SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I remember in 1995 up in Orange County we had an early season noreaster than laid down 4 inches before it flipped to rain. This preceeded the Nov 28th storm. It actually snowed down into Westchester and rockland too but didn't accumulate down there IIRC. It smoked vermont and upstate ny when all was said and done. I remember thinking at the time, man, I wonder if its a good or bad thing we are getting noreasters this early. The rest is history. NOT SAYING we are due for that kind of winter, but boy it sure feels good tracking storms this early. Often times an active storm track in October or November is a good sign, but there are some years where that has not worked such as 1996 which was very active and that winter was terrible for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Often times an active storm track in October or November is a good sign, but there are some years where that has not worked such as 1996 which was very active and that winter was terrible for the most part. yeah, I remember that too. It does go both ways, but I would prefer this over 70 degrees and SE ridges from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thx Looks like it's been almost 60 years since we've seen any type of accumulation at Central Park. Hopefully we can squeeze out a little something to finally break that streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 1944 had a trace of snow on this date...It could be a good temperature analog for this season...January 45 was very cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like it's been almost 60 years since we've seen any type of accumulation at Central Park. Hopefully we can squeeze out a little something to finally break that streak. 1962, 1972, 1979 and 2002 had some small accumulations in parts of the city...Central Park recorded a trace all four times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Jb says 3-6 locally 10 which is 100% not happening but he says winds can gust to 60 will winds be that strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Guys, try and keep on topic. Doing a swell job otherwise discussing the storm. (all except one,mm hmmm cough cough mm hmmm) Just wanted to say nice work to the overnight crew, getting all that info out. Anyone have access to the euro ens spaghetti plots? Read the mean was pretty ampd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 9Z SREF Mean and spread, lots of lefties in there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So, it has snowed in Central Park with a Trace or more in October since record keeping began (1868) 18 times. Out of those 18 times, our average snowfall for the season is 25.58 inches. This does not seem to be the canary in the coal mine I thought it would be. Out of 18 seasons, only 7 seasons have had above average snowfall. Out of those, only 3 seasons have had over 40 inches of snow. The most snowfall we've ever had when NYC has received a Trace of snowfall in the city was 1960-1961 and that was 54.7 inches. On the flip side, 1972-1973 received only 2.8 inches. Only 3 seasons have ever had above a trace of snowfall in NYC in October. 1876-1877: 0.5 inches - 40.4 inches 1925-1926: 0.8 inches - 32.4 inches 1952-1953: 0.5 inches - 15.1 inches We have NEVER had more than 0.8 inches of snow in NYC in October since record keeping began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Guys, try and keep on topic. Doing a swell job otherwise discussing the storm. (all except one,mm hmmm cough cough mm hmmm) Just wanted to say nice work to the overnight crew, getting all that info out. Anyone have access to the euro ens spaghetti plots? Read the mean was pretty ampd Whenever the ensemble means of a model are further west than the OP, it's usually a red flag. Ensemble means are smoothed out over dozens of other variations, and are usually flatter than an OP run. I remember that happening with the 12/26 storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 srefs however torch the surface for the city the whole time. Upper 30's and low 40's, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Whenever the ensemble means of a model are further west than the OP, it's usually a red flag. Ensemble means are smoothed out over dozens of other variations, and are usually flatter than an OP run. I remember that happening with the 12/26 storm last year. I had euro spaghetti access last year leading up to 12/26 and wow was it like night and day looking at the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 srefs however torch the surface for the city the whole time. Upper 30's and low 40's, Well, the problem there is its a mean, so the members that miss will have no dymanic cooling. 850's are -4 to -6. I would imagine its like everything else, where it rips, it will get down to lower mid 30's, where it doesnt, it will be closer to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Jb says 3-6 locally 10 which is 100% not happening but he says winds can gust to 60 will winds be that strong Where exactly did JB say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Whenever the ensemble means of a model are further west than the OP, it's usually a red flag. Ensemble means are smoothed out over dozens of other variations, and are usually flatter than an OP run. I remember that happening with the 12/26 storm last year. I'm familiar with that aspect. But i was wondering if it was just a few amp'd members skewing , or if it was an actual majority of the individuals that were west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 are the individual members, still a