Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Why am I getting a warning when he was the one posting about the GFS in the 300-hour range? Are you serious? If anything 'shouldn't fly' it's the BS comments that derail threads--aka, anything relating to the GFS post-truncation (even post 96 hours). I asked if anybody has seen it. Did I say that I think that is what is going to happen? I thought it looked pretty cool seeing the first GFS run bringing a snowstorm here at any point during the run. It's a sign that Fall is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Why am I getting a warning when he was the one posting about the GFS in the 300-hour range? Are you serious? If anything 'shouldn't fly' it's the BS comments that derail threads--aka, anything relating to the GFS post-truncation (even post 96 hours). There is a BS and Banter thread right below this. His post and ESPECIALLY your post belongs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I asked if anybody has seen it. Did I say that I think that is what is going to happen? I thought it looked pretty cool seeing the first GFS run bringing a snowstorm here at any point during the run. It's a sign that Fall is here! I have seen it - here is the MeteoStar 16 dayer at newark NJ - its heavy rain to heavy wet snow Its a good sign that these coastals are showing up on a regular basis now - all we need is the AO to kick into the negative phase - its been positive since Hurricane Irene came through ...NAO has been negative also another good sign http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro through 72 hours is not as robust with the northern stream feature crossing the intl border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I have seen it - here is the MeteoStar 16 dayer at newark NJ - its heavy rain to heavy wet snow Its a good sign that these coastals are showing up on a regular basis now - all we need is the AO to kick into the negative phase - its been positive since Hurricane Irene came through ...NAO has been negative also another good sign http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR And it's actually accumuating snow, with temps getting into the 20s. It probably would never happen, but it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's still there--and more amplified aloft than the GFS at 84. But it certainly isn't as amplified as the 00z run. The upper low to the north of New England is helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like we are in business on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 It pulls it off, at least the precipitation part. Surface low is 25 miles E of Ocean City MD at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 2m temperatures are roasting so far (40's in the city and 50's in the NJ shore)---the timing is poor this run. The height of the storm is going to occur at 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 sub 996 50 miles off Cape May at 102hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 2m temperatures are roasting so far (40's in the city and 50's in the NJ shore)---the timing is poor this run. The height of the storm is going to occur at 18z Saturday. Probably pretty close to reality if we get a storm then. Snow is not that uncommon in the Poconos and Catskills that time of year, but down here it's incredibly hard to pull off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 And we're in business at 102 hrs, relatively speaking. Surface low is S of LI. 850 temperatures not an issue. NW of the GSP is in the 30's. The city is near 40 but heavy precipitation is falling. H85 temperatures not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Everybody is into the 30's at 108hrs..storm goes literally directly over the 40/70 benchmark. And we start the year right where we left off...with more perfect model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 sub 992 75 miles se of Long Island at 108 hrs. Precip throughout our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 it looked like it was gonna back off but nope.. With the GFS showing improvements at 12z i still have some hope for october flakes 850's down to -4 for all of us at 108 with moderate precip falling or has fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Seriously? Speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Very important to note that the boundary layer temperatures portrayed are poor to begin with. The setup is nice but unfortunately it's like a whole bunch of rain changing to dynamic snow at the very tail end. The interior will fare better and may get some light accumulations. If you have your hopes set higher than that--you're going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Very important to note that the boundary layer temperatures portrayed are poor to begin with. The setup is nice but unfortunately it's like a whole bunch of rain changing to dynamic snow at the very tail end. The interior will fare better and may get some light accumulations. If you have your hopes set higher than that--you're going to be disappointed. on the island, i have zero hope of snow, im just pissed i need to get a halloween costume to begin with, and now ill be freezing in 40 degree rain on sat night. SOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just out of curiousity- what would this translate to if this were late December? 8-12" event for coast? i don't have access to the maps, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Do you really think so? Honestly? With temps in the low to mid 30's, 850's at about -4 and heavy precip? Very important to note that the boundary layer temperatures portrayed are poor to begin with. The setup is nice but unfortunately it's like a whole bunch of rain changing to dynamic snow at the very tail end. The interior will fare better and may get some light accumulations. If you have your hopes set higher than that--you're going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Mentioned it a bit last night--it's a generally smaller and more compact west based NAO but the positive height anomalies stand out pretty well for this time year. All of this is timed so precariously, too...makes you wonder if it just might work out to come closer to the coast. We will see. I made several posts on it yesterday in the other thread Gotcha, have only browsed through this thread really.. And yeah John, it is a cause to wonder at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro shows wintertime thickness and temp profiles. Doesn't matter that it's Oct. It would snow to the coast and in the valley (at least at the end). Of course snow accumulations would still be strongly elevationally dependent with surface temps reluctant to fall through the 30s under 1000ft. But that happens even in the heart of winter. This progged airmass could definitely support snow, albeit marginally. Amazing that the Catskills, Taconics, and Berkshires have two legitimate chances of 4" snowfalls within a 4 day period in late October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro shows wintertime thickness and temp profiles. Doesn't matter that it's Oct. It would snow to the coast and in the valley (at least at the end). Of course snow accumulations would still be strongly elevationally dependent with surface temps reluctant to fall through the 30s under 1000ft. But that happens even in the heart of winter. This progged airmass could definitely support snow, albeit marginally. Amazing that the Catskills, Taconics, and Berkshires have two legitimate chances of 4" snowfalls within a 4 day period in late October! With that exact setup, the euro just showed, I agree. That would be several hours of wet snow, even down to the coast. Accumulations wouls be almost zero though, unless extremely heavy precip rates were occuring under a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anyone have euro total qpf? Tia Just rough numbers, trying to see the general wetness this is capable of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With that exact setup, the euro just showed, I agree. That would be several hours of wet snow, even down to the coast. Accumulations will be almost zero though. Yeah there would almost certainly be no accumulation below 500ft and within 50 miles of the ocean. But once in a while it does happen, when conditions are just perfect - usually at night - with a cold pool aloft and all the dynamical cooling processes working for us. And to have any chance of that semi-miracle occurring, we need a setup similar to the one depicted by the Euro for this weekend. And if it doesn't pan out perfectly, at least maybe the Highlands will be dusted white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wundermap snowfall clown maps for the Euro are still coming out...but through 102 hours most of Northeast NJ has 2-3 inches of snow in the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anyone have euro total qpf? Tia Just rough numbers, trying to see the general wetness this is capable of. It looks like generally an inch or so total liquid, especially NYC and points east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 102 hr. Lightest blue is 2-3" over the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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