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And we're off - first threat for a few mangled flakes


earthlight

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Based on 1000-850m critical thicknesses..looks like around 21z would be snow for the city.

So based on that it probably snows mod to heavy for a couple hrs and transitions to lighter snow/drizzle thereafter? I would be beyond amazed if KNYC does better than a trace. Its obviously a possibility esp if you believe the model output this aftn. People are going to be very surprised when they go out sat night in their skimpy costumes and it's snowing in manhattan

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This honestly reminds me of 2009-2010 winter storms, in which they were so borderline, that we got heavy wet snow. This pattern and storm depiction seems almost similar in that sense. Most models and the ensembles are locked in, pretty impressive. Rooting for you guys in the city, I'll prob get snow anyways since I'm upstate, but I'll be watching. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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My deep down gut feeling is that this is another long island special...in that the rain snow line goes from bayridge, north to astoria to LGA across to larchmont, hugs the CT coast all the way around the sound...long island all rain. i feel it

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The cold air in general is also a shocker, the lowest that my area has been down to so far this autumn was 44F, were NYC and surrounding locations

even in the 40s yet. It's amazing to get this storm when you consider how mild to warm this month has been for us. Also would all the plants freeze if the temperatures

got down to 31-32 in the suburbs.

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The cold air in general is also a shocker, the lowest that my area has been down to so far this autumn was 44F, were NYC and surrounding locations

even in the 40s yet. It's amazing to get this storm when you consider how mild to warm this month has been for us. Also would all the plants freeze if the temperatures

got down to 31-32 in the suburbs.

Im in NW Queens I've been down to 45.

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Wow, just took a look at the 12z models.

Looks like we could see some history this weekend. I really like the way the vort is being depicted right now, its strong enough to spur some good dynamics and per the 12z models, in the perfect place so that the surface low takes a BM track. The key there was having the northern stream energy dig a little further than previously modeled.

In terms of snow, theres obviously going to be a warm layer below 925 for many coastal areas. Judging by the soundings I think snow will work down into the immediate suburbs, LI and the city may have trouble getting anything more than slop on the grass, but for everyone else, surface temps may dip enough for some accumulation.

Going forward, we basically just need some consistency, any shift could really throw things off at this point.

Early guess is

2-4 for places over 1,000

1-3 for suburbs

T-1 for city

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Not for nothing, but this is becoming a bit absurd.. This is what a 1 in 500 year type of map, as depicted.. This just doesn't happen, ever... Earthlight, as depicted could NYC get more than 1" of snow?

Extremes do happen - no one ever believed this could happen -( Nov 11. 1987 ) plus this has been the year of extremes

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/11/on_this_veterans_day_in_1987.html

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Im down to 39* here..

Central Catskills snowing at 1500ft per ski area web cams. Getting close.

There's still a bit of moisture to the west that will swing through this evening. As cold air continues to filter down the HV, some flakes could mix in at the tail end across the Hudson Highlands.

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Central Catskills snowing at 1500ft per ski area web cams. Getting close.

There's still a bit of moisture to the west that will swing through this evening. As cold air continues to filter down the HV, some flakes could mix in at the tail end across the Hudson Highlands.

Most places are below 45 to the north of the city, places with elevation are in the 30's

temp.ne-large.png

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Not to hype this up anymore than it needs to be....

http://www.erh.noaa....onsnowfall.html

Records go back to 1869....the most NYC has ever gotten in October is .8"

I'm still wondering how hard it will be for snow to stick in the middle of Manhattan. Obviously NYC was far less developed in 1869, and sometimes even in March it's hard for accumulations in the urban areas. It still wouldn't surprise me if Central Park and the airport tarmacs come in at T or 0.2", etc. Perhaps just being at Farmingdale or the immediate suburbs will make a significant difference. Elevation will obviously help most of all. Too bad we can't bring the top of the Empire State Building to the surface either for this one.

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Well between the 105-08 degree heat, snowiest months on record (Jan '11 and Feb '10) and wettest March (10) and April (07) and August (11) on record just in the past 4 years I'd say no records are safe at this point (unless they involve low temps).

Extremes do happen - no one ever believed this could happen -( Nov 11. 1987 ) plus this has been the year of extremes

http://voices.washin...ay_in_1987.html

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I'm still wondering how hard it will be for snow to stick in the middle of Manhattan. Obviously NYC was far less developed in 1869, and sometimes even in March it's hard for accumulations in the urban areas. It still wouldn't surprise me if Central Park and the airport tarmacs come in at T or 0.2", etc. Perhaps just being at Farmingdale or the immediate suburbs will make a significant difference. Elevation will obviously help most of all. Too bad we can't bring the top of the Empire State Building to the surface either for this one.

March has a higher sun angle than we do now.

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I'm still wondering how hard it will be for snow to stick in the middle of Manhattan. Obviously NYC was far less developed in 1869, and sometimes even in March it's hard for accumulations in the urban areas. It still wouldn't surprise me if Central Park and the airport tarmacs come in at T or 0.2", etc. Perhaps just being at Farmingdale or the immediate suburbs will make a significant difference. Elevation will obviously help most of all. Too bad we can't bring the top of the Empire State Building to the surface either for this one.

yeah UHI has really decimated NYC's climate respectability. That being said, heavy snow will stick at 35....

Well between the 105-08 degree heat, snowiest months on record (Jan '11 and Feb '10) and wettest March (10) and April (07) and August (11) on record just in the past 4 years I'd say no records are safe at this point (unless they involve low temps).

This drunk.gif

going to be interesting how they measure this - heavy wet snow where much of it is melting shortly after hitting the ground BUT regardless .8 should be easy to break in this set up

Yeah if the Euro verifies, we'll have no problem breaking .8...not saying we get 5" here but at least an inch

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ok here ya go in the last 150 years there have been 3 snowfalls that accumulated in CPK..1876 0.5,1925 0.8,and 1952 0.5 and that's it,,there have been 12 years with a trace

October 26, 1859 - New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city.

Most I could find. Im sure UNc or Don S may have more details

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...

.AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS.

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280900-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0400Z/

SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...

JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...

EASTON

315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS

COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE

HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...IMPAIRED TRAVEL...AND ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS

WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

:thumbsup::snowman:

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