jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 When the Euro lurches west like that within its "wheelhouse" timeframe (72-96 hr), and you see other models come west towards it, it's almost time to lock it in. Very, very exciting. This could be a massive storm with coastal flooding/wind impacts in addition to the snow/rain. Just the temp contrast alone between the sea and land, and deep fetch this could receive from the Gulf and whatever remnants of Rina make this a big time threat. I'm pumped!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I guess Upton and mt holly aren't looking at new data. Both have upper 40s for highs on Saturday pretty much area wide Mid to upper 40s?! Seriously? Can you please show me one piece of data that's less than 18 hours old that shows this? Unless by "the city" you are referring to Washington, DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yes, it is amazing. Them and the major news people have been amazing not even mentioning the possibility. Unreal really. I guess Upton and mt holly aren't looking at new data. Both have upper 40s for highs on Saturday pretty much area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not really... I don't even really have a physical explanation for why the ECWMF weakens Rina so much in the next 24-48 hours. Shear remains fairly low and only really starts rapidly increasing beyond 48 hours to a magnitude that can induce weakening. The ECWMF pretty much from the get go is forecasting rapid degeneration, and this does not seem likely at least during the first 48 hours of the forecast. Euro destroyed the GFS with the handling of Rina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I guess Upton and mt holly aren't looking at new data. Both have upper 40s for highs on Saturday pretty much area wide If I had to look at a consensus of hard data right now, my forecasted daytime high would be 39 for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx Go to climate, local, down to snowfall, monthly & annual. Only giving me 1981 - 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gentlemen, what can we do to delay this storm's arrival by 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro destroyed the GFS with the handling of Rina. And Rina died a very quick death since his post on the storm which is likely why the GFS is coming around now in addition to it handling the vorts better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gentlemen, what can we do to delay this storm's arrival by 6 hours? I'll work on it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Only giving me 1981 - 2010? I get it all the way back to 1869. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And Rina died a very quick death since his post on the storm which is likely why the GFS is coming around now in addition to it handling the vorts better. Part of it also I'm sure is the horrible handling of the vorts from the models over the Pacific. This surely isn't the first time a storm has "disappeared" and come back to life when vorts move over/off monitoring areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Part of it also I'm sure is the horrible handling of the vorts from the models over the Pacific. This surely isn't the first time a storm has "disappeared" and come back to life when vorts move over/off monitoring areas. absolutely. Both are to blame. The Euro seems to really excel with its 4DVAR scheme in handling those vorts, even though it does lose them a little right before they hit shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If I had to look at a consensus of hard data right now, my forecasted daytime high would be 39 for Sat. sounds about right to me.. forecasted 2M dewpoints on the GFS looks like it is in the upper 30's.. so long as it is precipitating at a decent rate, that should be about right. If we miss out on some of the heavy QPF, we'll probably sneak into the lower 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Another thing, if this storm does come to fruition in terms of track and track only, gotta hand it to those ARW Sref members all the way at 87 hours, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GFS can't compare with the Ukie, JMA or Euorpean. The GFS is a horrible model. It is very sad. Euro destroyed the GFS with the handling of Rina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GFS can't compare with the Ukie, JMA or Euorpean. The GFS is a horrible model. It is very sad. Hold on there cowboy, lets take a step back. JMA outside of 3 days is not good verification wise. Euro and Ukie are superior in general for 500mb verification but they all take turns at the top at some point. Models excel at different time depending on patterns and biases. But don't just say its horrible. It has come around greatly and they get all they can out of the model without it being 4DVAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hold on there cowboy, lets take a step back. JMA outside of 3 days is not good verification wise. Euro and Ukie are superior in general for 500mb verification but they all take turns at the top at some point. Models excel at different time depending on patterns and biases. But don't just say its horrible. It has come around greatly and they get all they can out of the model without it being 4DVAR. Good post. The GFS is really not so bad. Has its days. But to say that the JMA is better is just insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hold on there cowboy, lets take a step back. JMA outside of 3 days is not good verification wise. Euro and Ukie are superior in general for 500mb verification but they all take turns at the top at some point. Models excel at different time depending on patterns and biases. But don't just say its horrible. It has come around greatly and they get all they can out of the model without it being 4DVAR. This JMA "fad" started with the 2/12/06 storm and some have never denied it since. In terms of accuracy, I'd place it about where the NOGAPS is. It's definitely a second rate model all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This JMA "fad" started with the 2/12/06 storm and some have never denied it since. In terms of accuracy, I'd place it about where the NOGAPS is. It's definitely a second rate model all around. The JMA is actually 4DVAR but physics wise its behind by a lot. There is also a mesoscale version of it that is used over-seas. Three days and under the JMA scores improve greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 all the models have their strong and weak points.. Even the NAM has some strong points in terms of being able to pick up on situations of cold air damming during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I get it all the way back to 1869. Can you copy and paste the url? I'm not doing something right. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Can you copy and paste the url? I'm not doing something right. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This JMA "fad" started with the 2/12/06 storm and some have never denied it since. In terms of accuracy, I'd place it about where the NOGAPS is. It's definitely a second rate model all around. Ah, yes. "For entertainment purposes only." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This JMA "fad" started with the 2/12/06 storm and some have never denied it since. In terms of accuracy, I'd place it about where the NOGAPS is. It's definitely a second rate model all around. It also did well with the 12/5/03 storm and 12/26 last year, it seems it does better as far as East Coast storms than systems elsewhere across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It has consistently been better with the big storms that affect this area. Better than the GFS this time and many other times as well. Good post. The GFS is really not so bad. Has its days. But to say that the JMA is better is just insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....onsnowfall.html Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I remember in 1995 up in Orange County we had an early season noreaster than laid down 4 inches before it flipped to rain. This preceeded the Nov 28th storm. It actually snowed down into Westchester and rockland too but didn't accumulate down there IIRC. It smoked vermont and upstate ny when all was said and done. I remember thinking at the time, man, I wonder if its a good or bad thing we are getting noreasters this early. The rest is history. NOT SAYING we are due for that kind of winter, but boy it sure feels good tracking storms this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 As a side note, I didn't realize Rutgers was so special for that October '08 snowfall. I remember the event fairly well in New Brunswick (the sound of trees/branches cracking could be heard all around campus) but I didn't realize it was that localized and that everyone knew it happened here. /random Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This could be very much like the 12/9/05 event, albeit a totally diifferent synoptic setup, but the snow gradient going from several inches to nothing may be similar with a shift about 20-30 miles NW of where it was in that event. Its possible there could be 4 inches in Yonkers and nothing at Yankee stadium. In 2008-2009, there was a snow event where at work in Bayside, Queens, I had 4-5" of snow everywhere, including streets. And 4 miles to the west from LGA to Astoria and into NYC, there was ZERO accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I remember in 1995 up in Orange County we had an early season noreaster than laid down 4 inches before it flipped to rain. It actually snowed down into Westchester and rockland too but didn't accumulate down there IIRC. It smoked vermont and upstate ny when all was said and done. I remember thinking at the time, man, I wonder if its a good or bad thing we are getting noreasters this early. The rest is history. NOT SAYING we are due for that kind of winter, but boy it sure feels good tracking storms this early. It snows in Rockland?? hmmm.. Someone give me a 1/7/96 redux please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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