ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z Ukie. .75"-1" of precip just from hour 54-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 per 'WeatherX ukie 12z FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKIE seems to be a bit S and E of the GFS, probably another big hit for Earthlight and Forky that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Let's set a record for the amouny of times we post the ukie maps. GO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So do we all agree, most of long island sees nothing but rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKIE seems to be a bit S and E of the GFS, probably another big hit for Earthlight and Forky that run. But its much wetter. No 6 hour period of the GFS bought .75"-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So do we all agree, most of long island sees nothing but rain? Why do you keep on saying this? We will all likely start off as rain but when the dynamics come into efffect, we will change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's really cool to see the dates line up so closely. http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_17731.html?from=blog_permalink_month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont really see anyone saying snow for long island. seems like that would require a perfect solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GGEM looks good. The low further east than the GFS and Euro but the precip field is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 theres not one spot on the island at 400, the highest is jayne's hill in south huntington at like 399, but there are maybe 3-4 hills over 300, the majority of the north shore is between 125 and 225, which makes just about no difference...and a northeast wind blows across the lukewarm long island sound...which in marginal situations, makes a huge difference Since you want to be precise, Jayne's Hill is indeed a hair over 400 feet. There are also quite a few more than 3 or 4 hills over 300 feet, but you are correct about where the majority lies. There are a few houses in West Hills that sit between 360 and 380 feet. There are a few at a similar elevation in Roslyn. I think those are the highest residences you will find anywhere on the island. My sister's house in Huntington is a little shy of 300 feet and there are plenty of areas close to that elevation scattered across the morraines. I have noticed on several occasions that being a mile or so in from the sound (and higher) actually makes a significant difference from being right next to the sound in marginal events. On the other hand, we could be talking about a warmer profile over Long Island simply because of proximity to the storm, which might overwhelm elevation even if we had much higher elevations. FYI, I am at 125 feet. High spot in my neighborhood is about 180 feet a quarter mile to my NW and lowspot is less than10 feet about a mile to the south (Nissequogue River). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Funny see see GFS almost take this into a full blown Miller A now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 theres not one spot on the island at 400, the highest is jayne's hill in south huntington at like 399, but there are maybe 3-4 hills over 300, the majority of the north shore is between 125 and 225, which makes just about no difference...and a northeast wind blows across the lukewarm long island sound...which in marginal situations, makes a huge difference Jayne's Hill is 401 feet, just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont really see anyone saying snow for long island. seems like that would require a perfect solution. And what kind of solution does the rest of the area need to get accumulating snow in October? Being surrounded by low 60's water does pose an additional problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And what kind of solution does the rest of the area need to get accumulating snow in October? Being surrounded by low 60's water does pose an additional problem. a near perfect solution.... so what i mean is, while some of the hills just N and W of the city need a NEAR perfect solution....LI needs a flat out perfect solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Holy mother of god :o :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 a near perfect solution.... so what i mean is, while some of the hills just N and W of the city need a NEAR perfect solution....LI needs a flat out perfect solution. I have to agree that our challenges are greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Holy mother of god :o :o ? Moderate rain for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 500 mb spaghetti plots of the 12Z GFS ensembles look fairly consistant. The height field of the operational is pretty close to the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Holy mother of god :o :o that is an amped up ensemble mean...geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Holy mother of god :o :o Can we save that and tell it to come back in a month? Blizzard watches would be hoisted with a map like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that is an amped up ensemble mean...geez Which means that the OP is probably too progressive here. Looks actually fairly substantially more amplified than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ? Moderate rain for NYC The best part is is that you can't even get yourself to use the word heavy; if that is just "moderate rain" then I am Santa Claus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can we save that and tell it to come back in a month? Blizzard watches would be hoisted with a map like that! Too bad the date can't be 12/26 again. That would be widespread 1-2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad the date can't be 12/26 again. That would be widespread 1-2 feet of snow. yes, it is turning into a classic setup but its October. It was hard to get real snow in Ithaca during Oct let alone NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I still find it hard to believe that any of the lower elevations get more than a few flakes, that's all I'm really hoping for my are anyway. This could be a record breaker for higher elevations, NW NJ though. Pretty cool to see this unfold so early. Saturday's high provided by weather.com for east brunswick, nj is 48F, low 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes, it is turning into a classic setup but its October. It was hard to get real snow in Ithaca during Oct let alone NYC. It's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have to agree that our challenges are greater. yea...i wasnt trying to be a downer or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Since you want to be precise, Jayne's Hill is indeed a hair over 400 feet. There are also quite a few more than 3 or 4 hills over 300 feet, but you are correct about where the majority lies. There are a few houses in West Hills that sit between 360 and 380 feet. There are a few at a similar elevation in Roslyn. I think those are the highest residences you will find anywhere on the island. My sister's house in Huntington is a little shy of 300 feet and there are plenty of areas close to that elevation scattered across the morraines. I have noticed on several occasions that being a mile or so in from the sound (and higher) actually makes a significant difference from being right next to the sound in marginal events. On the other hand, we could be talking about a warmer profile over Long Island simply because of proximity to the storm, which might overwhelm elevation even if we had much higher elevations. FYI, I am at 125 feet. High spot in my neighbor hood is about 180 feet a quarter mile to my NW and lowspot is less than10 feet about a mile to the south (Nissequogue River). Love these convos about local LI topography, and I know you're the man to give accurate insight into that very convo! (love your website, btw) I actually know the people that live on Luftberry Dr. on Roslyn's Harbor Hill at ~360' per Google Earth...and I believe this is the highest elevation on LI on which there are houses. Check out the attached pic looking SE from Roslyn Harbor towards Harbor Hill. Decent elevation there. On more than 1 occasion, I have taken a drive up to the top of the hill in marginal events and it has made a surprisingly huge difference in rain vs. snow and no accumulation vs. accumulation. Pretty neat little microclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes, it is turning into a classic setup but its October. It was hard to get real snow in Ithaca during Oct let alone NYC. You're trolling this thread and trying to spoil it for the rest of us who are excited about Saturday. Please go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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