supermeh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 trough looks further west and a lot more northern stream energy coming down the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 yea, it's an improvement, but nothing spectacular.. It was extremely flat looking at 6Z and now, at least, the nothern stream is somewhat amplfied, but it's basically just a progressive neutral based trof.. nothing to prevent it from advecting eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 300mb jet pattern is definitely improved at 90 hr to my eyes. not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 the fact that it even showed a storm somewhere and that it almost looks like it wanted to try to phase with the southern stream is a dramatic improvement, so I would consider this a good run.. hopefully trend is our friend it doesn't flip flop all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 the fact that it even showed a storm somewhere and that it almost looks like it wanted to try to phase with the southern stream is a dramatic improvement, so I would consider this a good run.. hopefully trend is our friend it doesn't flip flop all over the place. lol, the funny part is that we all know what's coming with the euro in 2 hours. nobody wants to be the first one to say it though. with the first storm coming into focus, congrats nzucker at his new place. my official forecast for his area calls for snow accumulation halfway up his tube socks. so roughly 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 yea, it's an improvement, but nothing spectacular.. It was extremely flat looking at 6Z and now, at least, the nothern stream is somewhat amplfied, but it's basically just a progressive neutral based trof.. nothing to prevent it from advecting eastward. It's the gfs, I'm gonna take it with a grain of salt till it shows me something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 lol, the funny part is that we all know what's coming with the euro in 2 hours. nobody wants to be the first one to say it though. with the first storm coming into focus, congrats nzucker at his new place. my official forecast for his area calls for snow accumulation halfway up his tube socks. so roughly 6 inches. LOL.. I saw in another thread.. I think it was in New England.. someone was calling him "SOCKS".. and as I scrolled down, I realized they were talking about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I am by no means sold on the euro and clearly its a 1 in a million shot but just last week the gfs had the entire area less than .25 inches of rain an hour before the storm started, most received between .75 and 1.25. It's got a well known bais of flattening out vorts and being too dominant with the northern stream. And even if the euro sh^ts the bad today at 12z, that means nothing as expecting it to be consistent on every run if unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's the gfs, I'm gonna take it with a grain of salt till it shows me something. interesting technique. polar opposite of the anthony method, which is post every model on the globe until one of them shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 interesting technique. polar opposite of the anthony method, which is post every model on the globe until one of them shows snow. gfs has its moments, but they are few and far between. Until this model has an initialization scheme that can compete with the euro, its still the same old GFS regardless of how many upgrades they give it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ill enjoy the fact that it even has the storm at the surface right now and consider that a victory. This is the same model that had December 26 2010 as a weak wave on a coastal front for 2 days leading up to the event after showing a blizzard for a week when the system wast 160-280 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ill enjoy the fact that it even has the storm at the surface right now and consider that a victory. This is the same model that had December 26 2010 as a weak wave on a coastal front for 2 days leading up to the event after showing a blizzard for a week when the system wast 160-280 hrs away. yeah, and the gfs didn't have 1/11 even while it was snowing, and the gfs had Irene hitting eastern LI when the euro had the track down to the mile going right over metfans cvs four days out. Euro actually had the 12/26 storm perfect at 84 hours before losing it. They all suck at some point, but overall the gfs sucks way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 i deleted my post before, i was looking at the wrong storm lol http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_6z/f90.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f84.gif good changes, i would not be quick to say that the euro would show a dud when the gfs is slowly crawling back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 i deleted my post before, i was looking at the wrong storm lol http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_6z/f90.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f84.gif good changes, i would not be quick to say that the euro would show a dud when the gfs is slowly crawling back The differences at 500mb are dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z GGEM is also a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z GGEM is also a miss and only slightly better than the NOGAPS in 500mb verification. RGEM is the only good thing to come out of Canada, and even that model can be very silly outside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The UKIE lost the storm. It was the Euro's ally. Not anymore. Euro completely on its own now (at least until it's 12z run): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It is funny that you mention that because I was just thinking the same thing and was going to post something similar. I have watched this model ever since there has been the Internet and it has almost always done better a week out than in the 3-6 day range. I have countless times seen this model have storms from 1 to 2 weeks out, then lose them from 3-6 days out, then pick them up at 3 days. Ill enjoy the fact that it even has the storm at the surface right now and consider that a victory. This is the same model that had December 26 2010 as a weak wave on a coastal front for 2 days leading up to the event after showing a blizzard for a week when the system wast 160-280 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 2nd storm seems very suspect given how progressive the flow is with no blocking, said this a few days ago. First storm looks to bring snow to the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well, this makes me nervous, but I am still a Euro hugger. Have to wait another hour. It also had the blizzard out to sea last year. The UKIE lost the storm. It was the Euro's ally. Not anymore. Euro completely on its own now (at least until it's 12z run): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not much mention of the solid west based NAO signal that is retrograding/weakening over the time period of this first storm through the weekend threat. So I believe there is support for a storm like the euro shows in the over all pattern. Going against it is that kicker wave flattening out the ridging out west, but the wavelengths are still pretty short this time of year so perhaps the wave can still dig like the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 2nd storm seems very suspect given how progressive the flow is with no blocking, said this a few days ago. First storm looks to bring snow to the upstate. So what are you thinking, 3-6 flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 2nd storm seems very suspect given how progressive the flow is with no blocking, said this a few days ago. First storm looks to bring snow to the upstate. There is blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not much mention of the solid west based NAO signal that is retrograding/weakening over the time period of this first storm through the weekend threat. So I believe there is support for a storm like the euro shows in the over all pattern. Going against it is that kicker wave flattening out the ridging out west, but the wavelengths are still pretty short this time of year so perhaps the wave can still dig like the euro shows. Mentioned it a bit last night--it's a generally smaller and more compact west based NAO but the positive height anomalies stand out pretty well for this time year. All of this is timed so precariously, too...makes you wonder if it just might work out to come closer to the coast. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not much mention of the solid west based NAO signal that is retrograding/weakening over the time period of this first storm through the weekend threat. So I believe there is support for a storm like the euro shows in the over all pattern. Going against it is that kicker wave flattening out the ridging out west, but the wavelengths are still pretty short this time of year so perhaps the wave can still dig like the euro shows. I made several posts on it yesterday in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 There is blocking. very slight positive hight anamolies around the davis straight, not doing much to slow down the flow over the northeast, at least on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 very slight positive hight anamolies around the davis straight, not doing much to slow down the flow over the northeast, at least on the GFS And the GFS is biased towards having a much faster, Northern-stream dominated flow than reality- always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 why do you have a met tag? This will be the only warning...this type of stuff isn't going to fly this year. Take it elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This will be the only warning...this type of stuff isn't going to fly this year. Take it elsewhere. Why am I getting a warning when he was the one posting about the GFS in the 300-hour range? Are you serious? If anything 'shouldn't fly' it's the BS comments that derail threads--aka, anything relating to the GFS post-truncation (even post 96 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Why am I getting a warning when he was the one posting about the GFS in the 300-hour range? Are you serious? If anything 'shouldn't fly' it's the BS comments that derail threads--aka, anything relating to the GFS post-truncation (even post 96 hours). You're getting a warning because you took it to a new level by insulting him within the thread. If you have a problem with his post, report it, or PM him about it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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