TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6Z GFS sounding and the solution is east with the best dynamics stil. This is NYC. This would probably be wet snow with surface about 3c with some room to cool. And remember, the 6z gfs has the mid levels a little too east to get the best deform, so there is hope here. N and W its easily snow and of course up on the hilltops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow this thread is almost unreadable, everyone needs to read uptons disco for a reality check. Why has this troll not been 5-posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey Noreaster, have you seen the overnight models? This thread has been great. yes they now bring more rain saturday then the models were showing on Wed. Did you read uptons overnight AFD, everything is well explained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow this thread is almost unreadable, everyone needs to read uptons disco for a reality check. the thread reads just fine til this post, especially since a lot of it was WillORH and earthlight, two well respected people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6z ensembles almost all west of op. deform band should bring accumulation to somone in the n and w viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the thread reads just fine til this post, especially since a lot of it was WillORH and earthlight, two well respected people. No, they're wrong. They are not 100% dismissing snow. Don't you know that has to be wrong, even if it were January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No, they're wrong. They are not 100% dismissing snow. Don't you know that has to be wrong, even if it were January? I agree with you as do other's privately, lets just talk about this storm and let him sit and spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 White Plains is easily snow on the 6z gfs, especially with heavier precip and would probably accumulate if a few of the 6z ensembles and euro verified. That is how close we are talking. Alphy5 in the hills of greenwich and to the north and w of there would do well for the end of October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The city will be in the mid to upper 40s during the day on Saturday with periods of moderate rain, maybe some snow will mix in to our friends North and West but for the areas closer to the coast, its just a raw october day. High point NJ can maybe eek out a a few inches of snow if everything comes together just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6z ensembles almost all west of op. deform band should bring accumulation to somone in the n and w viewing area. Wow, a few really amped members are in the mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The city will be in the mid to upper 40s during the day on Saturday with periods of moderate rain, maybe some snow will mix in to our friends North and West but for the areas closer to the coast, its just a raw october day. High point NJ can maybe eek out a a few inches of snow if everything comes together just right. Haven't you heard of dynamical cooling? Sure, it'll start as rain, but temps will drop throughout the day, allowing for a change to snow, even if the changeover is brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The city will be in the mid to upper 40s during the day on Saturday with periods of moderate rain, maybe some snow will mix in to our friends North and West but for the areas closer to the coast, its just a raw october day. High point NJ can maybe eek out a a few inches of snow if everything comes together just right. Saying that NYC will not get a single flake implies that you are disagreeing with the Euro, UKMET, GEFS, GFS, JMA, HPC, Euro ENS. etc. etc. etc. This idea is bullish on the other side of the spectrum IMO. It is about as valid as JB's idea that 1-3" of snow with lollies to 5" will occur from DE to MA. If you get a CCB over NJ and NYC, of course you can see a changeover. It might not accumulate, but that's not to say that it won't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The city will be in the mid to upper 40s during the day on Saturday with periods of moderate rain, maybe some snow will mix in to our friends North and West but for the areas closer to the coast, its just a raw october day. High point NJ can maybe eek out a a few inches of snow if everything comes together just right. Well , first of all, the euro during the best part of the storm has the freezing line going through Orange County and 534 thicnkesses through NYC. 850's are super cold for this time of year. Even the City is down to 35/36 so the friends to the N and W who likely dont consider you a friend are gonna see more than some snow mixing in and could accumulate if all goes right. The accumulating line could be as close to NYC as New Rochelle, Bronxville, maybe even the northern bronx. The city is what it is, a UHI, but even for them with those dynamics they will see snow at some point, not accumulating but snow nonetheless. They are also getting a "cold flow" down the hudson valley which could help to flip them over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 1319715055[/url]' post='1063722']yes they now bring more rain saturday then the models were showing on Wed. Did you read uptons overnight AFD, everything is well explained. The euro, ukie and camp 100% have heavy wet snow for even the city at one point.Does not mean it will accumulate!No one is expecting accumulating snow in the city but a period of heavy, wet snow is possible.Even HPC agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 cool site, saw this on JB post, guess I was in the dark with this one http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well , first of all, the euro during the best part of the storm has the freezing line going through Orange County and 534 thicnkesses through NYC. 850's are super cold for this time of year. Even the City is down to 35/36 so the friends to the N and W who likely dont consider you a friend are gonna see more than some snow mixing in and could accumulate if all goes right. The accumulating line could be as close to NYC as New Rochelle, Bronxville, maybe even the northern bronx. The city is what it is, a UHI, but even for them with those dynamics they will see snow at some point, not accumulating but snow nonetheless. They are also getting a "cold flow" down the hudson valley which could help to flip them over. