unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Check out the 500mb ensemble mean height anomaly from the 12z gfs. This maps screams noreaster. Other than wanting a little more ridging out west, this map has a deep 500 negative anomaly over the ohio valley, a deep negative anomaly around 50/50 (NF Low), and a strong positivie anomology in the davis straights (west based block). It's basically all there for the taking. Even the PNA ridge outwest is ok given the wavelengths and phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 updated HPC outlook: Day 4: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Day 5: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg I wonder which model they went with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12Z UPDATE... WITH ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION EARLY-MID PERIOD... THE UKMET HAS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT EWD AND THE GFS/CMC HAVE STAYED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE SPREAD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF REMAINS THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW ALBEIT WITH FASTER TIMING. WITH THE CNTRL CONUS TROF BY SUN-MON... THE UKMET OFFERS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN. THE ECMWF SEPARATES ITS SRN STREAM FARTHER EWD THAN THE PAST 1-2 RUNS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE... BUT IT STILL SHOWS MORE SEPARATION THAN OTHER SOLNS. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC REMAIN FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH THE TROF ENTERING WRN NOAM BY MON OR TUE... THE ECMWF/CMC ARE THE SHARPEST/MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE CMC STILL A SLOW EXTREME. FOR THE UPDATED PRELIMS A GENERAL PREFERENCE TOWARD SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS/GEFS CLUSTER WITH THE LEADING TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD FAVORED AN INITIAL BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN... 70 PCT TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL RUN DAYS 3-5 FRI-SUN AND THEN 70 PCT TOWARD THE MEAN BY DAYS 6-7 MON-TUE AS CONFIDENCE IN OPERATIONAL DETAILS DECLINES. MODEST EWD DEPARTURE OF THE 12Z UKMET FROM THE ECMWF WITH THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO SLIGHTLY BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY VOLATILE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FOR THE FINAL FCST OF THIS FEATURE. FINAL ISSUANCE ALSO REFLECTS UPDATED PRELIM CONTINUITY WITH THE TROF REACHING THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUN-MON AND THE SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ADDITION OF 12Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY NEW CONSENSUS TRENDS. MODEL SPREAD LEAVES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL ERN CONUS IMPACT FROM WRN ATLC LOW PRESSURE DURING THE WEEKEND. BASED ON CURRENT PREFS THAT ARE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD... PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE OVER THE EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EXPECT A COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAYS WITH HIGHS UP TO 10-20 F BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME BUT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST FROST OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON AT SOME LOCATIONS. EXPECT THE PAC NW TO SEE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES... ONE FRI AND ANOTHER AROUND SUN-MON. EACH FRONT SHOULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT-MDT PCPN WITH ONLY MODEST AMTS OF MSTR LEFT AS THEY DEPART FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PROGRESSION WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE TEMPS OVER THE WEST/PLAINS... WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL READINGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. RNFL COVERAGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO EXACT ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT PREFS THAT LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN WOULD LEAD TO MORE MSTR OVER THAT AREA THAN FCST BY THE GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The euro still has the JMA on its side. Ill post the map in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro has temps plummeting into the upper 20's, as the storm deepens and pulls away. Euro says freeze. Recent climatology says 35F would be an accomplishment. My guess is snow is confined roughly north of an extension of the MA/CT border, esp the higher elevations, and the City fails to drop below the mid-30s. I think Sussex, Danbury, Newburgh, and Poughkeepsie can hit 32F, and maybe Allentown and White Plains, but none of the NYC reporting stations. In recent years it's actually kind of rare until mid November or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Agreed. The Euro has a couple of things occuing which all play a major role. We both discussed them...the ridge is stronger and farther west, the northern stream digs very far south, and the southern stream phase occurs at the right time. All of these events, while possible, arent likely. Let's also throw in there that the event occurs at 00-12z when things are coolest. What a perfect run, huh? Jesus. Yeah, the Euro certainly paints the dream scenario at this point. Although there is a bit of a pos height anomaly up north, the NAO is positive, and the blocking isn't enough (IMO) to back the upper flow as much as the Euro indicates. The result should be more progressive, probably not as weak as the GFS, but close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah, the Euro certainly paints the dream scenario at this point. Although there is a bit of a pos height anomaly up north, the NAO is positive, and the blocking isn't enough (IMO) to back the upper flow as much as the Euro indicates. The result should be more progressive, probably not as weak as the GFS, but close to it. That is davis strait block my friend, and its being reinforced (chicken/egg?) by the 50/50 low. I don't care what the NAO indecies might say right now, i will take that 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Thnk of all the storms in years past where we would have died to have that, regardlesss that it isn't the strongest block ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just the sight of snowflakes falling from the sky would be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hearing from the SNE thread that the euro ensembles are well east of the op. By more then 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hearing from the SNE thread that the euro ensembles are well east of the op. By more then 100 miles. well, its probably the smoothed mean they are referring to, and seeing the spaghetti's last year for a time and then looking at the mean was like night and day. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 well, its probably the smoothed mean they are referring to, and seeing the spaghetti's last year for a time and then looking at the mean was like night and day. It is what it is. they are east, but stronger than the 0z. It will usually be east at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That is davis strait block my friend, and its being reinforced (chicken/egg?) by the 50/50 low. I don't care what the NAO indecies might say right now, i will take that 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Thnk of all the storms in years past where we would have died to have that, regardlesss that it isn't the strongest block ever. still would think its very unlikely that the small area of positive height anamolies would be enough to get a storm tuck in that close to the coast. Trough needs to be very sharp which looks unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 they are east, but stronger than the 0z. It will usually be east at this point. it's an ensemble. Even with their high resolution, they still act like ensembles. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying this is a lock or that anyone will verify with accumulating snowfall, but if you gave me 10 somewhat realistic patterns for the end of october and told me to pick my top 5, this pattern would be one of them and towards the top. I like most people, just want to see some snow flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Here comes the wishcasting. That lack of a ridge out west is really important IMO. I think a blend of the GFS and EURO is more likely, with precip confined to the coast. We can all hope for an amazing storm but we have to be realistic, remember its October so just having something to track is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 18z NAM got cold for the 1st event. Has snow for our neighbors to our north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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