MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ETA looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Let's say we had the same scenario with this storm that the models show except it was mid December, what would we have expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ETA looks beautiful deform band pivot point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 VERY impressive sref probability maps. Even to the city: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is a storm in a fairly progressive pattern. I'm not that worried about a coast hugger or a track so far west we get rain anyway. I think it goes NNE from Cape Hatteras to off Cape May, then pulls some fade ENE, just like the Boxing Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Let's say we had the same scenario with this storm that the models show except it was mid December, what would we have expected? Probably totals similar to 12/26 last year. 1-2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 VERY impressive sref probability maps. Even to the city: ahhhhhhhhhhh i cant wait to hear them on the radio "north and west of the city, 2-4 inches, mainly rain for the coast" Story of my lifetime, prior to say, past 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lol, remember yesterday when everyone was bashing jb for calling for 1-3" for the big cities? Well he may be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lol, remember yesterday when everyone was bashing jb for calling for 1-3" for the big cities? Well he may be correct. He's calling for 3-6 + now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Would you like to re-phrase that? I bet there will be a big change in conditions just from the 86th floor observation deck to 34th Street. That's what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z nam is already more amplified at hr 27.. trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EVERY single model, including the old ETA, now have a major storm and the deform band right over NYC. NAM is the last model left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z NAM looks like it will tick west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 VERY impressive sref probability maps. Even to the city: Those maps are truly unbelievable! It's likely the NWS offices will experience a lot of confusion regarding how to interpret them. HPC graphics are usually pretty reliable for basing warnings/advisories and general accumulations. The trouble is what they are showing seems almost impossible. I still believe the snowfall algorithms are not well suited to very early season storms. There's a lot of residual warmth in the bottom few hundred meters that might not be well accounted for in low resolution snowfall graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those maps are truly unbelievable! It's likely the NWS offices will experience a lot of confusion regarding how to interpret them. HPC graphics are usually pretty reliable for basing warnings/advisories and general accumulations. The trouble is what they are showing seems almost impossible. I still believe the snowfall algorithms are not well suited to very early season storms. There's a lot of residual warmth in the bottom few hundred meters that might not be well accounted for in low resolution snowfall graphics. It seems almost impossible because nothing like it has happened in recorded climate data in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That deform band will definitely have significant cooling that will probably lead to snow, even in the city, no matter the hour. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hour 30 it continues, significantly more amplified now..Will def tick if not jump west from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Major trough amplification compared to 12z. Vortmax is much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 cant believe the setup..ridge pumping out west, trough diving down beautifully working with a blocking low and blocking upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 first high resolution nam weenie tossing run is moments away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My updated zone forecast: Though I'm not sure how one gets snow when it's mostly clear ;-) .SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. BREEZY AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It seems almost impossible because nothing like it has happened in recorded climate data in October. Agreed. I live in NW Morris County (Oak Ridge) ele. 880. I have lived through a few situations here in October where the heavy snow comes down like a %^%$ for several hours but........................accumulation is very hard to come by, even at night, never mind the daylight hours. We'll see. this type of scenario in the Poconos above say 1500-2000 feet, a different ballgame up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z NAM at 36 hr: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F27%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M 12z NAM at 42 hr: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F27%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Look at the energy driving southward. The trough amplifies tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking GFSish at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM's RH field from 12z to 18z has trippled in size, LOLZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 first high resolution nam weenie tossing run is moments away Hour 54 is going to be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM has lower thicknesses then euro and gfs at hour 45. Super amped up also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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