jjvesnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks to be mostly at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow through hour 60...I'm sorry, but I'm about to faint. Like earthlight, sorry for deteriorating the post quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 992 Low basically on the BM. I mean, its perfect. I would Love to swap this storm for a crappy one in December. Just a perfect set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 no snow for long island, sorry ill take one flake, ive never seen snow in october, im sure ill see some flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow at some of the winds being shown off the coast-easily 50-60 mph. I think if anything, this may be the least reported yet very damaging/destructive aspect of the storm. And I certainly believe it given the warm waters and dynamics going into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can't believe I'm looking at this. I really can't. The 12Z GFS and 18Z NAM... hell even the EC even though it warmer... essentially unprecedented. Once in a lifetime event possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I really think all these jet interactions are playing a huge role.. I've never seen so many jet streaks involved and they are continually refeeding themselves into favorable positions.. look at how far back the CCB extends from the surface.. I really like the upper level dynamics with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 no snow for long island, sorry WTF?!?! are you serious?!?! not even one flake in the air????!!! ((( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Where on LI do you live? Albertson/Roslyn Heights...that snow gradient on the NAM chart is intense for long island, north shore/south shore...6+ inch difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Where on LI do you live? The 2nd half of the storm looks like its snow for most of Long Island. We take a few hours to get the cold air cranking, and then we get pelted also. Probably a pasty 34 degree snow, but snow regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow through hour 60...I'm sorry, but I'm about to faint. Like earthlight, sorry for deteriorating the post quality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow at some of the winds being shown off the coast-easily 50-60 mph. I think if anything, this may be the least reported yet very damaging/destructive aspect of the storm. And I certainly believe it given the warm waters and dynamics going into this thing. Could be a preview on how storms may behave this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow through hour 60...I'm sorry, but I'm about to faint. Like earthlight, sorry for deteriorating the post quality. that is just obscene.. I don't even care if 90% of it doesn't stick.. I just wanna see huge flakes blowing all over the place and very heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WTF?!?! are you serious?!?! not even one flake in the air????!!! ((( He's joking man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The 2nd half of the storm looks like its snow for most of Long Island. We take a few hours to get the cold air cranking, and then we get pelted also. Probably a pasty 34 degree snow, but snow regardless. I can see flakes, and if it is heavy enough accumulations for western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You guys agree that the Jersey Shore will see all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WTF?!?! are you serious?!?! not even one flake in the air????!!! ((( The NAM shows snow on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that is just obscene.. I don't even care if 90% of it doesn't stick.. I just wanna see huge flakes blowing all over the place and very heavy snow And thats snow DEPTH! Here is the final one that includes through hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I would wear a Redsox jersey for a whole year if the NAM verified Your signature just made me laugh out loud. Winter begins in 56 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I honestly cannot believe that snow map. Tonight will give any credence to what accumulations might look like. This is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can't believe I'm looking at this. I really can't. The 12Z GFS and 18Z NAM... hell even the EC even though it warmer... essentially unprecedented. Once in a lifetime event possible Same here, I'm still struggling to believe this is going to happen, and would like to see the 00z and 12z runs remain consistent before buying into it. 54-60 hours may be ok for winter, but this type of solution shown at 60hrs in October? Models are essentially in consensus now, but we're still a solid 2 days out. Any decrease in sfc low intensity would be detrimental to accum snow prospects along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EPIC Holy mother of God!!! I'm just speechless right now! I just don't know what to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow through hour 60...I'm sorry, but I'm about to faint. Like earthlight, sorry for deteriorating the post quality. Aah they also fell for the TwisterData effect... that is NOT a snow depth map... rather, they are taking the Snow Depth Water Equivalent and multiplying by 10... that usually yields totals about twice what they would be has the actual snow depth parameter been used. Nice to fantasize and all, but the only snow maps I trust are those on InstantWeatherMaps.com and Earl Barker's site. Still shows a healthy 8-9" on the ground on the real snow depth though, and a total snowfall of 12-15" in a continuous band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM shows snow on Long Island. According to that snow chart, im in line for 11 inches...right. if that verifies ill wear a clownsuit to work for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I just pulled the soundings on the NAM for KNYC, its got thundersnow potential starting at about 51 hours, are you kidding me? It's a mid winter sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Same here, I'm still struggling to believe this is going to happen, and would like to see the 00z and 12z runs remain consistent before buying into it. 54-60 hours may be ok for winter, but this type of solution shown at 60hrs in October? Models are essentially in consensus now, but we're still a solid 2 days out. Any decrease in sfc low intensity would be detrimental to accum snow prospects along the coast. I think if anything, the low intensity is being UNDERestimated if the phasing takes place as progged (similar to the Boxing Day storm) plus 60-65F water temps. Insane gradients, lift, and bombogenesis. It's a progressive low that won't be able to cut off like that one did for a while which could put a slight damper on things, but wow what a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I wouldn't be wishing for that type of snow output given most of the trees are still full of leaves. We're talking Irene all over again in terms of power outages if that even comes close to verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NWS forecast my zip Saturday: Rain likely before 2pm, then rain and snow. High near 42. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 14 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 34. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ha the snow depth would indicate that I would see nearly a foot of snow in October. Like there's just no way, something has to be wrong, maybe tomorrow things will go back to normal and just show a nice rainstorm for us with snow in the higher elevations because there's just no way something like this could happen. I know it could snow in October, it happened in 2008 but to get actual accumulations is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Alright finally i'm into it with that NAM snowfall map..But be very careful..that would be a once in 500 year storm..maybe back to the ice age..It's really hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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