SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Four inches more than we ever could have hoped for in October Even getting an inch would be incredible and record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS text soundings show all snow for NYC. http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_knyc.txt http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_kfrg.txt ends as snow in farmingdale... All snow JFK! http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yea seriously....we're not talking 1-2 ft here obv...but ANY amount is historic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 HPN snow http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_khpn.txt 35 and .3 of QPF falling in 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Four inches more than we ever could have hoped for in October And your right Im just hoping that I get my slushy coating tonight and some snow for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yea seriously....we're not talking 1-2 ft here obv...but ANY amount is historic here. If the city gets more than .5" it will be a record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_kfrg.txt ends as snow in farmingdale... All snow JFK! http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_kjfk.txt Looking at the skew t and text output, this is not supported till the very end, but hey, I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yea seriously....we're not talking 1-2 ft here obv...but ANY amount is historic here. I think we have had 2 snowfalls in the last 100 years that accumulated in October..it's even rare to get a trace..be happy with a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Four inches more than we ever could have hoped for in October That would annihilate every single record for NYC that's ever been kept regarding snow in October OR November. 4 inches of wet snow any time of the year is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking at the skew t and text output, this is not supported till the very end, but hey, I'm hopeful. Skew t and sounding show a shallow layer of warmth, right near the surface. And even that is 38 dropping to 31, which is not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 43 deg. up here at KSWF. Yeah it's getting cold up here. Dropping into the low 40s up in the Valley. Valleys not much warmer than ridge towns. Monticello 41, Poughkeepsie 42. Binghampton 39, Pittsfield 38, Albany 38. More of a north/south gradient. And it's mid-day. Probably some snow now in the Catskills. Adirondack high peaks dropping through the 20s. Mt Washington in the teens. Chilly airmass moving in right before a possible coastal storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think we have had 2 snowfalls in the last 100 years that accumulated in October..it's even rare to get a trace..be happy with a coating a little different for imby and yours though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking at the skew t and text output, this is not supported till the very end, but hey, I'm hopeful. It wouldn't be snow at the temps indicated, but the warm layer at the ground must be very thin. The large GFS grid size might not take into account cooling like the Euro may. In CAD situations, the GFS is always the least preferable model to use. It could very easily really be 35 or 34F, and the large GFS grids might not see it or "smooth" it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Havent seen unc post anything yet on NYC October snowfalls October 26, 1859 - New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Better look at the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah it's getting cold up here. Dropping into the low 40s up in the Valley. Valleys not much warmer than ridge towns. Monticello 41, Poughkeepsie 42. Binghampton 39, Pittsfield 38, Albany 38. More of a north/south gradient. And it's mid-day. Probably some snow now in the Catskills. Adirondack high peaks dropping through the 20s. Mt Washington in the teens. Chilly airmass moving in right before a possible coastal storm! Yeah down to 40* here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Game on, boys. It looks like every GFS ensemble member is west and probably wetter than the operational. And the majority of them show nearly perfect tracks. HPC progs are going to show a high probability of 1" snow for the PHL and NYC immediate NW burbs. And the individual offices will have to take notice. Below 1000ft, snowfall accumulations could double every 200ft (.5, 1, 2, 4, 8). If the GFS/UK/Euro are correct, many towns from SEPa to EMa would break their pre-December snowfall records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah down to 40* here.. 48 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It looks like every GFS ensemble member is west and probably wetter than the operational. And the majority of them show nearly perfect tracks. HPC progs are going to show a high probability of 1" snow for the PHL and NYC immediate NW burbs. And the individual offices will have to take notice. Below 1000ft, snowfall accumulations could double every 200ft (.5, 1, 2, 4, 8). If the GFS/UK/Euro are correct, many towns from SEPa to EMa would break their pre-December snowfall records. you really think 200 feet will make that much a difference? i thought 500 feet was usually where the significant differences started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro roughly the same through 48 hr. Maybe a hair more amplified with heights on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice pattern... Instead of breaking down that block actually maintained and this has helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro is slightly closer to the coast and stronger than 00z at 54 hours. Upper air charts very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 60 hours monster deformation band has slammed the entire area. Weenies are flying everywhere on this run. The surface low goes right over the 40/70 benchmark. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Instead of breaking down that block actually maintained and this has helped. Great improvement on the GFS since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro is a little later to. More intense than GFS, appears colder at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 60 hours monster deformation band has slammed the entire area. Weenies are flying everywhere on this run. The surface low goes right over the 40/70 benchmark. Wow. WHY CAN'T THIS BE DECEMBER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_kfrg.txt ends as snow in farmingdale... All snow JFK! http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_kjfk.txt Not surprised the ptype would be listed as snow with those low 1000-500mb thickness values. 530s!! And I don't doubt that it would be mostly wet snow/mix. But surface temps are really warm. Even the minimum values. Huge parachute flakes would accumulate at 36F. But Yonkers or Patterson, NJ could fair so much better than Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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