lot of misses, which messes things up. here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 check out the 850 low on ARW2. That would be an insanse deform band over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Post 1183 is jbs 3am map from weather bell I am just wondering if those winds are possible http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=27519&st=1180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah,these members are more in line with the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah,these members are more in line with the 0z Euro. look at you and your fancy cut and paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12Z NAM already coming in more amplified and stronger with southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12Z NAM already coming in more amplified and stronger with southern stream energy. you pulling it up on Storm Vista? Something seems to be wrong... it would appear it already came out, but looks like yesterdays maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Also looking at various 500mb maps from the models, it almost appears some of the sub-pv rotating in canada is breaking off and coming down into the trough courtesy of the block, it could be the reason we are seeing the amplification even though the setup is generally a little 'flat" looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 you pulling it up on Storm Vista? Something seems to be wrong... it would appear it already came out, but looks like yesterdays maps. vista is messed up on the NAM there feed is broken. Running it on NCEP, it comes out almost as fast as vista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 look at you and your fancy cut and paste job. iPhoto FTW...hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I remember in 1995 up in Orange County we had an early season noreaster than laid down 4 inches before it flipped to rain. This preceeded the Nov 28th storm. It actually snowed down into Westchester and rockland too but didn't accumulate down there IIRC. It smoked vermont and upstate ny when all was said and done. I remember thinking at the time, man, I wonder if its a good or bad thing we are getting noreasters this early. The rest is history. NOT SAYING we are due for that kind of winter, but boy it sure feels good tracking storms this early. LOL, yep I remember that storm as well and had, and are having, the same thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So, it has snowed in Central Park with a Trace or more in October since record keeping began (1868) 18 times. Out of those 18 times, our average snowfall for the season is 25.58 inches. This does not seem to be the canary in the coal mine I thought it would be. Out of 18 seasons, only 7 seasons have had above average snowfall. Out of those, only 3 seasons have had over 40 inches of snow. The most snowfall we've ever had when NYC has received a Trace of snowfall in the city was 1960-1961 and that was 54.7 inches. On the flip side, 1972-1973 received only 2.8 inches. Only 3 seasons have ever had above a trace of snowfall in NYC in October. 1876-1877: 0.5 inches - 40.4 inches 1925-1926: 0.8 inches - 32.4 inches 1952-1953: 0.5 inches - 15.1 inches We have NEVER had more than 0.8 inches of snow in NYC in October since record keeping began. LGA had 1.2" in 1962 and JFK 0.5"...I saw a dusting on grassy surfaces in East New York Brooklyn in 1972 and another dusting near my house on 64th St in 1979...I had a dusting of sleet on two consecutive evenings on Staten Island in 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Might have been the November 14th noreaster. State College, PA had 17" of snow with temps hovering at 32-33 the entire event. Just 3 days prior we were in the 60s and an incredibly strong cold front moved through with 80 mph wind gusts. We went from 58 and rain to 34 with 1" of snow on the ground less than 4 hours later. The odd thing about that was it was basically the start of winter and a pretty crazy 60 day period. The snow pretty much shut off out there by mid January as the Feb noreasters that hit the east coast missed the interior. I remember in 1995 up in Orange County we had an early season noreaster than laid down 4 inches before it flipped to rain. This preceeded the Nov 28th storm. It actually snowed down into Westchester and rockland too but didn't accumulate down there IIRC. It smoked vermont and upstate ny when all was said and done. I remember thinking at the time, man, I wonder if its a good or bad thing we are getting noreasters this early. The rest is history. NOT SAYING we are due for that kind of winter, but boy it sure feels good tracking storms this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 great loop of the NAM showing the classic davis straight block and pv/sub-pv rotating around the block into 50/50 position and then up and out from there. Also watch a little energy off the back side of the pv dive into the trough. Beautiful. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F27%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Often times an active storm track in October or November is a good sign, but there are some years where that has not worked such as 1996 which was very active and that winter was terrible for the most part. And 1972. Trace of snow October 19, 1972. And then very active track, huge rainstorm on November 8, 1972 and rain-to-snow on, I believe, November 15, 1972 or thereabouts. And very deep cold November 22-23, 1972. And guess what followed in terms of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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