ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Probably wise for them to be at this stage. Those weenie Euro maps from last night that showed several inches or more snow even at the coast have like a 1 in 500 chance of happening. In terms of impact near the coast wind/waves/flooding would be a much greater threat than snow but the first flakes of the season will be awesome to see regardless. Any accums would be a huge bonus. Ukie and JMA as well. Looks like the 4DVAR models are in one camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yea, i dont mind conservative forecasts.....its usually the best line to take. i guess i dont see the text discussion as a straight up forecast but more of a thought process from the office per say...so when i read a vague discussion, im not thrilled with it, regardless if its snow, rain, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Through 30 hours the GFS is once again more amplified than the 00z run (it's last non off-hour run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS has a surface low trying to form/get organized over the florida pan handle at 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Also is showing marked improvements at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 The phase looks to be occurring slightly later this run but the entire trough is more amplified. The heights on the east coast are buckling much more in response to the pattern amplification to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow has the GFS caught on. Excellent VV's starting to pop across the midatlantic to the coast of NJ as cyclogenesis begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks fiarly similar to the Euro height field at 42 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Beautiful RH field expansion on the GFS, much better than the NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 1008 MB low off the carolina coast heading NE now. Man if this were two weeks from now board would be crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 That is an awesome H5 depiction at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A classic, beautful progression with phase, trough amplification, surface low cyclogenesis, and then precipitation. Awesome run. Again, strictly speaking synoptics here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 awesome run, it appears.. excellent negative tilting with a very short wavelength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Storm is occurring at the worst possible time on the GFS as well..looks like 18-00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like another difference is instead of the straits block breaking down, it actually strengthens now which causes the whole flow to buckle over Canada which has helped to increase heights out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Awesome phase ongoing with a nice feed from the Gulf at 48 hr. Huge precip blossom over VA/Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice storm on GFS but it looks warmer then the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 How are the winds looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Storm is occurring at the worst possible time on the GFS as well..looks like 18-00z Saturday. Well, two things on that 1) Sun angle is low 2) It radiates and then clouds up Saturdau overnight into morning. We may get cloudy before temps rise too much Holy crap at the evolution of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's got more energy digging into the base of the trough over the SE this run from just 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 At 54 hours its beginning to catch on to the dynamic cooling...there's an area of 32 F temps showing up in NE PA and NW NJ. 40 F goes from Queens/Nassau Co border and southwest from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 wow... nice.. temps look really marginal though... it's about a nice a model run you can get for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 IDK, hour 54 and 57 might warrant a classic mother of god post by earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Through 57 hours, the GFS has 0.5" of frozen qpf on stormvista algorithms west of NYC. It's picking up on the sharp cutoff east of the city, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 IDK, hour 54 and 57 might warrant a classic mother of god post by earthlight. :stun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Will throw up soundings and skew-t's as they come out on plymouth. Its just awesome to see this, rain or snow, it really comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 At 54 hours its beginning to catch on to the dynamic cooling...there's an area of 32 F temps showing up in NE PA and NW NJ. 40 F goes from Queens/Nassau Co border and southwest from there. yea. at 60, you gotta think that a lot of this is wet snow, even in the immediate burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yea. at 60, you gotta think that a lot of this is wet snow, even in the immediate burbs NYC is very close to snow sooner. At hour 57, as the CCB is cranking over them, surface temps crash and precip continues to fall through the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 KNYC, 54 hours, all the way through 955 surface is warm but could cool down to about 1 to 2c. Here is the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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