Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You see what the right wind direction can do for you? We have been dropping through the 50's and now into the 40's at 1PM with no precip falling over the last couple hours. Let the storm happen the way it's depicted, move it maybe a few hours forward, and we can at least pull off a coating down to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's going to snow. feels like someone pressed the play button from January after pausing it for 10 months. Great thread fellas. good to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the expectations will probably be really high this winter if this comes to fruition. Talk about setting the bar high.... a significant winter event in late October.. that is one helluva' way to start things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You see what the right wind direction can do for you? We have been dropping through the 50's and now into the 40's at 1PM with no precip falling over the last couple hours. Let the storm happen the way it's depicted, move it maybe a few hours forward, and we can at least pull off a coating down to the coast. 43 deg. up here at KSWF. 1 PM obs. NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-271800- NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 49 48 97 NE8 29.66F FOG LAGUARDIA APRT LGT RAIN 49 46 90 NE10 29.64F FOG KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 51 48 89 NE10 29.64F NEWARK/LIBERTY DRIZZLE 50 47 89 N9 29.64F FOG TETERBORO LGT RAIN 48 47 96 N7 29.64F FOG WHITE PLAINS LGT RAIN 46 43 89 NE6 29.63F FOG $$ NYZ177-179-078>081-271800- LONG ISLAND NEW YORK CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS FARMINGDALE CLOUDY 49 48 97 NE7 29.63F ISLIP DRIZZLE 50 47 89 NE8 29.62F SHIRLEY LGT RAIN 49 47 93 VRB6 29.63F WESTHAMPTON LGT RAIN 49 47 93 NE9 29.64F FOG MONTAUK POINT NOT AVBL $$ NYZ052-065-067-271800- HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH LGT RAIN 43 41 93 NE10 29.68F FOG MONTGOMERY LGT RAIN 42 41 96 NE10 29.67F FOG POUGHKEEPSIE LGT RAIN 42 40 92 N10 29.69F FOG ALBANY LGT RAIN 38 36 92 N12 29.75F WCI 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 feels like someone pressed the play button from January after pausing it for 10 months. Great thread fellas. good to be back. are you up in the hills of NJ? 12z euro, could be more porn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the expectations will probably be really high this winter if this comes to fruition. Talk about setting the bar high.... a significant winter event in late October.. that is one helluva' way to start things off. When was the last time NYC saw accumulating snow in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 By the way, anyone think the storm may actually be on the coast, instead of offshore by Saturday. The gfs brought it close to shore on the last run, the NW trend may not be over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 realistically only the forky/earthlight NJ group (I think Loko and Doug are in that), up into rockland and orange county could see anything out of this on the 12z runs, regardless what the clown maps say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 By the way, anyone think the storm may actually be on the coast, instead of offshore by Saturday. The gfs brought it close to shore on the last run, the NW trend may not be over yet. Severely doubt it given the blocking over the Davis Strait, this storm will definitely be offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Some extra octane thrown in for good measure out by the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 are you up in the hills of NJ? 12z euro, could be more porn... No I am between C=NJ and Brookyn and am not expecting anything more than some wet snow or maybe coating on cars and grass, but its nice to track such a system in October. Folks north and west may have a nice white Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Climactically speaking, where would you guys say gets the most snow within 20-25 miles of Midtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 realistically only the forky/earthlight NJ group (I think Loko and Doug are in that), up into rockland and orange county could see anything out of this on the 12z runs, regardless what the clown maps say. The GFS is probably still too far SE given what the ensembles say, and other models seem more favorable and are catching upto the Euro. With the amount of dynamics a bombing storm can bring and marginal, -3 or -4 850s, snow might be flying at one time or another everywhere. Accumulations as you mentioned are a different story. Some of the hilly Long Island areas could pick up close to a few inches or so under the right conditions. Obviously the more we can get this to hit at night the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Some extra octane thrown in for good measure out by the BM. Great point. This storm could really turn into a monster, more than models currently show because of the warm waters and cold land temps. That could really fuel a nor'easter like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No I am between C=NJ and Brookyn and am not expecting anything more than some wet snow or maybe coating on cars and grass, but its nice to track such a system in October. Folks north and west may have a nice white Halloween yea...the turnpike line from CNJ to NYC will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Since you want to be precise, Jayne's Hill is indeed a hair over 400 feet. There are also quite a few more than 3 or 4 hills over 300 feet, but you are correct about where the majority lies. There are a few houses in West Hills that sit between 360 and 380 feet. There are a few at a similar elevation in Roslyn. I think those are the highest residences you will find anywhere on the island. My sister's house in Huntington is a little shy of 300 feet and there are plenty of areas close to that elevation scattered across the morraines. I have noticed on several occasions that being a mile or so in from the sound (and higher) actually makes a significant difference from being right next to the sound in marginal events. On the other hand, we could be talking about a warmer profile over Long Island simply because of proximity to the storm, which might overwhelm elevation even if we had much higher elevations. FYI, I am at 125 feet. High spot in my neighborhood is about 180 feet a quarter mile to my NW and lowspot is less than10 feet about a mile to the south (Nissequogue River). i used to live about 2 miles from that hill, used to go up there, and its true, during marginal events, the snow did actually accumulate more up there. We used to run up that hill for track practice, went to whitman down on west hills road, very hilly area. I know there was some discrepancy whether the hill was actually 400 or less, i thought 399.6 or something. My elevation in roslyn heights/albertson area around 150 for some reason, maybe in combination with being further north and in the woods, is a lot cooler than 3 miles south down in hempstead, which is 75 feet lower i believe, and the snow sticks earlier, etc. OT i know. BTW, i recommend all LI'ers check out Jayne's hill, beautiful area, and the summit has a big boulder on top, surrounded by benches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 When was the last time NYC saw accumulating snow in October? 59 years ago. Mickey Mantle's first full season with the Yankees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 We spoke about this last night but it probably got buried (the conversation happened around 3 am after the Euro)...but Newark's all time October snowfall record is 0.3". It will be cool if we can get things to work out here and break the record for snowiest October of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Maybe we can all take a trip to the top of the Empire State Building with snow shovels in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Climactically speaking, where would you guys say gets the most snow within 20-25 miles of Midtown? In NJ it's probably somewhere near Oakland. West Milford seems to be the jackpot zone for the area, but that's a little further than 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Game on, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We spoke about this last night but it probably got buried (the conversation happened around 3 am after the Euro)...but Newark's all time October snowfall record is 0.3". It will be cool if we can get things to work out here and break the record for snowiest October of all time. Barely two weeks ago it was almost 90 degrees. Gotta love October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In NJ it's probably somewhere near Oakland. West Milford seems to be the jackpot zone for the area, but that's a little further than 25 miles. Franklin Lakes is a bit better because Oakland is in the valley. Franklin Lakes is up the hill and many locations within the town are 500-800ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Game on, boys. Holy ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 such a small spread....crazy, this might just happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow, GEFS is really honking now and the OP agrees. We just need the euro to stay online, and I think were good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS text soundings show all snow for NYC. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Game on, boys. for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS text soundings show all snow for NYC. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_knyc.txt If you take everything into consideration thats probably 4-5" tops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you take everything into consideration thats probably 4-5" tops.. Four inches more than we ever could have hoped for in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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