RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 60 hours monster deformation band has slammed the entire area. Weenies are flying everywhere on this run. The surface low goes right over the 40/70 benchmark. Wow. im defreezing my weenies.....getting ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That is absolutely Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Earthlight...is that 00z Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Earthlight...is that 00z Sunday? Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 it's gonna be one of those year where if we sneeze, it's gonna snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know a lot of people are disappointed that this isn't happening a month later but things truly do verify like the models indicate, then records will be shattered for any October or even November snowfall amounts in numerous places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If anybody thinks that the exact portrayal of that epic deform band is NOT accumulating snow in NYC, they need to leave this hobby. Lets hope it happens that exact way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow, very impressed by those Euro maps. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 157 users in here and its only October... lol Gonna be a loong winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not for nothing, but this is becoming a bit absurd.. This is what a 1 in 500 year type of map, as depicted.. This just doesn't happen, ever... Earthlight, as depicted could NYC get more than 1" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know a lot of people are disappointed that this isn't happening a month later but things truly do verify like the models indicate, then records will be shattered for any October or even November snowfall amounts in numerous places. tru...but i think most of us arent disappointed. this is historically epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If anybody thinks that the exact portrayal of that epic deform band is NOT accumulating snow in NYC, they need to leave this hobby. Lets hope it happens that exact way. Hopefully you're right but where it snows/accumulates/rains in October is a very fickle thing. I think the stronger models are probably best here given the warm ocean temps, link to the Gulf amd major phase involved. If any storm's going to pull it off, it's likely this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Sweet baby Jesus/fancy Moses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not for nothing, but this is becoming a bit absurd.. This is what a 1 in 500 year type of map, as depicted.. This just doesn't happen, ever... Earthlight, as depicted could NYC get more than 1" of snow? In the SNE thread most believe it would be snow for almost everyone there, so I would imagine that stretches down to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Still a full 2 days before the event so things could still change and I'm not counting on seeing more than a few wet flakes. This is just something that doesn't happen but then again we had an earthquake and a hurricane so why not accumulating snow in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In the words of Austin Powers.... YEAH BABY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It would be fantastic if we could get another snowiest month record. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/snowiestmonths.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What does the timing look like - I think Earthlight indicated that it may be a hair later, which would be good for snow accumulation as there will be less daylight.. Again though, as others have said, daylight, night time, etc.. it probably doesn't matter w/ a deform band such as the one depicted.. As others have said anything more than a coating (on the coast) will be pretty amazing - 2+" would pretty much be a once in a lifetime event.. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 you really think 200 feet will make that much a difference? i thought 500 feet was usually where the significant differences started Yeah especially during the day. The forecast soundings show pretty cold air above 1000ft and stubborn warm air right at sea level. Something like 38F - 33F. I don't know if the vertical temp gradient would be perfectly linear, but I think very small changes in elevation could have a big impact in temp and accumulation potential. Sea level areas could cool for short periods - and even accumulate - but the higher you go, the colder the snow crystals, the colder the air, and the longer the periods of dynamical cooling. Someone in CNJ at 100ft could get hammered with 2" per hour parachute bombs that cover everything in white while at 500ft at HPN airport it's a non-accumulating rain/snow mix. But with respect to any regional location, I expect elevation to play a huge role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Love these convos about local LI topography, and I know you're the man to give accurate insight into that very convo! (love your website, btw) I actually know the people that live on Luftberry Dr. on Roslyn's Harbor Hill at ~360' per Google Earth...and I believe this is the highest elevation on LI on which there are houses. Check out the attached pic looking SE from Roslyn Harbor towards Harbor Hill. Decent elevation there. On more than 1 occasion, I have taken a drive up to the top of the hill in marginal events and it has made a surprisingly huge difference in rain vs. snow and no accumulation vs. accumulation. Pretty neat little microclimate. That's what I like about that Roslyn hill...its a steep drop on the northwest side down to nearly sea level. It would have made a great local ski area if it wasn't developed (and maybe a little less westerly exposure) I think the highest spot behind your friends street might be 370 or 380. The Roslyn homes may or may not be the highest on LI. It's somewhat of a tossup. There are some homes at or above 360 feet around Hartman Hill Road and High Hold Drive in South Huntington. There are also a few on Chichester just to the north of Jayne's Hill that are around 350 feet. "High Hill" in the map below is Jayne's Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not for nothing, but this is becoming a bit absurd.. This is what a 1 in 500 year type of map, as depicted.. This just doesn't happen, ever... Earthlight, as depicted could NYC get more than 1" of snow? Im not sure about the warm streets of the city itself. But on a normal surface the euro as depicted is easily 1-3 inches in the city and more over New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What does the timing look like - I think Earthlight indicated that it may be a hair later, which would be good for snow accumulation as there will be less daylight.. Again though, as others have said, daylight, night time, etc.. it probably doesn't matter w/ a deform band such as the one depicted.. As others have said anything more than a coating (on the coast) will be pretty amazing - 2+" would pretty much be a once in a lifetime event.. jeff I believe the hardest, CCB precip, is falling 18z Saturday until 0z Sunday. So 2pm-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Im not going to post the wunderground snow maps, but they show over 6" of snow for all of NYC and even into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The Clown maps on Wunderground are insane from hr54 to hr63.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 KISP BUFKIT Sounding 2100Z October 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm not sure about midtown south and the urbanized boroughs I think you'd get some slop on the grassy surfaces, especially late in the day towards the end of the storm as surface temps drop below 35F. But everywhere west of there as well as non-urbanized CNJ and possibly Nassau could get 1" or more. That's assuming the actualization of the Euro depiction. I can remember a few April storms in the late 90s where it was raining in midtown with heavy snow on the GWB and in Ft. Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If this were December, then maybe the kicker wave in the Rockies plays a bigger role in booting this out to sea/ not amplifying...be careful what you wish for! This may just be the perfect setup for the perfect situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Based on 1000-850m critical thicknesses..looks like around 21z would be snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know a lot of people are disappointed that this isn't happening a month later but things truly do verify like the models indicate, then records will be shattered for any October or even November snowfall amounts in numerous places. I am glad that the storms from the past two Decembers weren't in October. Glass half full... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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