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And we're off - first threat for a few mangled flakes


earthlight

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Wow at some of the winds being shown off the coast-easily 50-60 mph. I think if anything, this may be the least reported yet very damaging/destructive aspect of the storm. And I certainly believe it given the warm waters and dynamics going into this thing.

Could be a preview on how storms may behave this winter.

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I can't believe I'm looking at this. I really can't. The 12Z GFS and 18Z NAM... hell even the EC even though it warmer... essentially unprecedented. Once in a lifetime event possible

Same here, I'm still struggling to believe this is going to happen, and would like to see the 00z and 12z runs remain consistent before buying into it. 54-60 hours may be ok for winter, but this type of solution shown at 60hrs in October? Models are essentially in consensus now, but we're still a solid 2 days out. Any decrease in sfc low intensity would be detrimental to accum snow prospects along the coast.

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Snow through hour 60...I'm sorry, but I'm about to faint. Like earthlight, sorry for deteriorating the post quality.

18znamsnow_NE060.gif

Aah they also fell for the TwisterData effect... that is NOT a snow depth map... rather, they are taking the Snow Depth Water Equivalent and multiplying by 10... that usually yields totals about twice what they would be has the actual snow depth parameter been used. Nice to fantasize and all, but the only snow maps I trust are those on InstantWeatherMaps.com and Earl Barker's site. Still shows a healthy 8-9" on the ground on the real snow depth though, and a total snowfall of 12-15" in a continuous band.

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Same here, I'm still struggling to believe this is going to happen, and would like to see the 00z and 12z runs remain consistent before buying into it. 54-60 hours may be ok for winter, but this type of solution shown at 60hrs in October? Models are essentially in consensus now, but we're still a solid 2 days out. Any decrease in sfc low intensity would be detrimental to accum snow prospects along the coast.

I think if anything, the low intensity is being UNDERestimated if the phasing takes place as progged (similar to the Boxing Day storm) plus 60-65F water temps. Insane gradients, lift, and bombogenesis. It's a progressive low that won't be able to cut off like that one did for a while which could put a slight damper on things, but wow what a beauty.

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NWS forecast my zip

Saturday: Rain likely before 2pm, then rain and snow. High near 42. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 14 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 34. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

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Ha the snow depth would indicate that I would see nearly a foot of snow in October. Like there's just no way, something has to be wrong, maybe tomorrow things will go back to normal and just show a nice rainstorm for us with snow in the higher elevations because there's just no way something like this could happen. I know it could snow in October, it happened in 2008 but to get actual accumulations is nuts.

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