SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Isn't the NAM the coldest solution though, the other models are definitely warmer at the surface even though they show a strong coastal storm like the NAM does, plus I know the NAM has a bias of being too cold, i need the other models to trend colder. Probably the only way to do that would be to show a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 This seems a bit unbelievable heh. Hate to rain on anyones parade here, but is there any model support? Or at least a model kinda bending towards support? welcome to the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not saying we'll get one in the city but does anyone know the earliest in the season that a Winter storm watch was ever issued? I can't even remember one for November. I doubt they will issue one for the City. Possibly for NENJ, the lower HV, and interior CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Isn't the NAM the coldest solution though, the other models are definitely warmer at the surface even though they show a strong coastal storm like the NAM does, plus I know the NAM has a bias of being too cold, i need the other models to trend colder. Probably the only way to do that would be to show a stronger storm. The Euro was cold and showed snow right down to Long Island too. The GFS is hinting at the same, but might be missing out on the mesoscale dynamics a model like the NAM might pick up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 OMG (2-3"/hr!!!) Actually... You have to be careful when posting something that includes the moment it changes over... InstantWeatherMaps.com does "a specially weighted average" to the ratios before multiplying by precip. Granted, unlike most other sites with snow maps, Earl Barker's maps do not use faulty logic. They just count a little more rain as snow than they should (and on the back end they do the opposite if it's changing from snow to rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have a very hard time believing that will happen but I'm just out of answers at this point. It's almost time to just sit back and let it unfold. yeah same here, they are clown maps for a reason. fun to look at. the fact that the option is even on the table is mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 KBDR, 18Z NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Time for a new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 KBDR, 18Z NAM, :drunk: Ratios would be absolute ****, but I am utterly at a loss for words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Actually... You have to be careful when posting something that includes the moment it changes over... InstantWeatherMaps.com does "a specially weighted average" to the ratios before multiplying by precip. Granted, unlike most other sites with snow maps, Earl Barker's maps do not use faulty logic. They just count a little more rain as snow than they should (and on the back end they do the opposite if it's changing from snow to rain). That map still shows 6" in a 3 hour period which is insane to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Pretty sure Thanksgiving of '89 had one but most of the time when we do get snow around these parts this early its more of a surprise. The fact that we are seeing this 2 days out and issuing watches is unreal. I can't even remember one for November. I doubt they will issue one for the City. Possibly for NENJ, the lower HV, and interior CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 KBDR, 18Z NAM, Can you do KLGA please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just for a refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Time for a new thread? I'd start one, but I'm not from NYC or anywhere near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Omg im here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 High water content huge squirrel squashing plastering gigantic snowflakes would be bad for power/trees..but wtf, we are all extremists in here, bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 somebody start a new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The other coolwx sites in NY haven't updated, they are still on 12z. Bufkit will be out soon. Remember guys, for as silly and pumped up as we all are being, the NAM can easily be too cold in these situations, just like the GFS can be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 High water content huge squirrel squashing plastering gigantic snowflakes would be bad for power/trees..but wtf, we are all extremists in here, bring it on I think this is true but with 30 to 40 mph winds much will not stay on leaves thus averting a disaster for power. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 new thread dude, that's a terrible title.....be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Temps dropping rapidly in the lower Hudson Valley. Winds suddenly very gusty about 50 miles north of midtown. A few pings of sleet suggest mid-levels have cooled below freezing. Snowflakes can't be too far to the north. Highest elevations (Fahnestock State Park?) likely to get dusted white tonight. Great sign that this airmass is respectably cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 I would wear a Redsox jersey for a whole year if the NAM verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Pretty sure Thanksgiving of '89 had one but most of the time when we do get snow around these parts this early its more of a surprise. The fact that we are seeing this 2 days out and issuing watches is unreal. There was a Winter Storm Watch in November 2002 for the entire area but it was dropped quickly after being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.