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well , first of all, the euro during the best part of the storm has the freezing line going through Orange County and 534 thicnkesses through NYC. 850's are super cold for this time of year. Even the City is down to 35/36 so the friends to the N and W who likely dont consider you a friend are gonna see more than some snow mixing in and could accumulate if all goes right. The accumulating line could be as close to NYC as New Rochelle, Bronxville, maybe even the northern bronx. The city is what it is, a UHI, but even for them with those dynamics they will see snow at some point, not accumulating but snow nonetheless. They are also getting a "cold flow" down the hudson valley which could help to flip them over. This could be very much like the 12/9/05 event, albeit a totally diifferent synoptic setup, but the snow gradient going from several inches to nothing may be similar with a shift about 20-30 miles NW of where it was in that event. Its possible there could be 4 inches in Yonkers and nothing at Yankee stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This could be very much like the 12/9/05 event, albeit a totally diifferent synoptic setup, but the snow gradient going from several inches to nothing may be similar with a shift about 20-30 miles NW of where it was in that event. Its possible there could be 4 inches in Yonkers and nothing at Yankee stadium. Agree Goose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lol which part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Five minutes before I saw this map, I would have given Central Park a 10% chance to see one inch of snow Saturday. Obviously, HPC is more bullish. Bump for Noreaster27. From the fine weenies at HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB has 3-6 for most of the area with lollies to 10--says tree damage may be as bad as Irene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The euro, ukie and camp 100% have heavy wet snow for even the city at one point.Does not mean it will accumulate!No one is expecting accumulating snow in the city but a period of heavy, wet snow is possible.Even HPC agrees. Im going to westpoint on Saturday, I dont expect much if any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 according to the 6Z GFS at 250 mb, the tristate is an area of extreme gradient with regard to the placement of the jet stream... winds go from ripping fast to a modest pace.. what the tells me is the net result could be a void of in the atmosphere, in which case we could get some good lift over our area.. not to mention.. 500 mb has a ton of divergent flow just north of that intense vortmax which could aid in large scale synoptic forcing... It looks like good lifting mechnanisms in the upper levels even if the surface feature appears rather east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Im going to westpoint on Saturday, I dont expect much if any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The city will be in the mid to upper 40s during the day on Saturday with periods of moderate rain, maybe some snow will mix in to our friends North and West but for the areas closer to the coast, its just a raw october day. High point NJ can maybe eek out a a few inches of snow if everything comes together just right. Mid to upper 40s?! Seriously? Can you please show me one piece of data that's less than 18 hours old that shows this? Unless by "the city" you are referring to Washington, DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mid to upper 40s?! Seriously? Can you please show me one piece of data that's less than 18 hours old that shows this? Unless by "the city" you are referring to Washington, DC? Lets just see what happens on Saturday, im not going to fight and argue...especially this early in the season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow, just incredible. I slept through most of the models last night but this is an awesome treat to wake up to. Unbelievable that we could have accumulations down to areas near the coast (still not convinced about urban NYC) this early in the year. Places well up in elevation (maybe 1000' or so) could see something like 8, 10" if not more, and places further down but away from the coast could get a few inches on grass. If it could happen at Rutgers 3 years ago, I don't see how it couldn't happen this time in a more intense storm. Too bad it's not a month later, or else this would easily be your 12-18"+ kind of blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lets just see what happens on Saturday, im not going to fight and argue...especially this early in the season lol. We should make a deal. If NYC does not hit 40 *DURING THE DAY* on Saturday, excluding a midnight reading, you should not post your "forecasts" in this thread anymore this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Question: I has only snowed in NYC in October 18 times since record keeping began. Where can I find which years those were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Question: I has only snowed in NYC in October 18 times since record keeping began. Where can I find which years those were? www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx Go to climate, local, down to snowfall, monthly & annual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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