tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING... .AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0400Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...IMPAIRED TRAVEL...AND ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...1/2 TO 1 MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING... .AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0400Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...IMPAIRED TRAVEL...AND ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...1/2 TO 1 MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Looks like Channel 7 will have to adjust their graphics showing the storm clipping us to the South and bringing .10 of rain to the south shore of LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 .... Too bad we can't bring the top of the Empire State Building to the surface either for this one. Would you like to re-phrase that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow. Winter storm watches on a line from Allentown PA to East Hanover, NJ. Only a few miles west of Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow. Winter storm watches on a line from Allentown PA to East Hanover, NJ. Only a few miles west of Newark. Let's see if Upton makes a move next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Let's see if Upton makes a move next. No way. I cant see them putting up any watched near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm still wondering how hard it will be for snow to stick in the middle of Manhattan. Obviously NYC was far less developed in 1869, and sometimes even in March it's hard for accumulations in the urban areas. It still wouldn't surprise me if Central Park and the airport tarmacs come in at T or 0.2", etc. Perhaps just being at Farmingdale or the immediate suburbs will make a significant difference. Elevation will obviously help most of all. Too bad we can't bring the top of the Empire State Building to the surface either for this one. There was a storm in March (of 2001?) where there was 5 inches of snow on the ground everywhere including the streets in Central Queens and when I took the train into downtown there was barely an inch in some shady spots. I'll have no problem seeing the city record zero inches if I still get something here.The changes a few miles outside Manhattan can bring are beyond dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No way. I cant see them putting up any watched near the coast. I could see Northern Westchester and Putnam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 There was a storm in March (of 2001?) where there was 5 inches of snow on the ground everywhere including the streets in Central Queens and when I took the train into downtown there was barely an inch in some shady spots. I'll have no problem seeing the city record zero inches if I still get something here.The changes a few miles outside Manhattan can bring are beyond dramatic. Yup. The hilly areas of Bayside and North Flushing, Queens, have had 3"-6" of snow many times while the actual city, JFK and even LGA have had almost zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No way. I cant see them putting up any watched near the coast. I think they will go with a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Let's see if Upton makes a move next. They didn't pull the trigger on the Ice storm warning during VD 2007 even when temps were in the low 20's until 3 inches of sleet were on the ground and it was sleeting heavily. They are NOT going to issue anything for the coast In October with marginal temps and a yet to be seen storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 this is one of those times I wish Rockland was split into 2 zones like Westchester.. it really does make a huge difference where you are in my county. I realize it's a very small county but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think they will go with a WWA. Not today. If they do hoist a WWA, it will be tomorrow night, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They didn't pull the trigger on the Ice storm warning during VD 2007 even when temps were in the low 20's until 3 inches of sleet were on the ground and it was sleeting heavily. They are NOT going to issue anything for the coast In October with marginal temps and a yet to be seen storm. Of course not. They do things backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 cant wait for the clocks to go back.. srefs in yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think they will go with a WWA. Not until Friday's 5PM or 11PM update, if this stays as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No way. I cant see them putting up any watched near the coast. They forecast for areas away from the coast, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 cant wait for the clocks to go back.. srefs in yet? Yup. They got much wetter then previous runs: And much stronger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have travel plans on hot standby. Would like to see the EC 925 temps cool off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 that's a big time jog west on the sref mean. nam weenie run likely incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah AG3, and members leaning west right over the BM. Only a matter of time (maybe minutes) before the nam jumps on this.. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F27%2F2011+15UTC&rname=PRECIP+MEANSPRD&pname=precip_p06&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 srefs individuals have a bunchof members that are too amped up and way too warm for coast and Jersey. But in this situation, so close, the mean is the best tool to weed out the extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lee Goldberg mentioned on facebook about the storm this weekend .He also said that coastal regions will also see accumulating snow. Finally someone mentioned about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All the ETA members of the srefs finally have the storm. So the 15z ETA will fall soon also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What do we need to look for in order to get this storm delayed by a few hours? It would suck not to have accumulating snow because of a slightly mis-timed storm arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What do we need to look for in order to get this storm delayed by a few hours? It would suck not to have accumulating snow because of a slightly mis-timed storm arrival. The deform band is set to hit us from 2pm to 8pm. Thats fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What do we need to look for in order to get this storm delayed by a few hours? It would suck not to have accumulating snow because of a slightly mis-timed storm arrival. I know having the storm when the sun goes down would be better but the sun angle is lower now than it is in March so I think there's other factors besides the sun angle to worry about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 SREF MEAN has 1.50"-1.75"for NYC area. 1.75"-2" for Suffolk County: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know having the storm when the sun goes down would be better but the sun angle is lower now than it is in March so I think there's other factors besides the sun angle to worry about here. I know but we don't need insolation to add to the borderline conditions. Many times I have seen snow struggle to stick only to start piling up as soon as we approach sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Coastalwx says that the Euro ensembles is slightly west than the op. No major differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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