ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Everyone, even NYC, drops below freezing as the storm pulls away and then into the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 102 hr. Lightest blue is 2-3" over the last 3 hours. 105, 108 and 111 show another 2"-4", even into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 105, 108 and 111 show another 2"-4", even into NYC. Euro Vs. the universe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Awesome run-glad to see the Euro isn't backing down. If it shows this tomorrow at 12z, it becomes a lot more likely. I fully agree that the best chances at accums are inland and 500 foot or higher. If the heights are crashing fast enough under the low, NYC and environs could see a period of snow at the end, but it would be very hard for any accumulation unless it was very heavy. The more this can occur at night, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 earthlight, please tell me where you are getting this map. I need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Everyone, even NYC, drops below freezing as the storm pulls away and then into the 20's. Flash freeze potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 earthlight, please tell me where you are getting this map. I need it. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Wunderground maps are really cool. But to reiterate what others have said, the snowfall algorithm is way too optimistic (and will be problematic all winter I predict). It is too broad-brushed, especially for October. It assumes that anyplace that is mixing with snowflakes is actually accumulating snow at a 10:1 ratio. Summit of Hunter Mt - yes, Hudson River waterfront at Tarrytown - No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Very important to note that the boundary layer temperatures portrayed are poor to begin with. The setup is nice but unfortunately it's like a whole bunch of rain changing to dynamic snow at the very tail end. The interior will fare better and may get some light accumulations. If you have your hopes set higher than that--you're going to be disappointed. Im loving my location right now for this storm.. Even with 8:1 ratios its still a 6"+ for my neck of the woods. Of course thats if you take this euro run seriously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The consistency of the euro is scary, and makes me believe that most of us will see our first snowfall. I would expect that even NYC in this setup could sustain a few hours of snowfall, but only minimal or no accumulation. I do believe this setup would be favorable for interior locations with higher elevation such as Mahwah, West Milford, and Vernon just to name a few. Those areas have the best chance of seeing snowfall accumulations in excess of 3 inches (areas N of 80 and W of 287). This of course is all based on the euro runs, which could ultimately change. But if there is one thing I learned last year, when the EURO shows the same solution several runs in a row, it is often a good indication. And this is all despite what any other model depicts. I would love to see even just snowflakes falling from the sky this weekend. Miami comes to town to play the Giants, seems appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You don't need temps below freezing to get accumulating snow in Central NJ in October Trenton NJ October 1972 - had 2.5 inches - so this snow event is very possible http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/TrentonClimatology/197210.htm BUT 1972 - 1973 - also set the lowest snowfall record for a season in many areas in the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Flash freeze potential? As the euro depicts it, I guess so. Just a remarkable evolution on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thank you. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Flash freeze potential? Could be a tough one for tree limbs that have not shed their leaves yet. Esp. inland at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS started showing this storm on October 15, then like clockwork, it lost it at roughly 6 days out, only to pick it up again on the next run this evening I suppose. The consistency of the euro is scary, and makes me believe that most of us will see our first snowfall. I would expect that even NYC in this setup could sustain a few hours of snowfall, but only minimal or no accumulation. I do believe this setup would be favorable for interior locations with higher elevation such as Mahwah, West Milford, and Vernon just to name a few. Those areas have the best chance of seeing snowfall accumulations in excess of 3 inches (areas N of 80 and W of 287). This of course is all based on the euro runs, which could ultimately change. But if there is one thing I learned last year, when the EURO shows the same solution several runs in a row, it is often a good indication. And this is all despite what any other model depicts. I would love to see even just snowflakes falling from the sky this weekend. Miami comes to town to play the Giants, seems appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 As the euro depicts it, I guess so. Just a remarkable evolution on the model. so a freeze or a frost is possible with the Euro?..so sick up sneezing this year..been a horrible allergy year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 so a freeze or a frost is possible with the Euro?..so sick up sneezing this year..been a horrible allergy year Euro has temps plummeting into the upper 20's, as the storm deepens and pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro has temps plummeting into the upper 20's, as the storm deepens and pull away. there is your freeze!!..growing season over ..GREAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think you would need quite a bit of heavy wet snow to cause alot of damage. I was in State College when we had 17" in November of 95 and there were alot of limbs down due to most of the trees having leaves on them. The temp stayed between 32 and 33 the entire event Could be a tough one for tree limbs that have not shed their leaves yet. Esp. inland at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS started showing this storm on October 15, then like clockwork, it lost it at roughly 6 days out, only to pick it up again on the next run this evening I suppose. Yea the scary thing is the models seem to be following the same pattern that occurred last year leading up to certain events. I remember when the EURO depicted several runs in a row a big snowstorm for the DEC 26 event. A lot of skepticism was raised because of lack of support even though earlier the GFS had hinted at the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 so a freeze or a frost is possible with the Euro?..so sick up sneezing this year..been a horrible allergy year Ditto. Freeze it all out..then some nice Indian summer before hopefully another good winter. Thats the script I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think you would need quite a bit of heavy wet snow to cause alot of damage. I was in State College when we had 17" in November of 95 and there were alot of limbs down due to most of the trees having leaves on them. The temp stayed between 32 and 33 the entire event Just a few inches of snow on some of these branches can cause quite a bit of damage. Some of these trees have also likely been weakened by Irene and the heavy rain producers in August. In State College, I saw tree damage from just a few inches of snow in Oct 2005 (and some areas could get significantly more than that well up in the hills). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just a few inches of snow on some of these branches can cause quite a bit of damage. Some of these trees have also likely been weakened by Irene and the heavy rain producers in August. In State College, I saw tree damage from just a few inches of snow in Oct 2005 (and some areas could get significantly more than that well up in the hills). The standard here is April 1996...and there were no leaves on the trees. What a mess...there was more stuff to cart away than after Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The standard here is April 1996...and there were no leaves on the trees. What a mess...there was more stuff to cart away than after Irene. I remember it snowing then, but it being a garden-variety snow event (I'm a lot closer to NYC where the urban heat island likely hurt). 4/7/03 was a bigger deal for us, but we lucked out with not having any leafed trees. 1/27 last year damaged some of the evergreens and pine trees because the 16" we had was very wet/pasty and packed with sleet. It became like a cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just a few inches of snow on some of these branches can cause quite a bit of damage. Some of these trees have also likely been weakened by Irene and the heavy rain producers in August. In State College, I saw tree damage from just a few inches of snow in Oct 2005 (and some areas could get significantly more than that well up in the hills). Agree, up this way there are some trees that were damaged along streams from Irene . A little bit of snow can bring some of them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not to clog up the board with non storm related questions but do you take anything for the allergies? Anything over the counter or pills don't work at all for me. It has to be nasonex or some other spray. so a freeze or a frost is possible with the Euro?..so sick up sneezing this year..been a horrible allergy year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ensembles got better at 12z as well. 3 members now have somewhat of a storm, whereas the 6z run had all OTS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f102.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro is an exteme outlier right now, lets not get ahed of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not to clog up the board with non storm related questions but do you take anything for the allergies? Anything over the counter or pills don't work at all for me. It has to be nasonex or some other spray. Zyrtec didn't work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro is an exteme outlier right now, lets not get ahed of ourselves. Seeing some GFS ensembles now showing the storm is positive. 18z GFS should be a pretty interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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