jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 According to that snow chart, im in line for 11 inches...right. if that verifies ill wear a clownsuit to work for a week Ratios would be something like 7:1, but if 0.5-0.75" or so falls as snow, that's 3-6". This is a one-per-lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Even D.C sees accumulating snow this run . Wow, just epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think if anything, the low intensity is being UNDERestimated if the phasing takes place as progged (similar to the Boxing Day storm) plus 60-65F water temps. Insane gradients, lift, and bombogenesis. It's a progressive low that won't be able to cut off like that one did for a while which could put a slight damper on things, but wow what a beauty. Yeah you definitely have a point regarding the awesome thermal gradient along the VA coast, plus if H5 closes off as progged we're likely to see a sub 990mb low near our latitude. The issue is can we close off that quickly in a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Same here, I'm still struggling to believe this is going to happen, and would like to see the 00z and 12z runs remain consistent before buying into it. 54-60 hours may be ok for winter, but this type of solution shown at 60hrs in October? Models are essentially in consensus now, but we're still a solid 2 days out. Any decrease in sfc low intensity would be detrimental to accum snow prospects along the coast. CCB gets cranking at 48hours. Its not 60 hours away. By hour 60, its mostly over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I was just thinking imagine if the Yankees were in the World Series and home for the final two games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 With this type of CCB, wind etc, are we talking about possible white out conditions?? This sounds like a total disaster.. I don't think any of us believe this. It's surreal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Talk about dynamical cooling. Its 32 degrees at 1000 feet at KNYC while it snowing and then shoot ups to almost 5c when it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 given the circumstances, one of if not THE most unbelievable map(s) I have ever seen in my time forecasting the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 given the circumstances, one of if not THE most unbelievable maps I have ever seen in my time forecasting the weather. come on, forecasting what we thought a cat 2 hurricane slicing up new york harbor?? much much more impressive than this. A rain to snow slop, maybe a sloppy inch on grass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Alright finally i'm into it with that NAM snowfall map..But be very careful..that would be a once in 500 year storm..maybe back to the ice age..It's really hard to believe if it beats LGA's 1.2" in 1962 it will be a historic storm...Anything can happen but I'll lean on the side of climate so I'mm expecting very little...I'll take what ever we get at this time of the year...The storm track and cold air are more important...Remember October 2009...two months later a repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Imagine if we had a block with all those storms we suffered through in 2007 and 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Check out that thermal packing on that NAM shot, sweet jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 if it beat LGA's 1.2" in 1962 it will be a historic storm...Anything can happen but I'll lean on the side of climate so I'mm expecting very little...I'll take what ever we get at this time of the year...The storm track and cold air are more important...Remember October 2009...two months later a repeat... unc me too..hey we have been watching weather for decades in the NY Metro area,,18z Nam and the Euro is jaw dropping..doubt that would happen in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 come on, forecasting what we thought a cat 2 hurricane slicing up new york harbor?? much much more impressive than this. A rain to snow slop, maybe a sloppy inch on grass... One of. You find me another model run in the last 10 years that showed that type of dynamic CCB/frontogenic plastering snowfall in late October. Better yet. Find me one model run within 60 hours from the last 10 years in October that shows anything remotely close to what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 come on, forecasting what we thought a cat 2 hurricane slicing up new york harbor?? much much more impressive than this. A rain to snow slop, maybe a sloppy inch on grass... The tree damage here could be surreal, given what trees/vegetation was weakened by Irene. It doesn't take a foot of wet gloppy snow to have a major impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 unc me too..hey we have been watching weather for decades in the NY Metro area,,18z Nam and the Euro is jaw dropping..doubt that would happen in October Think of all the things we have said the last two years that started with "doubt that will happen, it hasn't happened before" and then look back at what did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tree damage and many power outages would be possible if what the NAM showed truly verified. You have the weakened trees from Irene, months of very wet weather in one of the wettest years on record, add more heavy precipitation, rain than heavy wet snow on 80-90% of trees with leaves still on them, and add in some strong winds and we're going to have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not to mention trick or treating, college football games, The Giants on Sunday. It's also normally peak weekend as far as fall foliage goes. All the B&B owners will have to be pretty irked I was just thinking imagine if the Yankees were in the World Series and home for the final two games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Kuchera method snowfall algorithms have 12" for EWR and western edge of NYC. 6"+ ribbon is extensive up and around I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey guys, I mapped up 700 hPa Q-Vectors and Q-Vector Convergence from the 18Z NAM. Here is the 48-hour plot I got: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 OMG (2-3"/hr!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This seems a bit unbelievable heh. Hate to rain on anyones parade here, but is there any model support? Or at least a model kinda bending towards support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am just speechless.... The model goes from nothing...not a flake of snow to 1-2 feet in a matter of 6 hours. The NAM was really the last holdout, so I think its time to start drawing up the snowmaps boys. Welcome historic snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This seems a bit unbelievable heh. Hate to rain on anyones parade here, but is there any model support? Or at least a model kinda bending towards support? Euro has a solid 1" of QPF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This seems a bit unbelievable heh. Hate to rain on anyones parade here, but is there any model support? Or at least a model kinda bending towards support? Huh?? Where have you been? This WAS the only model NOT showing accum. snow. Please tell me you are joking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Kuchera method snowfall algorithms have 12" for EWR and western edge of NYC. 6"+ ribbon is extensive up and around I-95. I have a very hard time believing that will happen but I'm just out of answers at this point. It's almost time to just sit back and let it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not saying we'll get one in the city but does anyone know the earliest in the season that a Winter storm watch was ever issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow mixing in now... 37.2* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It just snows whenever it wants to now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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